Prospect Info: 2019 40th overall: Vancouver selects Nils Höglander (LW, Rögle BK)

[Motte and Bailey]

I don't even know where to start...where do you get these percentages? You do realize there is a chance none of Podkolzin, Madden and Lind become NHLers and a decent chance none of them become top-6 players; yet you have the three listed as having 100% chance of becoming a top a 6 player accumulatively (1/3 are guaranteed to be top-6) and you call that conservative?

The percentages come from reality. I explained it in my post already. Benning’s record with 1st rounders is the basis of Pod’s 66%. The 17% figure came from A LOT of rounding down. Each 2nd round pick has a 42% chance of turning into an NHLer per TSN so rounding it down to less than half that at 17% for those picks to make the NHL and exceed expectations is reasonable and conservative. Madden was a 3rd round pick so I guess if you wanted to nitpick he could be at 13-14% rather than 17% because 3rd rounders have a 31% chance to make the NHL but I kept all the non first rounders at 17 for simplicity.

Edit: and yes I’m aware that those percentages aren’t guarantees but they are only meant to represent our best approximations.

 

[BoHorvat 53]

The percentages come from reality. I explained it in my post already. Benning’s record with 1st rounders is the basis of Pod’s 66%. The 17% figure came from A LOT of rounding down. Each 2nd round pick has a 42% chance of turning into an NHLer per TSN so rounding it down to less than half that at 17% for those picks to make the NHL and exceed expectations is reasonable and conservative. Madden was a 3rd round pick so I guess if you wanted to nitpick he could be at 13-14% rather than 17% because 3rd rounders have a 31% chance to make the NHL but I kept all the non first rounders at 17 for simplicity.

Edit: and yes I’m aware that those percentages aren’t guarantees but they are only meant to represent our best approximations.

Those TSN percentages are to make the NHL in any capacity - not as top-6 players.

With that being said, it is not sound logical thinking to think that because Pettersson, Boeser and Hughes have been hits while Juolevi and Virtanen have been busts, that Podkolzin has a 66% chance of being a hit. Every pick is an individual pick; Pettersson being the stud he is has no effect on Hughes having a higher chance of booming, and he has no effect on Juolevi busting. Those percentages are the most ridiculous thing I've seen in a good minute.

 

[ChilliBilly]

Obviously you haven’t taken a statistics course you can’t just add percentages like that. For example if the numbers been slightly higher you would’ve added them up to say 110% which is clearly impossible.

 

[4Twenty]

Hilarious

 

[Melvin]

Do I logout to laugh at whatever nonsense you guys are talking about or do I sit here in bliss? Hmmm.

FWIW, 66% does seem about right for a 10th overall in terms of the aggregate. Not really sure what this has to do with Hoglander. 40th overall is something like 35-40%

 

[RobertKron]

Why are people replying to this?

 

[VanJack]

Still a head-scratcher how this kid wasn't a first rounder or even picked in the top 40. As Brackett pointed out on draft day, he's not 'small' just 'short'....currently playing at 180-190 pounds....and no problem with the physicality of pro hockey so far.....and that skill-set...just wow!

Can't wait to see him in the WJC and then in NA.

 

[zcaptain]

Marcel Dionne

Forward
Born Aug 3 1951 -- Drummondville, PQ
[68 yrs. ago]
Height 5.08 -- Weight 185 [173 cm/84 kg]
Drafted by Detroit Red Wings
- round 1 #2 overall 1971 NHL Amateur Draft

NHL Totals

1348 Games

731 Goals

1040 Assists

1771 Points

600

49

21

2 7​ 4

45

1

[TFOOT] [/TFOOT]

 

[ChilliBilly]

Marcel Dionne

Forward
Born Aug 3 1951 -- Drummondville, PQ
[68 yrs. ago]
Height 5.08 -- Weight 185 [173 cm/84 kg]
Drafted by Detroit Red Wings
- round 1 #2 overall 1971 NHL Amateur Draft

NHL Totals

1348 Games

731 Goals

1040 Assists

1771 Points

600

49

21

2 7​ 4

45

1

[TFOOT] [/TFOOT]

Maybe a tad optimistic as a comparison but I like your attitude

 

[canuckking1]

scores the 2nd and 5th goal Number 21

 

[WTG]

 

[M2Beezy]

Man I love this prospect

 

[WTG]

 

[Bertuzzzi44]

He’s going to be a star in the NHL, very high IQ & Elite skill. EP & Hoglander are going to be insane together.

 

[y2kcanucks]

The percentages come from reality. I explained it in my post already. Benning’s record with 1st rounders is the basis of Pod’s 66%. The 17% figure came from A LOT of rounding down. Each 2nd round pick has a 42% chance of turning into an NHLer per TSN so rounding it down to less than half that at 17% for those picks to make the NHL and exceed expectations is reasonable and conservative. Madden was a 3rd round pick so I guess if you wanted to nitpick he could be at 13-14% rather than 17% because 3rd rounders have a 31% chance to make the NHL but I kept all the non first rounders at 17 for simplicity.

Edit: and yes I’m aware that those percentages aren’t guarantees but they are only meant to represent our best approximations.

If they aren’t guarantees then you don’t know what 100% means.

 

[Canadian Canuck]

What a steal of a pick. And no it’s not too early to say that. Pure top 6 talent.

 

[WetcoastOrca]

And it’s not just the goal. He’s been noticeable all over the place.

 

[BenningHurtsMySoul]

Get him over here and staple him to Pettersson. Could be our new Dynamic Duo for years to come.

Add Podkolzin with Horvat and Boeser.

 

[Star Ocean]

And it’s not just the goal. He’s been noticeable all over the place.

He is swedens best forward. Havent even noticed fagemo.

 

[Canadian Canuck]

Get him over here and staple him to Pettersson. Could be our new Dynamic Duo for years to come.

Add Podkolzin with Horvat and Boeser.

Podkolzin is a RW and way better there than LW.

Hoglander-Pettersson-Boeser
Miller-Horvat-Podkolzin

 

[Billy Kvcmu]

Best forward for Sweden this far

 

[Hansen]

This is such a gorgeous example of a lacrosse goal

Look where he is when he picks the puck up on his stick, he is on the goal line to the right of the net, he then cradles it around the entire back of the net and puts it top corner on the opposite side, all in one motion

Its pretty absurd when you think about it and the speed he did that at, how do you defend that as a player?

 

[CherryToke]

He's a little pain in the ass out there

 

[Knight53]

If he can improve his seperation speed can't see how he's not a NHLer

Reminds me of Jesper Bratt. Crazy talented.

 

[Ainec]

Jesussss