30 goals for William Karlsson. Over or under.

[shelf]

Will Karlsson score over or under 30.

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[ayrton2388]

I said under , because i think it's gonna be somewhere between 25-30 goals range.

 

[snu22fint]

I would say he scores around 35. So over

 

[Spirit of 67]

Gotta prove it wasn't a fluke.

 

[pheasant]

Gotta prove it wasn't a fluke.

Well, to be fair, he did hit 43 goals last season. So 30 would still be a hefty regression. He had a crazy high shooting percentage, like second in the league at .23 percent. But even if he dips back to a more sustainable range, like .16 percent, he would still be a 30 goal guy with his 180+ shots.

Even if the 43 goal season was a fluke, he could still be a 30 goal scorer.

 

[Spirit of 67]

Well, to be fair, he did hit 43 goals last season. So 30 would still be a hefty regression. He had a crazy high shooting percentage, like second in the league at .23 percent. But even if he dips back to a more sustainable range, like .16 percent, he would still be a 30 goal guy with his 180+ shots.

Even if the 43 goal season was a fluke, he could still be a 30 goal scorer.

Ya he could.

Here's the thing though, if you look at his stats throughout his life, 30 goals would be considered a fluke.
So either it will go down as one of the oddest outliers in hockey history or something has clicked for him and he can now score.
But he has to prove the latter to get an over from me. So if he scores 27 this season and the same poll comes up next year, I'll give him the benefit of the doubt and say over. If he drops to 15 then I'd be convinced it was a one time spike

Edit: Bolded. 20 goals should be 30

 

[The Burdened]

I'll say 34, so over.
Do think there will be slight regression, but he's a gem of a player.

 

[pheasant]

Ya he could.

Here's the thing though, if you look at his stats throughout his life, 20 goals would be considered a fluke.
So either it will go down as one of the oddest outliers in hockey history or something has clicked for him and he can now score.
But he has to prove the latter to get an over from me. So if he scores 27 this season and the same poll comes up next year, I'll give him the benefit of the doubt and say over. If he drops to 15 then I'd be convinced it was a one time spike

That's a pretty good argument. You win this round.

 

[Spirit of 67]

That's a pretty good argument. You win this round.

Thanks.

1 - 0

 

[Uncle Scrooge]

Here's the thing though, if you look at his stats throughout his life, 20 goals would be considered a fluke.

I think the circumstances in Vegas are so different compared to previous years that i find his past stats irrelevant at this point. Playing 13-14 minutes in the bottom 6 without any PP time makes scoring 20 goals a tough task for anyone. Big difference to being the 1C, playing on the top PP unit and having skilled players to play with.

Personally looking into last year and making projections based on that is going to be much more accurate. He had the best shooting pct in the NHL for any top 6 player. 23.4 shooting pct is out of this world and will come down even if he chooses his shots carefully. But at the same time, he met the eye test for me in terms of being legitimately a very good player, and he's going to have the same surroundings to produce.

I think natural regression with the SH%, pressure that comes with expectations and Vegas having a target on their back will lead to his numbers coming down, but despite that i would say i saw enough that 30 goals is definitely possible for Karlsson.

Probably settles between 25-35 so this poll is a 50/50 for me.

 

[VoluntaryDom]

He’ll be around 30. I’ll predict 28.

 

[DrJustice]

Unless he is getting traded back to the Blue Jackets I don't see how much of his situation has changed.

Even with a lower shooting percentage I say he get's over 30.

 

[Unspecified]

Well, to be fair, he did hit 43 goals last season. So 30 would still be a hefty regression. He had a crazy high shooting percentage, like second in the league at .23 percent. But even if he dips back to a more sustainable range, like .16 percent, he would still be a 30 goal guy with his 180+ shots.

Even if the 43 goal season was a fluke, he could still be a 30 goal scorer.

However before the 43 goal output his high was 9 followed by a season with 6. So to assume he drops below 30 is not out of the realm of a high possibility.

 

[Aceboogie]

Under. by a lot. 15 goals this year. Bookmark this

 

[DRW204]

I think he will be around 27-33, wouldnt be surprised at 30+. Ill take the over. The innate chemistry that Marchessault-Wild Bill-Smith have keep their floors pretty high

I think it is a bit unfair to use his CBJ stats to compare his VGK stats and expect that significant of a drop imo. He wasn't playing on the PP in CBJ, he was averaging 13 mins/night in a a defensive/PK role and his linemates were pretty questionable. His situations in CBJ and VGK are no where near the same.

His goal heat maps are similar to AM34's and Anders Lee, lot of goals come in front of the net and in the slot. In addition, they're often off turnovers he or his team creates into odd man rushes/scoring opps. If he continues to be able to get to the high % areas to score and plays at an elite defensive role to create scoring opportunities off turnovers i expect 30ish goals again

 

[CupInSIX]

I think Marchessault will do the bulk of the scoring on that line this year, and Karlsson will change it up by racking up assists. I'm going under. Maybe 28 or so.

 

[Paris in Flames]

Exactly 26 goals.

See y'all back here at the end of the season.

 

[tony d]

Over. 36

 

[WetcoastOrca]

Over. Easily.

 

[Randy Randerson]

25-30, it would be 27 at his career average shooting % with the same number of shots generated, and that career average was dragged up drastically by last year

 

[Cleatus]

Over. Last year was no fluke, 36 goals is my prediction.