GDT: 3/14/18

[CantLoseWithMatthews]

Thank god the game is played on an excel spreadsheet

why do people act like shots and scoring chances are made up math, as opposed to real hockey events that actually happen?

 

[WingsMJN2965]

Happy to help!

Neither does trading a 1st round pick for Kyle Quincey.......

To Tampa:

 

[JadedLeaf]

I am glad the leafs fought back! Any update on Anderson?

Someone on the Leafs board might have an update but knowing Lou, probably not. Just an upper body injury reported so far.

 

[Machinehead]

There is more to just winning than the corsi battle.

We can track regular season shot differential going back to 1992-93.

21 of the 24 Cup winners were in the top 10. Exactly one had a negative differential.

Obviously, there's more to it than corsi. You don't just hand the #1 ranked CF% team the Cup. But if you're awful at it, you're putting yourself on an endangered species list.

 

[Machinehead]

why do people act like shots and scoring chances are made up math, as opposed to real hockey events that actually happen?

I could see the "spreadsheet" comments if we were talking about a scale like K-rating or an index like Wins Above Replacement.

Corsi is literally counting. It's not any more "analytics" than goals are.

I also don't see why it's such a bizarre suggestion that teams who get outshot generally don't win Cups.

 

[GlitchMarner]

We can track regular season shot differential going back to 1992-93.

21 of the 24 Cup winners were in the top 10. Exactly one had a negative differential.

Just out of curiosity, who was that one team?

 

[SladeWilson23]

We can track regular season shot differential going back to 1992-93.

21 of the 24 Cup winners were in the top 10. Exactly one had a negative differential.

Obviously, there's more to it than corsi. You don't just hand the #1 ranked CF% team the Cup. But if you're awful at it, you're putting yourself on an endangered species list.

You shouldn't look at it that simplistically. Using top 10 is WAYYYY too big of a data range. Also the rankings in CF% is so tight that the gap between the 10thish team and like the 19thish team is tiny. This season there's 9 teams that are in the 51% range alone.

What's the record for top 5 Corsi teams?

 

[SladeWilson23]

Just out of curiosity, who was that one team?

Boston in 2011 or Pittsburgh in 2009 would be my guess.

 

[Machinehead]

Just out of curiosity, who was that one team?

2009 Pens.

 

[Machinehead]

You shouldn't look at it that simplistically. Using top 10 is WAYYYY too big of a data range. Also the rankings in CF% is so tight that the gap between the 10thish team and like the 19thish team is tiny. This season there's 9 teams that are in the 51% range alone.

What's the record for top 5 Corsi teams?

15 of 24 were top 5.

The more important point is, it was done once with a negative differential. I don't think 1 out of 24 is looking at it too simplistically.

1 out of 24 means it doesn't work.

 

[CantLoseWithMatthews]

I could see the "spreadsheet" comments if we were talking about a scale like K-rating or an index like Wins Above Replacement.

Corsi is literally counting. It's not any more "analytics" than goals are.

I also don't see why it's such a bizarre suggestion that teams who get outshot generally don't win Cups.

you want to track goals now?? Sorry, hockey isn't played on a computer, old timer

As far as corsi goes, the biggest complaint was that it didn't take shot quality into account. Now that we have xgf and track high danger chances, they're either too subjective or too complicated to be important. There's no winning, which is really weird because all it is is additional information

 

[Machinehead]

Also, I like how I went from defending the Rangers the last few weeks, who are 31st in CF%, to defending CF%.

Look what you make me do HF.

Granted, I'm never going to defend the 17-18 Rangers in the grand scheme of things, but I like what our young players are doing.

 

[Oilers Propagandist]

Dude's been MIA lately, I mean compare the output during the Leafs last 10 games to Lainec's last 10, it's ridiculous, Mats is a good ol 0-0-0 and Lainec has pretty much broken every NHL record in the book.

Maybe Montreal will trade us Shaw for him (we could use some more character).

Lainec is very subtle, smoothe and very smart. Love it lmfao

 

[SladeWilson23]

15 of 24 were top 5.

The more important point is, it was done once with a negative differential. I don't think 1 out of 24 is looking at it too simplistically.

1 out of 24 means it doesn't work.

It is looking at it too simplistically when you focus solely on the final rankings. In some cases a simple change in coaching philosophy can greatly alter a team's corsi. Possession numbers still have a wide array of factors that play into it.

 

[Oilers Propagandist]

Geno can't score when there's a goalie in the net XD

Lainec.

 

[ANDI P IS CUTE]

Yea real good against a team playing 3 in 4 and not able to change.. lmfao

missing our best player, playing our back up lmao.

 

[Chainshot]

Larsson should have gotten a call there.

 

[Machinehead]

It is looking at it too simplistically when you focus solely on the final rankings. In some cases a simple change in coaching philosophy can greatly alter a team's corsi. Possession numbers still have a wide array of factors that play into it.

Which would explain the 2009 Pens who changed coaches and were consistently a top 5 CF% the 3-4 years after Bylsma came in. Not that Bylsma is any genius but Therien is in AV's class as far as corsi goes. I don't disagree.

But in this case, we're not talking about a team that's changed coaches and been near the top since the change. We're talking about a team with the same coach.

 

[Machinehead]

Lainec is very subtle, smoothe and very smart. Love it lmfao

Agreed.

A+ nickname.

 

[GlitchMarner]

Come on, Hall...

Is he on a pointless streak now?

 

[snipes]

What a save by Jones

 

[Mez]

What a save by Jones

Too bad Strome couldnt one time that.

 

[CantLoseWithMatthews]

Also, I like how I went from defending the Rangers the last few weeks, who are 31st in CF%, to defending CF%.

Look what you make me do HF.

Granted, I'm never going to defend the 17-18 Rangers in the grand scheme of things, but I like what our young players are doing.

Rangers have an underrated future in my opinion. Gonna need some luck, but there are definitely some real pieces that can be built around by the right management

 

[snipes]

Too bad Strome couldnt one time that.

And the Sharks end up winning it.

That kind of year.

 

[Emperoreddy]

Nico with an all world shift on GRabner's first goal as a Devil