Player Discussion Casey Mittelstadt (2017, 8th) - Signed, #37 - Part II

[Club]

https://hfboards.mandatory.com/threads/casey-mittelstadt-2017-8th-signed-37.2361551/

Part 1 ^

Continued here.

Click to read more...

 

[La Cosa Nostra]

Outside of Jack and Risto I haven't been this excited about a Sabres draft pick since Ryan Miller circa 2001. You don't trade a high end 60 point 2C unless you fully believe your replacement prospect is up to the challenge.

I fully expect 20-30-50 as Caseys #s this year. Depending on how many goals Svech gets, or if Dahlin hits 40 points he has a possible good chance at a Calder. I'm almost assuredly thinking a Calder nomination at the very least. But if Dahlin puts up 40+ points as a true rookie at 18 and if there isn't a forward who puts up 60+ points then Dahlin would be the Calder winner. Anyway, back to Casey...


There is just something about his style of play that excites me. In a way, he is like a 2009-2010 version of Tyler Ennis times two. He's even more shifty, faster, creative and talented. In fact, by the end of Caseys ELC in 2020, I anticipate Casey is the second most valuable forward in the organization. I think Casey can very well top out as a 70 point center with the versatility to go on the wing.

And when we need a goal, I cannot wait to see a Mittelstadt-Eichel-Reinhart Dahlin-Risto combo thrown out on the ice in a tie game or down by one with just a few minutes left and see what they can do. That is one thing the Sabres haven't done with any regularity since Eichel came aboard is stack the top line. We never saw a Kane-RoR-Eichel or RoR-Eichel-Okposo line for any significant amount of games.

I get the whole spread apart your scoring throughout your top 3 lines but I think Housley has to take advantage of the natural talent and speed Casey and Jack possess and you have to play them together for a bit, even if they are our top 2 Cs. That's what Berglund, Reinhart etc are there for, if we roll out a top line of Mittelstadt-Eichel-X we have a few options to play at 2C with Reinhart and Berglund. Obviously it's a bit of a drop off from Casey at 2C (especially if it's Berglund) but I think this team needs to try it's hand by just throwing out your 3 best forwards and 2 best dman all at the same time and see how it matches up against the best of the best the league has to offer.

So long story short, I am extremely excited and eager to see Casey play a full season with us. There shouldn't be a single lineup projection post made in this forum the rest of the summer that doesn't include Casey full time. He was a big reason why RoR was dealt, among other things. If the Sabres didn't believe he was capable of putting up top 6 production at the least (45+ points) then I doubt they would have dealt him. But when you can turn 1 very very good player into 3 decent ones along with the opportunity the opening gives our elite center prospect then that's a great move to make on such a weak team with zero depth.

Casey is going to be a damn good player. 70-75 point seasons in his prime with a couple seasons where he will flirt with ~80+ points. He is almost out of his teens and turns 20 at Thanksgiving. He is definitely old enough to come right in and make an impact. 50 points this year, ~55-60 points in year 3 of his ELC, if the cba is unchanged then you give Casey the 8/50 type deal and then you should be extremely content knowing you have your superstar center and your budding 60-70+ point 2C locked up for half a decade together for ~$16 mil combined which is only 20% of the current cap TODAY, in 2020 when Casey is actually entering the first year of his new deal the cap will likely be in the mid to upper 80s so $16 mil/15-18% of the cap for your two best forwards who will likely combine for 150+ points and 60+ goals between the two of them.


The future is bright boys. With Jack, Reinhart, Casey, TT, Sheary, Dahlin, Risto, Nylander, Guhle, Samuelsson, Asplund, Davidsson, ERod, Ullmark and THREE 2019 1st round picks we are starting to build a damn good 26 and under corps. Once we get Bogo, Moulson, Poms and (hopefully) Okposos contracts off the books over the next 2 seasons we will be looking damn good. I have confidence that the Buffalo Sabres can lift the Stanley Cup one day in the not that distant future.

 

[Obvious Fabertism]

Really excited to see him grow as a player his rookie year. I think there will be some growing pains but think he will be one of the most exciting players to watch in the league within 3 years. Guessing it will be a datsyuk projection, takes a little bit to learn player tendencies and then exploit them for the rest of his career, his ability to chain dekes and play mind games with defenders is unreal, only a matter of getting his feet wet and learning. Foresee him and Dahlin combining for some highlight real goals over the coming years!

 

[Sabre the Win]

Looking forward to Middlestadt becoming a star and buying this kids jersey.

Love his game, I am fully rooting for this kid.

Dahlin and Middlestadt royal blue 50th anniversary jerseys I am hoping to buy.

 

[Icicle]

I like Casey but i guess I’m not as high on him as some people are. Would be glad to be proven wrong.

 

[darcyRegier]

If he "only" ends up as a 50-60 2C that's a steal at 8th overall. My money's on him being much better than that

 

[Obvious Fabertism]

I grew up playing with nick leddy, against jake gardiner, and anders lee. Have been a gopher STH since the 90’s, Casey is the most skilled puck handler and offensively initelligent player that I have seen come out of the state of hockey besides Vanek at the U. Kessel had the tools too but very different players. If CM continues on his growth path I could see him going down as the best MN fwd of the generation, at least the most entertaing.

In other weird opinions, Dahlin actually reminds me a ton of watching Alex goligoski at college, watching him read a breakout up close at that level was a work of art, RD obviously has the superior physical tools but you can jut see the mental game at work with a player like him and know that he will be incredible.

 

[jc17]

[MOD]. No one said him producing that much would make the Sabres a much better team or vault the team to the playoffs, just that if he hits those numbers he could have been a steal.

 

[truthbluth]

Yeah, just in case you forgot, in the wake of a tumultuous off season, winning Dahlin, the weird 6th rd pick trade, O’Reilly trade rumors, O’Reilly trade value debates, and Bogo-Feuds:

Mittelstadt is good:

 

[Gabrielor]

I grew up playing with nick leddy, against jake gardiner, and anders lee. Have been a gopher STH since the 90’s, Casey is the most skilled puck handler and offensively initelligent player that I have seen come out of the state of hockey besides Vanek at the U. Kessel had the tools too but very different players. If CM continues on his growth path I could see him going down as the best MN fwd of the generation, at least the most entertaing.

In other weird opinions, Dahlin actually reminds me a ton of watching Alex goligoski at college, watching him read a breakout up close at that level was a work of art, RD obviously has the superior physical tools but you can jut see the mental game at work with a player like him and know that he will be incredible.

Pretty sweet background

 

[debaser66]

If he "only" ends up as a 50-60 2C that's a steal at 8th overall. My money's on him being much better than that

A mid/late 1st pick with 2C 50 points is a steal.. early first round picks should be expected to have this kind of attributes.

 

[Sabre Dance]

Right? I mentioned we had a 50-60 point 2C that wasn't good enough for this team from many fans and posters; and he was a 2nd round pick to boot.

It wasn't working with O'Reilly for whatever reason. 50-60 points isn't always the same. If Mitts does his scoring at even strength it will be an improvement.

 

[jc17]

I still don't get why O'Reilly is even part of this conversation. Can't we just be happy if Mittelstadt does well?

And historically picks 7-9 haven't exactly been locks for even 50-60 points.

Edit: Between 2004 and 2014 36 forwards have been picked within #6 and 10 of the first round.

They average .46 points a game or 37 points per season. I'd say Mittestadt getting 50-60 points his rookie year on a previously awful offensive team would be pretty significant.

 

[Sabre the Win]

It wasn't working with O'Reilly for whatever reason. 50-60 points isn't always the same. If Mitts does his scoring at even strength it will be an improvement.

Regardless of when he scores 60 points is still 60 points whether you get them even strength, penelty kill or on the powerplay.

I dont get that line of thought.

 

[haseoke39]

A mid/late 1st pick with 2C 50 points is a steal.. early first round picks should be expected to have this kind of attributes.

Not at all.

 

[valet]

A mid/late 1st pick with 2C 50 points is a steal.. early first round picks should be expected to have this kind of attributes.

that's not true........ it's usually only guys in the top 5 that put up those kind of rookie numbers, and a good deal of them don't do it

 

[La Cosa Nostra]

One of the ways I judge our top draft pick is if there was anyone clearly better taken in the immediate vicinity. Seeing that there isn't a single 2017 draftee taken after Casey that I would swap him for, I would say Botts deserves an A+ for the pick. You can make a very compelling argument that Mitts is a top 3 prospect from the 2017 draft. The only player you can definitively say is better is Hischier and Heiskanen is also probably worth a little bit more. But I doubt I would swap Mitts for Patrick. Same with Makar.

Mittelstadt is the new 2C and he will be employed in that spot for the next decade. It's exciting having such a creative, fast and shifty offensive dynamo on the team and he's only the 2C.....there are a few teams wishing they had a Mittelstadt to be their eventual 1C.

 

[5 Minute Major]

I grew up playing with nick leddy, against jake gardiner, and anders lee. Have been a gopher STH since the 90’s, Casey is the most skilled puck handler and offensively initelligent player that I have seen come out of the state of hockey besides Vanek at the U. Kessel had the tools too but very different players. If CM continues on his growth path I could see him going down as the best MN fwd of the generation, at least the most entertaing.

In other weird opinions, Dahlin actually reminds me a ton of watching Alex goligoski at college, watching him read a breakout up close at that level was a work of art, RD obviously has the superior physical tools but you can jut see the mental game at work with a player like him and know that he will be incredible.

Thanks for sharing that.

 

[BananaSquad]

It’s exciting Botts believes in this kid so much this year, Eichel - Mitts as our top 6 centres is so amazing, they have a chance to become one the east best 1-2 punch offensively for years to come.

 

[Sabre Dance]

Regardless of when he scores 60 points is still 60 points whether you get them even strength, penelty kill or on the powerplay.

I dont get that line of thought.

On this team it matters, we haven't been good at even strength.

 

[Sabre the Win]

On this team it matters, we haven't been good at even strength.

We would have complaints if we were good at even strength and couldn't score on the powerplay.

I'm not trying to argue with you but it's a fruitless point and one I could never take serious in the O'Reilly debates but let's get back to how awesome Middlestadt is gonna be.

I'm predicting 60-65 points or more. Yeah I am going in with huge optimism for out youngsters.

 

[missingmika]

A mid/late 1st pick with 2C 50 points is a steal.. early first round picks should be expected to have this kind of attributes.

You sir, do not know the NHL draft at all.

 

[Buttons85]

Just to level-set here... only 4 first rounders on the Sabres have ever put up 50 or more points in their rookie year.

And that's some pretty excellent company. So, yeah, if Casey does that, it is most definitely exceeding expectations. I would be extremely pumped.

 

[Snippit]

It’s exciting Botts believes in this kid so much this year, Eichel - Mitts as our top 6 centres is so amazing, they have a chance to become one the east best 1-2 punch offensively for years to come.

Or concerning about our GM. If Mitts isn't ready for the position then we're relying on Reinhart or a trade.

 

[darcyRegier]

Right? I mentioned we had a 50-60 point 2C that wasn't good enough for this team from many fans and posters; and he was a 2nd round pick to boot.

What does ROR and his draft position have to do with anything?

A mid/late 1st pick with 2C 50 points is a steal.. early first round picks should be expected to have this kind of attributes.

Last few years of centers drafted in the 5-10 range:

2016: Keller(65 point rookie year...steal at 7th OV)
2015: Zacha(24 points in 70 games in rookie year, 25 points in 69 games in sophomore year)
2014: Nylander(61 point rookie & sophomore years on Matthews' wing)
2013: Monohan(34, 62, 63, 58, 64 point seasons as a 1C with Gaudreau on his wing...amazing value at 7th OV), Horvat(25 in 68 , 40, 54, 44 in 64)

If Mitts tops out as a 50-60 point 2C...that's a steal at 8th OV. Especially considering that he probably won't have the quality of line mates that a lot of these guys have. I think he's going to be much better than a 60 point 2C though.