Salary Cap: '21-22 and '22-23 Cap Thread

[Bryanbryoil]

So we have some key UFA's coming up this offseason but also have the luxury of some quality young players stepping up. Because of the latter there could be some big paydays handed out in '22-23 as well.

'21-22 Key UFA's
RNH
Barrie

'21-22 Key RFA's
Yamamoto

'22-23 Key UFA's
Nurse

'22-23 Key RFA's
Puljujarvi
Bear

'23-24 Key RFA's
Bouchard
Broberg

As you can see we have a lot of quality players that will need to be paid and we may not be able to keep them all and we definitely can't afford to overpay a number of these guys so that we see the likes of Yamamoto, Pulju or Bouch walk in their primes because lesser players got paid.

What are the max contracts that you'd be willing to pay this year's UFA's and then Yamamoto and Nurse to keep $ available to lock up some of the others long term?

Click to read more...

 

[5 Mins 4 Ftg]

This will be an interesting thread....

 

[jeffff]

Paying the stars aren't the issue, its overpaying the lesser "role" players that gets us in trouble. I actually think we will be ok.

Having to choose between which good players to keep and which ones to trade or let walk is a fantastic postition to be in. We haven't had to make those difficult decisions for years.

 

[Canovin]

In 3-4 years we will have a lot of guys on ELCs. Blumel, Savoie. Lavoie, Holloway, Tullio, 2021-2023 1st round picks, etc to cushion the expensive guys.

Plus Neal, Russell, Chiasson, Larsson, Kassian contracts will be up to free up some much needed cap space

 

[belair]

XXXXXX - McDavid (12.5) - Puljujarvi (1.175)
XXXXXX - Draisaitl (8.5) - XXXXXX
XXXXXX - Turris (1.65) - Archibald (1.5)
Neal (5.75) - XXXXXX - Kassian (3.2)
XXXXXX - XXXXXX

Klefbom (4.1) - XXXXXX
Nurse (5.6) - Bear (2.0)
Lagesson (0.75) - Bouchard (0.863)
Russell (1.25)
Jones (0.85)

Koskinen (4.5)
XXXXXX

Sekera (1.5)
Lucic (0.75)

(56.438)

2021 RFAs: Yamamoto (0.892), Khaira (1.2)
Notable UFAs: Nugent-Hopkins (6.0), Barrie (3.75), Larsson (4.1), Chiasson (2.15), Kahun (0.975), Ennis (1.0)

 

[Captain Controversy]

I assume Kahun will be making 3 million next year.
Nuge will be making 5.5 to 6.5
Larsson will probably get 3.5
Barrie will get 4.5-5
Hall would command around 7 million
Need a goalie and a steady Dman.
Klefbom is LTIR'D
Neal will be LTIR'D in a year or so

 

[Bryanbryoil]

I assume Kahun will be making 3 million next year.
Nuge will be making 5.5 to 6.5
Larsson will probably get 3.5
Barrie will get 4.5-5
Hall would command around 7 million
Need a goalie and a steady Dman.
Klefbom is LTIR'D
Neal will be LTIR'D in a year or so

IMO Nuge and Barrie will be coming in higher than that (at least RNH's lower number anyway). I wish that we could sell RNH and Barrie on keeping their AAV's down to allow this team to become a winner. Sign both to $6 million AAV deals if possible.

 

[Bryanbryoil]

@Fourier what kind of cap hits do you think that we could sign RNH and Barrie to without screwing our future cap situation when it comes time to re-signing Pulju, Bouch, Yamo, etc.?

 

[Fourier]

@Fourier what kind of cap hits do you think that we could sign RNH and Barrie to without screwing our future cap situation when it comes time to re-signing Pulju, Bouch, Yamo, etc.?

For me the bigger issue is the next year or two. I have said this before but I think there will be a big jump in the cap (assuming covid goes away) by 2024-2025 at the very latest.

I think you could pay Nuge $7.5M and Barrie $5.5M without impacting the ability to resign those guys. Now that does not mean that they should spend $13.5M for those two. The first question for me is do you commit to Barrie. If the answer is yes, then I think if they are creative they could get Nuge and Barrie together for well under $12M. People might not like this but I think the way to go with both players is the long term route.

With Nuge I'd work on the premise of something like $7.6M x 5 plus $4.5M x 3 = 8 years at $6.4375M.

For Barrie, Id do something similar but shorter if they thought he was a long term solution:

$5.25 x3 plus $4M x 3 =$4.58M x 6

Both deal's structured to maximize take home pay.

With a flat cap thsoe numbers won't thrill many around here but if covid ends to the point where arenas can be filled I think by 2024-2025 we have a cap that could be conservatively $92M but also be $95M if thenew TV money comes in at the high end of the range of speculation.

At the low end in today's dollar equivalents with a $92M cap this would be like Nuge at $5.67M and Barrie at $4.06M. At the high end it would be like Nuge at $5.5M and Barrie at $3.93M. So in effect they would have roughly the same porton of the cap by 2024-2025 as they do now.

TO put this in perspective assuming a cap over $92M Nuge's salary would be consistent with that of a high end second line forward and Barrie would be in the ballpark of a #3 for the first half of the new deals It would get better from there probably fairly quickly as the new Canadian TV deal could see another big jump in the cap by roughly the midpoint of Nuge's deal.

Barrie's age lets you keep a long term deal down. If he ends up with say a 50 point pace which he easily could I don't think you could sign him for under $6M on anything short. especially with high escrow for two more years.

 

[LTIR]

I assume Kahun will be making 3 million next year.
Nuge will be making 5.5 to 6.5
Larsson will probably get 3.5
Barrie will get 4.5-5
Hall would command around 7 million
Need a goalie and a steady Dman.
Klefbom is LTIR'D
Neal will be LTIR'D in a year or so

Kahun has done nothing to get a 300% raise. Bear like 2x2 deal should be plenty for him unless he turns things around finishing with 10+ goals and 25+pts.
Not much leverage right now for him.

Also, dont think Larsson would get 3.5M from any club this offseason.

He will be higher than Russell for sure but not by much. 2.5M per max to mentor Broberg unless he has monster playoffs.

 

[Spawn]

For me the bigger issue is the next year or two. I have said this before but I think there will be a big jump in the cap (assuming covid goes away) by 2024-2025 at the very latest.

I think you could pay Nuge $7.5M and Barrie $5.5M without impacting the ability to resign those guys. Now that does not mean that they should spend $13.5M for those two. The first question for me is do you commit to Barrie. If the answer is yes, then I think if they are creative they could get Nuge and Barrie together for well under $12M. People might not like this but I think the way to go with both players is the long term route.

With Nuge I'd work on the premise of something like $7.6M x 5 plus $4.5M x 3 = 8 years at $6.4375M.

For Barrie, Id do something similar but shorter if they thought he was a long term solution:

$5.25 x3 plus $4M x 3 =$4.58M x 6

Both deal's structured to maximize take home pay.

With a flat cap thsoe numbers won't thrill many around here but if covid ends to the point where arenas can be filled I think by 2024-2025 we have a cap that could be conservatively $92M but also be $95M if thenew TV money comes in at the high end of the range of speculation.

At the low end in today's dollar equivalents with a $92M cap this would be like Nuge at $5.67M and Barrie at $4.06M. At the high end it would be like Nuge at $5.5M and Barrie at $3.93M. So in effect they would have roughly the same porton of the cap by 2024-2025 as they do now.

TO put this in perspective assuming a cap over $92M Nuge's salary would be consistent with that of a high end second line forward and Barrie would be in the ballpark of a #3 for the first half of the new deals It would get better from there probably fairly quickly as the new Canadian TV deal could see another big jump in the cap by roughly the midpoint of Nuge's deal.

Barrie's age lets you keep a long term deal down. If he ends up with say a 50 point pace which he easily could I don't think you could sign him for under $6M on anything short. especially with high escrow for two more years.

Signing Barrie and Nuge until they are 36 just to save a couple million on cap up front seems very shortsighted to me.

How many players of their ilk are still effective into their mid 30s?

Maybe I'm overestimating the impact of age.

 

[belair]

Kahun has done nothing to get a 300% raise. Bear like 2x2 deal should be plenty for him unless he turns things around finishing with 10+ goals and 25+pts.
Not much leverage right now for him.

Also, dont think Larsson would get 3.5M from any club this offseason.

He will be higher than Russell for sure but not by much. 2.5M per max to mentor Broberg unless he has monster playoffs.

Using the Edmundson contract as a comparable, I could see Larsson making something in that ballpark quite easily in the off-season. In a limited free agent market, he'll have his options. It's probably up to him whether he stays or not.

This is all banking on him staying healthy and continuing his current progress this season.

 

[LTIR]

Using the Edmundson contract as a comparable, I could see Larsson making something in that ballpark quite easily in the off-season. In a limited free agent market, he'll have his options. It's probably up to him whether he stays or not.

This is all banking on him staying healthy and continuing his current progress this season.

Edmundson comparable might cost Larsson more than it would help him.
As the gap gets wider in their play the less teams would pay Larsson. No way he is getting 3M if Edmundson is used as a comparison

 

[Aerchon]

Using the Edmundson contract as a comparable, I could see Larsson making something in that ballpark quite easily in the off-season. In a limited free agent market, he'll have his options. It's probably up to him whether he stays or not.

This is all banking on him staying healthy and continuing his current progress this season.

I'll have to come back to this thread when I have more time. But it's a great conversation and shows how important cap management will be over the next few years.

I'm hoping Holland can some how start getting some player signed on team friendly contracts with term. Highly unlikely but one can hope.

Larsson will be getting damn near league minimum next year at his rate of "improvement". Seriously though, if Turris only got 1.65? Larsson is set for less than that next year where ever he ends up.

 

[Jumptheshark]

I assume Kahun will be making 3 million next year.
Nuge will be making 5.5 to 6.5
Larsson will probably get 3.5
Barrie will get 4.5-5
Hall would command around 7 million
Need a goalie and a steady Dman.
Klefbom is LTIR'D
Neal will be LTIR'D in a year or so

You are under valuing Nuge and to out Neal on LTIR he actually has to be injured

 

[belair]

Edmundson comparable might cost Larsson more than it would help him.
As the gap gets wider in their play the less teams would pay Larsson. No way he is getting 3M if Edmundson is used as a comparison

Larsson is actually accomplishing more with less. Edmundson has paired with Petry. Larsson with a plethora of rookies finding his offense on one of the worst performing bottom six units in the league to this point.

Regardless, this is a team cap thread. The cap numbers for Barrie or Larsson are impossible to forecast with so many unknowns. The only thing we can foresee is the UFA crop.

 

[Fourier]

Signing Barrie and Nuge until they are 36 just to save a couple million on cap up front seems very shortsighted to me.

How many players of their ilk are still effective into their mid 30s?

Maybe I'm overestimating the impact of age.

I think it depends on the style. For defensemen its the big defensive defensemen that tend to age early. Offensive defensemen whose games are built more on the type of skills Barrie has tend to age quite well. Similarly with a guy like Nuge whose game is more subtle and cerebral.

The reason you try to save cap now is because the next two years are where things might be a little tight. While no one really knows what will happen with the pandemic, assuming every thing is back to normal in terms of live attendance by Christmas of next year the NHL is set up for a big jump in revenue. Had the pandemic not hit we were looking at a cap of roughly $85-86M this year. That is a decent starting point for 2024-2025 assuming no new money at all. But the andemic has actually spurred the NHL on to find additional revenues. Then there is the new US TV contract. At $500M per year we would be looking at adding roughly $5M to the cap. At $750M, a number that could include some new streaming money, you would be looking at adding $8.6M to the cap. So when I suggest a cap of $92M in 2024-2025, I really am being very conservative. The new Canadian TV deal is up in 2026 which would be the mid point of the Nuge deal. That could easily bump things up another $5M or so.

That is why you go long term to save money now. It's a risk of course but the odds tend to be on your side when you are in a period where the cap is rising quickly. Now if you can get them to bite on shorter team friendly deals...go for it. As I am sure you would guess from my history, I'd be much more comfortable with a long ter deal for Nuge than for Barrie. But BBO asked specifically what I thought the Oilers could do to not hurt the cap situation. One caveate to all f this. No movement clauses!

 

[XXIV97]

Buyouts
Pouliot's buyout penalty will come off the books this season ($1,333,333). Additionally, Sekera's buyout penalty will be reduced (2.5 --> 1.5). Thus, this past season we have $2,833,333 in dead cap space.

If Holland were to buyout Neal, there will be a buyout penalty of $1,916,667. When factoring in the dead cap space coming off the books, and Neal's buyout penalty, we would have additional $916,666 in cap space compared to this season.

Season	Buyout Penalty	When Factoring in Other Buyout Penalties
21-22	$1,916,667	+$916,666
22-23	$1,916,667	-$1,916,667
23-24	$1,916,667	-$1,916,667
24-25	$1,916,667	-$1,916,667

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

Buyout Neal would workout the best in 21-22 since as mentioned above the elimination of Pouliot's penalty and Sekera's being reduced ($6,666,666 cap savings). For 22-23, we would still get $3,833,333 in cap savings, Then for 23-24 & 24-25, we would lose $1,916,667.
_____________________________________________________________________
Bad Contracts:

The only bad contract on the Oilers currently would be Zack Kassian. I think the overpayment is probably only around $500k so it won't be too hard to trade away. Especially since players of Kassian's style is a dying breed in the NHL.

Kassian's contract at the end of this season would be 3 years left at $3.2 M. Worst case, his buyout penalty is not too bad.
_____________________________________________________________________
Contract Negotiations for 20-21: Forwards

RNH: I believe he has usually been a slow starter. However, even with his slow start, he would still be on pace for 56 points in a full regular season. I see no reason not to extend him if he is willing to take less than $7 M per year.

My maximum contract offer would be $7 M x 6 years but I would try to get him to sign for $6.5 M. (EXTENDED)

Chiasson: I do not see a future where the Oilers will extend Chiasson unless he wants to take a 700k contract to be a depth forward. Even then, I would prefer to give Benson/McLeod the opportunity to earn a roster spot. Thus, I would let him walk to UFA. (UNSIGNED)

Khaira: As seen by his previous five games, he can be an effective fourth line player in the NHL. I would look to bring him back for $1 M x 1 year. I think there is some potential here if we can get him to play on a consistent basis. (EXTENDED)

Ennis: I would offer him a $1 M x 1 year contract extension; however, I would let him walk if he wants more. He is a good depth forward to have on the roster. (EXTENDED)

Kahun: Not really sure what we have in him yet. I do see the potential for him to be a really good top nine forward, maybe even top six. I would give him a slight raise so $1.2 M x 1 year. (EXTENDED)

Yamamoto: We should look to extend him long term. He is on pace for a 40 points season in a full regular season. $5 M x 8 years. (EXTENDED)

Shore: He can walk. (UNSIGNED)

Cap hit: $15.2 M
_____________________________________________________________________
Contract Negotiations for 20-21: Defense

Larsson: (UNSIGNED)

Barrie: I would actually re-sign Barrie if he is willing to take a $5.5 M x 4 years contract extension. If not, Bouchard can fill his role on the PP. (EXTENDED)

Koekkoek: 700 K contract extension. (EXTENDED)

Cap hit: $6.2 M
_____________________________________________________________________
Contract Negotiations for 20-21: Goaltenders

Smith: Old. (UNSIGNED)

Cap hit: $0 M
_____________________________________________________________________
Roster heading into Free Agency:

X-McDavid-Puljujarvi
RNH-Draisaitl-Yamamoto
Kahun-X-Kassian
Ennis-Khaira-Archibald
Turris

Nurse-Barrie
Klefbom-Bear
Lagesson-Bouchard
Jones

Koskinen
X

Cap hit: $60,513,333 (if someone wants to double check fine by me).
Cap space: $20,986,667
_____________________________________________________________________
Free Agency:

Possible Targets for 3C: Phillip Danault and Mikael Granlund

Mikael Granlund 1 year @ 5 M

Possible Targets for 1LW: Taylor Hall, Jaden Schwartz

Taylor Hall for 6 years @ 7.5 M.

Possible Targets for G: Frederik Andersen, Jordan Binnington, Antti Raanta, Philipp Grubauer

Jordan Binnington for 4 years @ 4.5 M

Total Cap hit: $17 thus leaving around $4 M in cap space.
_____________________________________________________________________
Lineup:

Hall-McDavid-Puljujarvi
RNH-Draisaitl-Yamamoto
Kahun-Granlund-Kassian
Ennis-Khaira-Archibald
Turris, Benson

Nurse-Barrie
Klefbom-Bear
Lagesson-Bouchard
Jones, Russell

Binnington
Koskinen

After the season, let Granlund and Koskinen walk. Use the remaining money to sign Nurse and a new goaltender. Flip Kassian if required as well.

 

[JBear]

XXIV97, I agree with you for the most part.

I think Turris has to stay as the 3rd line centre. If Holland can use his magic and find someone for cheap and who is more effective than Turris, that'd obviously be great. Unfortunately, Haas doesn't have the scoring potential of Turris and he'll be let go, along with Nygard OR Shore.

I'm also really hoping Khaira just isn't having a contract year and will go back to his old ways once he secures a contract. This "4th" line is really effective right now and wouldn't mind keeping them for another year at least.

As for defence…

I'd also keep Barrie for $5.5M/year. He plays extremely well with Nurse and the two are feeding off each other.

I'd re-sign Larsson to a 1 year deal. He's the veteran and toughness we need and he can fill in between him and Bouchard and Bear when needed.

I like Koekkoek as well and would re-sign him as well.

The guys on the "taxi squad" are Russell, Jones, and Bouchard/Larsson. We have a bit of a log jam happening at D. We could trade one or two of them in a package with Neal to clear up cap space.

 

[ThreeOfAPerfectPair]

$4.16M in dead cap going to be felt for the 22-23 season...

 

[48g90a138pts]

20 mil in cap space next year and only 13 contacts signed.

It's going to be a stingy Free Agency next year. Really hope all this new cap with the longer term contracts works out for us.

Darnell Nurse contract will be a big one

Tampa is continuing to defy all logic with their cap situation. Maybe next season it finally catches up to them.

15 contracts signed, 1.55 mil in cap space

 

[Kamus]

So, on capgeek it states oilers have 1.2 million in capspace left. When they place Klef on LTIR does that mean they actually have 4.2 million in cap to potentially get another player? Or am I reading it wrong?
80.2 million + 4.2 million LTIR = 84.4 million in workable cap if they get a player of that salary???

 

[belair]

20 mil in cap space next year and only 13 contacts signed.

It's going to be a stingy Free Agency next year. Really hope all this new cap with the longer term contracts works out for us.

Darnell Nurse contract will be a big one

View attachment 457858

Tampa is continuing to defy all logic with their cap situation. Maybe next season it finally catches up to them.

15 contracts signed, 1.55 mil in cap space

We're very fortunate that our drafting has improved considerably over the past several years. ELCs and low cost second contracts are going to help filling out the lower end of the roster in the coming seasons.

 

[Faelko]

So, on capgeek it states oilers have 1.2 million in capspace left. When they place Klef on LTIR does that mean they actually have 4.2 million in cap to potentially get another player? Or am I reading it wrong?
80.2 million + 4.2 million LTIR = 84.4 million in workable cap if they get a player of that salary???

The 1.2 includes Stalock, demote him and they have 2M.

LTIR is tricky, depends on when they place Klefbom on it. They need to sign Yamamoto and Foegele now too.

 

[48g90a138pts]

So, on capgeek it states oilers have 1.2 million in capspace left. When they place Klef on LTIR does that mean they actually have 4.2 million in cap to potentially get another player? Or am I reading it wrong?
80.2 million + 4.2 million LTIR = 84.4 million in workable cap if they get a player of that salary???

The 1.2 includes Stalock, demote him and they have 2M.

LTIR is tricky, depends on when they place Klefbom on it. They need to sign Yamamoto and Foegele now too.

Also Bouchard and McLeod are waiver exempt so Holland can hide their salaries to get under the cap so he doesn't waste any of Klefbom's LTIR prior to the start of the season if that situation arises.