2024 NHL Draft Thread (CBJ to pick 4th)

[squashmaple]

Michael Brandsegg-Nygard is going to be the perfect linemate for Jack Hughes.

I went with Helenius to pair with Hischier, but same idea.

 

[majormajor]

I went with Helenius to pair with Hischier, but same idea.

Helenius is another good choice because he'll take care of whatever you need. But all the H boys are a bit on the small side so I thought MBN was the better complement for that.

 

[Cowumbus]

If Demidov is there, draft him. If he’s not trade down and take Buium. Thats my vote.

 

[majormajor]

If Demidov is there, draft him. If he’s not trade down and take Buium. Thats my vote.

How far down do you think we could trade to get Buium? He's liable to go one of the next few picks I think.

I think trading down makes sense when you have a deep tier of guys you value similarly, and you can get one at the back of the line. But if you have one guy you prefer, better take him when you can.

 

[Aaaarrgghh]

Pronman had Columbus picking Dickinson in his mock draft with Demidov, Lindstrom and Buium all left on the table. If that were to happen, I would be very disappointed.

He noted that they could just as well pick Demidov or Lindstrom, though.

Pronman's 2024 NHL Mock Draft: Levshunov to Chicago, Dickinson to Columbus?

Corey Pronman projects the top 32 picks in his first mock draft of the season.

www.nytimes.com

 

[Cowumbus]

How far down do you think we could trade to get Buium? He's liable to go one of the next few picks I think.

I think trading down makes sense when you have a deep tier of guys you value similarly, and you can get one at the back of the line. But if you have one guy you prefer, better take him when you can.

7-8 was as low as I felt comfortable. I like Buium, and would be fine with him at 4.

One of the safer picks IMO.

 

[majormajor]

7 was as low as I felt comfortable. But maybe 8.

Utah might take Buium. I think swapping 4 for 6 is the lowest safe point, and that's only if they are sure to take someone else at 4. Montreal will take a forward.

 

[Cowumbus]

Utah might take Buium. I think swapping 4 for 6 is the lowest safe point, and that's only if they are sure to take someone else at 4. Montreal will take a forward.

And I’d be fine with that. 4 for 6 + ?

 

[DoingItCoolKiwi]

Trading down gets pretty impossible if you're only targeting one single guy. Can't just pick and choose which pick will be available and who'll be available there. You'll have to trust the scouts to get value regardless what other teams do with their picks

In this draft possibilities are basically OTT 7th+26th and CGY 9th+29th. If Buium is that far above Parekh, Catton or whoever, then you pick him at 4th instead of moving. If the a,b,c options are close, then it'd be a great value move to trade down

 

[Xoggz22]

Nikolai Makarov is still a CBJ prospect. We still do have some defensive D with NHL potential.

Richard too. CBJ still very high on him

 

[WannabeFinn]

I have a very hard time seeing the new GM opt for a trade down from 4, especially when you consider the way the tiers of prospects in this class shake out. Not unless it’s a deal you’d just be stupid to say no to. Don’t see that happening either.

Take your guy at 4. Fair chance they can get the guy they have internally ranked 2nd best in the class (Celebrini should be #1 on every team’s board and for good reason).

Don’t just assume Demidov is our internal #2. Or that they like Levshunov or Silayev more than Buium or Dickinson.

I’m not arguing for any particular prospect at 4. But, knowing how wildly different draft boards can become across the league even just after the first player, I would consider it a likely outcome that by drafting at 4 OA our new GM will end up with whomever he has at 2 or 3 on our internal board. That’s not a scenario where you trade down.

 

[Crede777]

I have a very hard time seeing the new GM opt for a trade down from 4, especially when you consider the way the tiers of prospects in this class shake out. Not unless it’s a deal you’d just be stupid to say no to. Don’t see that happening either.

Take your guy at 4. Fair chance they can get the guy they have internally ranked 2nd best in the class (Celebrini should be #1 on every team’s board and for good reason).

Don’t just assume Demidov is our internal #2. Or that they like Levshunov or Silayev more than Buium or Dickinson.

I’m not arguing for any particular prospect at 4. But, knowing how wildly different draft boards can become across the league even just after the first player, I would consider it a likely outcome that by drafting at 4 OA our new GM will end up with whomever he has at 2 or 3 on our internal board. That’s not a scenario where you trade down.

There's an interesting paper from Cade Massey and Richard Thaler on the NFL draft. While there are significant differences between the NFL draft and the NHL draft (namely a steeper drop in talent through the first 10 picks), the lesson from the study is interesting. Specifically, NFL GM's tend to overrate earlier picks compared to packages of lower picks which have a greater value in aggregate. That is because the NFL GM's overrate their own abilities to distinguish good players from bad and fail to appreciate the fact that more arrows in the quiver (draft picks) may be more important than the quality of those arrows.

 

[Xoggz22]

There's an interesting paper from Cade Massey and Richard Thaler on the NFL draft. While there are significant differences between the NFL draft and the NHL draft (namely a steeper drop in talent through the first 10 picks), the lesson from the study is interesting. Specifically, NFL GM's tend to overrate earlier picks compared to packages of lower picks which have a greater value in aggregate. That is because the NFL GM's overrate their own abilities to distinguish good players from bad and fail to appreciate the fact that more arrows in the quiver (draft picks) may be more important than the quality of those arrows.

I don't disagree with this. However, I would suggest that at this point in the rebuild, I don't think they need more arrows in the quiver. They need high end/elite level talents. If there is conviction on who that is, take him at 4 and move on. If they can get the guy at for at 6 or 7- these guys know who's picking whom - then trade back and grab the asset. I think the talent drop off in the NHL is much higher than that in the NFL so that's where I woudl draw the line.

 

[majormajor]

There's an interesting paper from Cade Massey and Richard Thaler on the NFL draft. While there are significant differences between the NFL draft and the NHL draft (namely a steeper drop in talent through the first 10 picks), the lesson from the study is interesting. Specifically, NFL GM's tend to overrate earlier picks compared to packages of lower picks which have a greater value in aggregate. That is because the NFL GM's overrate their own abilities to distinguish good players from bad and fail to appreciate the fact that more arrows in the quiver (draft picks) may be more important than the quality of those arrows.

I'd be curious how they establish value of the players. I've seen papers where people use games played for example, which really overvalues depth players. We're really interested in drafting players who we can't get through other means.

 

[Crede777]

I'd be curious how they establish value of the players. I've seen papers where people use games played for example, which really overvalues depth players. We're really interested in drafting players who we can't get through other means.

Here is a link to the article: https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&sou...CBEQAQ&sqi=2&usg=AOvVaw0L6AN6X9QKBYfRa8e24Byj (if you don't trust random download links then Google Massey and Thaler NFL Draft and you'll find it along with their much longer paper).

I'm not saying it's the end-all be-all. There are major differences between the NHL and NFL. But it is interesting nonetheless.

 

[DankoCBJ]

So our positional needs are basically at center and right side of the defence? That would speak on behalf of Lindstrom and Levshunov. Also goalies but there wont be goalies going on the first round. You can argue that we need size too to our future D-core and there is some in Silayev and Dickinson.

I think those are our targets. A guy like Buium is too similar in style and size with Mateychuk, Svozil, Strathmann... Same with Catton, when we have already Johnson, Dumais, Del Bel Belluz..

 

[majormajor]

So our positional needs are basically at center and right side of the defence? That would speak on behalf of Lindstrom and Levshunov. Also goalies but there wont be goalies going on the first round. You can argue that we need size too to our future D-core and there is some in Silayev and Dickinson.

We have more young centers and RD than the large majority of clubs.

C and RD are always good things to add, for every club.

We could definitely use size.

 

[majormajor]

I think those are our targets. A guy like Buium is too similar in style and size with Mateychuk

Mateychuk just added another 2 goals in the WHL finals last night.

I would take 2 or 3 of him.

 

[DankoCBJ]

We have more young centers and RD than the large majority of clubs.

C and RD are always good things to add, for every club.

We could definitely use size.

We have one (1) young RHD behind Jiricek in our pipeline and that is Ceulemans who have not impressed. We should add another if possible.

Centers we have more. But behind Fantilli we might just have guys whose upside is in the third line. So there is no 2C coming unless Sillinger continues growing as a player or Johnson transforms to a center but im not a believer.

So I think those are our clear positional needs.

 

[majormajor]

Centers we have more. But behind Fantilli we might just have guys whose upside is in the third line. So there is no 2C coming unless Sillinger continues growing as a player or Johnson transforms to a center but im not a believer.

So I think those are our clear positional needs.

Just to be clear, you understand that the large majority of teams don't have their future 1C and multiple future 3Cs all under the age of 21?

Not having your entire future lineup in the org does not establish a particular need. It would be really unusual (unprecedented?) if you actually had every piece lined up like that. In reality we will have a mix of young players and veterans, and we'd be better for it.

We have one (1) young RHD behind Jiricek in our pipeline and that is Ceulemans who have not impressed. We should add another if possible.

Between Severson, Boqvist, and Jiricek, we'd have to subtract to make space for more RD. I think there's a case to be made for changing that composition.

Adding more centers and RD is good in every draft, I'm not seeing anything special in the Jackets depth chart that make these particular needs for us. Just draft the BPA - which is weighted towards centers/RD anyways.

 

[koteka]

Just to be clear, you understand that the large majority of teams don't have their future 1C and multiple future 3Cs all under the age of 21?

Not having your entire future lineup in the org does not establish a particular need. It would be really unusual (unprecedented?) if you actually had every piece lined up like that. In reality we will have a mix of young players and veterans, and we'd be better for it.



Between Severson, Boqvist, and Jiricek, we'd have to subtract to make space for more RD. I think there'sp a case to be made for changing that composition.

Adding more centers and RD is good in every draft, I'm not seeing anything special in the Jackets depth chart that make these particular needs for us. Just draft the BPA - which is weighted towards centers/RD anyways.

You are making a pretty big assumption that we have a 1C and multiple 3Cs that I am not willing to make. Until we know that is a fact, I am all for drafting Cs. I’d say Sillinger is a 3C. I am not ready to call Fantilli a 2C, let alone a 1C — especially coming off a strange injury. KJ hasn’t been used as a center so I call him a wing. LDBB is guy I am high on, but he hasn’t convinced me he is an NHL center.

I remember when we have had potential 1Cs before - PLD and Johansen. Until a guy is an established 1C, he isn’t a 1C.

 

[majormajor]

You are making a pretty big assumption that we have a 1C and multiple 3Cs that I am not willing to make. Until we know that is a fact, I am all for drafting Cs. I’d say Sillinger is a 3C. I am not ready to call Fantilli a 2C, let alone a 1C — especially coming off a strange injury. KJ hasn’t been used as a center so I call him a wing. LDBB is guy I am high on, but he hasn’t convinced me he is an NHL center.

I remember when we have had potential 1Cs before - PLD and Johansen. Until a guy is an established 1C, he isn’t a 1C.

Ok. And if we apply this same standard to every team's prospect pool, how many of them have a team need at center? Every single one of them. Most of them are a Fantilli away from having our center prospect depth.

 

[CBJx614]

You are making a pretty big assumption that we have a 1C and multiple 3Cs that I am not willing to make. Until we know that is a fact, I am all for drafting Cs. I’d say Sillinger is a 3C. I am not ready to call Fantilli a 2C, let alone a 1C — especially coming off a strange injury. KJ hasn’t been used as a center so I call him a wing. LDBB is guy I am high on, but he hasn’t convinced me he is an NHL center.

I remember when we have had potential 1Cs before - PLD and Johansen. Until a guy is an established 1C, he isn’t a 1C.

Forgot to mention Voronkov, Brindley and Keskinen. One of which will have a spot locked up and 2 others will be competing for a spot as soon as next season.

It's from the hockey writers, so grain of salt. But LDBB has been playing top line center for Cleveland who has been dominating in the playoffs so far. Obviously far from a lock but let's not act like he's not showing anything.

Luca Del Bel Belluz Rapidly Rising Up Blue Jackets' Depth Chart - The Hockey Writers Columbus Blue Jackets Latest News, Analysis & More

Blue Jackets' prospect Luca Del Bel Belluz is rising up the depth chart thanks to opportunity. We catch up with him about development & more.

thehockeywriters.com

 

[koteka]

Ok. And if we apply this same standard to every team's prospect pool, how many of them have a team need at center? Every single one of them. Most of them are a Fantilli away from having our center prospect depth.

Certainly, but most teams also have a current 1C and 2C. We have Boone Jenner who is a fine player, but he would be a 3C or a wing on several playoff teams and a 2C on the others. Those teams would love to have some good center prospects, but not at the cost of winning now. Of course we have better under 21 center depth than most teams - that is what sucking for 3 years gets you. We get high draft picks and trade veterans at the deadline for more draft picks.

 

[MoeBartoli]

Forgot to mention Voronkov, Brindley and Keskinen. One of which will have a spot locked up and 2 others will be competing for a spot as soon as next season.

It's from the hockey writers, so grain of salt. But LDBB has been playing top line center for Cleveland who has been dominating in the playoffs so far. Obviously far from a lock but let's not act like he's not showing anything.

Luca Del Bel Belluz Rapidly Rising Up Blue Jackets' Depth Chart - The Hockey Writers Columbus Blue Jackets Latest News, Analysis & More

Blue Jackets' prospect Luca Del Bel Belluz is rising up the depth chart thanks to opportunity. We catch up with him about development & more.

thehockeywriters.com

Unless he’s traded, I would see Voronkov as a lock. He has the size up front that the Jackets - and many teams - love to have.