2024 NHL Draft: Play Like a Sieve So We Can Draft Zeev

[jMoneyBrah]

Interestingly, there is both an extremely statistically significant correlation of birth months vs. NHL success and a meaningful boost in production the older you are for your draft year.

Yes, again my understanding is that, the “granted extra ice time and opportunity compounded across their youth hockey experience simply by virtue of being slightly more physically capable relative to their cohort…” is suspected to be driving the pattern you’re noting.

(Probably slightly more cognitively capabilities for these players is probably also a factor)

 

[cheechoo]

Searching Celebrini's name on twitter isn't good for my health. I didn't realize how possessive over him I'd gotten until I saw non Sharks fans pencilling him into lineups.

On another note, I just saw Craig's List.

#9: Cayden Lindstrom
#10: Tij Iginla
#11: Carter Yakemchuk
#12: Anton Silayev
...
#15: Berkly Catton

It'd be a surprise for sure, but not totally ludicrous that the board plays out like that in June and it'd be mighty exciting if our second first rounder ends up converting right in the midst of that range.

 

[weastern bias]

Only on HF is a 15 month gap considered a lot older

If you're talking about a 30 year old vs a 31 year old playing in the NHL, no it's not much of a difference

If you're talking about a 17 year old and a 19 year old posting comparable statlines in D1 college hockey, yes, there is a significant difference in the expectations you can have for their future growth when projecting forward

 

[LilLeeroy]

Searching Celebrini's name on twitter isn't good for my health. I didn't realize how possessive over him I'd gotten until I saw non Sharks fans pencilling him into lineups.

On another note, I just saw Craig's List.

#9: Cayden Lindstrom
#10: Tij Iginla
#11: Carter Yakemchuk
#12: Anton Silayev
...
#15: Berkly Catton

It'd be a surprise for sure, but not totally ludicrous that the board plays out like that in June and it'd be mighty exciting if our second first rounder ends up converting right in the midst of that range.

You have to realize though that your dream is Rick Celebrini's nightmare

 

[knu]

Sorry, my phrasing was poor. I was trying to phrase my question around us being comfortable with Celebrini starting in the NHL immediately and Smith having to wait a year because he wasn't developed enough. Might come down to raw skill, I was just curious about the physical aspect.

I hope that was clearer.

 

[gaucholoco3]

Yes, again my understanding is that, the “granted extra ice time and opportunity compounded across their youth hockey experience simply by virtue of being slightly more physically capable relative to their cohort…” is suspected to be driving the pattern you’re noting.

(Probably slightly more cognitively capabilities for these players is probably also a factor)

This phenomenon where they are advantages with extra ice time is associated with birth month concentrated at the beginning of the year since most youth leagues use birth year to sort teams.

For draft year the biggest difference is between those born before the August cutoff and after.

For example a July birthday is drafted in their “17 year old season” where as a September birthday is drafted in their “18 year old season”

Thus those born after the August cutoff get an extra year of development.

 

[Barrie22]

Are we really worried about players that are 6 feet and 180 and 190lbs each?

 

[mogambomoroo]

Searching Celebrini's name on twitter isn't good for my health. I didn't realize how possessive over him I'd gotten until I saw non Sharks fans pencilling him into lineups.

On another note, I just saw Craig's List.

#9: Cayden Lindstrom
#10: Tij Iginla
#11: Carter Yakemchuk
#12: Anton Silayev
...
#15: Berkly Catton

It'd be a surprise for sure, but not totally ludicrous that the board plays out like that in June and it'd be mighty exciting if our second first rounder ends up converting right in the midst of that range.

I have a feeling that if Chicago picks at #2 they'll pick Berkly Catton right there. Don't really know why but it has some Chicago ring in to it.

 

[STL Shark]

It is pretty widely held that there is generally a material difference between players who are old for their draft year versus young for their draft year, which is de facto less than 12 months, so…

And as someone that played D1 sports I have pretty universally always called nonsense on that notion. I was smack in the middle of my graduating class age wise. I had guys that I played with that were old and young and it virtually never mattered nor was it ever considered (quite literally never had a single coach ask about birth date as part of the recruiting process). The most physically mature guy in my freshman class in college was far and away the youngest.

To assume that age within a draft year makes a marked difference relies on the assumption that bodies all develop relatively linear and more time = more body development (which I think we all agree is false). I was an early grower and tapped out in height at age 14. Others (even within my own family) were growing still until they were 25.

The month by month tracking for NHL draftees (literally the only sport where people even discuss or care about it as part of the draft process) is mostly filled with nonsense and I'd peg any sort of trends into more of a correlation/coincidence than age being a true causation of the outcome.

 

[gaucholoco3]

And as someone that played D1 sports I have pretty universally always called nonsense on that notion. I was smack in the middle of my graduating class age wise. I had guys that I played with that were old and young and it virtually never mattered nor was it ever considered (quite literally never had a single coach ask about birth date as part of the recruiting process). The most physically mature guy in my freshman class in college was far and away the youngest.

To assume that age within a draft year makes a marked difference relies on the assumption that bodies all develop relatively linear and more time = more body development (which I think we all agree is false). I was an early grower and tapped out in height at age 14. Others (even within my own family) were growing still until they were 25.

The month by month tracking for NHL draftees (literally the only sport where people even discuss or care about it as part of the draft process) is mostly filled with nonsense and I'd peg any sort of trends into more of a correlation/coincidence than age being a true causation of the outcome.

Not every sport has this problem but in sports where access to coaching and practicing is limited it is even more apparent.

When kids sign up for their first season at 6 and teams are sorted by birth year the kids who are developmentally older by as much as 10% of their life are going to be placed in groups and teams that receive better coaching. Then at 7 the kids that were on the best 6 year old team and got the better coaching will be on the better 7 year old team and receive more quality training.


There is no biological reason for this but eventually as the month age gaps become less significant the gap in quality of training is the greater reason for why those that were older and more developed at 6 are better.

I don’t want to take the time to validate the data myself but birth month is not evenly distributed for NHL players.

This is also an issue in other sports as well. Baseball has a higher percentage of players born in September/October because LL cutoff is Aug 31.

If you want more data and explanation the first chapter of the book “Outliers” is almost exclusively about this issue with Hockey and world junior rosters.

 

[gaucholoco3]

The month by month tracking for NHL draftees (literally the only sport where people even discuss or care about it as part of the draft process) is mostly filled with nonsense and I'd peg any sort of trends into more of a correlation/coincidence than age being a true causation of the outcome.

The NHL is the only league of the major US sports leagues that has a draft that is exclusive to a single 12 month group of players. Every other league has players of different ages being drafted in the same draft.

Also hockey might be most impacted by this phenomenon because it has the highest barrier to entry since Ice is very limited compared to other sports.

 

[jMoneyBrah]

This phenomenon where they are advantages with extra ice time is associated with birth month concentrated at the beginning of the year since most youth leagues use birth year to sort teams.

For draft year the biggest difference is between those born before the August cutoff and after.

For example a July birthday is drafted in their “17 year old season” where as a September birthday is drafted in their “18 year old season”

Thus those born after the August cutoff get an extra year of development.

My understanding has improved!

 

[Selachimorpha]

Searching Celebrini's name on twitter isn't good for my health. I didn't realize how possessive over him I'd gotten until I saw non Sharks fans pencilling him into lineups.

On another note, I just saw Craig's List.

#9: Cayden Lindstrom
#10: Tij Iginla
#11: Carter Yakemchuk
#12: Anton Silayev
...
#15: Berkly Catton

It'd be a surprise for sure, but not totally ludicrous that the board plays out like that in June and it'd be mighty exciting if our second first rounder ends up converting right in the midst of that range.

Obviosuly it would be nice to get Celebrini, but walking away with, say, Levshunov and one of Lindstrom, Iginla, or Catton would be exciting.

 

[StanleyCup2035]

Obviosuly it would be nice to get Celebrini, but walking away with, say, Levshunov and one of Lindstrom, Iginla, or Catton would be exciting.

Catton isn't going #15th, that's just nuts. I'd be shocked if he's not picked in Top 8. He'll likely be a 2nd line center when all is said and done.

 

[Gecklund]

Searching Celebrini's name on twitter isn't good for my health. I didn't realize how possessive over him I'd gotten until I saw non Sharks fans pencilling him into lineups.

On another note, I just saw Craig's List.

#9: Cayden Lindstrom
#10: Tij Iginla
#11: Carter Yakemchuk
#12: Anton Silayev
...
#15: Berkly Catton

It'd be a surprise for sure, but not totally ludicrous that the board plays out like that in June and it'd be mighty exciting if our second first rounder ends up converting right in the midst of that range.

Burton’s lists are notably bad.

 

[Jargon]

Obviosuly it would be nice to get Celebrini, but walking away with, say, Levshunov and one of Lindstrom, Iginla, or Catton would be exciting.

Yeah, I’m really hoping the Pens pick ends up 11ish. I think getting two players in the top 12 is a huge boost for our system.

 

[cheechoo]

Burton’s lists are notably bad.

I didn't post it to be taken as gospel. Just an exercise to rescue us from the withdrawls of this season.

Anyone that's even remotely tracked the prospects this year is aware that this class more than any in the past couple of seasons is primed for total unpredictability after #1. I was just conveying another scenario.

 

[Gecklund]

I didn't post it to be taken as gospel. Just an exercise to rescue us from the withdrawls of this season.

Anyone that's even remotely tracked the prospects this year is aware that this class more than any in the past couple of seasons is primed for total unpredictability after #1. I was just conveying another scenario.

Yeah definitely I just think Button especially is known to be a hot take merchant so was just saying anything he says should be taken with a grain of salt.

 

[Stewie Griffin]

Levshunov at 2/3 and Eiserman at 11 would be a pretty fun risk/reward type of draft. We could end up with a freak-athlete top pair RD and 50 goal scorer or Rasmus Ristolainen and Oliver Wahlstrom.

 

[landshark]

I have a feeling that if Chicago picks at #2 they'll pick Berkly Catton right there. Don't really know why but it has some Chicago ring in to it.

C'mon man, no more rings for Chicago nor cups...

 

[PattyLafontaine]

I think you’re struggling to separate competing on the ice and competing in the standings. I doubt this team is anything but a bottom feeder next year but with this haul and then next year’s two picks I’d rather enjoy the season by 10-15% and pick 6-8th than lose another entire season of watching so we can all spend our time discussing the merits of the worst case from dropping in the lotto to 3.

But why? This team is still so far away. The odds of success of a pick drop dramtically from the 1st to the 6-8th pick.

Not making the playoffs is the same if you have the first pick or the 6th-8th pick, so why would you want the 6th to 8th pick instead of 1st-3rd?

It's weird to find people think that the season was enjoyable because the team was slightly better than the worse team in the league.

This team isn't going to be competitive until 2027-2028, 2028-2029.

Still have no 1-4 D, no realistic goalies, missing most of top 6. Have one center, who has passed the first step as a Frosh in college, but that still doesn't mean anything until he plays in the NHL.

 

[hohosaregood]

i just want them to play with effort. they're mostly doing that even though they suck. better than some years recently.

 

[Hodge]

Whether it's with our pick or the Penguins pick (or maybe both) it'll be nice to add a 6th forward picked in the 1st round from the last 4 drafts between this player, Edstrom, Musty, Smith, Bystedt and Eklund.

We should be able to comfortably pencil in at least 5 of those guys into our future top 9 and they'll all be entering their peak years around the same time which is key to establishing a Cup window.

 

[sharski]

C'mon man, no more rings for Chicago nor cups...

there's literally no other NHL franchise i want to suffer more than Chicago right now, yes including vegas

 

[TheBeard]

But why? This team is still so far away. The odds of success of a pick drop dramtically from the 1st to the 6-8th pick.

Not making the playoffs is the same if you have the first pick or the 6th-8th pick, so why would you want the 6th to 8th pick instead of 1st-3rd?

It's weird to find people think that the season was enjoyable because the team was slightly better than the worse team in the league.

This team isn't going to be competitive until 2027-2028, 2028-2029.

Still have no 1-4 D, no realistic goalies, missing most of top 6. Have one center, who has passed the first step as a Frosh in college, but that still doesn't mean anything until he plays in the NHL.

No, I get it. Some people only care about the team when they’re good. No judgment here.