Pre-Game Talk: 2024 Draft Thread

STL fan in MN

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Not that the simulator is remotely based in reality, but I've had better.
I've had a lot better.

A few observations on it:

16: One of Buium, Silayev or Dickinson are there in the 1st roughly 75% of the time(the few times they aren't, Helenius or Lindstrom are). I only have to resort to taking Iginla or MBN maybe once out of 10 runs.

48: Badinka is there for our 2nd pick almost 80% of the time.
Roughly 1 out of 3 runs, Charlie Elick is still there for our 2nd pick.
I've also had Hutson, Mews and Jiricek fall to our 2nd pick on a semi-regular basis(roughly 1 out of 7 or 8 runs).

56: I typically go forward here. Luchenko is there more than half the time. Also several runs with Basha there with Surin almost always available as a fallback.

81-97-113: I end up with Brunicke, Luca Marelli and EJ Emery(meaning all 3 of them) at 81/97/113 in the majority of my runs. And the few times I don't snag all 3, I typically get 2 of them and Solberg is still there at 113.

145: I typically go with a goalie here. Moysevich and Nabokov are both available here roughly 80% of the time. I've also had Carter George fall to me more than a few times.

209-211: Gabriel Eliasson is still available more than half the time. Timur Kol is there roughly 1 out of 4 runs. Also common for Jack Berglund and/or Satan Jr to be available(they're 7th round picks so I typically go for the giant collection here).


My craziest run was before the Lottery which we "miraculously" won(I swear it only took 4 tries).
6-Celebrini(not joking, I really wish I knew how to do a screen shot on this notebook)
48-Jiricek
56-Hutson
81- Freij
97- Emery
113- Solberg
145- Moysevich
209- Satan
211- Eliasson
Yeah, I’ve had better too. I purposefully handicapped myself by only picking d-men to show just how ridiculous the simulator is.

A waste of time yet I’ve still probably gone though it 20ish times just because it’s fun.
 

Beauterham

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You’ve been reading my posts on Lassila’s page on the Prospects board, haven’t you? :laugh:

I’d definitely take a late round flyer on Lassila. I watched a couple JYP games to watch Pulkkinen and really noticed Lassila. Only 5’10” and has good but not elite skill but he’s an absolute gamer. Shows smarts, high compete level etc.

Then I recalled he was the Finn that really impressed me at the WJC. Their captain and leading scorer with this OT goal as the highlight.


And as you said, already wearing an A in Finland’s top pro league as a 19 year old (he’s 20 now but this was his 19 year old season). I know next to nothing about him as a person but that certainly suggests some high leadership and/or character characteristics as well. I’d certainly throw a 5th-7th round flyer at him. Reminds me of Vladi Sobotka.

Is he likely to become that? Probably not but for a late round pick, he’s worth giving a shot late in the draft IMO.



I first noticed him at the U20's but kinda forgot about him, then my memory got jump started after someone mentioned his name in the 'best overager' (or something like that) thread in the prospect section. I don't think it was you though, but now you mention it, I'll try to see if I can find your posts about him. ;)

But I agree, very interesting player. I would really really by surprised if someone doesn't take a flyer on him at the draft. And if for some reason no one does, I'd give him an invite to development camp to see what he's capable of compared to the other prospects and potentially sign him to an ELC if he shows he's capable enough.
 

Beauterham

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Not that the simulator is remotely based in reality, but I've had better.
I've had a lot better.

A few observations on it:

16: One of Buium, Silayev or Dickinson are there in the 1st roughly 75% of the time(the few times they aren't, Helenius or Lindstrom are). I only have to resort to taking Iginla or MBN maybe once out of 10 runs.

48: Badinka is there for our 2nd pick almost 80% of the time.
Roughly 1 out of 3 runs, Charlie Elick is still there for our 2nd pick.
I've also had Hutson, Mews and Jiricek fall to our 2nd pick on a semi-regular basis(roughly 1 out of 7 or 8 runs).

56: I typically go forward here. Luchenko is there more than half the time. Also several runs with Basha there with Surin almost always available as a fallback.

81-97-113: I end up with Brunicke, Luca Marelli and EJ Emery(meaning all 3 of them) at 81/97/113 in the majority of my runs. And the few times I don't snag all 3, I typically get 2 of them and Solberg is still there at 113.

145: I typically go with a goalie here. Moysevich and Nabokov are both available here roughly 80% of the time. I've also had Carter George fall to me more than a few times.

209-211: Gabriel Eliasson is still available more than half the time. Timur Kol is there roughly 1 out of 4 runs. Also common for Jack Berglund and/or Satan Jr to be available(they're 7th round picks so I typically go for the giant collection here).


My craziest run was before the Lottery which we "miraculously" won(I swear it only took 4 tries).
6-Celebrini(not joking, I really wish I knew how to do a screen shot on this notebook)
48-Jiricek
56-Hutson
81- Freij
97- Emery
113- Solberg
145- Moysevich
209- Satan
211- Eliasson

Lately I've been bored to death at work, so I play a bit with the draft simulator to kill some time. I think I might've used it at least 100 times and that's probably a low estimate. Having said that, I'm quite surprised at your results as I seem to get totally different results than you. Are you running the simulator with the randomness factor at max? The only time when I had guys like Dickinson or Silayev still available is when I had the bar all the way to the max. If so, you can get the weirdest results and Celebrini at 6 doesn't sound all that strange to me.

Most of the time I run the simulator with needs and randomness on 'standard'. Assuming no prospects fall out of where they usually should get picked I usually choose:

16: Iginla>Yakemchuk>Sennecke
48: Freij>Badinka>Surin
56: Emery>Brunicke>L.Marrelli
81: Pulkkinen>Solberg>Vanacker
97: Miettinen>Eriksson>Shuravin>Jecho
113: Avramov>Curran>Mateiko
145: Berglund>Kol>Pitre
209/211: Traff (why is he ranked 227?!) > Kempf > Miller > Osburn (at 298?!) > Kupec > Smith >Guy

My best draft (standard setting) untill now:
16: Buium
48: Freij
56: Surin
81: Brunicke
97: Miettinen
113: Eriksson
145: Berglund
209: Kempf
211: Traff
 
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Beauterham

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I love reading up on other teams boards how they think about the next draft. I like how opinions on other team boards differentiate a lot compared to us.

For example, take Michael Brandsegg-Nygård. For us, it seems like he would just be a consolation prize @16 where there are probably at least 3-5 better players on the board. However, at the New Jersey board they're scared that he will already be gone at 10.

I guess we're all a bit in our own echo chamber.

I wouldn't mind NJ picking MBN at 10 though! In that case we just need one team in the top-15 to pick Connelly and we could draft a prospect in a higher segment than expected. Sennecke? Yakemchuk?
 

Stupendous Yappi

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I love reading up on other teams boards how they think about the next draft. I like how opinions on other team boards differentiate a lot compared to us.

For example, take Michael Brandsegg-Nygård. For us, it seems like he would just be a consolation prize @16 where there are probably at least 3-5 better players on the board. However, at the New Jersey board they're scared that he will already be gone at 10.

I guess we're all a bit in our own echo chamber.

I wouldn't mind NJ picking MBN at 10 though! In that case we just need one team in the top-15 to pick Connelly and we could draft a prospect in a higher segment than expected. Sennecke? Yakemchuk?
I wish there was a way for us as fans to silently subscribe to the Blues draft strategy in real time. Know how they rate the various prospects and watch the draft in real time. It would be fun to see the guys THEY want to go after dropping to us, or to already know who they've traded up for before its announced.
 

STL fan in MN

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I love reading up on other teams boards how they think about the next draft. I like how opinions on other team boards differentiate a lot compared to us.

For example, take Michael Brandsegg-Nygård. For us, it seems like he would just be a consolation prize @16 where there are probably at least 3-5 better players on the board. However, at the New Jersey board they're scared that he will already be gone at 10.

I guess we're all a bit in our own echo chamber.

I wouldn't mind NJ picking MBN at 10 though! In that case we just need one team in the top-15 to pick Connelly and we could draft a prospect in a higher segment than expected. Sennecke? Yakemchuk?
Totally true. Fan bases/boards can get fixated on particular prospects, us included.

The NJ board picked MBN at 10.
2024 Team Board Mock Draft
It’ll be our turn in 6ish days.

Who should we pick?
 
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PerryTurnbullfan

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Totally true. Fan bases/boards can get fixated on particular prospects, us included.

The NJ board picked MBN at 10.
2024 Team Board Mock Draft
It’ll be our turn in 6ish days.

Who should we pick?
The only interesting guys I can see falling are either Eiserman or Yak. I don't see Helenius, Parekh or Sennecke falling that far. I do not want Greentree, Boisvert or Connelly. Hage (his inconsistency doesn't thrill me), Jiricek (rather take Badinka less risk serious dice roll...), Chernyshov (if I'm taking a winger and don't think it's a need or a value pick, but I value Surin more) are there.

Off the consensus, I like Freij, Surin, Badinka, Emery, and Elick.

I would love to make a deal for a player or trade down....rather than make the pick.
 

PerryTurnbullfan

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So some interesting statistics from the players I followed last year.
USNTP guys - Most of the guys were drafted within 10 spots of their avg ranking
Czechs were all within 10 spots
Way off high and low on BCHL/AJHL/HS type leagues
Generally 10 spots + off on Russians.
Overvalued later round Finns by 10 plus spots
Generally 10 spots off +/- on later round Swedes,
USHL guys were overvalued in their average rankings most of the time
After pick 24, the WHL was generally 20-30 off high and low (mainly high on their avg ranking)
nothing consistent you could conclude out of the Q
OHL was a little over valued in the top round. after round 2 the gap widened on ranking a lot
 

kimzey59

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Totally true. Fan bases/boards can get fixated on particular prospects, us included.

The NJ board picked MBN at 10.
2024 Team Board Mock Draft
It’ll be our turn in 6ish days.

Who should we pick?
Helenius, Eiserman, Sennecke, Connelly, Parekh and Yakemchuk still on the board at this point.
We need one of the next 5 teams to take Connelly or reach for Greentree.
Our pick will be obvious if that happens. Would be really interesting if both happen.

If it doesn't; we'll have our pick of the next tier of D men(Jiricek, Elick, Badinka, Hutson, Mews, LSW, Freij). For me, it would be between Jiricek and Badinka(personally, I'd lean towards Jiricek but I can definitely see the argument for Badinka). We need to wait until a bit closer to our pick to really have this discussion(in terms of this poll).

And I think it goes without saying that Army would be in an absolute mad scramble to move up if things actually fell like this. But that isn't how the poll works, so let's just not go there.
 
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PerryTurnbullfan

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Someday I’d like to see a team match up on stage and select a player that’s already been selected just to see the chaos and embarrassment that would ensue. It’d be pure entertainment.
Was it hockey where they selected a player in the later rounds with the same last name but wrong player? I just remember a story years ago.
 

STL fan in MN

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Helenius, Eiserman, Sennecke, Connelly, Parekh and Yakemchuk still on the board at this point.
We need one of the next 5 teams to take Connelly or reach for Greentree.
Our pick will be obvious if that happens. Would be really interesting if both happen.

If it doesn't; we'll have our pick of the next tier of D men(Jiricek, Elick, Badinka, Hutson, Mews, LSW, Freij). For me, it would be between Jiricek and Badinka(personally, I'd lean towards Jiricek but I can definitely see the argument for Badinka). We need to wait until a bit closer to our pick to really have this discussion(in terms of this poll).

And I think it goes without saying that Army would be in an absolute mad scramble to move up if things actually fell like this. But that isn't how the poll works, so let's just not go there.
It really opens up here in a few picks IMO. And MacKenzie’s poll showed that - a very clear top-15 (but the order not being clear) and then opinions are all over the place.

Based on who is left, I have it in order of Helenius, Yak, Sennecke and then Parekh. There’s 5 more picks between us so we’d need two surprises for any of those 4 to be on the board.

As you can probably tell by now, I wouldn’t consider Eiserman the obvious pick if he was the only one left of that group. I have it as:

15 Luchanko
16 Eiserman
17 Hage
18 Solberg
19 Freij
20 Badinka
21 Surin
22 Eriksson
23 Jiricek
24 Pettersson
25 Artamonov
26 Chernyshov
27 Beaudoin
28 Greentree

This is the next tier for me.

I’ll speak to Luchanko as he’s probably the main one I have higher than most. I just see so much potential in him. He “only” had 74 pts in 68 games but that still led a low scoring Guelph team in scoring as a 17 year old. So not eye popping numbers but only 3 teams scored fewer goals than Guelph so when taken into account, his numbers are more impressive to me.

He reminds me a lot of Nick Suzuki and Robert Thomas. Players that might not absolutely jump off the screen with skill but have high, high hockey sense and are simply fantastic all-around hockey players.

He’s listed at 5’11” 183 lbs so not huge but plays C and plays the position well. Good shot and puck skills but not at the top of this class. He shines everywhere else though. He’s one of the best skaters in this draft IMO. Fast but his edge work is also very good. He also works his butt off. Don’t ever see him taking a shift off and he does all the little things right. Which brings me to his best attribute - his hockey sense. He’s simply a super smart player. Very good at finding open teammates, has very good positioning and is a distribution machine. I think he’s going to really pop next season.
 
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PerryTurnbullfan

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It really opens up here in a few picks IMO. And MacKenzie’s poll showed that - a very clear top-15 (but the order not being clear) and then opinions are all over the place.

Based on who is left, I have it in order of Helenius, Yak, Sennecke and then Parekh. There’s 5 more picks between us so we’d need two surprises for any of those 4 to be on the board.

As you can probably tell by now, I wouldn’t consider Eiserman the obvious pick if he was the only one left of that group. I have it as:

15 Luchanko
16 Eiserman
17 Hage
18 Solberg
19 Freij
20 Badinka
21 Surin
22 Eriksson
23 Jiricek
24 Pettersson
25 Artamonov
26 Chernyshov
27 Beaudoin
28 Greentree

This is the next tier for me.

I’ll speak to Luchanko as he’s probably the main one I have higher than most. I just see so much potential in him. He “only” had 74 pts in 68 games but that still led a low scoring Guelph team in scoring as a 17 year old. So not eye popping numbers but only 3 teams scored fewer goals than Guelph so when taken into account, his numbers are more impressive to me.

He reminds me a lot of Nick Suzuki and Robert Thomas. Players that might not absolutely jump off the screen with skill but have high, high hockey sense and are simply fantastic all-around hockey players.

He’s listed at 5’11” 183 lbs so not huge but plays C and plays the position well. Good shot and puck skills but not at the top of this class. He shines everywhere else though. He’s one of the best skaters in this draft IMO. Fast but his edge work is also very good. He also works his butt off. Don’t ever see him taking a shift off and he does all the little things right. Which brings me to his best attribute - his hockey sense. He’s simply a super smart player. Very good at finding open teammates, has very good positioning and is a distribution machine. I think he’s going to really pop next season.
I would be fine with him. Watched several games. Very good player on a poor team. Excellent skater.

I thought he turned it up a notch on their playoff run. I was tuning in to see how Buchinger looked post injury. Luchanko stood out with his speed and compete. His team just sucked. Curious how some talent around him will look like. He was noticeable in the U18s also in a defensive role I thought anyway.
 
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Blueston

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It really opens up here in a few picks IMO. And MacKenzie’s poll showed that - a very clear top-15 (but the order not being clear) and then opinions are all over the place.

Based on who is left, I have it in order of Helenius, Yak, Sennecke and then Parekh. There’s 5 more picks between us so we’d need two surprises for any of those 4 to be on the board.

As you can probably tell by now, I wouldn’t consider Eiserman the obvious pick if he was the only one left of that group. I have it as:

15 Luchanko
16 Eiserman
17 Hage
18 Solberg
19 Freij
20 Badinka
21 Surin
22 Eriksson
23 Jiricek
24 Pettersson
25 Artamonov
26 Chernyshov
27 Beaudoin
28 Greentree

This is the next tier for me.

I’ll speak to Luchanko as he’s probably the main one I have higher than most. I just see so much potential in him. He “only” had 74 pts in 68 games but that still led a low scoring Guelph team in scoring as a 17 year old. So not eye popping numbers but only 3 teams scored fewer goals than Guelph so when taken into account, his numbers are more impressive to me.

He reminds me a lot of Nick Suzuki and Robert Thomas. Players that might not absolutely jump off the screen with skill but have high, high hockey sense and are simply fantastic all-around hockey players.

He’s listed at 5’11” 183 lbs so not huge but plays C and plays the position well. Good shot and puck skills but not at the top of this class. He shines everywhere else though. He’s one of the best skaters in this draft IMO. Fast but his edge work is also very good. He also works his butt off. Don’t ever see him taking a shift off and he does all the little things right. Which brings me to his best attribute - his hockey sense. He’s simply a super smart player. Very good at finding open teammates, has very good positioning and is a distribution machine. I think he’s going to really pop next season.
I think you have hit on why I’m not worried about picking 16 in a 15 guy draft. Those 15 aren’t going to be the 15 best players when all is said and done, even if they are drafted there. There are several guys out there, luchenko being one, that will be available for us who look to be really good players. Just looking at your 10, I would expect 2-3 of those guys end up top 10 in redraft 5-10 years from now, like Thomas and Suzuki do in 2017 redrafts. And our scouting team seems to be pretty good at identifying those guys. Petterson is someone I like a lot, but any of the forwards on your list could be that guy.
 

STL fan in MN

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Was it hockey where they selected a player in the later rounds with the same last name but wrong player? I just remember a story years ago.
I don’t recall that. But a few picks that I recall making waves were:

Sabres draft Taro Tsujimoto in the 11th round of the 1974 draft. The Sabres completely made him up. Created a whole backstory for him and everything.

The Panthers tried numerous times at the 2003 draft to select Alex Ovechkin. Ovie missed the age cutoff for that draft by 3 days. Florida argued he was actually eligible due to leap years (would’ve made him 4 days older). The NHL clearly didn’t go for it and Ovie was drafted 1st overall the next year.

Then there’s the one that actually worked - the Canucks select Pavel Bure in the 6th round of the 1989 draft. There was a rule back then that made him eligible to be selected in the first 3 rounds but after that he had to have played a certain number of games. All of the official record keeping had him 1 game short. Vancouver discovered a game sheet where Bure played but it wasn’t listed correctly. There was a huge commotion at the time with all the other teams claiming Bure was ineligible. It took the NHL a year to determine that yes, he was eligible and Vancouver got to keep him. What makes it even more funny is that Detroit inquired about drafting him in the 5th round that year and was told he was ineligible. Vancouver just went ahead and did it a round later and let the chips fall where they may.
 

Drubilly

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I don’t recall that. But a few picks that I recall making waves were:

Sabres draft Taro Tsujimoto in the 11th round of the 1974 draft. The Sabres completely made him up. Created a whole backstory for him and everything.

The Panthers tried numerous times at the 2003 draft to select Alex Ovechkin. Ovie missed the age cutoff for that draft by 3 days. Florida argued he was actually eligible due to leap years (would’ve made him 4 days older). The NHL clearly didn’t go for it and Ovie was drafted 1st overall the next year.

Then there’s the one that actually worked - the Canucks select Pavel Bure in the 6th round of the 1989 draft. There was a rule back then that made him eligible to be selected in the first 3 rounds but after that he had to have played a certain number of games. All of the official record keeping had him 1 game short. Vancouver discovered a game sheet where Bure played but it wasn’t listed correctly. There was a huge commotion at the time with all the other teams claiming Bure was ineligible. It took the NHL a year to determine that yes, he was eligible and Vancouver got to keep him. What makes it even more funny is that Detroit inquired about drafting him in the 5th round that year and was told he was ineligible. Vancouver just went ahead and did it a round later and let the chips fall where they may.
Had NO idea about Tsujimoto! There is a Sabres mod that uses the name. Makes total sense now. Duh

That would have been something if Bure was on those Red Wings teams of the 90s. Sheesh!
 

STL fan in MN

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I think you have hit on why I’m not worried about picking 16 in a 15 guy draft. Those 15 aren’t going to be the 15 best players when all is said and done, even if they are drafted there. There are several guys out there, luchenko being one, that will be available for us who look to be really good players. Just looking at your 10, I would expect 2-3 of those guys end up top 10 in redraft 5-10 years from now, like Thomas and Suzuki do in 2017 redrafts. And our scouting team seems to be pretty good at identifying those guys. Petterson is someone I like a lot, but any of the forwards on your list could be that guy.
Yeah, totally true. Lots of people, me included, see a pretty clear drop off after 13-15 guys but obviously it’s not going to end up that way. I’m having a harder time this year really separating guys and having definitive opinions about them. I’ve resorted my list way more this year than last for example. Doesn’t have the depth or top-end talent of last year but the more I dig into this year’s draft, there’s some quality depth…just not a lot of separation.

We’ll just have to trust our scouts to find the right guy that perhaps won’t be obvious and a bit of a diamond in the rough. But they’ve shown to be quality observers of talent so I’m feeling pretty good about it too.
 

STL fan in MN

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MBN with a goal and 2 assists today in Norway’s win over Great Britain. Pretty sure their tournament is done now though. He’s someone I’d certainly be comfortable with at 16.
 
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Blueston

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i wanted to put a bow on the u18s. thoughts on usa team up next. hagens was awesome, but the draft eligible forwards were more of a mixed bag. defense was bit thin.

eiserman- i don't like him as player. he obviously has skill, but he just doesn't play like you would want. he doesn't seem to create opportunities for teammates. but dang he can shoot. i could see him going 4 or 20 or anywhere in between. i don't want him. he just gives me too many walhlstrom and bellow vibes. even mike hoffman i see as comp. maybe he is owen tippett and you are glad you took him, but i would rather someone else take that chance.

stiga i liked. gave me some jaden schwartz vibes. always seemed to be around puck, can play with anyone, made things happen. he made biggest impression of draft eligible americans to me. i think he would be reach at 16, but i like him in 20s.

ziemer/humphreys/plante/bednarik- these guys all look like 2nd-4th round picks. i don't think any will be stars, all could be good players, none really excite me. i'd be fine if we took any with 3rd or 4th round pick, albeit not terribly excited, and wouldn't be surprised if 1 or 2 end up as good middle 6 player. but also wouldn't be surprised if they all don't amount to much beyond okay bottom 6er.

the other guy i want to mention for us is van vleet. he was 13th forward for much of tourney, but he has nice physical package and i could see him becoming pretty good bottom 6 guy, perhaps even 3c. i'd look at him around 5th as value pick.

now for the d. again, only focusing on draft eligibles. i thought whipple looked much better than in previous viewings. he has some raw skill, but he hasn't thrived in the program as much as you would have hoped. i'm not super high on him but i could see him as guy you take flyer on in rounds 6-7 and hope he comes out of college a more mature player.

skahan is potentially a joel edmundson type, but he lacks a bit of fluidity as athlete you'd like to see. and i don't love puck skills. i could see him as maybe a late 2nd or 3rd that you hope develops in ncaa. i think he ends up a 5-6 guy, but i think he has decent chance of reaching nhl.

hutson- he isn't really my type of d, as watching krug and peru have biased me against small d. but he isn't as tiny as his brother and obviously has strong puck skills. and maybe he grows another inch or so and ends up almost normal size. i think he goes in 2nd, but hopefully not to us. but i wouldn't be surprised if he ends up good nhl player.

emery is the guy on us d who interest me most (hensler too, but he is '25 eligible). he is skinny but has frame that once he fills out should be a beast. already great strength and skates well for his size. strong defensively. i think he has a bit more o than he has shown this year, but we are looking at brayden schneider/k'andre miller/mattias samuellson level offense, not high end. i see him playing in top 4, either as 2nd to more skilled partner or as part of shutdown 2nd pair. i have him around 20, so he would be a bit of reach at 16 but if he is our guy i'd be good with grabbing him there.
 
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