Speculation: 2024-25 Roster thread

[Reveille1984]

Hopefully Terry pulls his head out next year and regains some form.

Before this season I think a lot of us figured $7M AAV was fair for both sides. If he puts up another dud next year, that contract is going to start looking pretty rough even with the cap increase.

 

[SoCal Dreaming]

To me it's all growing pains especially from the group that was with the team on previous season. They were used to having the freedom offensively that it took them awhile to adjust to Cronins defensive minded scheme.

My take is that, Cronin is having them work on the defensive side because they were never previously taught or practiced that way. He probably thinks players like Z, Leo, Mac and Terry are offensively gifted that they should be able to create offense regardless of the system. They'll learn what they can or can't do offensively or defensively in different scenarios. Learning tendencies from your linemates. The problem is injuries happened.

 

[Hockey Duckie]

You also need to be consistent, if the offense didn’t produce as well even though it had more talent and you’re going to blame that on Cronin, then be consistent and give him credit for the defense being better. Either he has no effect either way, or he does, but you’re picking and choosing. You say you don’t know whether we did better on Defense was due to the fact there was more talent on defense or because of Cronin, but won’t admit that our forwards could have been affected by factors other than Cronin as well.

Of the forwards that were here under Eakins and Cronin, Vatrano did better, Mac did better, Henrique did better, Strome did the same, Carrick did better. I’ll leave out Lundestrom even though he had better pace, and Jones was on a similar pace but who knows whether he does better or worse.

The players who did worse were Terry, Silf and Zegras. 2 of those had pretty significant injuries, the other became a new dad. So if all these major players produced better under Cronin, perhaps there were other factors (injuries) at play.

For shits and giggles, what was our record with all 8 of those top players you keep referring to in the lineup at the same time?

We added two more top-6 players in Carlsson and Killorn to last year's group. Our forward group this year had injuries in our top-6 (which we had 8 of), but they scored more than last year's top-6 and played more games. You could actually read the tables provided to you to prevent you from asking questions already answered. It's essentially a 1 to 1 top-6 offensive comparison.

Our defensive group also had a lot of injuries, but we had a lot more talent depth. I don't know if that's on Cronin or just the roster. Again, it's hard to tell when everyone got replaced from last year except for Fowler. We got lucky with waiver wire pickup Lindstrom (+12) as well as had Zell come up from the AHL.

GA
2021-22, Eakins = 271
2022-23, Eakins = 338
2023-24, Cronin = 294

Holy shit, Batman, Eakins' 2021-22 season must know how to teach the defense because he's a +23 GA from Cronin's. Or does does mean YOU ARE GIVING EAKINS CREDIT FOR BEING A GOOD COACH?!

Hyping up our forward group when we scored less than last year's group isn't a great argument. Cronin running the team hard probably caused a lot of unnecessary injuries to Z, Mac, and Lundy.

We still comeback to this...

GF and GA
Last year: GF = 209, GA = 338
This year: GF = 200, GA = 294

Record
Last year: 23-47-12 (58 pts)
This year: 26-50-5 (59 pts)

I can't hype the coaching when the coaching doesn't know how to improve our overall record with a better roster. Eakins would have earned more points with this year's roster.

 

[DuckDuckGetz]

I thought he played very poorly early on, in between injuries. That was the source of some of my worry about Cronin stifling the skill players, especially since Terry looked like shit too, and Carlsson was only so-so. Z came back in a pretty big way to end the year which puts a little of that concern to bed.

Still, I wonder if we'll ever see another Michigan.

The real Michigans are the friends you make along the way

 

[ScarTroy]

I can't hype the coaching when the coaching doesn't know how to improve our overall record with a better roster. Eakins would have earned more points with this year's roster.

That’s pure conjecture, but par of the course I guess.

And whenever you are ready we can talk about our record with an actual healthy improved roster.

 

[DuckDuckGetz]

I think some here also overestimate what is expected from a $7M player... Terry was about 10 points off the median for forwards making $6.5-7.5m.

If you take off Nylander (who already has a $12m contract), Pettersson ($11.6m signed) and Reinhart, who will probably cash in somewhere north of 9-10m, Terry's 54 points are only 7 points off the median of that group. And that's on a down year.

This isn't 2013 anymore.... Elite players aren't making $7m, with the exception of a couple players like Connor, which is one of the better contracts in the league.

 

[Reveille1984]

Elite players aren't making $7M, but most players around Terry's age and cap hit outperformed him in the 23-24 season, and scoring is way up in general. Having your $49M man not even sniff the top 100 amongst qualified forwards in PPG or points is pretty brutal.

Even if you filter by this past season's cap hit being between $6.0-7.5M and filter from age 23-30 ("prime" forward years), the only players worse than Terry on a PPG basis are Cirelli and Cozens. Once you start adding guys from like age 32-35 then yeah his numbers start to look comparable, but that's a bit disingenuous when he's supposed to be in his prime scoring years and where his contract has the most positive value.

If he bounces back to his 0.9 PPG pace from his first two "breakout" seasons then we're fine (and he definitely can with a healthier/better roster), but once he starts dipping into the 0.7 PPG and lower range is where things get dicey.

 

[ScarTroy]

Elite players aren't making $7M, but most players around Terry's age and cap hit outperformed him in the 23-24 season, and scoring is way up in general. Having your $49M man not even sniff the top 100 amongst qualified forwards in PPG or points is pretty brutal.

Even if you filter by this past season's cap hit being between $6.0-7.5M and filter from age 23-30 ("prime" forward years), the only players worse than Terry on a PPG basis are Cirelli and Cozens. Once you start adding guys from like age 32-35 then yeah his numbers start to look comparable, but that's a bit disingenuous when he's supposed to be in his prime scoring years and where his contract has the most positive value.

If he bounces back to his 0.9 PPG pace from his first two "breakout" seasons then we're fine (and he definitely can with a healthier/better roster), but once he starts dipping into the 0.7 PPG and lower range is where things get dicey.

I’ll play devils advocate even though I was also very unhappy with Terry this year, but those guys you are comparing him to around the league may have put up similar numbers as Terry if they were on this team. Especially when he’s going to be matched against top pairings most nights due to being our best offensive threat. How many of those guys in the 6-7.5 mil cap hit range have a Kucherov, Matthews, etc to hide behind and get more favorable matchups?

 

[Gliff]

Terry had a bad year. Anyone saying different is blind, but you guys are acting like he should be dumped or something. He was terrible this year and still was only 13 points off his career high.

 

[Reveille1984]

I’ll play devils advocate even though I was also very unhappy with Terry this year, but those guys you are comparing him to around the league may have put up similar numbers as Terry if they were on this team. Especially when he’s going to be matched against top pairings most nights due to being our best offensive threat. How many of those guys in the 6-7.5 mil cap hit range have a Kucherov, Matthews, etc to hide behind and get more favorable matchups?

I agree. This was an odd year in terms of injuries and overall cohesion with none of our top guys ever really getting consistent playtime together.

I think he'll have a better season next year.

 

[Leonardo87]

Terry had a bad year. Anyone saying different is blind, but you guys are acting like he should be dumped or something. He was terrible this year and still was only 13 points off his career high.

Terry regressed there is no way to sugarcoat it, but he should still be in the Top 6, just not sure he should be with Carlsson. Unless he changes his game like he did skating with Getzlaf a couple of seasons ago and let's Leo carry most of the play. They both have to stop the hero puck crap, but is it on them or the system/coaching?

Which, I put a lot of the blame for Terry's regression on Cronin and his system. I also think our rookies would have done better, and how they did was still remarkable, imo, under this system and poor special teams.

I throw blame at Cronin sure, but I am not going to run him out , he should get another season to figure things out since he is a rookie himself. I hope him and Verbeek agree that he needs new assistants and that he needs to let players play to their strengths and leave Z the F alone to do his thing, lol.

Special teams were a disaster, more so the PK than the PP. But we have enough skill on this team to have a well over 20% PP.

 

[DuckDuckGetz]

Terry had a bad year. Anyone saying different is blind, but you guys are acting like he should be dumped or something. He was terrible this year and still was only 13 points off his career high.

You said this much more succinctly than I did lol.

To add, I think he will improve his career high but even if he doesn't, IMO hovering between 60-70 points is pretty in line with a $7M player in today's dollars.

 

[duxfan1101]

Both of them seem like good, smart guys.

 

[Dryish]

Laughing at Frenchie accidentally calling Colangelo Sam Cogliano and cursing himself for it. Loved Colangelo's response to that too: "There's worse things to be called."

 

[MCB]

Both of them seem like good, smart guys.

I hope no one on the trade forums sees this. Because of cutters shirt now I fear a thousand cutter to LA threads.

 

[The Midnight Burrito]

Both of them seem like good, smart guys.

I hope Colangelo works out, I've become attached to him in a short amount of time.

 

[Dr Johnny Fever]

 

[CrazyDuck4u]

I hope Colangelo works out, I've become attached to him in a short amount of time.

Verbeek praised him alot.. Hes here to stay

 

[Dr Johnny Fever]

Here’s Derek answering all your twitter questions…

 

[Kalv]

Fowler looks stressed or weird visually. Not sure what to make of it.

But a great vid. I agree with the guys, with all the frustration I think there is a base of a good optimism.

The more I watch the more I'm convinced that Gudas should be our next captain. I think he stands out from the other candidates right now. At first I thought no - he's new to the franchise (who's not tho, ha), and kind of old. But yeah, I think he sounds like a good leader

 

[Dr Johnny Fever]

Fowler looks stressed or weird visually. Not sure what to make of it.

But a great vid. I agree with the guys, with all the frustration I think there is a base of a good optimism.

The more I watch the more I'm convinced that Gudas should be our next captain. I think he stands out from the other candidates right now. At first I thought no - he's new to the franchise (who's not tho, ha), and kind of old. But yeah, I think he sounds like a good leader

Fowler looked 40 years old to me.

 

[WhatTheDuck]

Fowler looks stressed or weird visually. Not sure what to make of it.

But a great vid. I agree with the guys, with all the frustration I think there is a base of a good optimism.

The more I watch the more I'm convinced that Gudas should be our next captain. I think he stands out from the other candidates right now. At first I thought no - he's new to the franchise (who's not tho, ha), and kind of old. But yeah, I think he sounds like a good leader

He's taken a couple pretty wicked pucks to the face, including that one a couple months ago. Starting to look more like a grizzled veteran as they call them.

 

[Hockey Duckie]

Fowler looked 40 years old to me.

He's been playing over 24 minutes a game for the past three years, with two of those years lacking help in the top-4. This past year, he was babysitting lots of rookies with LaCombe, Luneau, and Zell.

 

[FiveHoleTickler]

I leave you scoundrels alone for one minute and you start suggesting we trade Terry? That's one step away from making Zegras trade proposals. Absolutely brainless.

 

[Hockey Duckie]

I saw the following chart from the Ducks' forum on Reddit by golfy_m8, Skater Percentile Ranking. (Source) I have no idea where the graphics were generated from to find the definitions of the stats presented such as On-ice Line Finishing and On-Ice Goaltending. The few bits of info shared was from the reddit thread.

SVA = Score and Venue adjusted.
Deployment difficulty is another term for DZone starts.

Forwards are compared to other forwards. Similarly, defensemen are compared to other defensemen. 15 games played required for the comp.