Player Discussion: 2023 Vezina Finalist Connor Hellebuyck

[Romang67]

If I have to explain to you why shot quality is a subjective stat that doesn't translate very well to numbers, then we don't even have a starting place to begin.

This isn't baseball calling balls and strikes.

Oh so the stats are actually incorrect? We manage to be a middling team despite being right about league worst in shot metrics, even though we're not getting above average goaltending.

Good thing you have an objective stat that contains information about shot location and quality, but shows that Hellebuyck is below average.

 

[AKAChip]

If I have to explain to you why shot quality is a subjective stat that doesn't translate very well to numbers, then we don't even have a starting place to begin.

This isn't baseball calling balls and strikes.

Ah yes... the infallibly objective strike call in baseball.

 

[White Out 902]

View attachment 310717

It's interesting how you don't even realize you're on the wrong side of this meme

 

[AKAChip]

It's interesting how you don't even realize you're on the wrong side of this meme

There is literally no stat where Hellebuyck is even average in this season. He’s been terrific across the board. The only metric you have to “prove” that he’s mediocre is your own eye test and based on your history of opinion on Hellebuyck, forgive us if we’re snide when you post about how you’ll be waiting for the praise to roll in when the board realizes you were right all along. Especially since you like to lurk in the weeds until he has a game with 3+ goals against to make grandiose statements.

 

[White Out 902]

There is literally no stat where Hellebuyck is even average in this season. The only metric you have to “prove” that he’s mediocre is your own eye test and based on your history of opinion on Hellebuyck, forgive us if we’re snide when you post about how you’ll be waiting for the praise to roll in when the board realizes you were right all along.

I only wrote that he was trending in the wrong direction. I even suggested that I can't blame Helley as the team wasn't good enough.

If you want to worship at the alter of a specific player... Go nuts. I don't idolize individual players.

 

[AKAChip]

I only wrote that he was trending in the wrong direction. I even suggested that I can't bring blame Helley as the team wasn't good enough.

If you want to worship at the alter of a specific player... Go nuts. I don't idolize individual players.

You knew what you were doing posting that in the Hellebuyck thread after that game.

 

[White Out 902]

You knew what you were doing posting that in the Hellebuyck thread after that game.

Oh sorry I didn't realize that you knew my inner thoughts and intentions.

 

[Joe Hallenback]

Clearly its Hellys fault he isn't getting shutout after shutout

aye carumba some people

 

[objectiveposter]

helle isnt the reason the jets are currently out of a playoff spot... but it sucks he wasnt able to sustain his vezina level goaltending like he did a few seasons ago. Last year brossoit was there to bail out the jets when helle was mediocre....this year brossoit has been trash which only compounds the problem in net.

 

[White Out 902]

Save % has absolutely cratered to 917. Wasn't it 930 or 929?

 

[JetsFan815]

Save % has absolutely cratered to 917. Wasn't it 930 or 929?

Still #4 in the league in Goals Saved Above Expected.

 

[White Out 902]

Still #4 in the league in Goals Saved Above Expected.

How many extra points does that equate to? Are we in a wild card spot with that?

Is there a graph you can share?

 

[JetsFan815]

How many extra points does that equate to? Are we in a wild card spot with that?

Is there a graph you can share?

Evolving-Hockey

Sort by GSAx column. By almost any available metric this season he has either been very good or great or at the very least comfortably above league average in the top 1/3rd of the league.

 

[Ducky10]

Evolving-Hockey

Sort by GSAx column. By almost any available metric this season he has either been very good or great or at the very least comfortably above league average in the top 1/3rd of the league.

Except the White Out 403 eye test metric. He needs some work on that one. It’s very concerning...::

 

[White Out 902]

Except the White Out 403 eye test metric. He needs some work on that one. It’s very concerning...::

I feel like I'm being gaslighted.

Save % is a black and white number. There is no eye test. The eye test is the metric people are trotting out to defend Helleys brutal play as of late, "expected goals". It's a subjective stat based on shot quality, another subjective stat.

Black is white and cats and dogs are hugging it out in this thread.

 

[Duke749]

How many extra points does that equate to? Are we in a wild card spot with that?

Is there a graph you can share?

Why do you hate goalies so much? Like hell dude? We have no defensive structure and you continue to be obsessed with goalies.

 

[Imcanadianeh]

Evolving-Hockey

Sort by GSAx column. By almost any available metric this season he has either been very good or great or at the very least comfortably above league average in the top 1/3rd of the league.

he is definitely ranks first in the old “allowing the first shot of the night to be a goal” stat.

Let’s be realistic Hellebuyck started the season not great, went on a ridiculous run for ~15 games and has been bad for the last ~15 games.

Even if he play below average for the remainder of the season his advanced stats will still be heavily skewed because of that 15 game stretch.

the defense certainly is a huge problem and they aren’t doing Hellebuyck any favors but Hellebuyck sure is struggling.

 

[tbcwpg]

I feel like I'm being gaslighted.

Save % is a black and white number. There is no eye test. The eye test is the metric people are trotting out to defend Helleys brutal play as of late, "expected goals". It's a subjective stat based on shot quality, another subjective stat.

Black is white and cats and dogs are hugging it out in this thread.

Save % also says the goalie who makes 3 saves on 3 shots is better than the goalie who makes 39 saves on 40 shots.

Hellebuyck is a top goalie in the league. Everyone except you thinks he's the only reason the Jets haven't cratered this season to Detroit levels of bad.

I think Pavelec scarred you pretty badly.

 

[Duke749]

he is definitely ranks first in the old “allowing the first shot of the night to be a goal” stat.

Let’s be realistic Hellebuyck started the season not great, went on a ridiculous run for ~15 games and has been bad for the last ~15 games.

Even if he play below average for the remainder of the season his advanced stats will still be heavily skewed because of that 15 game stretch.

the defense certainly is a huge problem and they aren’t doing Hellebuyck any favors but Hellebuyck sure is struggling.

He started like 1-2 bad games and then went on a run for about 2 months. You’re exaggerating heavily.

And of course a goalie will look bad when there isn’t anything resembling defense in front of him. That’s why he doesn’t look calm because he knows dam well the guys are hanging him out to dry in front of him.

 

[White Out 902]

Save % also says the goalie who makes 3 saves on 3 shots is better than the goalie who makes 39 saves on 40 shots.

Hellebuyck is a top goalie in the league. Everyone except you thinks he's the only reason the Jets haven't cratered this season to Detroit levels of bad.

I think Pavelec scarred you pretty badly.

Agree to disagree. At this rate Helley will finish with a save rate over the entire season below his career average, and I take save% over large data samples as the final say on a goaltender. Have a good morning

 

[Romang67]

I feel like I'm being gaslighted.

Save % is a black and white number. There is no eye test. The eye test is the metric people are trotting out to defend Helleys brutal play as of late, "expected goals". It's a subjective stat based on shot quality, another subjective stat.

Black is white and cats and dogs are hugging it out in this thread.

Your not understanding something does not equate to gaslighting.

 

[White Out 902]

Your not understanding something does not equate to gaslighting.

Do you know the difference between subjective and objective? No offense, a serious question.

 

[Romang67]

What is it you believe that I dont understand here, specifically?

xSV% is a better predictor of goaltending performance than existing models

Assuming no improvement in the model in the past 5 years, that article is still pretty damning to your case that improved goaltending models are "gaslighting".

And since you edited your post to not just include the incorrectly applied meme: yes. I know English.

 

[tbcwpg]

What is it you believe that I dont understand here, specifically?

xSV% is a better predictor of goaltending performance than existing models

Assuming no improvement in the model in the past 5 years, that article is still pretty damning to your case that improved goaltending models are "gaslighting".

Giving up 4 goals, each about a foot from the net, on 29 shots, most of which were also about a foot from the net, is clearly the sign of a bad goalie because the percentage of those shots is under 91.5%, clearly.

 

[Romang67]

Giving up 4 goals, each about a foot from the net, on 29 shots, most of which were also about a foot from the net, is clearly the sign of a bad goalie because the percentage of those shots is under 91.5%, clearly.

Yep. And we can't improve on existing models, which is why we still use +/- instead of xGA.