2023 Kings Prospect Rankings Post-Mortem Discussion

[King'sPawn]

I just want to say again thank you to everyone who voted and discussed. Obviously there are some points of unanimity (pretty incredible, for example, that Shafigullin is unchanged from his rankings for any of us after a couple years, even though he's scored at a point-per-game pace since this KHL season has started), but there are also some major points of disagreement. Which is awesome, because we all have different criteria we utilize to rank or pick players.

It's probably not structured too well visually or logically, but what can you do? With the 2023 poll, the number in parenthesis is how much the player has moved compared to the 2021 poll, and the number in my personal rankings are based on where I rate the players relative to the 2023 poll.

It will be too much of a novel to put a breakdown of how my rankings differ. Here's a general overview though:
- Potential has a lot of weight to me. Consequently, younger players benefit more. I know that's not everyone's cup of tea, but it's definitely a factor to me.
- Player's role + position is a factor. By sheer virtue of, if it's a higher priority position in the org, they are more likely to get more opportunity to succeed and be put in a position. For example, a certain LD the Kings just drafted may benefit from LA putting more effort into taking care of that player.
- Scoring/production is definitely a factor, and consequently, more defensive players fall to the wayside a bit. But I try to look at more than just this year's production - I also try to factor in how their production has grown from season to season, and how well they produce when put in different leagues.
- Of course, personal observations play a part, too. This should go without saying, but I didn't want it to come across as just stat watching to take part in my rankings. Of course, some I watch less than (like the Russian players) may have me leaning more towards stats, but I make a genuine effort to watch as many of the players as much as possible.

Ranking	2023 Poll	2021 Poll	My own ranking (for 2023)
1	Brandt Clarke, D (+1)	Quinton Byfield, F	Brandt Clarke, D (+0)
2	Alex Turcotte, F (+1)	Brandt Clarke, D	Koehn Ziemmer, F (+6)
3	Francesco Pinelli, F (+7)	Alex Turcotte, F	Alex Laferriere, F (+1)
4	Alex Laferriere, F (+19)	Arthur Kaliyev, F	Jakub Dvorak, D (+3)
5	Martin Chromiak F (+8)	Brock Faber, D	Francesco Pinelli, F (-2)
6	Samuel Fagemo, F (+2)	Rasmus Kupari, F	Erik Portillo, G, (+4)
7	Jakub Dvorak, D (N/A)	Akil Thomas, F	Samuel Fagemo, F (-1)
8	Koehn Ziemmer, F (N/A)	Samuel Fagemo, F	Alex Turcotte, F (-6)
9	Kirill Kirsanov, D (+5)	Tyler Madden, F	Akil Thomas, F (+4)
10	Erik Portillo, G (N/A)	Francesco Pinelli, F	Aatu Jamsen, F (+4)
11	Samuel Helenius, F (+6)	Helge Grans, D	Martin Chromiak, F (-6)
12	Kenny Connors, F (N/A)	Kale Clague, D	Jacob Moverare, D (+5)
13	Akil Thomas, F (-6)	Martin Chromiak, F	Hampton Slukynsky, G (+5)
14	Aatu Jamsen, F (+13)	Kirill Kirsanov, D	Kirill Kirsanov, D (-5)
15	Kasper Simontaival, F (+5)	Kim Nousiainen, D	Matthew Mania, D (+5)
16	Jack Hughes, F (N/A)	Jordan Spence, D	Kenny Connors, F (-4)
17	Jacob Moverare, D (+1)	Samuel Helenius, F	Samuel Helenius, F (-6)
18	Hampton Slukynsky, G (N/A)	Jacob Moverare, D	Angus Booth, D (+7)
19	Otto Salin, D (N/A)	Vladimir Tkachev, F	Ryan Conmy, F (+3)
20	Matthew Mania, D (N/A)	Kasper Simontaival, F	Kasper Simontaival, F (-5)
21	Kim Nousiainen, D (-6)	Lukas Parik, G	Otto Salin, D (-2)
22	Ryan Conmy, F (N/A)	Austin Strand, D	Kaleb Lawrence, F (+10)
23	Tyler Madden, F (-14)	Alex Laferriere, F	Jared Wright, F (+5)
24	Cole Krygier, D (N/A)	Andre Lee, F	Andre Lee, F (+2)
25	Angus Booth, D (N/A)	Sean Durzi, D	Jack Hughes, F (-9)
26	Andre Lee, F (-2)	Jacob Ingham, G	Jack Sparkes, D (+1)
27	Jack Sparkes, D (N/A)	Aatu Jamsen, F	Ben Meehan, D (+4)
28	Jared Wright, F (N/A)	Ben Meehan, D	Kim Nousiainen, D (-7)
29	Taylor Ward, F (N/A)	Aidan Dudas, F	Tyler Madden, F (-6)
30	Juho Markkanen, G (+1)	Johan Sodergran, F	Braden Doyle, D (+3)
31	Ben Meehan, D (-3)	Juho Markkanen, G	Taylor Ward, F (-2)
32	Kaleb Lawrence, F (N/A)	David Hrenak, G	Cole Krygier, D (-8)
33	Braden Doyle, D (+0)	Braden Doyle, D	Juho Markkanen, G (-3)
34	Bulat Shafigullin, F (+0)	Bulat Shafigullin, F	Bulat Shafigullin, F (+0)
35		Brayden Burke, F
36		Matthew Villalta, G
37		Markus Phillips, D
38		Alexander Dergachyov, F

I did also want to consider how much updates and discussions have factored in with the rankings amongst all of us. Would some players get more hype or get ranked higher if they were playing better in some of these leagues? Or is it because they are playing in some of these leagues (like Liiga, Germany, etc) that has us (including media personnel) just gloss over any progress they may or may not be making?

But also, what are some of your lists, if you have one? With a couple more years under Blake's tenure, do we have any thoughts about how the prospects have been handled? Laferriere moved up 19 spots in 2 years, and Jamsen moved up 13. But Madden fell down 14 spots. The pool has shrunk. Yet, miraculously, there are some players remarkably close to where they were originally ranked Like Moverare, Doyle, and Shafigullin.

With some of the highly ranked players who have not yet graduated, the temperature remains relatively the same, like Turcotte. Is it name recognition? Or has how he's worked through the obstacles/injuries lent a more favorable reaction?

One more month until the season starts. Hoping this passes the time a little bit more for those who enjoy diving into this stuff. Or maybe you just want to call me dumb because of my list.

Ultimately, this is what the lineup would look kind of like, based on the voting:
Chromiak - Turcotte - Laferriere
Connors - Pinelli - Fagemo
Jamsen - Helenius - Ziemmer
Thomas - Hughes - Simontaival
Lee - Conmy - Madden
Lawrence - Wright - Ward
Shafigullin

Dvorak - Clarke
Kirsanov - Salin
Moverare - Mania
Nousiainen - Krygier
Booth - Sparkes
Meehan - Doyle

Portillo
Slukynsky
Markkanen

Click to read more...

 

[Statto]

I think with Turcotte (and Thomas - I also ranked him higher than the poll) the NHL talent is there and that’s why he’s ranked highly. I think we all have serious doubts about his fitness and physical capability but I assume we are thinkin/hoping he will resolve it at some point.

interesting to not Stoll mentioned both on the recently posted podcast, stating as an almost comment in passing about how they were both physically much stronger (I’m paraphrasing). Let’s hope.

I also agree that Ziemmer is ranked too low because if he puts it together the upside is huge. I’ve learned more since we voted for him and he is definitely and exciting prospect.

Portillo is clearly the #1 goalie prospect but no idea if we rated him correctly. I‘ve seen very little of him, certainly not enough to have a view on how to rank him vs skaters.

 

[Vino]

I just don't understand from where this Akil Thomas -hype comes. A hard worker, below average size, below average skating (in my mind skating is his biggest weakness, slow first three steps, zero accleration), a good onetimer, average playmaking and injuryprone. He is not a true physical player or a skilled player. What his role is in the NHL? Fourth line center? Fourth line winger?

 

[Statto]

I just don't understand from where this Akil Thomas -hype comes. A hard worker, below average size, below average skating (in my mind skating is his biggest weakness, slow first three steps, zero accleration), a good onetimer, average playmaking and injuryprone. He is not a true physical player or a skilled player. What his role is in the NHL? Fourth line center? Fourth line winger?

Disagree with the assessment.

He does bring some grit (not suggesting he’s a wrecking ball but will drop the gloves) whilst bringing a nice skill set and game IQ. He has an eye for goal and was one of the best 2-3 guys in Ontario when his shoulder went on him. He probably had middle six upside at one point but he’s probably a bottom six guy, with 3rd line and PK aspirations. He’s also a culture defining player that if he becomes a fixture could wear a letter. I cannot remember my thoughts on his skating which makes me think it was probably middling…

His injury issue’s certainly affect his chances but the above is why he’s rooted for. I would not say ‘injury prone’ as it’s a specific, albeit significant issue.

 

[tigermask48]

Portillo is clearly the #1 goalie prospect but no idea if we rated him correctly. I‘ve seen very little of him, certainly not enough to have a view on how to rank him vs skskaters.

Goalies are always incredibly hard to place unless it's someone that is coming into the organization with an elite pedigree, a Bernier, or Marc Andre-Fleury for example. I don't think Quick was ever even the top ranked goalie for the Kings before he broke into the NHL. Martin Jones was rated below both Bernier and Chris Gibson at one point if I remember right.

 

[Statto]

Goalies are always incredibly hard to place unless it's someone that is coming into the organization with an elite pedigree, a Bernier, or Marc Andre-Fleury for example. I don't think Quick was ever even the top ranked goalie for the Kings before he broke into the NHL. Martin Jones was rated below both Bernier and Chris Gibson at one point if I remember right.

I’d become quite good at assessing goalies live as I know a coach that was a goalie and taught me a huge amount. So I can watch a senior goaltender and pick holes in their games (much harder on ‘tape’ (aging myself there). However assessing them for any sort of potential as kids is just a complete mystery. As such I’m quite happy to accept the rankings knowing that in most cases they will shift dramatically as time progresses.

I favour sound technique but it has to go with high compete which can’t really assess from afar. That compete is why Quick was such a success and Petersen has struggled so badly.

 

[bland]

My big take away is that a lot of folks are sleeping on Kenny Connors.

 

[King'sPawn]

I just don't understand from where this Akil Thomas -hype comes. A hard worker, below average size, below average skating (in my mind skating is his biggest weakness, slow first three steps, zero accleration), a good onetimer, average playmaking and injuryprone. He is not a true physical player or a skilled player. What his role is in the NHL? Fourth line center? Fourth line winger?

I disagree about Thomas' skating. It's his best feature. Unfortunately, injuries just affect players a lot - even with shoulder injuries, that can affect general skating mechanics (try to skate without moving your shoulders). Along with his skating, his utility to play in all positions, even sliding back on D when the team has been shorthanded, adds extra value.

Ultimately, yes, he's an energy player. But I'm convinced he would have had some NHL time by now if not for injuries.

My big take away is that a lot of folks are sleeping on Kenny Connors.

I'm ready to move him up quickly. My biggest concern is he'll eventually settle into being an energy player. I'm concerned he won't have much growth in offense at the NCAA level, and as he spends years in college with a consistent statline, expectations will dwindle and he'll top out as a bottom-six player who gets slow-boiled again.

 

[johnjm22]

For me Turcotte is lower, Ziemmer is higher, and Slukynsky is my darkhorse.

 

[King'sPawn]

Another little thing I wanted to outline but was too tired last night and forgot.

I wanted to illustrate the lists and how a draft can be impacted by this. It was a simple exercise that used my own list and the "poll" list. There were two paradigms: one where I get first pick and one where the poll gets first pick. Each side takes turns and picks the next highest on the list. This is just a raw representation of "best player available."

===========
IF I PICK FIRST
My team
Ziemmer - Thomas - Laferriere
Jamsen - Conmy - Lawrence
Wright

Dvorak - Clarke
Moverare - Mania
Booth - Sparkes
Meehan - Doyle

Portillo
Slukynsky
------------------
Poll team
Pinelli - Turcotte - Chromiak
Connors - Helenius - Fagemo
Simontaival - Hughes - Madden
Lee - Ward - Shafigullin

Kirsanov - Salin
Nousiainen - Krygier

Markkanen
========
IF POLL PICKS FIRST
Poll Team
Pinelli - Turcotte - Chromiak
Connors - Helenius - Fagemo
Simontaival - Hughes - Madden
Ward

Kirsanov - Clarke
Nousiainen - Salin
Krygier - Sparkes

Markkanen
---------------------------
My team
Ziemmer - Thomas - Laferriere
Jamsen - Conmy - Lawrence
Lee - Wright - Shafigullin

Dvorak - Moverare
Booth - Mania
Doyle - Meehan

Portillo
Slukynsky
===========

Now, I found this particularly interesting. A large portion of the teams are identical. Who picked first, with a couple exceptions, didn't matter. It's basically a swap of Clarke and Sparkes for Lee and Shafigillin.

Obviously teams don't pick like this. But it illustrates a point: the poll had Laferriere 4th overall, and unless they deviated from someone they ranked higher, there would be no way to draft that player.

If you increase the pool of prospects to 400+, and expand the scale to include 30 additional "lists", just how quickly these things can change. So, as we explore past and future drafts of "how could the Kings pass on x?" That player may be in the same tier or ranked just behind another player.

But you may find this exercise equally fun or interesting if you wanted to put your list against the poll or mine. Or, if you want to put your list up and have me do a mock draft with all 3, I can try that later this week.

 

[kingsboy11]

First off thanks for doing these series of polls @King'sPawn. Always appreciate your insights in the prospect pool.



In regards to the list, I have some nitpicks from where we voted.

I think Chromiak, Kirsanov, Fagemo, Simontaival and Helenius too high.

Dvorak, Ziemmer, Mania and Moverare I think are too low.

I would personally swap Laferriere and Pinelli, but I can live with that.

 

[Herby]

I agree with your rankings more than the poll results, but I am also one that is going to place more value on a player like Ziemmer who still has upside as an 18/19 YO and has more of a chance to maybe become a 2nd line player than guys like Laferriere and Turcotte, who may be more likely to play in the NHL, but do not have upside to be top 6 players. As we have learned the last couple of years, it's difficult to find and develop top 6 players, way more difficult than it is to find and develop depth players, which the Kings have done a good job of doing the last 15 years. You can say the same thing about Pinelli, he may ultimately not get there, but he is still young enough and showed enough in the two years since being drafted that maybe he has some scoring line potential if things break right.

Overall the prospect pool is in pretty bad shape, but that is to be expected when you trade so many picks and young players in addition to the many disappointing results from pretty high picks. We have to really hope that a guy like Dvorak can become another Faber and somebody outside the top 10 can be a Durzi type. And they can't trade anymore 1sts.

 

[lumbergh]

Seems like the shine has been taken off of Fagemo. As the owner of one of the better right handed one-timers on the team, he's got a good chance to make the team as a bottom sixer this season. One dimensional, but that one dimension is pretty great. If he can get some second power play time on the left wall he can show what he's got.

That last forward spot will be interesting to watch this training camp, between JAD, Lewis, and Fagemo, Turcotte as a dark horse.

 

[BigBrown]

What you hope to see from a good prospect is him becoming better and better. Fagemo seemed to take a step back last season, at least when looking at the numbers. Maybe not a red flag in this case but it's definitely a flag of some sort with a red-ish hue.

Hopefully he bounces back, I remember being very impressed with his motor at the U20 world junior tournaments. Could be an effective energy player with some offensive upside. A bit like Iafallo, if his board play can be strong enough.

 

[GoldenBearHockey]

What you hope to see from a good prospect is him becoming better and better. Fagemo seemed to take a step back last season, at least when looking at the numbers. Maybe not a red flag in this case but it's definitely a flag of some sort with a red-ish hue.

Hopefully he bounces back, I remember being very impressed with his motor at the U20 world junior tournaments. Could be an effective energy player with some offensive upside. A bit like Iafallo, if his board play can be strong enough.

He's not a board player though, we should play to his strengths, which is his shot, so every shift he just goes and sits in the high slot.....shouldn't have to be a two way player.....

 

[King'sPawn]

I honestly don't even think the shine has worn off on Fagemo. He's still rated higher than 2 years ago.

 

[bland]

I honestly don't even think the shine has worn off on Fagemo. He's still rated higher than 2 years ago.

Just the cheap fluorescent tubes used by management.

 

[Lt Dan]

I honestly don't even think the shine has worn off on Fagemo. He's still rated higher than 2 years ago.

 

[Herby]

I honestly don't even think the shine has worn off on Fagemo. He's still rated higher than 2 years ago.

True, but some of these guys rankings holding or improving is because the Kings graduated Kaliyev and Byfield and traded Faber and back to back 1st rounders. I think that is why Fagemo and a few others have been able to maintain their spots. Graduations are normal and part of this, but teams don't usually trade three valuable assets like that in such a short time.

If we keep all these guys it's probably.

1. Clarke
2. Faber
3. 2023 1st
4. 2022 1st

so guys (other than Clarke) would fall down 3 spots.

 

[King'sPawn]

True, but some of these guys rankings holding or improving is because the Kings graduated Kaliyev and Byfield and traded Faber and back to back 1st rounders. I think that is why Fagemo and a few others have been able to maintain their spots. Graduations are normal and part of this, but teams don't usually trade three valuable assets like that in such a short time.

If we keep all these guys it's probably.

1. Clarke
2. Faber
3. 2023 1st
4. 2022 1st

so guys (other than Clarke) would fall down 3 spots.

That's a fair point. I just don't think the ranking is necessarily an indictment on the perception of Fagemo, but more so on other players who just moved up.

 

[Herby]

That's a fair point. I just don't think the ranking is necessarily an indictment on the perception of Fagemo, but more so on other players who just moved up.

I think he makes the team, but it is going to take an injury to someone in the Top 9 for him to get a spot that is going to work out for him. He's another one of those Kings prospects (along with Thomas, Turcotte, Laf, JAD) where they aren't really good enough for Top 6 roles, but they also don't really fit with what the Kings (and most teams) want on the 4th line. I'm no Johnny Utah, but if you are going to have three pretty soft, smaller, scoring lines and an established 4C who is 5'8 you probably want some beef on the rest of the 4th line . So all these guys are kind of jammed into that new style 3rd line that is usually made up of energy guys who (hopefully) can score a bit. But then the issue becomes the Kings have thee veterans locked into that role, and two of them are signed for long-term. But there will be injuries and he will be right there, the PLD trade certainly helped break up some of the gridlock in front of Fagemo as far as making the team.

 

[Johnny Utah]

Exactly. Either Kayilev spends the year in Ontario or the Kings move Arvidsson - only way Fagemo steps into the top 9.

 

[lumbergh]

I think he makes the team, but it is going to take an injury to someone in the Top 9 for him to get a spot that is going to work out for him. He's another one of those Kings prospects (along with Thomas, Turcotte, Laf, JAD) where they aren't really good enough for Top 6 roles, but they also don't really fit with what the Kings (and most teams) want on the 4th line. I'm no Johnny Utah, but if you are going to have three pretty soft, smaller, scoring lines and an established 4C who is 5'8 you probably want some beef on the rest of the 4th line . So all these guys are kind of jammed into that new style 3rd line that is usually made up of energy guys who (hopefully) can score a bit. But then the issue becomes the Kings have thee veterans locked into that role, and two of them are signed for long-term. But there will be injuries and he will be right there, the PLD trade certainly helped break up some of the gridlock in front of Fagemo as far as making the team.

No team makes it through a season without injury to its top nine. I'm not cheering for it, but that's just a fact of life. If Fagemo makes it as the 13th forward, he'll get his games.

 

[lumbergh]

That's a fair point. I just don't think the ranking is necessarily an indictment on the perception of Fagemo, but more so on other players who just moved up.

Those other players who just moved up include Chromiak, Pinelli, and Laferierre, none who have done more than Fagemo at the AHL level. Shiny new toys, I guess. Fagemo has scored more goals in the NHL than every other prospect on the list combined.

We'll just see how it plays out in training camp and preseason.

 

[King'sPawn]

On an interesting note, the lowest ranked prospect, Bulat Shafigullin, is currently leading his KHL team (Nizhnekamsk Neftekhimik) in scoring. Though the two factors which contribute to the low ranking:
- it's the KHL, so him coming over is very low
- it's 4 points in 7 games, on one of the worst teams in the league (they have a 1-5-0-1 record, with 12 GF and 32 GA)