Prospect Info: 2023 HFDevils Prospect Rankings #8

[Guadana]

You guys are sleeping on players like Orlov , Karpovich and Barbosha. Orlov and Karpovich have potential to be top 4 Dmen while Vilen is more of a 3rd pairing d man if he pans out.

I think both Vilen and Orlov have quite the same style of play, they are close with their strength. And Vilen was a regular in pro hockey league so he is ahead in his development.
May be both are much stronger skaters and their tools for their role are working pretty well, so they should be higher in the rankings than Lenny because of his skating.

And I think Vilen has ceiling of “Siegenthaler/Marino” - even if he will not be productive, he can make a lot of work to protect his partner. And with Hamilton, Nemec and even Casey, it’s an important job and very conditional to say “third pair”. Ofcourse everything should work and click on nhl level.

Orlov looks like little better transitional player potentially, but again he should start to play regular role in KHL for being higher in the rankings. He can make it after next year.

With Karpovich it’s too early to say. He played only in MHL before and his game has a lot of potential but there were some issues with it. (We should remember Mukhamadullin had some issues too). Belorussian extra league isn’t the strongest, but still men’s league. Will see how he will perform.
Of course his ceiling is very promising. Two way top 4 physical and mobile defenseman. if he will hit it, he is our best defenseman prospect after Luke and Simon. But he is in earlier moment of his development, didn’t play in mens league at all, both Vilen and Orlov showed better positional thinking and much better defense without the puck.

I think with Vilen, Orlov and Karpovich we have better nhler than Bahl potentially, may be two or even three. As a Devil or not.

 

[forceten]

I agree with Guadana above. Was just going to post something similar, except shorter, and more stupid, and devilsblood would say my interjections of sarcasm or silliness weren't funny.

I do think the trio mentioned can be stellar players but there is a component to this that takes into account readiness / closeness to NHL, regardless of line. And Vilen's rise last year has him in the mix sooner than Orlov , Karpovich and Barbosha. But I think those three might be my next three votes.

 

[SJinNewJersey]

Vilen, add Artem Barabosha.

 

[Nubmer6]

I agree with Guadana above. Was just going to post something similar, except shorter, and more stupid, and devilsblood would say my interjections of sarcasm or silliness weren't funny.

I do think the trio mentioned can be stellar players but there is a component to this that takes into account readiness / closeness to NHL, regardless of line. And Vilen's rise last year has him in the mix sooner than Orlov , Karpovich and Barbosha. But I think those three might be my next three votes.

Yeah. Obviously the closer you are to the NHL, the more predictable you are. It's like looking at a potential hurricane track

 

[forceten]

Yeah. Obviously the closer you are to the NHL, the more predictable you are. It's like looking at a potential hurricane track

Of course it's optional to extend said track with a Sharpie. This is what happened with Brett Seney.

 

[Lou Bloom]

You guys are sleeping on players like Orlov , Karpovich and Barbosha. Orlov and Karpovich have potential to be top 4 Dmen while Vilen is more of a 3rd pairing d man if he pans out.

Barabosha was a 7th round pick that just put up 5 points in 48 games in the MHL this past season. Karpovich while interesting is still a 6th round pick who's highest level of play is the MHL.

Vilen just finished a season where he played a big role in a league much better than the MHL, on one of the better teams and was one of their best playoff performers en route to becoming runner up for the Liiga Championship.

Also by what logic have you decided that Vilen is more of a 3rd pairing D man if he pans out but Orlov and Karpovich have Top 4 potential? Just seems like an arbitrary designation.

 

[Guadana]

Barabosha was a 7th round pick that just put up 5 points in 48 games in the MHL this past season. Karpovich while interesting is still a 6th round pick who's highest level of play is the MHL.

Vilen just finished a season where he played a big role in a league much better than the MHL, on one of the better teams and was one of their best playoff performers en route to becoming runner up for the Liiga Championship.

Also by what logic have you decided that Vilen is more of a 3rd pairing D man if he pans out but Orlov and Karpovich have Top 4 potential? Just seems like an arbitrary designation.

Number of round means nothing. If it’s the way you are evaluating prospects, you should overthink it.
But I agree with you about Barabosha. 5 points in D+1 in MHL even for defensive defenseman is still not good result.

Karpovich has more offensive tools. Vilen is better positionaly with better gap control. it could be debatable, but Vilen was successful for his role in better league so he should be higher.

 

[Lou Bloom]

Number of round means nothing. If it’s the way you are evaluating prospects, you should overthink it.
But I agree with you about Barabosha. 5 points in D+1 in MHL even for defensive defenseman is still not good result.

When it comes to a draft that just concluded it certainly means something. We have evidence of 32 teams and how they decided the 2023 draft prospects should be valued. Will that change over the course of the following months and years? Absolutely, but right now there's no reason to value someone like Karpovich over a player in Vilen who's drastically risen his stock since being drafted and has faced much higher levels of competition.

 

[My3Sons]

You guys are sleeping on players like Orlov , Karpovich and Barbosha. Orlov and Karpovich have potential to be top 4 Dmen while Vilen is more of a 3rd pairing d man if he pans out.

You may very well be correct. When it comes to prospects I tend to want to watch them myself before deciding something like ultimate ceiling. I was surprised just how good Vilen looked last season in a heavily burdened role at the WJC. I’d say if he can improve his passing and shot maybe he’s a second pair guy because his basic defense and puck moving are quite good for a guy who is just 20.

 

[Guttersniped]

Went with Footie Pajamas because I think there’s something there but cool with Vilén winning. At least @Forge won’t yell at me again.

Add Malek. And then Misyul, so we get to a point where the poll is mostly just goalies vs. Russian defensemen. (And this is after we traded two Russian defensive prospects away.)

 

[Guadana]

When it comes to a draft that just concluded it certainly means something. We have evidence of 32 teams and how they decided the 2023 draft prospects should be valued. Will that change over the course of the following months and years? Absolutely, but right now there's no reason to value someone like Karpovich over a player in Vilen who's drastically risen his stock since being drafted and has faced much higher levels of competition.

Second part - absolutely, first part - no) evidence of 32 teams) no, man, it doesn't work this way and never was. Teams have preferences, worries, they know about availableness etc.
Evidence) you don't understand of what is what in this situation. And you are making logical mistake. or trying to substitution of concepts. It doesn't work with me. Vilen was better after the draft than a lot of prospects who was drafted before him. Like Bardakov, like Bratt, like Karpovich. Sharangovich wasn't. But Hauser or Mister The Great Van Hurtig wasn't too. Skills, physical aspect, iq, success, level of competition - that are the things we using to rank prospects. Number of round of the draft? Its a chocolate medal. Its important for early drafted guys, because it effect on the ELC. After that? There are tonns of guys like Boucher or second rounders with ok floor and low ceiling who will never be better prospects than some who was drafted in later rounds? Why someone drafted them? Don't asking me, go and ask gms. They like players who has floor of third pair defenseman and ceiling if third pair defenseman. Because they know what they will get. Why they couldn't draft belorusian prospects with much better ceiling? You know the answer. Karpovich isn't better than Vilen as a prospect IN THE MOMENT. Because Vilen is doing everything fine for his role and his development trajectory. He is in a couple of steps closer to nhl. May be even more steps. His floor is better. And I'm not giving Karpovich more points now. But when we compare him with players who was drafted in earlier rounds, but has no same tools or their trajectory isn't good, or both, than we should rank guy higher. Reason why a lot of people have Casey higher than Holtz. Im not agree with it now, in the moment, but its understandable. And Casey in miles away from nhl now if we will compare him with Holtz. And their positions on the draft mean nothing. Positions on the draft mean something in the moment of the draft. Only. They give nothing. No busts, no development, nothing. Its not about players. Never was.

Number on the draft is ONLY about scouting team. Is it good or bad. Player can't be better than players who was drafted after, he can be better than himself. We can't cry about ZACHA and blame Zacha for his drafting number. We can blame him for lazy plays and scouts who drafted him. We can blame scouts who didn't drafted Svozil or Ishimnikov and preferred Salminen or Cheslock. And if all the teams decided to not draft Karpovich and he will going to be good hockey player, its not his HUGE stock rising and special performance, its gm's standard decision to draft defensemen from MHL in later rounds. Its ok, I understand why, I understand they are available. But its not about their evaluation. Gms loves to draft mediocre NA players in second and third round because they have control under their development. Its a subjective, but reason. But definitely not about evaluating.

 

[devilsblood]

You guys are sleeping on players like Orlov , Karpovich and Barbosha. Orlov and Karpovich have potential to be top 4 Dmen while Vilen is more of a 3rd pairing d man if he pans out.

I think this speaks to the theme thats been brought up a bunch in these prospect threads: we are stacked.

Squires, who was drafted ahead of Karpovich, and put up a tick under a ppg, hasn’t even made it to the poles yet, and is probably outside our top 20.

Filmon just had a monster D+1 and might not make our top 10. Lenni at 7 is telling.

 

[devilsblood]

When it comes to a draft that just concluded it certainly means something. We have evidence of 32 teams and how they decided the 2023 draft prospects should be valued. Will that change over the course of the following months and years? Absolutely, but right now there's no reason to value someone like Karpovich over a player in Vilen who's drastically risen his stock since being drafted and has faced much higher levels of competition.

I agree with this sentiment in general but I do think it’s pretty clear that the MHL is either underscouted or there is a strong anti Russian bias currently(maybe one and the same) leading to those guys being drafted lower

May not be as exaggerated as some make out but I do think it’s a real thing.

 

[Lou Bloom]

Second part - absolutely, first part - no) evidence of 32 teams) no, man, it doesn't work this way and never was. Teams have preferences, worries, they know about availableness etc.
Evidence) you don't understand of what is what in this situation. And you are making logical mistake. or trying to substitution of concepts. It doesn't work with me. Vilen was better after the draft than a lot of prospects who was drafted before him. Like Bardakov, like Bratt, like Karpovich. Sharangovich wasn't. But Hauser or Mister The Great Van Hurtig wasn't too. Skills, physical aspect, iq, success, level of competition - that are the things we using to rank prospects. Number of round of the draft? Its a chocolate medal. Its important for early drafted guys, because it effect on the ELC. After that? There are tonns of guys like Boucher or second rounders with ok floor and low ceiling who will never be better prospects than some who was drafted in later rounds? Why someone drafted them? Don't asking me, go and ask gms. They like players who has floor of third pair defenseman and ceiling if third pair defenseman. Because they know what they will get. Why they couldn't draft belorusian prospects with much better ceiling? You know the answer. Karpovich isn't better than Vilen as a prospect IN THE MOMENT. Because Vilen is doing everything fine for his role and his development trajectory. He is in a couple of steps closer to nhl. May be even more steps. His floor is better. And I'm not giving Karpovich more points now. But when we compare him with players who was drafted in earlier rounds, but has no same tools or their trajectory isn't good, or both, than we should rank guy higher. Reason why a lot of people have Casey higher than Holtz. Im not agree with it now, in the moment, but its understandable. And Casey in miles away from nhl now if we will compare him with Holtz. And their positions on the draft mean nothing. Positions on the draft mean something in the moment of the draft. Only. They give nothing. No busts, no development, nothing. Its not about players. Never was.

Number on the draft is ONLY about scouting team. Is it good or bad. Player can't be better than players who was drafted after, he can be better than himself. We can't cry about ZACHA and blame Zacha for his drafting number. We can blame him for lazy plays and scouts who drafted him. We can blame scouts who didn't drafted Svozil or Ishimnikov and preferred Salminen or Cheslock. And if all the teams decided to not draft Karpovich and he will going to be good hockey player, its not his HUGE stock rising and special performance, its gm's standard decision to draft defensemen from MHL in later rounds. Its ok, I understand why, I understand they are available. But its not about their evaluation. Gms loves to draft mediocre NA players in second and third round because they have control under their development. Its a subjective, but reason. But definitely not about evaluating.

I think you're misconstruing what I'm saying. I never said draft position means everything, I said it means something, especially when we're talking about a draft that just happened. And while I have my own opinions on prospects that differ from others, It would still be pretty conceited of me to not take into account the results of 32 scouting departments and how they ultimately determined the value of these prospects. And as much as we want to bring up all the late round steals throughout NHL history, the likelihood of getting an NHL regular decreases the further you get from the 1st round.

 

[Triumph]

I agree with this sentiment in general but I do think it’s pretty clear that the MHL is either underscouted or there is a strong anti Russian bias currently(maybe one and the same) leading to those guys being drafted lower

May not be as exaggerated as some make out but I do think it’s a real thing.

That affects how the players are valued depending on your heuristic. Karpovich is 'better' than the average 6th round pick, but he carries a lower trade value than his value as a prospect because of where he's from and his availability. That said, some of this is overblown - I was certain this time last year that Misyul would never play a game in a Utica/Devils uniform and now he's here.

 

[Guadana]

I think you're misconstruing what I'm saying. I never said draft position means everything, I said it means something, especially when we're talking about a draft that just happened. And while I have my own opinions on prospects that differ from others, It would still be pretty conceited of me to not take into account the results of 32 scouting departments and how they ultimately determined the value of these prospects. And as much as we want to bring up all the late round steals throughout NHL history, the likelihood of getting an NHL regular decreases the further you get from the 1st round.

Nope. Bardakov was better prospect as a late round pick than Stillman. And now he still is. Karpovich too. Because of his ceiling. And no bad track record.
And I didn't say that 6th rounder could be more important than first rounder right after the draft. It was yours exaggeration you got from somewhere. There were discussion about Vilen and Karpovich - 4th and 6th rounders. Even when I clearly said from the beginning that Vilen is higher ranked now, I talked about your specific argument about meaning of being picked in six round. And it was and is wrong still. Your trying to substitution of concepts, exaggeration and changing the subject don't change the fact of evaluating of prospects - its about iq, skill, skating, size, physics, producing(for role), competition. And if Fitz would decided to draft Cheslock in second round, it wouldn't made him better prospect than Karpovich. 32 teams sentiment its just false, because every team making mistakes in every round and overall all teams making mistakes in rounds every year - better players are drafting later than they were, are, will be drafted. Again - position on the draft is only about scouting of specific team and league overall. Teams afraid of losing picks for mhl/vhl/khl players, but most of talented players are going to na. Some ncaa talented players don't sign with their teams, but teams prefer to draft them higher. Euro players from shl and liiga going later than NA players with the same level of ceiling or even with less potential. And some teams like Carolina drafting Russian players earlier than they could make it. Its about teams, not about players. And like Triumph said, their trade potential is changing. But trade potential is a thing for teams who making the trade its not about potential, skill etc of prospects. Its a thing between gms.

And argument "it is because it is" isn't working too.

 

[devilsblood]

Bardakov was better prospect as a late round pick than Stillman. And now he still is.

Was he? Is he?

Bardakov wasn't even that productive in the MHL.

I mean, he's older, though I'm not sure that makes him a better prospect.

 

[forceten]

Was he? Is he?

Bardakov wasn't even that productive in the MHL.

I mean, he's older, though I'm not sure that makes him a better prospect.

I'm not sure what you mean. While he played in the MHL in his DY, he also played in the KHL and put up solid numbers for a 20 year old. He's been in the KHL since as well. And it's more than just point production, right? Role players are important.

 

[Guadana]

Was he? Is he?

Bardakov wasn't even that productive in the MHL.

I mean, he's older, though I'm not sure that makes him a better prospect.

Yeah. Of course he isn`t. You are right. Very solid analysis. Even better than comparison of Gritsyuk and Holtz in the moment =-D

 

[devilsblood]

I'm not sure what you mean. While he played in the MHL in his DY, he also played in the KHL and put up solid numbers for a 20 year old. He's been in the KHL since as well. And it's more than just point production, right? Role players are important.

Drafted the same year. Bardakov is 22. Stillman 20.

Edit: Educated guessing here but Bardakov's DY KHL numbers were likely more a shooting % heater then indication of goal scoring potential. 8-3-11 in 44 games. Followed by 1-2-3 in 19 the following year(0-2-2 in 16 playoff games). 6-12-18 in 42 this year(1-2-3 in 9 playoff games). So the assists picked up a little, but still below that DY goal rate.

 

[devilsblood]

Yeah. Of course he isn`t. You are right. Very solid analysis. Even better than comparison of Gritsyuk and Holtz in the moment =-D

I'm just glad your retort wasn't a 50 line diatribe that doesn't say anything. Saves me time glossing over looking for something that resembles substance.

Wink.

 

[Guadana]

I'm just glad your retort wasn't a 50 line diatribe that doesn't say anything. Saves me time glossing over looking for something that resembles substance.

Wink.

An unsupported evaluative opinion is not an argument. Whoever needs will read. Wink.

 

[devilsblood]

An unsupported evaluative opinion is not an argument. Whoever needs will read. Wink.

Stealing my lines?

Imitation is the sincerest form of flattery. Thank you, that was very kind.

 

[Guadana]

Stealing my lines?

Imitation is the sincerest form of flattery. Thank you, that was very kind.

We winked with britdevil yesterday. That was special.
So again, I agree.

 

[devilsblood]

I suppose I am the sole Clarke guy on the board. I'd have him rated higher and above the other guys with more votes.

I think it's the lone year of stand out performance that is the issue. The shoulder in his D+1, and then Covid took out 2 years where one would expect big #'s.

Promising, but not overly impressive, 1st year in the AHL in 31 games, and then kind of a meh year his 2nd season there.

I'm with you on thinking he could pass Holtz on the NHL depth chart this year, but he still has some proving to do.