Prospect Info: 2023 HFDevils Prospect Rankings #6

Who is the Devils' #6 Prospect?

  • Tyler Brennan

    Votes: 0 0.0%
  • Graeme Clarke

    Votes: 0 0.0%
  • Nico Daws

    Votes: 0 0.0%
  • Josh Filmon

    Votes: 0 0.0%
  • Topias Vilen

    Votes: 0 0.0%

  • Total voters
    107
  • Poll closed .

JimEIV

Registered User
Feb 19, 2003
66,141
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I don't think trading Holtz is/or should be on the table right now...

I mean that 9th forward spot is clearly open and honestly, there doesn't seem like a whole lot of competition for it...

Foote, maybe? Who else has a legitimate shot at that 9th forward spot? If he loses that spot, mind as well just move on from him.
 
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BurntToast

Registered User
May 27, 2007
3,382
2,662
Saratoga, New York
I don't think trading Holtz is/or should be on the table right now...

I mean that 9th forward spot is clearly open and honestly, there doesn't seem like a whole lot of competition for it...

Foote, maybe? Who else has a legitimate shot at that 9th forward spot? If he loses that spot, mind as well just move on from him.

I am not saying I want Holtz traded, but I felt like the organization did a disservice to themselves and Holtz by keeping him in the press box last year. Another, year like that and his value as a player and a trade asset might crater.

Sometimes opportunity plays a factor into a prospects development/success. Holtz has had some success, but they may not want him at RW3.
 
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Guttersniped

I like goalies who stop the puck
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Holtz has two more years on his ELC and is waiver exempt until 2025-26, or 132 more NHL GP.

Foote isn’t waiver exempt. I don’t think a winger with 19 GP is in extreme peril but Fitz has been talking him up and he’s produced a bit.
 

devilsblood

Registered User
Mar 10, 2010
29,544
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Holtz has two more years on his ELC and is waiver exempt until 2025-26, or 132 more NHL GP.

Foote isn’t waiver exempt. I don’t think a winger with 19 GP is in extreme peril but Fitz has been talking him up and he’s produced a bit.
Yet by bringing in Nosek they made it much tougher for Foote to crack the lineup.

Maybe they think bigger picture and don’t see a kid sitting for a stretch as that big of an issue. And they prefer having that depth. Holtz last year as an example perhaps.

I thought the McLeod jail factor may have played into it but the longer we go with out the ax dropping it seems the more he is in the clear. Maybe.

I was interested in seeing Foote Mcleod Bastian though.
 

devilsblood

Registered User
Mar 10, 2010
29,544
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It wasn’t. He has a bad start, like all of his team. They changed system, twice. And than it’s a top ten best season for his age in second best league. If you don’t watch his game, if you dont know the context of the season and you are trying to judge only by overall rates, even if his overall stats are good and his overall game was developed, how are you trying to compare prospects, their game, how they looked, their potential, the curve of their development, how are you trying to judge about steps back or forward? By saying that Holtz season with bad performance in NHL and meh game in AHL(may be mostly because illness) is better than what Gritsyuk showed? By rates only? Guadana scolded you.

I think the level of redflagness of Holtz performance is little overrated. Jump isn’t going easy, but it’s not like 2020 drafted players are already playing for their teams. I think Devils should not rush him, and if he needs to, they can give him one or even two years of development.

Where he was drafted isn’t effect on his game and on level of prospect, it’s only about Devils expectations in the draft day. People crazy overrated draft positions. This is a logical mistake of thinking. The selection in the draft in fact does not affect on anything at all. This is just an assessment of specific players at a time when they are 18. We can say that sometimes someone is better at 18, because he matured earlier, but Holtz improved his game and results over time.
Its just an argument for rankings prospects now - Gritsyuk developted his game and showing results in better league, cant show problems with NHL(may be yet). Both aren’t playing in nhl, so lack of bad transition from league to league is an argument.
Every player from 2020 like Greig or Peterka or even Evangelista who showed legit game and/or production in NHL, should be higher in rankings than Holtz, because of smoothness of transition. When people are trying to put Byfield over Mercer or Jarvis in redrafts, they are fooling yourself. It’s okay to play potential game with young players, but when some of them are showing legit nhl game level and result, and other still don’t, this players are in different categories. At least in the moment.

I don’t think that Devils fans should really worry about Holtz for now. He is 21 yo. Mercers development spoiled the picture of Holtz development, of course previous season was bad, but again the context - most part of this is on the management shoulders. If he will not start the season in the nhl because he isn’t 100% ready and Fitz will trade him for meh compensation right after that, I will not be happy about it, it would be stupid decision.
There is always context. But less goals in a bunch more games is not an upward trajectory. Holding pattern at best. Which is fine. If he has a huge year this season then we can definitely sweep the lesser production last year under a rug. If he doesn’t then maybe we don’t.

You now picking up the Holtz baton though leaves me unsure on how to approach the debate.
 

Guadana

Registered User
Mar 7, 2012
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St Petersburg
There is always context. But less goals in a bunch more games is not an upward trajectory. Holding pattern at best. Which is fine. If he has a huge year this season then we can definitely sweep the lesser production last year under a rug. If he doesn’t then maybe we don’t.

You now picking up the Holtz baton though leaves me unsure on how to approach the debate.
It`s an upward trajectory. He has bad first half of the season, like all of his team. In the second half he was great. Context, development of the game on the ice. Eye test. Please stop with manipulating facts into a narrative. We are talking about development of the game.

About your second intention I don`t know what to say. I never said that Holtz is a bad prospect now, that he has no nhl potential etc. I said that trajectory of Gritsyuk is better, his previous season was better than Holtz has AND ITS STATISTICAL FACT and he made it in better league, even if he scored less goals than season before, his overall stat is top-10 for his age. If you calling it bad season than please, go spend 40 bucks and watch his gaes, where he and his team were bad in first half and were very good in second half. Holtz didn`t have good second half, he has bad season. Like I said - illness was a part of it. Gritsyuk has better skating and his offesnive tools are good too. If he is a better prospect than Holtz for now, for 9 august of 2023, it doesn`t mean that Holtz is a bad prospect. And it doesn`t mean that Holtz can`t be higher in the rankings after.
 

Hockey Sports Fan

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Jun 30, 2010
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I forget where i read it but it was pretty clear the organization sat down with Foote and, in so many words, said “you need to play more like a 4th liner.” I don’t think he has a ceiling higher than that or we’d have seen it in the AHL by now, like we have with Holtz. Even Thompson had some stellar play in the AHL until last year.

A lot of questions are gonna be answered by December of this year, but i think there’s close to 0% chance that Thompson and Foote overtake anyone on the team or ranked in this poll so far.
 

devilsblood

Registered User
Mar 10, 2010
29,544
11,813
I forget where i read it but it was pretty clear the organization sat down with Foote and, in so many words, said “you need to play more like a 4th liner.” I don’t think he has a ceiling higher than that or we’d have seen it in the AHL by now, like we have with Holtz. Even Thompson had some stellar play in the AHL until last year.

A lot of questions are gonna be answered by December of this year, but i think there’s close to 0% chance that Thompson and Foote overtake anyone on the team or ranked in this poll so far.
Ya, before the 21-22 season. I think his most common center was Gauthier. The team wanted to groom him more as a physical defensive responsible fwd, but one who can also contribute offensively because he can shoot the puck.

In last season prospect camp he talked about needing to get stronger, which I thought was a little late in the game to realize that, but better late then never.
 
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devilsblood

Registered User
Mar 10, 2010
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It`s an upward trajectory. He has bad first half of the season, like all of his team. In the second half he was great. Context, development of the game on the ice. Eye test. Please stop with manipulating facts into a narrative. We are talking about development of the game.

About your second intention I don`t know what to say. I never said that Holtz is a bad prospect now, that he has no nhl potential etc. I said that trajectory of Gritsyuk is better, his previous season was better than Holtz has AND ITS STATISTICAL FACT and he made it in better league, even if he scored less goals than season before, his overall stat is top-10 for his age. If you calling it bad season than please, go spend 40 bucks and watch his gaes, where he and his team were bad in first half and were very good in second half. Holtz didn`t have good second half, he has bad season. Like I said - illness was a part of it. Gritsyuk has better skating and his offesnive tools are good too. If he is a better prospect than Holtz for now, for 9 august of 2023, it doesn`t mean that Holtz is a bad prospect. And it doesn`t mean that Holtz can`t be higher in the rankings after.
Noting a guys s goals dropped yoy, despite playing 27 more games, is manipulating facts?

Pretty sure Holtz 20 year old AHL was top 3 for his age(may have been #1?). A tick under a ppg at .98. Also posted a .5 gpg. Grits was .4 gpg and .72 ppg. Grits was also older. You can say Grits played in a better league, but not sure there is a statistical fact there that he had the better season.

Now maybe Grits having a lesser, but still solid season, this past year is a boost to his stock as it further establishes himself as player in that league, where as Holtz was working off a higher initial bar, so his prospect value had more to lose. I can buy that.
 

Triumph

Registered User
Oct 2, 2007
13,527
13,907
I think on balance the AHL is better than the KHL but the very best KHL teams may be better than the best AHL teams whereas the worst KHL team is far worse than the worst AHL team. It makes using numbers trickier. That and the fact that the KHL is not a development league whereas the AHL is.
 
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devilsblood

Registered User
Mar 10, 2010
29,544
11,813
I think on balance the AHL is better than the KHL but the very best KHL teams may be better than the best AHL teams whereas the worst KHL team is far worse than the worst AHL team. It makes using numbers trickier. That and the fact that the KHL is not a development league whereas the AHL is.
Boucher's career may be useful is comparing the leagues.

Was .64 gpg and 1.26 ppg his last season in the AHL.

This past season, .48 gpg, and .86 ppg this past season with omsk. (was well below these numbers last year with a bad Yaroslav team, which he led in both goals and points, but similar numbers the year before with Omsk).

Not that Holtz, as a young guy would get the same oppurtunity as the veteran Boucher has, but that conversion rate(I'm getting .75% of goals and .68% of points), suggests Holtz has performed well relative to Grits. Something along the lines of 39 goals and 71 points in 105 games. Versus 31 & 68 actual for Grits in 105
 

Guadana

Registered User
Mar 7, 2012
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St Petersburg
I think on balance the AHL is better than the KHL but the very best KHL teams may be better than the best AHL teams whereas the worst KHL team is far worse than the worst AHL team. It makes using numbers trickier. That and the fact that the KHL is not a development league whereas the AHL is.
Its not and it is not even close. Im lazy now to make dive into it. You don`t understand what are you talking about.

Boucher's career may be useful is comparing the leagues.

Was .64 gpg and 1.26 ppg his last season in the AHL.

This past season, .48 gpg, and .86 ppg this past season with omsk. (was well below these numbers last year with a bad Yaroslav team, which he led in both goals and points, but similar numbers the year before with Omsk).

Not that Holtz, as a young guy would get the same oppurtunity as the veteran Boucher has, but that conversion rate(I'm getting .75% of goals and .68% of points), suggests Holtz has performed well relative to Grits. Something along the lines of 39 goals and 71 points in 105 games. Versus 31 & 68 actual for Grits in 105
Man, just stop.
 
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