Prospect Info: 2023 HFDevils Prospect Rankings #16

[Nubmer6]

Results:

Rank	Player	Draft Position	Vote %	2022 Result	2021 Result
1	Luke Hughes	2021 Round 1 #4 Overall	89.1	Luke Hughes	Luke Hughes
2	Simon Nemec	2022 Round 1 #2 Overall	92.5	Simon Nemec	Dawson Mercer
3	Alexander Holtz	2020 Round 1 #7 Overall	39.1	Alexander Holtz	Alexander Holtz
4	Akira Schmid	2018 Round 5 #136 Overall	43.8	Arseni Gritsyuk	Nolan Foote
5	Seamus Casey	2022 Round 2 #46 Overall	57.6	Shakir Mukhamadullin	Shakir Mukhamadullin
6	Arseni Gritsyuk	2019 Round 5 #129 Overall	86.9	Fabian Zetterlund	Kevin Bahl
7	Lenni Hameenaho	2023 Round 2 #58 Overall	55.3	Nikita Okhotiuk	Graeme Clarke
8	Topias Vilen	2021 Round 5 #129 Overall	48.9	Seamus Casey	Chase Stillman
9	Nolan Foote	2019 Round 1 #27 Overall	46.3	Nico Daws	Nikita Okhotiuk
10	Josh Filmon	2022 Round 6 #166 Overall	43.0	Tyce Thompson	Samu Salminen
11	Graeme Clarke	2018 Round 3 #80 Overall	37.3	Nolan Foote	Michael Vukojevic
12	Zakhar Bardakov	2021 Round 7 #203 Overall	52.1	Tyler Brennan	Jaromir Pytlik
13	Nico Daws	2021 Round 7 #203 Overall	35.8	Chase Stillman	Tyce Thompson
14	Chase Stillman	2021 Round 1 #29 Overall	37.7	Reilly Walsh	Reilly Walsh
15	Daniil Karpovich	2023 Round 6 #186 Overall	42.9	Akira Schmid	Fabian Zetterlund

Last Pick: Daniil Karpovich - Neman Grodno / Belarus

Added: Santeri Hatakka

Eligible Players:

Shane Bowers Cole Brady Cole Brown Chase Cheslock Brian Halonen Viktor Hurtig Charlie Leddy

Nikita Popugayev Jaromir Pytlik Samu Salminen Tyce Thompson Michael Vukojevic Yegor Zaitsev

Selected: Zakhar Bardakov Seamus Casey Graeme Clarke Nico Daws Josh Filmon Nolan Foote Arseni Gritsyuk Lenni Hameenaho Alexander Holtz Luke Hughes Daniil Karpovich Simon Nemec Akira Schmid Chase Stillman Topias Vilen

In Poll: Artem Barabosha Tyler Brennan Ethan Edwards Santeri Hatakka Peter Hauser Jakub Malek Daniil Misyul Daniil Orlov Artem Shlaine Cam Squires

As usual, after selecting a player, request a player to be added to the next poll.

Click to read more...

 

[Guadana]

Orlov, add Leddy.

 

[Cheddabombs]

Just checking in to provide my monthly comment about Ripshot43 not being voted in yet. A darn shame, this board has lost it

 

[devilsblood]

Voted Orlov in the last poll, thought about switching to Squires, but I stuck with Orlov.

Add Cheslock.

 

[forceten]

Orlov again. Add Leddy (again).

 

[Saugus]

Orlov, add Cheslock.

 

[DevilDog]

Orlov again. Add Samu

 

[Blackjack]

Orlov, add Leddy

 

[Beastdog75]

Voted for Orlov, add Thompson

 

[Guttersniped]

Voted for the Awful Dr Orlov*, add Cheslock.

Spoiler: *When I see that name I think of this

Not saying it makes sense.

 

[Its Always Sundstrom]

Or-lov add Ches platter.

 

[AfroThunder396]

I am more confident that Edwards will play pro games in North America than I am that Orlov will play pro games in North America.

 

[Poppy Whoa Sonnet]

Going Malek. The numbers don't blow me away but the package intrigues me based on the little I've seen and puckhandling ability.

 

[DevilsHughes86]

Orlov, add Leddy

 

[Hockey Sports Fan]

I was just looking at the list of eligible players and realizing i have truly no idea who Cole Brady is.

Anyways, add Leddy

 

[Guadana]

I am more confident that Edwards will play pro games in North America than I am that Orlov will play pro games in North America.

Confidence is a huge part if you have something to build on.
For today I recommend you and some other Devils fans to visit eliterospects and compare Orlov’s career with Nikishin’s career. If you will notice which systems developed them, would be good to know to think about potential development.
If you think that Nikishin had some better skill set in the moment, I will listen your arguments and where you get them from.

 

[Clam Jensen]

I was just looking at the list of eligible players and realizing i have truly no idea who Cole Brady is.

Anyways, add Leddy

All I know about him is that he played at ASU.

 

[AfroThunder396]

Confidence is a huge part if you have something to build on.
For today I recommend you and some other Devils fans to visit eliterospects and compare Orlov’s career with Nikishin’s career. If you will notice which systems developed them, would be good to know to think about potential development.
If you think that Nikishin had some better skill set in the moment, I will listen your arguments and where you get them from.

I'm not arguing Edwards is the better player and I'm not arguing that Edwards is ahead in his development. Orlov may very well be that better player, but if he never comes to North America then it means nothing for New Jersey.

Orlov could become the best defenseman in KHL history, but if he never plays a game in North America then what value is he providing to the New Jersey Devils? The whole point of drafting players is that you expect them to possibly elevate your franchise in some way or another.

The AHL is a worse league than the KHL, but those players can be called up readily and contribute to roster depth. They learn your system and are closer to your lineup than a player overseas. They are also more attractive as trade candidates because they have NHL contracts and could step in to their new team right away. Those things don't apply to players in Russia/Sweden/Finland.

I would feel the same way about Gritsyuk if you didn't have words straight from his mouth about wanting to come to play in NJ. I felt the same way about Miles Wood, I never thought highly of him as a prospect despite his tools and college production, then as soon as he signed an NHL deal he shot up my rankings. The same thing will happen to Orlov, Barabosha, Case McCarthy, etc. I'm not sure the Devils will sign any of those guys to NHL contracts, but if they do my opinion of them will increase dramatically.

"Path to the NHL" is a major criteria for me and I don't see a great one for Orlov at the moment. Availability is an ability, and most late-round European players never come over to North America. Doesn't mean they're bad players, but I'd prefer prospects play pro hockey in North America so they're closer to the Devils orbit. If you disagree with my criteria or my assessment that's totally fine, just my opinion

 

[Guadana]

I'm not arguing Edwards is the better player and I'm not arguing that Edwards is ahead in his development. Orlov may very well be that better player, but if he never comes to North America then it means nothing for New Jersey.

Orlov could become the best defenseman in KHL history, but if he never plays a game in North America then what value is he providing to the New Jersey Devils? The whole point of drafting players is that you expect them to possibly elevate your franchise in some way or another.

The AHL is a worse league than the KHL, but those players can be called up readily and contribute to roster depth. They learn your system and are closer to your lineup than a player overseas. They are also more attractive as trade candidates because they have NHL contracts and could step in to their new team right away. Those things don't apply to players in Russia/Sweden/Finland.

I would feel the same way about Gritsyuk if you didn't have words straight from his mouth about wanting to come to play in NJ. I felt the same way about Miles Wood, I never thought highly of him as a prospect despite his tools and college production, then as soon as he signed an NHL deal he shot up my rankings. The same thing will happen to Orlov, Barabosha, Case McCarthy, etc. I'm not sure the Devils will sign any of those guys to NHL contracts, but if they do my opinion of them will increase dramatically.

"Path to the NHL" is a major criteria for me and I don't see a great one for Orlov at the moment. Availability is an ability, and most late-round European players never come over to North America. Doesn't mean they're bad players, but I'd prefer prospects play pro hockey in North America so they're closer to the Devils orbit. If you disagree with my criteria or my assessment that's totally fine, just my opinion

Great. Edwards signed deal with Devils? There are no students who didn’t signed before with their draft teams?
What Misyul did this summer? What McCarthy did?

Edwards is far closer to NOT being devils prospect than Orlov. For now your argument working much more against HIM, not against Orlov.

your conclusions are especially good after the wrong build of logic.I’m not “agree” or “disagree”, there are no discussion subject. You can have your own preferences, but it doesn’t make them right, especially for contending team. You can try to turn on critical thinking and try to ask on the question “why”. Good luck.

 

[My3Sons]

Great. Edwards signed deal with Devils? There are no students who didn’t signed before with their draft teams?
What Misyul did this summer? What McCarthy did?

Edwards is far closer to NOT being devils prospect than Orlov. For now your argument working much more against HIM, not against Orlov.

I understand his point but it’s one of perception based on a claimed statistical history. In theory a US based college player is a pretty sure bet to sign with thr team that drafts them while a reasonably successful but not high end KHL player is much less likely to sign an ELC with an NHL team. At least that’s the conventional wisdom. But you make a valid counterpoint as well. NJ has a pretty crowded left defense prospect pool right now. Maybe after this season it thins out a bit and they sign Edwards but it’s not beyond thr realm is possibility they let Edwards go if he does not improve on last season. He was ok but not great. We know Karpovich wants to play in North America and he could pass Edwards by the end of the season. Maybe Orlov will show interest it’s just uncertain right now but it’s not a completely unsupported opinion. At this end of the prospect pool you are just looking for some reason to think a player might have thr ability to sniff thr NHL and availability as a criteria is as valid as anything else when splitting these hairs.

 

[Guadana]

I understand his point but it’s one of perception based on a claimed statistical history. In theory a US based college player is a pretty sure bet to sign with thr team that drafts them while a reasonably successful but not high end KHL player is much less likely to sign an ELC with an NHL team. At least that’s the conventional wisdom. But you make a valid counterpoint as well. NJ has a pretty crowded left defense prospect pool right now. Maybe after this season it thins out a bit and they sign Edwards but it’s not beyond thr realm is possibility they let Edwards go if he does not improve on last season. He was ok but not great. We know Karpovich wants to play in North America and he could pass Edwards by the end of the season. Maybe Orlov will show interest it’s just uncertain right now but it’s not a completely unsupported opinion. At this end of the prospect pool you are just looking for some reason to think a player might have thr ability to sniff thr NHL and availability as a criteria is as valid as anything else when splitting these hairs.

Would he sign? I saw NA players from NCAA every year, that dont sign with their teams or even continue to play hockey. Talented players especially trying to choose their destiny. Our own McCarthy didnt sign with us and now he is free agent. On the other side Misyul signed btw.
When we are talking about KHL players especially, team own rights for them forever, it makes easier to save them without roster limit under control and KHL is the best league for them to contnue the development outside NHL.
So for a team like New Jersey Devils having talented players without giving them deal is a perfect opportunity to build depth and taking more nhl ready player in the right time on ELC.
NCAA is a good league, its better for a player to play there for his 18-19-20 years(if we compare with CHL), but if he isnt ready for NHL and doesnt show signs of big improvement, its not a good sign. Players from KHL or SHL can develop their game and stucked team can easily waited or even dont touch them until they really need. And when the time goes on, team can save cap space on the market or trade some older player in decline. But they will got young hockey player with expirience to play structure game with real competent level on elc. There were 53 Russian players in NHL in 2021, there were 62 players in 2022 and 63 players in 2023.

So when we compare Orlov and Edwards, Orlov having better trajectory for now, he faced harder games and will face it even more this season, and he is far from being not interest in sign with Devils. Edwards now is having worser trajectory and is closer to being free agent. And I even didnt talk about their skills and tools. Only about status for organization.

 

[My3Sons]

Would he sign? I saw NA players from NCAA every year, that dont sign with their teams or even continue to play hockey. Talented players especially trying to choose their destiny. Our own McCarthy didnt sign with us and now he is free agent. On the other side Misyul signed btw.
When we are talking about KHL players especially, team own rights for them forever, it makes easier to save them without roster limit under control and KHL is the best league for them to contnue the development outside NHL.
So for a team like New Jersey Devils having talented players without giving them deal is a perfect opportunity to build depth and taking more nhl ready player in the right time on ELC.
NCAA is a good league, its better for a player to play there for his 18-19-20 years(if we compare with CHL), but if he isnt ready for NHL and doesnt show signs of big improvement, its not a good sign. Players from KHL or SHL can develop their game and stucked team can easily waited or even dont touch them until they really need. And when the time goes on, team can save cap space on the market or trade some older player in decline. But they will got young hockey player with expirience to play structure game with real competent level on elc. There were 53 Russian players in NHL in 2021, there were 62 players in 2022 and 63 players in 2023.

So when we compare Orlov and Edwards, Orlov having better trajectory for now, he faced harder games and will face it even more this season, and he is far from being not interest in sign with Devils. Edwards now is having worser trajectory and is closer to being free agent. And I even didnt talk about their skills and tools. Only about status for organization.

That’s why I’m my post I talked about perception and conventional wisdom. I’m not sure the NCAA guys are as likely to sign after their junior year as they are prior to that. NJ’s rights to Edwards end after thr 2025 season. If they don’t sign him this offseason I’m skeptical they sign him after his senior year. I guess it’s a sliding scale where NCAA guys are likely to sign for two years and then it drops off. With KHL guys thr likelihood of signing is probably more closely linked to their actual NHL potential rather than just time - which you noted. It’s an interesting question.

 

[AfroThunder396]

Great. Edwards signed deal with Devils? There are no students who didn’t signed before with their draft teams?
What Misyul did this summer? What McCarthy did?

Edwards is far closer to NOT being devils prospect than Orlov. For now your argument working much more against HIM, not against Orlov.

your conclusions are especially good after the wrong build of logic.I’m not “agree” or “disagree”, there are no discussion subject. You can have your own preferences, but it doesn’t make them right, especially for contending team. You can try to turn on critical thinking and try to ask on the question “why”. Good luck.

There's no reason to be skeptical of a college player going pro until they enter their final season of eligibility. Playing 2 or 3 seasons of college hockey is totally normal. Playing 4 years or longer is unusual, and it often means the player is developing the way the franchise hoped they would. That's the time to be concerned.

Patrick Moynihan and Case McCarthy are both returning to college for a 5th season. As much as I liked them both and was quite high on them, it would be silly to rank them on this list knowing the Devils (or any other team, for that matter) haven't been willing to offer them a deal yet. I don't know if there's a plan by the Devils to give them an extra year to "catch up" after losing development time to COVID. Apparently Moynihan transferred to Notre Dame and is listed on their 2023-24 roster as a "graduate student," I had no idea about that until just now.

But for Edwards, who is trending up and not down like those other two, there is a lot of reason for him to sign a pro deal and report to Utica - he is currently making $0 a year as a student (as far as I know he has no endorsements), but with an entry level deal he'll be making $60,000 as an AHL rookie with potentially much bigger paychecks if he gets called up. The earlier he goes pro, the earlier he gets his ELC, the earlier he can make real money on a potential NHL contract.

Edwards improved his skating and defense this season - even STI, who hated the pick at the time, applauded his development. And now he has an opportunity for a bigger role in Michigan with Hughes moving on. If he doesn't sign this coming spring, I will become concerned and drop him down my rankings.

The Devils should be eager to add bodies on defense to Utica over the next year. Especially considering how bare the farm system will be after trades/graduations. Wotherspoon, Russo, Groleau, Vukojevich, Hatakka, and C. Foote all have one year left on their deals, and most of those guys are not NHL caliber.

Again, college players have a huge financial incentive to go pro as soon as possible. If they don't get a contract, it's probably because the organization is hesitant to give them one based on their development. The dynamics of signing a European player are totally different - the team is usually very eager for them to come over, but the player is the one that is usually hesitant.

Is Orlov willing to move to the other side of the world, with a foreign culture and foreign language, to take a pay cut and play in a worse league? I don't know, I haven't spoken to him. If you have personally spoken to him like you have with Gritsyuk and could tell us of that conversation, that would help alleviate my worries. But without that information, all I can do is look at the evidence in front of me. European players already playing pro hockey, historically, usually don't like playing in the AHL. The guys who do come over are typically older professionals with a polished game, or very talented high draft picks. Orlov is neither at the moment.

 

[Guttersniped]

Great. Edwards signed deal with Devils? There are no students who didn’t signed before with their draft teams?
What Misyul did this summer? What McCarthy did?

Edwards is far closer to NOT being devils prospect than Orlov. For now your argument working much more against HIM, not against Orlov.

your conclusions are especially good after the wrong build of logic.I’m not “agree” or “disagree”, there are no discussion subject. You can have your own preferences, but it doesn’t make them right, especially for contending team. You can try to turn on critical thinking and try to ask on the question “why”. Good luck.

Yeah, I actually see a sneaky benefit to how Russian players rights work, you can let later picks/project prospects cook for longer and then sign them at your leisure.

You get all the time in the world even if they’re drafted as overagers like Bardakov. Teams have the signing rights to overagers in other Euro-leagues for only a short window, we would get 2 years for a 20 year old like Bardakov anywhere else.

The NCAA is the other thing that extends the signing window, but the longer players stay in college the greater the chances they f*** off and sign with someone else. We’ve talked up Moynihan and Case for years and now they aren’t our prospects anymore.

I don’t see Edwards as more of a sure thing as Orlov, if Orlov thrives in the KHL at an early age then we’ll be interested in signing him.

I’m actually not all that confident we end up signing Edwards, we have his rights until August 2025. He’s a junior, it’s not unreasonable for him to stay as a senior, he could get a big role/letter by then.

If we sign Casey and make push to sign Edwards maybe it happens but it doesn’t feel like a sure thing.

 

[Guadana]

There's no reason to be skeptical of a college player going pro until they enter their final season of eligibility. Playing 2 or 3 seasons of college hockey is totally normal. Playing 4 years or longer is unusual, and it often means the player is developing the way the franchise hoped they would. That's the time to be concerned.

Patrick Moynihan and Case McCarthy are both returning to college for a 5th season. As much as I liked them both and was quite high on them, it would be silly to rank them on this list knowing the Devils (or any other team, for that matter) haven't been willing to offer them a deal yet. I don't know if there's a plan by the Devils to give them an extra year to "catch up" after losing development time to COVID. Apparently Moynihan transferred to Notre Dame and is listed on their 2023-24 roster as a "graduate student," I had no idea about that until just now.

But for Edwards, who is trending up and not down like those other two, there is a lot of reason for him to sign a pro deal and report to Utica - he is currently making $0 a year as a student (as far as I know he has no endorsements), but with an entry level deal he'll be making $60,000 as an AHL rookie with potentially much bigger paychecks if he gets called up. The earlier he goes pro, the earlier he gets his ELC, the earlier he can make real money on a potential NHL contract.

Edwards improved his skating and defense this season - even STI, who hated the pick at the time, applauded his development. And now he has an opportunity for a bigger role in Michigan with Hughes moving on. If he doesn't sign this coming spring, I will become concerned and drop him down my rankings.

The Devils should be eager to add bodies on defense to Utica over the next year. Especially considering how bare the farm system will be after trades/graduations. Wotherspoon, Russo, Groleau, Vukojevich, Hatakka, and C. Foote all have one year left on their deals, and most of those guys are not NHL caliber.

Again, college players have a huge financial incentive to go pro as soon as possible. If they don't get a contract, it's probably because the organization is hesitant to give them one based on their development. The dynamics of signing a European player are totally different - the team is usually very eager for them to come over, but the player is the one that is usually hesitant.

How it helps with roster limit, weak competition for development and lesser talent overall? Potential desire to sign because of money? Thats all we have? Even with examples of Moynihan and McCarthy - that what makes Edwards better and EVERY NA prospect better?
Again, logical thinking - Orlov doesnt need to sign to stay under Devils rights, Orlov will not spend money and roster spot for development in harder competition.

And Orlov isnt in position, like any NCAA player, to sign with rivalries, who will thank you for spending the pick

Is Orlov willing to move to the other side of the world, with a foreign culture and foreign language, to take a pay cut and play in a worse league? I don't know, I haven't spoken to him. If you have personally spoken to him like you have with Gritsyuk and could tell us of that conversation, that would help alleviate my worries. But without that information, all I can do is look at the evidence in front of me. European players already playing pro hockey, historically, usually don't like playing in the AHL. The guys who do come over are typically older professionals with a polished game, or very talented high draft picks. Orlov is neither at the moment.

First of all, why he should travel to play in AHL? Even than - Misyul is playing in AHL, McCarthy doesnt, at least for the Devils. This argument doesnt work
About guys, who are older professionals with polished game or very talented, isnt working too. He isnt talented? How you did understand it? Especially with his results in VHL and KHL games? Or you watched his game and made a conclusion? Older professional? So we can cancel every young player no matter how talented he is because he is younger only?

All of your arguments dont work in case of Edwards and Orlov. Because there are other REAL arguments for ANY prospect - talent(skill, iq), compete game for a role, results for a level of competition. If Edwards would have results of Casey in his first or even second year, at least it would be debatable. But he didnt. If he would have better expirience. But he is closer to NOT sign the deal and you CANT say he cant not to not sign, because he can. Because we literally have examples of Moynihan and McCarthy. And we have example of Misyul. And we have example of Zaitsev. So every... ABSOLUTELY EVERY word of your arguments about NCAA players and their desire to sign doesnt work. Players from Russia and players from NCAA can or can not sign with Devils. Both did and did not. At least Zaitsev will not play against Devils.

I don't know, I haven't spoken to him. If you have personally spoken to him like you have with Gritsyuk and could tell us of that conversation, that would help alleviate my worries. But without that information, all I can do is look at the evidence in front of me.

So without any conversation with Edwards will he sign or not... all we can do is look at evidence in front of us.
And all we have now is Orlov and Edwards, where Edwards is closer to be free agent, didnt really pan out for now, playing in weaker league, older, and his positional game isnt on the great level. Is he a good prospect? On my taste - he is. He is a better prospect than Orlov. No, he dont. For now, everything can change.