GDT: 2023 Caps NHL Draft Thread

[Kevin Musto]

This is generational overflow. I need you all to understand.

 

[HTFN]

We’ve had pretty good history with clutch American national team players.

speaking of, their track record with drafting players who Captain a WJC team is also sweet, can't wait for Cam Allen to become a monster

edit: that may not be a WJC team as far as I can tell but whatever.

 

[twabby]

Help me out. You keep saying there were better options available, but you've really keyed in on Benson. If ONE guy in your ranking was higher than the guy they picked, how does your grade drop from A+ to C+?

I'm with you on Benson. I personally would take Leonard first, but it's purely a risk averse opinion for me. I'm not down on small players at all, but what concerns me about Benson's size is how he wields it. Because he's not super elite in any one category, the increased snarl, closer quarters, and speed of the NHL game, the NHL could overwhelm a portion of what makes him special. You see him maneuver in tight spaces now that he simply won't be able to in the NHL without someone putting a shoulder in his chest. NHL top lines don't play against very many pylons.

I think it's likely he grows with the competition and becomes a star regardless, but if the comp is Leonard, I want the pro body and the higher floor. Give me the 55-60 point guy that will play in all situations -- that kind of versatility is extremely rare and valuable -- over the guy that might put up 20 more points but little else. Contrary to what you've said, players like Leo's comps are NOT available in free agency every year, and "stars" aren't measured on boxcars alone.

Still, there'd have to be like 4 guys the Caps should have taken ahead of Leonard to justify a full two-grade drop. Feels like hyperbole to me otherwise. I can only maybe point to Benson, and that still feels iffy to me. Who else did you have higher?

I would have taken Benson, Dvorsky, Perreault, and Dragicevic. Also Cristall but since they got him anyways I won't hold that one against them!

I will try to address the rest of these posts when I get a chance. Sorry for the delay!

 

[Todos a la Calle]

The other thing to consider is that the best people qualified to make a list at all are NHL scouts and execs.

Except for the Arizona Coyotes staff, who knows what's up with them.

 

[ArmadilloThumb]

I will try to address the rest of these posts when I get a chance. Sorry for the delay!

I appreciate your approach, and while I am an old school eye test guy when it comes to hockey, I get the value in analytics and believe there is a place for them.

I do have a question to add, specifically the % chance of becoming a Star metric. Do you have the placards, or can you get the percentage of being a star values this algorithm produces for all the Caps we consider stars just before they were drafted? Can the vales be backward calculated?

I would especially like the see how that metric assessed Wilson, Oshie, Carlson, Orpik, etc.

I my field, verification of model prognostication is really important.

 

[EroCaps]

100% this. Some guys get dinged for skating when the issue is far more awareness-related. So it's not that he can't make the quick cuts, it's that he's not reading the play and didn't see that the quick cut was necessary.

So it's a spectrum between Awareness and Skating Mechanics. Awareness is far more innate and more difficult to correct. Mechanics can be taught and/or overcome. Oshie is a dogshit skater, but it's never appeared to me that better skating would have made him significantly better overall. He reads and feels the game at an elite level, definitely understands goalie tendencies like few others, and simply isn't fast enough for more elegant and efficient skating to matter all that much.

Cristall's skating issues are 100% mechanical. He does have the kind of wheels where it matters, however, so it is something he needs to work on. His offensive awareness isn't something anyone needs to worry about. He sees the game marvelously.

Skating is less of a concern when you’ve got A+ hockey IQ and play making ability.

I’d wager he never developed that part of his game because it was never needed.

 

[Jags]

I would have taken Benson, Dvorsky, Perreault, and Dragicevic. Also Cristall but since they got him anyways I won't hold that one against them!

I guess I'd need to hear your whys on those guys, but I'm scrolling back to your earlier stats/cards posts and it feels to me like you're ranking based on how those sites project stars and what their comps are to other players.

So if a "star" forward is purely someone that puts up at least 57 points a season, someone who's not a star could put up 55, kill penalties, be a Selke candidate, and be an A+ character guy.

There are Selke and Conn Smythe winners who weren't stars by that metric. Current players that don't make the cut -- Oshie, Kadri, Lindholm, Schenn, EKane, Skinner, Carter, Johansen. That's a mixed bunch for sure, but string enough of 'em together and you'll win some stuff.

Versatility is crucial. Boxcars aren't nearly the measure of a player, and plenty point-per-game guys don't really move the needle and never win championships. We've got one of those "Generational Talent" guys everyone geeks out over. He's only won once despite being one of the most offensively gifted AND indestructible players ever.

Preferring Perreault baffles me. I've seen them play together a lot and I want the play driver 10 out of 10 times. Dvorsky and Drago are Leonard comps. It's certainly arguable, but I think Leo easily has the highest floor. He's also the only one you could reasonably say already plays a pro style. Literally everything that stands out about him translates.

Ryan Leonard being a C+ pick at #8 is a bonkers statement, in my opinion. If you compared those 5 guys like it was a foot race, they'd finish very small fractions of a second off from one another.

 

[Hivemind]

The draft review that nobody asked for:

Round 1, Pick 8 - Ryan Leonard
Grade: B
I'm doing my best to rate this pick on its own merits alone, but like it or not, there's always going to be that looming question of "what if?" What if the Capitals had found a way to trade up with Arizona and steal Michkov out from the Flyers noses?
But setting that aside, this pick is fine. Not launching fireworks in the streets, but totally fine. I think I have somewhat lower expectations of the typical performance of a #8 pick than some other posters around here, so I'm not going to be too upset if Leonard ends up as a 20G/40P 2nd line winger with some hustle and grit to his game. I think the odds are better that he ends up more as a complimentary or secondary piece are greater than him being a primary driver or guaranteed first liner. But that's okay, so long as the Capitals can fill those primary roles elsewhere. But one draft pick is never going to complete a line-up alone.
That being said, I would have still liked Benson more.

Round 2, Pick 40 - Andrew Cristall
Grade: A
High upside players with question marks or divisive scouting reports is exactly what the early portion of the 2nd round is for. That's how you get the Alex DeBrincats, Brandon Saads, Sebastian Ahos*, and Ryan O'Reillys of the world. Sure, sometimes you also end up with an Isaac Ratcliffe, Rocco Grimaldi, Thomas Jurco, or an outright bust. But there's not really any such thing as a "safe pick" outside of the top 10-15 in the NHL draft. Love the aggression of the pick here, even if he doesn't pan out.

*Random aside- say what you want about Corey Pronman in general, but looking back at 2015 pre-draft rankings, he was the only one to have Sebastian Aho in his Top 30. Props to him for that

Round 4, Pick 104 - Patrick Thomas
Grade: D
I wanted to give this one an outright F, but the post someone made about COVID seasons throwing off the development curves make me go ever so slightly more lenient. Maybe he's a late bloomer. But this pick reeks of "organizational depth." As a pretty obvious rule of thumb, most prospects are forced to become more conservative players when they have to deal with the increased size and speed of the pro ranks (and particularly the NHL). So when a prospect is already playing a pretty conservative, grindy, middle-of-the-road game that lacks explosiveness (and not just offensive explosiveness, but also phsyical explosiveness), it doesn't bode well for them having a distinguishing skillset that can set them apart at the NHL level. This feels like the upside is a fringe NHLer, with AHL grinder as a more likely outcome.

Round 5, Pick 136 - Cam Allen
Grade: B+
I simultaneously really like this pick and also think this player isn't going to make it in pro hockey. Classic "all the tools but no toolbox" player. If he puts it together, he could be a steal. But I really doubt he puts it together. Hockey IQ is too important, and his is lacking, which greatly alarms me. But I love the concept here of going for a player that could actually crack the NHL, even if the odds are slim, rather than AHL fodder.

Round 7, Pick 200 - Brett Hyland
Grade: C-
Another late blooming over-ager who took a weird development path during the pandemic years. At least Hyland has a little more sizzle to his game, and took a huge step forward offensively this season. That being said, 20 year olds are supposed to be producing offensively in the WHL. It's hard to be too upset about a 7th round pick.

Round 7, Pick 206 - Antoine Keller
Grade: ????
Yeah, no clue. I like picking at least one goalie in every draft (presuming you have close to a full compliment of picks). But I didn't know this guy existed before today. I guess it's at least a clever move to grow the French fanbase.

 

[ClevelandCapsfan]

We still need the franchise player though. The Messiah. Heir to the (Ov's) Empire.

So do at least 25 or so other teams.

 

[SecretaryofDefense5]

Heck of a draft. The Cristall and Allen picks made me much less salty about the Russian. On to free agency now!

 

[g00n]

My draft grade: "A" good draft now shut up and be happy for 5 minutes

 

[kicksavedave]

Bold prediction: Leonard will be our 1C in 3 years and in 5 years he will be a beast/stud and the pick will be considered one of the best in the top15.

I'm basing this purely on what I hope happens.

 

[Cush]

Well, they did take a guy from a country that begins with "F". Seems they still have that habit of reaching for guys in the middle rounds.

 

[Calicaps]

Skating is less of a concern when you’ve got A+ hockey IQ and play making ability.

I’d wager he never developed that part of his game because it was never needed.

But imagine Oshie's motor and ability with Kuzy's skating. SWOOON....

 

[Carlzner]

Bold prediction: Leonard will be our 1C in 3 years and in 5 years he will be a beast/stud and the pick will be considered one of the best in the top15.

I'm basing this purely on what I hope happens.

There were quite a few posts in his prospect thread about how he acts as the “Center” of that line in all aspects except face offs, and that he’s played pure center in the past.

If they can develop him as a center I can see him turning into a ROR/Prime Toews/Kesler kind of player.

But imagine Oshie's motor and ability with Kuzy's skating. SWOOON....

That’s Leonard

 

[Calicaps]

That’s Leonard

I sure hope so.

 

[ArmadilloThumb]

There were quite a few posts in his prospect thread about how he acts as the “Center” of that line in all aspects except face offs, and that he’s played pure center in the past.

And in that discussion there was mention of how he helped elevate Moore's play/production when Moore moved up to that line.

Not sure if the fancy stats can capture that kind non-linear, esoteric subtle effect one player can have on another, or a whole team. Spark plug.

 

[Jags]

Round 7, Pick 206 - Antoine Keller
Grade: ????
Yeah, no clue. I like picking at least one goalie in every draft (presuming you have close to a full compliment of picks). But I didn't know this guy existed before today. I guess it's at least a clever move to grow the French fanbase.

The thing about Keller is that -- for people like us that don't do this for a living -- you really had to want to see him play. You get the international feeds for a tournament, there's always more than 1 game going on, and you typically pick one that doesn't have France in it.

So I've seen him maybe a half dozen times over the years and all that I can say is that he gets shelled a lot and has gotten consistently better. So it's one of those situations where he let 4 in, but it was on 55 shots and he got hung out like a dozen times.

He's a goalie with shitty stats for shitty teams, but he's also the guy you credit when they win one. Very hard to pin down what he'd be literally anywhere else. He'd have been fine for me as a "Why not?" kind of pick, but that they moved to get him might mean they see something.

Bold prediction: Leonard will be our 1C in 3 years and in 5 years he will be a beast/stud and the pick will be considered one of the best in the top15.

I'm basing this purely on what I hope happens.

But if that happens it means all our other C prospects shit the bed. How bout he stays where he is and becomes a 1W alongside a C prospect that's also crushing it?

He has the defensive effort and vision to play center, but I have no idea if he has any faceoff game, and it's a boon to have a wing that plays D and drives play. Move him to C if you have to, but it'd be a luxury to have someone like him on the wing.

 

[twabby]

If you read that like it was a focus I don't really know what to tell you, it didn't seem that way to me. Just seemed like an element that should be mentioned when talking about how he projects.

We're not all the way at odds here, I like the pick a lot, but it would hardly be the first CHL producer who didn't have the full variety of tools needed to make it all the way to the NHL and there's probably something beyond size that kept him out of the first round.

You live in a linear statistical world and it's no surprise that it will always be "don't ask how, ask how many" there but it doesn't devalue scouts making observations about how a player plays and how it will translate. He's not exceptionally fast or wildly agile, but he has good edges. If he can make that keep working for him or get a little quicker (man legs) it won't matter, but if he can't he'll have to adjust and that's not something you can project with rate stats on a graph.

When you open up and commit to an edge like that your center of gravity is way more vulnerable to disruption. At the NHL level with bigger bodies and great lateral skaters, the potential for that is a lot higher and the space closes quickly so skating can absolutely put a limit on a player who performs well right now.

I’m going to try to rapid fire through these posts. Apologies if I miss one.

I’m not saying the scouts are wrong about his skating being suspect but I don’t know that it has any predictive value when taken in combination with a prospect’s equivalency rating. Of course in general you’d prefer a better skater because in general better skaters score more than worse skaters. But if I was given two prospects with the same projection based on equivalency, and one was clearly a better skater than the other, I’d be indifferent about who’s better. Because the worse skater must clearly be better in some other respect(s) than the better skater, otherwise the better skater would outrate the worse skater.

 

[Hivemind]

And in that discussion there was mention of how he helped elevate Moore's play/production when Moore moved up to that line.

Not sure if the fancy stats can capture that kind non-linear, esoteric subtle effect one player can have on another, or a whole team. Spark plug.

NHLe doesn’t, but there are analytics that do. Relative stats, WOWY (with or without you), and Spider stats are all designed to capture the effect of individual players on their line mates (or vice versa).

 

[PlushMinus]

Round 1, Pick 8 - Ryan Leonard
I think I have somewhat lower expectations of the typical performance of a #8 pick than some other posters around here, so I'm not going to be too upset if Leonard ends up as a 20G/40P 2nd line winger with some hustle and grit to his game. I think the odds are better that he ends up more as a complimentary or secondary piece are greater than him being a primary driver or guaranteed first liner.

There are at least 96 players in the league (32x3) that are guaranteed first liners. If the #8 pick in a deep draft isn't able to make it into that group then it should be considered a huge failure on the part of the scouts and the team's ability to develop talent.

And if my #8 pick in a deep draft turned into a 20 goal / 40 point guy I'd be pretty unhappy with the selection.

But only time will tell. It's going to be interesting (I misspelled insufferable) around here in future years, that much IS guaranteed!

 

[twabby]

No? It's not even that it's bad, it's just pretty average and can be offset by great senses. He's got them compared to his peers now, that won't be a guarantee as peers get better and the pool gets wider.

Fact is at his size if you can't keep getting separation by being shifty it won't matter how sweet your hands are, you'll be smothered and forced to get rid of the puck. How shifty he is is going to, well... depend on his skating.

If it were really that simple wouldn't he just get drafted in the top 10, or at least in the first round?

Doesn’t this same argument apply to every aspect of a prospect and not just skating? They’re going up against NHLers who will take advantage of anywhere a player is deficient. Low IQ players are taken advantage of. Bad skaters are taken advantage of. Small players are taken advantage of. Poor shooters are taken advantage of. Low motor guys are taken advantage of.

There’s not a compelling argument that Cristall’s particular deficiencies should make his path to the NHL more difficult than others, given his scoring rate.

Its very very simple actually and its one thing where you really dont need a chart to make case. Its hockey basics.

You just cant get to use your shiny attributes in hockey if you dont keep up with the skates. Im not saying you have to better or even as good as others, but you have to be able to keep up.

And for Cristall, he even isnt that bad of a skater. Its a bit overblown. Im sure he can make the developement if he puts the effort there, and why wouldnt he. Im noting this in general.

See the above for why this applies to this post as well.

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

There are at least 96 players in the league (32x3) that are guaranteed first liners. If the #8 pick in a deep draft isn't able to make it into that group then it should be considered a huge failure on the part of the scouts and the team's ability to develop talent.

And if my #8 pick in a deep draft turned into a 20 goal / 40 point guy I'd be pretty unhappy with the selection.

But only time will tell. It's going to be interesting (I misspelled insufferable) around here in future years, that much IS guaranteed!

Sure…..especially if like Fehr in 2003 (#18), Getzlaf 19, Burns 20, Kesler 23, Richards 24, Perry 28, Bergeron 45, Weber 49….everything turned to gold around him…

 

[Jags]

There are at least 96 players in the league (32x3) that are guaranteed first liners. If the #8 pick in a deep draft isn't able to make it into that group then it should be considered a huge failure on the part of the scouts and the team's ability to develop talent.

Wow, there's a lot to decompile from that paragraph.

Of those 96 players, how many are actually first liners? Most teams spread talent out to make the best top 6 they can, and many have great players at the same position.

So your #8 only has to crack the top 6 and get substantial power play time (and earn both) to make the cut you're picturing in your head. There are serious offensive stars that are second-line players, in other words.

I also think "huge failure" is an overstatement at #8 by your metrics, because it's so boxcar-reliant and there's way more to hockey than that. If you've got a guy that puts up 55 points and gets Selke votes, that's huge. Huge. Those guys tilt the ice just as much as anyone else, and they're the guys you lean on when a team's tilting it against you.

So if Leonard was a one-dimensional offensive player and he didn't become a 60+ point guy, sure. That's a bummer. But he's a complete player. 200 feet, high motor, did all the dirty work for a few other 1sts this year while also putting up the boxcars you want to see from someone playing where he is.

Focus too much on the "compete level" comments if you really want to, but this kid brings it in transition, possession, and on D. He's a play driving wing. How many of those in the NHL? If he can make THAT translate, he'll be everything his draft position suggests he should be, full stop.

 

[twabby]

They said that about Tom Wilson too, that his hint of offensive potential was just playing playoff hockey against little children. Then he developed hands and... I'm not going to check this one but I feel pretty sure he's outproduced his OHL stats in the NHL, or at least matched it when it "should have" been diminished.

Yes there are exceptions to every model. Traditional scouting methods are wrong on players in both directions all the time. I don’t think there’s compelling evidence that the NHLe models miss more often on players like Tom Wilson when compared to traditional scouting.