2023-24 Hart Memorial Trophy finalists: Nikita Kucherov, Nathan MacKinnon, Connor McDavid

[MacMacandBarbie]

These are fair arguments.
The quality of team mates matters.

Toronto relies on Matthews to score the goals for the team, whereas a team like Tampa has 2 players who have scored over 50 goals before in Point and Stamkos.

Edmonton has 3, well 4 I guess.

Colorado has 2.

Toronto has 1.

You're not going to get many assists if nobody on your team can score goals but yourself, it's just not possible.

Outside of Nylander who didn't play with Matthews at even strength, there isn't a scoring threat in Toronto.

This is so disingenuous. The reason why Edmonton has 3 is because they have 2 insane playmakers on their team. If Matthews was a better playmaker in that center slot than Nylander would be a 50 goal scorer.

However, there is a point of context that isn't talked-about enough:

Colorado and Edmonton are gifted the chance to play against San Jose, Anaheim, and Chicago 12 or more games per year, while Tampa and Toronto only face them in 6 games.

This is such a flawed argument as it doesn't take into strength of schedule, how those teams match up, how well certain players are playing at a given time, injuries, is the back up in, etc etc etc

Then again, Colorado had insane amounts of power play time. Again, major advantage for Mackinnon in terms of offense.

The same can be argued for Kucherov, who was among the league leaders in PP time, so advantage to Kucherov there as well.

This is because their style lends itself to baiting the other team into committing penalties. MacKinnon consistently draws more penalties than Auston Matthews, because he is a much more explosive and powerful skater that is harder to contain. This is a knock on Matthews, not a positive IMO

Position plays a factor too. Centres are required to be much more defensively responsible players, so advantage Kucherov there.

Sure, but Matthews doesn't have to worry about playmaking, so advantage Matthews?

The player who gets none of these advantageous circumstances is Matthews.

Well yeah, you nitpicked the most minor things and twisted them to make it seem like an unfair advantage that MacKinnon has stronger, more explosive legs or that McDavid is faster.

He is tasked with being the defensive stalwart on his team, he doesn't get nearly the same amount of pp time, and he plays in the most competitive division which doesn't have any lemons.

I mean no he isn't? Kampf, Jarnkrok, and Marner all kill more penalties than he does. That is just the forwards I know off the top of my head.

One has to look deeper than just the raw numbers when thinking of who was most valuable to their team.

I did an analysis of when goals were scored and score effects for the 4 players.

Matthews scored like 5 goals in garbage-time situations the whole year. Almost all of his goals were to bring his team to within a goal, or game tying, or leading, or to give the team a 2 goal lead.

The other players, despite scoring many less raw goals, had more garbage-time goals - specifically Mackinnon. He had a bunch of goals when the team was up by 3 or 4 goals already, which are completely irrelevant to having won that game.


That's the very definition of valuable, who is it that does things to help the team win.

And scoring or assisting on the 8th goal of a 8-2 game doesn't make a lick of difference to the end result of the game.

You have to cite your source or show your work on this, as 'like 5 goals in garbage time' tells me you didn't look that hard into it, as that is a ton of leg work for one post.

 

[x Tame Impala]

MacK wins the Hart and Kuch wins the Lindsay + Ross

 

[MacMacandBarbie]

Do a little thought exercise here, just give it a shot.

Take a step back, and mull this over for 30 seconds.

The names you have brought up where Matthews finds himself in the midst of:

Sergei Fedorov
Pavel Datsyuk
Peter Forsberg
Joe Sakic
Ron Francis
Sidney Crosby
Doug Gilmour
Jari Kurri

Uhh...why is his name being brought up alongside these players? He finished 37 points back of first place. All of those names had much more impressive seasons than Matthews, just not in the goal scoring department.

 

[MacMacandBarbie]

See this thread

Going back to 1948, there were only four seasons when a forward won the Hart, while placing out of the top five in scoring - Ted Kennedy in 1955 (11th in scoring), Bobby Clarke in 1975 (6th), Taylor Hall in 2018 (6th), and Auston Matthews in 2022 (tied for 6th).

Almost forgot about how insane Hall was that season. Guy had 93 points while the second place guy on his team had 52 and was a rookie

 

[Oscar The Grouch]

I'll grant you that.

What we have never seen before, ever, is a player leading the league in goals and also finishing top 3 in Selke voting.

Your comment has more to do with the TML media machine than anything else.

 

[TheGoldenJet]

Mackinnon had a great season, there's no denying it.

He didn't win the Art Ross.
He didn't win the Rocket.
He isn't nominated for Selke.
He didn't break a 30 year old scoring mark,
He didn't break a 30 year old assist mark.

All of those things happened, and Mackinnon was involved in none of them.

What also happened, is something that has literally never happened before, and the closest instance of it, is from 30 and 40 years ago.


People look at the numbers in a pure vacuum and ignore all context.

Colorado was 3rd in the league in power play time this past season and 2nd in power play opportunities.


Tampa Bay was 23rd in power play time, 16th in power play opportunities.

Edmonton was 31st in power play time, and 19th in power play opportunities.

Toronto was 26th in power play time, and 25th in power play opportunities.


Mackinnon led the league in pp time on ice this year, followed by Rantanen. Makar was 8th.

Kucherov was 4th in the league in pp time on ice.

Matthews was 37th in the league in terms of pp time on ice.

McDavid missed a few games, and ended up 51st in pp time on ice.



In terms of Colorado, their top 3 point producers were on the ice together as often as possible:

Mackinnon with 140 points
Rantanen with 104 points
Makar with 90 points

2/3 of the first line and their #1 defenseman.


In terms of Tampa Bay, they had 5 players above 75 points this year, Kucherov played with the other 4 all year long.


Kucherov with 144 points
Point with 90 points
Stamkos with 81 points
Hedman with 76 points
Hagel with 75 points



In terms of Edmonton, 4 players reached the 75 point mark, with McDavid playing with 2 or 3 of them routinely (depending on the usage of Draisaitl)

McDavid with 132 points
Draisaitl with 106 points
Bouchard with 82 points
Hyman with 77 points



In terms of Toronto, 3 players surpassed the 75 point mark. Matthews played with the 2 of them on the power play, and with one of them for half the season.

Matthews with 107 points
Nylander with 98 points
Marner with 85 points


Matthews played the last 30 games of the season with Domi (47 points) and Bertuzzi (43 points).
Not exactly a point-rich environment in Toronto based on the player usage.
The best offensive defenseman in Toronto - Rielly with 58 points.


Of the 4 players who were in consideration for the Hart Trophy, Matthews had the most unique argument, and by miles the least amount of help from the rest of the team or the officials for that matter.

What a detailed breakdown.

I wonder why it omitted EN points.

 

[Silky Johnson]

Almost like scoring more than the other team wins you hockey games or something.

I'm pretty sure preventing more goals than the other team also leads to wins...

 

[Leaf Fans]

I'm pretty sure preventing more goals than the other team also leads to wins...

That would involve scoring at least one.

Almost as shocking as a another playoff series win.

That would be shocking at all.

 

[CupsOverCash]

MacK wins the Hart and Kuch wins the Lindsay + Ross

Likely how it goes. Kuch already has one and mak doesn't. He gets it by default. Both are deserving tho.

 

[wetcoast]

Almost forgot about how insane Hall was that season. Guy had 93 points while the second place guy on his team had 52 and was a rookie

The Hall Hart just goes to show how fickle the voters are

If NJ loses a single game more than they did Hall goes from being Hart winner to what 7th or 8th place in voting?

Mack is winning the Hart and Kuch is probably second although there is a decent argument for any order between these 3 guys.