WJC: 2022 IIHF WM U20 D1A in Hörsholm, Denmark ( december 12 - 18)

[Canada4Gold]

Yes, this is all correct. Realistically, Norway has no chance but they can console themselves with the fact that their faith is in their hands. Belarus just needs not to blow it and Latvia needs to pray.

Don't they revert to h2h if 1 step gets a 3 way tie to a 2 way tie? That's the way it works in the top tournament. I would assume it's the same. So if Norway wins by 3, they're +1 in h2h GD, Latvia is +1 in h2h GD, Belarus is -2. Belarus gets 3rd. Latvia gets 1st on their h2h win over Norway so Norway needs to win by 4. Or win in regulation by any score and have Latvia not get the full 3 points against Kazakhstan. Norway would then win over Belarus on h2h. Belarus needs any points, and Latvia needs a regulation win, and Norway to beat Belarus in regulation by 3 or less?

 

[A Bundy]

Don't they revert to h2h if 1 step gets a 3 way tie to a 2 way tie? That's the way it works in the top tournament. I would assume it's the same. So if Norway wins by 3, they're +1 in h2h GD, Latvia is +1 in h2h GD, Belarus is -2. Belarus gets 3rd. Latvia gets 1st on their h2h win over Norway so Norway needs to win by 4. Or win in regulation by any score and have Latvia not get the full 3 points against Kazakhstan. Norway would then win over Belarus on h2h. Belarus needs any points, and Latvia needs a regulation win, and Norway to beat Belarus in regulation by 3 or less?

It should be the same rules I think, but I read "direct games" as all games in the new group (Step 1). If there was a different meaning of "direct games" from step 1 to step 2 they should maybe put in head-to-head there?

Step 1: Taking into consideration the games between each of the tied teams, a sub-group is created applying the points awarded in the direct games amongst the tied teams from which the teams are then ranked accordingly.
Step 2: Should three or more teams still remain tied in points then the better goal difference in the direct games amongst the tied teams will be decisive.
Step 3: Should three or more teams still remain tied in points and goal difference then the highest number of goals scored by these teams in their direct games will be decisive

 

[SoundAndFury]

Don't they revert to h2h if 1 step gets a 3 way tie to a 2 way tie? That's the way it works in the top tournament. I would assume it's the same.

Yes, it has to be. I actually have no idea and don't know if there is a precedent to check for sure so just take your word for it. However, I also know Norway isn't winning 3-0.

 

[SoundAndFury]

It should be the same rules I think, but I read "direct games" as all games in the new group (Step 1). If there was a different meaning of "direct games" from step 1 to step 2 they should maybe put in head-to-head there?

Step 1: Taking into consideration the games between each of the tied teams, a sub-group is created applying the points awarded in the direct games amongst the tied teams from which the teams are then ranked accordingly.
Step 2: Should three or more teams still remain tied in points then the better goal difference in the direct games amongst the tied teams will be decisive.
Step 3: Should three or more teams still remain tied in points and goal difference then the highest number of goals scored by these teams in their direct games will be decisive

It says in steps 2 and 3: "should all 3 teams still remain tied". So yeah, as soon only two teams tie (Norway and Latvia in this case) they revert to head-to-head.

 

[Canada4Gold]

It should be the same rules I think, but I read "direct games" as all games in the new group (Step 1). If there was a different meaning of "direct games" from step 1 to step 2 they should maybe put in head-to-head there?

Step 1: Taking into consideration the games between each of the tied teams, a sub-group is created applying the points awarded in the direct games amongst the tied teams from which the teams are then ranked accordingly.
Step 2: Should three or more teams still remain tied in points then the better goal difference in the direct games amongst the tied teams will be decisive.
Step 3: Should three or more teams still remain tied in points and goal difference then the highest number of goals scored by these teams in their direct games will be decisive

The direct games initially would be BLR/NOR, NOR/LAT, and LAT/BLR. If Norway wins in regulation each team would have 3 points from those games. Step 2 is the goal difference in those games. If Norway won by 3 Norway and Latvia would be +1. Belarus would be -2 thus breaking the tie. At this point I'm pretty certain you revert to step 1 with the new tie. I can't be certain because it's not on their website, but that is the rules for the top level WJC.

IIHF - Tournament Info 2022 IIHF WORLD JUNIOR CHAMPIONSHIP

Should three or more teams be tied on points, then a tie breaking formula will be applied as follows, creating a sub-group amongst the tied teams. This process will continue until only two or none of the teams remain tied. In the case of two tied teams remaining, the game between the two would then be the determining tie-breaker as the game could not end as a tie. In the case of none of the teams being tied, the criteria specified in the respective step applies.

So Latvia and Norway are then tied and the h2h game decides. Or if you wish based on the wording from your post. The only direct game between the now 2 tied teams is the LAT/NOR game which Latvia won. Latvia got 3 points from that game, Norway 0 so Latvia is promoted.

 

[A Bundy]

Yes, it sounds like you're right. Move back to Step 1. I missed the part with "three or more teams".
There is an extra quite exciting element here though: If Norway is up let's say by 3-2 when two minutes remains, which is not totally unlikely, the Belarus needs to score a goal to beat Latvia - and they will definately pull their goalie, and probably keep him out even if Norway scores an EN. Same if Norway is up by e.g. 4-2 when four minutes remains, again very likely Belarus will pull their goalie paving the way for only 1 EN by Norway to beat Latvia? So maybe for Norway don't be too desperate, but make sure the go into the last period with a lead is all it takes?

 

[Canada4Gold]

Yes, it sounds like you're right. Move back to Step 1. I missed the part with "three or more teams".
There is an extra quite exciting element here though: If Norway is up let's say by 3-2 when two minutes remains, which is not totally unlikely, the Belarus needs to score a goal to beat Latvia - and they will definately pull their goalie, and probably keep him out even if Norway scores an EN. Same if Norway is up by e.g. 4-2 when four minutes remains, again very likely Belarus will pull their goalie paving the way for only 1 EN by Norway to beat Latvia? So maybe for Norway don't be too desperate, but make sure the go into the last period with a lead is all it takes?

They need to win by 4. Belarus leaving their goalie pulled down 3 could I guess still be a thing because they've got nothing to lose. I'm sure Latvia wouldn't be thrilled though.

I like that that game is before the Latvia game though. Since Norway could still win by 1, 2 or 3 goals and advance if Latvia doesn't beat Kazakhstan in regulation. Otherwise if Norway knew they had to win by 4 they'd be the ones pulling their goalie when they're up by 2 or 3. Has there ever been a game where both teams pulled their goalie at the same time? If Latvia went first and won in regulation. Then Norway would need to win by 4. Belarus would need just 1 point to advance. Norway up 2 with 3 minutes left, both teams need 2 goals to advance, it's in both their best interests using normal hockey logic to pull their goalie.

 

[A Bundy]

Has there ever been a game where both teams pulled their goalie at the same time?

He he! I was thinking about that last night, but the Latvia - Kazakhstan later start maybe stops Norway to pull as you say. Disregarding that possibility: if Norway is up by one or two when 5 minutes remaining, the rational thing for both teams is to pull their goalies and just play until Belalus has the win or Norway is up sufficiently. I believe this is some kind of prisoner's dilemma. Norway's better off with Belarus pulling, Belarus is better off with Norway pulling. Both are worse off with none of them pulling, so they should decide to collude and pull both goalies when e.g. Norway is up by two at least.
On the goal difference Norway needs: They need 4 because a 5-2 win will leave them at 7-6 against Latvia's 5-4 but the scored goals doesn't apply as they move back up to step rather than to step 3 I guess.

 

[Namejs]

Only catch is that Norway keep playing Stensrud who is 83 % rather than Plogås at 92,3 % Kosolov i 93% now, while Stensrud is 83 %, so that translates to 2,5 goals in 25 shots - pretty much the difference needed for Norway here. So if Norway is gonna have any chance at all they really need to find some weaknesses in Kosolov like lateral movements or stuff like that, or they have to fire off 50 shots + make sure their own pick has a 93 % day. Based on the exibition games and this tourney it looks like Plogås is the best pick. Norway is creating a lot of offense, but scoring like 4 or 5 against Belarus is gonna be really hard.

*sigh*

He's no 83SVS% goalie, that's just variance due to a small sample size.

You would be hard pressed to find an 83SVS% goalie even at the 2nd tier junior level, they don't exist.

Don't trigger my inner numbers nerd here. Both of your goalies are OK/below average, Kolosov is good.

 

[ozo]

As much as I want Belarus to win, it would be shame that all your potential tie breaking calculations would go to waste.

 

[A Bundy]

*sigh*

He's no 83SVS% goalie, that's just variance due to a small sample size.

You would be hard pressed to find an 83SVS% goalie even at the 2nd tier junior level, they don't exist.

Don't trigger my inner numbers nerd here. Both of your goalies are OK/below average, Kolosov is good.

Well, I hope you are right. He's very talented but young, to put it in more qualitative terms. The other one is larger, older and seems hoter right now - so I guess that is what a small sample size can be used for.

 

[Dima_BLR]

Yes, it sounds like you're right. Move back to Step 1. I missed the part with "three or more teams".
There is an extra quite exciting element here though: If Norway is up let's say by 3-2 when two minutes remains, which is not totally unlikely, the Belarus needs to score a goal to beat Latvia - and they will definately pull their goalie, and probably keep him out even if Norway scores an EN. Same if Norway is up by e.g. 4-2 when four minutes remains, again very likely Belarus will pull their goalie paving the way for only 1 EN by Norway to beat Latvia? So maybe for Norway don't be too desperate, but make sure the go into the last period with a lead is all it takes?

What if Norway is leading like +1 by the end of the game and has to pull their goalie with a desperate slam-bang effort (to score more)....and Belarus scores an EN to equalize the game so it ends in overtime?

 

[A Bundy]

As much as I want Belarus to win, it would be shame that all your potential tie breaking calculations would go to waste.

Thanks Just too bad that the Latvia-Kasakhstan game is destroying the potenital of an epic 6 on 6 skaters full third period being the prisoners dilemma solution (I am not a scholar though). On the other hand, of Norway is up 2 or 3 goals with five minutes remaining they should and can afford to gamble to get the last one or two, so I brace for 6 vs 6 for the final five minutes anyways. Just that could be one for the ages.

 

[A Bundy]

What if Norway is leading like +1 by the end of the game and has to pull their goalie with a desperate slam-bang effort (to score more)....and Belarus scores an EN to equalize the game so it ends in overtime?

That could be the outcome, but at Norway +1, Belurus will be equally interested in the last goal to surpass Latvia in the internal three-way table and should maybe pull their own goalie. The worst (theoretical) outcome is if both teams wait and wait and wait for the other team to pull their goalie and it ends with Latvia winning the promotion. I hope they just don't wait to long before they commonly realize what situation they are in. I might overthink this a bit though.

 

[SoundAndFury]

What if Norway is leading like +1 by the end of the game and has to pull their goalie with a desperate slam-bang effort (to score more)....and Belarus scores an EN to equalize the game so it ends in overtime?

Not all teams pull the goalie in that situation though... I remember GB U20s being in a similar situation a few years ago and they were like "ok, silver medal works for us".

 

[Pardus]

Best of luck for our Hungarian brothers, you can do it!

Edit. Nothing against Denmark, I even have relatives there and Copenhagen is a beautiful city. But relegation would be a wake up call that something has to change for Denmark to start producing quality prospects again.

 

[A Bundy]

Looks like mye bookie doesn't want to offer any bets on Belarus vs Norway. I blame it on the prisoner's dilemma. Just too complicated for them.

 

[A Bundy]

Not all teams pull the goalie in that situation though... I remember GB U20s being in a similar situation a few years ago and they were like "ok, silver medal works for us".

Bizarre, unique situation led to both Italy and Slovenia pulling their goalies simultaneously - Article - BARDOWN
Not the tourney you are writing about maybe, but it can happen!

 

[Canada4Gold]

Bizarre, unique situation led to both Italy and Slovenia pulling their goalies simultaneously - Article - BARDOWN
Not the tourney you are writing about maybe, but it can happen!

Reminds me of a weird situation in soccer/football I read about a while back. Some international tournament had put in a rule that goals in extra time count for 2. No idea why, but they did. 1 team needed to win by 2 to advance over the other. Late in regular time they were up by 1, they thought the odds or scoring were low so they scored an own goal to tie the game so they could score in extra time to win by 2. The final 5 minutes of regular time played out with the other team trying to score in both nets(to win or lose by 1) while they tried to defend both nets. The other team failed, and the original team scored in extra time which counted for 2 and advanced

edit: found it

Barbados 4–2 Grenada - Wikipedia

 

[A Bundy]

Reminds me of a weird situation in soccer/football I read about a while back. Some international tournament had put in a rule that goals in extra time count for 2. No idea why, but they did. 1 team needed to win by 2 to advance over the other. Late in regular time they were up by 1, they thought the odds or scoring were low so they scored an own goal to tie the game so they could score in extra time to win by 2. The final 5 minutes of regular time played out with the other team trying to score in both nets(to win or lose by 1) while they tried to defend both nets. The other team failed, and the original team scored in extra time which counted for 2 and advanced

edit: found it

Barbados 4–2 Grenada - Wikipedia

Hahaha. Great read.

 

[SoundAndFury]

Like I said yesterday during the Polish game, undying classic I don't think there has been a major penalty in this tournament and yet here we go, high time to pick it up By one of the more important players on the team, no less.

 

[Fjorden]

15-5 shots in favor of Norway after 1st period. Norway needs to break the deadlock soon. Belarus goalie had some fantastic saves. Based on 1st period Belarus have trouble hanging on with the speed in the norwegian team.

Lets see how 2nd period will be, If it will be as one-sided as 1.st period Belarus will break down soon, or might Belarus come out as a new team?

 

[A Bundy]

1-0 Norway, and we are approaching a pull scenario

 

[SoundAndFury]

Oh boy Good thing Belarussian defense has that footspeed

 

[Fjorden]

1-0 Norway, and we are approaching a pull scenario

2-0 Norway. Now Belarus are under real pressure.