Prospect Info: 2022 HFDevils Prospect Rankings #18

[bossram]

Extremely strange why people are taking umbrage with the fact I said, "depth prospects are not likely to make the NHL". This is not a controversial statement. I did not say they had 0% chance. I'm talking about probabilities.

Well, yeah. The mean outcome of a guy who is projected to make the NHL in a depth role at best is probably Riley Nash (or worse! Doesn't make it!). Again, not a controversial statement.

Yes, you keep them in the system for organizational depth and the hope that they outperform their draft status. My point is that if you really need organizational depth, you can also always find it for very cheap.

I am fully aware there are guys who were considered depth prospects that went on to be very useful players. I could also just name off an infinite list of similar players that didn't become anything.

 

[My3Sons]

Extremely strange why people are taking umbrage with the fact I said, "depth prospects are not likely to make the NHL". This is not a controversial statement. I did not say they had 0% chance. I'm talking about probabilities.

Well, yeah. The mean outcome of a guy who is projected to make the NHL in a depth role at best is probably Riley Nash (or worse! Doesn't make it!). Again, not a controversial statement.

Yes, you keep them in the system for organizational depth and the hope that they outperform their draft status. My point is that if you really need organizational depth, you can also always find it for very cheap.

I am fully aware there are guys who were considered depth prospects that went on to be very useful players. I could also just name off an infinite list of similar players that didn't become anything.

I think what you said is controversial because you self identify as being located in Vancouver and the rest of the fan base is concerned you are just a Canucks plant who is going to start slowly trying to condition us to demand that NJ trade Jack and Luke to Vancouver. It's an obvious issue when you think about it.

 

[bossram]

I think what you said is controversial because you self identify as being located in Vancouver and the rest of the fan base is concerned you are just a Canucks plant who is going to start slowly trying to condition us to demand that NJ trade Jack and Luke to Vancouver. It's an obvious issue when you think about it.

Uh, no it's not. Considering I have never said anything of the sort, literally ever. I like the Devils. I think they'll be a very good team soon. I'm one of the biggest Jack Hughes' boosters there are, going back to before last season (I took him with my second pick on one of my fantasy teams, because I was that confident he would explode).

I do not want them to trade Jack or Luke at all. I've had quite a few discussions with people on the Devils board and quite literally never have I even remotely indicated any slim sentiment of "trade Jack and Luke to VAN!!!! I'm over here talking about Patrick Monyihan for cripes sake.

The Canucks are a joke. They've been mismanaged for a decade by Benning, and the new regime seems set to make the same mistakes, just with better PR. I follow them out of geographic proximity and access, not out of genuine interest.

Maybe stop assuming and actually engage with what I'm saying.

 

[My3Sons]

Uh, no it's not. Considering I have never said anything of the sort, literally ever. I like the Devils. I think they'll be a very good team soon. I'm one of the biggest Jack Hughes' boosters there are, going back to before last season (I took him with my second pick on one of my fantasy teams, because I was that confident he would explode).

I do not want them to trade Jack or Luke at all. I've had quite a few discussions with people on the Devils board and quite literally never have I even remotely indicated any slim sentiment of "trade Jack and Luke to VAN!!!! I'm over here talking about Patrick Monyihan for cripes sake.

The Canucks are a joke. They've been mismanaged for a decade by Benning, and the new regime seems set to make the same mistakes, just with better PR. I follow them out of geographic proximity and access, not out of genuine interest.

Maybe stop assuming and actually engage with what I'm saying.

You actually took me seriously? Ugh, sorry, I thought it was obvious I was being silly. My apologies.

 

[Guadana]

I think what you said is controversial because you self identify as being located in Vancouver and the rest of the fan base is concerned you are just a Canucks plant who is going to start slowly trying to condition us to demand that NJ trade Jack and Luke to Vancouver. It's an obvious issue when you think about it.

Yes, inspector!

 

[devilsblood]

Extremely strange why people are taking umbrage with the fact I said, "depth prospects are not likely to make the NHL". This is not a controversial statement. I did not say they had 0% chance. I'm talking about probabilities.

Well, yeah. The mean outcome of a guy who is projected to make the NHL in a depth role at best is probably Riley Nash (or worse! Doesn't make it!). Again, not a controversial statement.

Yes, you keep them in the system for organizational depth and the hope that they outperform their draft status. My point is that if you really need organizational depth, you can also always find it for very cheap.

I am fully aware there are guys who were considered depth prospects that went on to be very useful players. I could also just name off an infinite list of similar players that didn't become anything.

I find it extremely strange that you would would think that is the statement that I am taking umbrage with.

I mean i layed out my counter arguments to your specific quotes with which i took umbrage. Why create a strawman instead of actually responding to my points?

 

[devilsblood]

It's difficult to call any player a "legit prospect" if their max upside is basically the quality of a guy you can find on waivers. Like, I actually think Monyhihan can get in NHL games just based on his work ethic and willingness to play the style he needs to advance. But even if he makes it, at best, he's like a Riley Nash player which any team could sign at league minimum this offseason. Is that really a prospect worth mentioning?

Just to be clear. It is this type of sentiment with which i take umbrage. The max upside of guys on this list is, as i’ve shown with multiple examples, top half of the roster type players. Im not even big in Moynihan as a prospect but his upside is definitely better then a 33 year ild Nash.

Probability might not be great. But to say that is the max upside is just false.

 

[bossram]

I find it extremely strange that you would would think that is the statement that I am taking umbrage with.

I mean i layed out my counter arguments to your specific quotes with which i took umbrage. Why create a strawman instead of actually responding to my points?

Because my underlying point is simply that depth prospects are unlikely to make the NHL, and even less likely to be impact players. Your disagreements over individual player evaluations are just that...disagreements over individual player evaluations.

Just to be clear. It is this type of sentiment with which i take umbrage. The max upside of guys on this list is, as i’ve shown with multiple examples, top half of the roster type players. Im not even big in Moynihan as a prospect but his upside is definitely better then a 33 year ild Nash.

Probability might not be great. But to say that is the max upside is just false.

E.g. here. Maybe it's unfair to say Moynihan's max upside is a 4C type like Nash, but it's not much more than that and he's unlikely to make it at all, unfortunately (I just kinda like him anyway and that's why I was using him as an example).

If a prospect like Monynihan's mean outcome is AHLer, then what's his +2SD outcome (which is what I'm labelling as max upside)? A 4th line center? Sure, it is possible he could end up being a top-six forward in a crazy outlier case, but I'm not really going to consider that in a realistic min/max projection. Otherwise every player's max upside would be a top-half player.

 

[TBF1972]

I think what you said is controversial because you self identify as being located in Vancouver and the rest of the fan base is concerned you are just a Canucks plant who is going to start slowly trying to condition us to demand that NJ trade Jack and Luke to Vancouver. It's an obvious issue when you think about it.

maybe we can trade bossram for quinn hughes. we could even volunteer to drive him to vancouver.

 

[devilsblood]

Because my underlying point is simply that depth prospects are unlikely to make the NHL, and even less likely to be impact players. Your disagreements over individual player evaluations are just that...disagreements over individual player evaluations.

E.g. here. Maybe it's unfair to say Moynihan's max upside is a 4C type like Nash, but it's not much more than that and he's unlikely to make it at all, unfortunately (I just kinda like him anyway and that's why I was using him as an example).

If a prospect like Monynihan's mean outcome is AHLer, then what's his +2SD outcome (which is what I'm labelling as max upside)? A 4th line center? Sure, it is possible he could end up being a top-six forward in a crazy outlier case, but I'm not really going to consider that in a realistic min/max projection. Otherwise every player's max upside would be a top-half player.

Well im not sure where the distinction between “legit” and “depth” lies. Seems to be a arbitrary (well it’s clearly this) and unnecessary(i think it’s clearly this as well) creation with no clear parameters.

But i do know that between the time Castron came aboard in 2016 and 2020(which is really early to include given guys still have time to develop) we produced a legit top 6 fwd, a guy who has played extensively and looks capable in the top 6 and another who currently plays top6 in the khl and many believe has top 6 upside in the NHL, all of whom who were drafted in the 5th round or later. 3 guys out of 18 late round picks playing well above their draft position. That is not insignificant.

Now i know where the stat geeks will go from here,ie “small sample” or “luck” but I’m willing to put weight in the notion that the current scouting staff has a process in place which is conducive to finding players late in the draft. Like ive said I really like the profile of Filmon as a guy who can develop later in the process and yeah his upside imo is higher then that of a shot out NHL player who has 2 NHL goals over the last 3 years. Barabosha’s profile suggests higher upside as well. Is it fair to say their chance of becoming more then a fringy nhl player is the 17% success rate with which the Devils hit on late round picks during the 2016-2020 timeframe? That might be a little high but I don’t think its an insignificant possibility.

 

[My3Sons]

maybe we can trade bossram for quinn hughes. we could even volunteer to drive him to vancouver.

He’s already there.


I guess @bossram is a somewhat new poster on this board and isn’t used to the humor here yet? I know thr profile says a member for a long time but perhaps a recent poster in thr NJ section?

 

[TBF1972]

He’s already there.

reduces our effort.

 

[bossram]

He’s already there.


I guess @bossram is a somewhat new poster on this board and isn’t used to the humor here yet? I know thr profile says a member for a long time but perhaps a recent poster in thr NJ section?

I was a free agent fan looking for a team. I like the Devils and where they're going. Bought a Devils hat.

I lurked here for a while and thought the Devils' board interest and discussion was pretty good. Much better than the Canucks board.

 

[My3Sons]

I was a free agent fan looking for a team. I like the Devils and where they're going. Bought a Devils hat.

I lurked here for a while and thought the Devils' board interest and discussion was pretty good. Much better than the Canucks board.

That's all fair and glad you are participating. With some experience here you will learn who is always serious and who is often less than serious and what axes folks have to grind. Humor is often shared on this board and can sometimes be a bit prickly but typically in good fun and not meant to insult.

 

[Triumph]

Because my underlying point is simply that depth prospects are unlikely to make the NHL, and even less likely to be impact players. Your disagreements over individual player evaluations are just that...disagreements over individual player evaluations.

E.g. here. Maybe it's unfair to say Moynihan's max upside is a 4C type like Nash, but it's not much more than that and he's unlikely to make it at all, unfortunately (I just kinda like him anyway and that's why I was using him as an example).

If a prospect like Monynihan's mean outcome is AHLer, then what's his +2SD outcome (which is what I'm labelling as max upside)? A 4th line center? Sure, it is possible he could end up being a top-six forward in a crazy outlier case, but I'm not really going to consider that in a realistic min/max projection. Otherwise every player's max upside would be a top-half player.

I think this is sort of a distinction without a difference here. The Devils have had three players in recent memory come from way down the depth chart to become NHLers (Fayne, Coleman, Kerfoot), and Zetterlund might end up doing the same thing. So, I grant that you are 'right', but I don't think it's worthwhile to point it out, and that there were way more guys who were once in the skates of the players above who ended up nowhere close to the NHL.