2021 Seattle expansion draft. Who do you protect?

[Yak]

This is going to be like a dam video game trying to figure out what we do.

So many options.....

 

[Sweatred]

I don’t think White is an automatic to protect.

If DJ starts using him a bit in overtime or 4v5 I think he may support keeping him. I’d really like to see if White can replace Tierney in the PK.

If Brown and Pinto show that they can play in the league White is basically a 4C and Bishop types can provide similar play. The idea of freeing up $21 million may be worth more than hoping he improves into a useful player.

Seattle probably passes anyway. We could also explore trading Daccord. Abramov, D’Accord, Brown, White etc.

 

[GCK]

I don’t think White is an automatic to protect.

If DJ starts using him a bit in overtime or 4v5 I think he may support keeping him. I’d really like to see if White can replace Tierney in the PK.

If Brown and Pinto show that they can play in the league White is basically a 4C and Bishop types can provide similar play. The idea of freeing up $21 million may be worth more than hoping he improves into a useful player.

Seattle probably passes anyway. We could also explore trading Daccord. Abramov, D’Accord, Brown, White etc.

Pinto needs to find more pace to play centre in the NHL.

 

[Sweatred]

Pinto needs to find more pace to play centre in the NHL.

Hopefully we find out soon.

 

[bicboi64]

All I know is we need to try to get rid of Murray's contract. Dadanov with only 2 years left is easier to stomach then $6 million for what we've seen this year and even if he's better next year, we have solid goalies in the systems and should run a 1a/1b situation.

I'd also like to see em get rid of Zaitsev. He's a third pairing defender on a competitive team and the $4.5 million can be better spent imo. Do what you can to get rid of Murray of Zaitsev

 

[Big Muddy]

Watson should be protected - he provides way more positive value than many of our the under achieving over paid players.

Yes, he's played well in his role. He's a heart and soul guy that does what's necessary, sacrifices his body to block shots, etc. Yet, I would think its worth remembering that 4th line role players are the easiest to replace.

 

[yogibear]

Not protecting Murray, Dadonov, zaitzev. Maybe White... all bad contracts

 

[aragorn]

They have way more players who shouldn't be protected than players who should right now. Unfortunately, I think the commitment that this org has made to some players based on their contracts might force PD to protect like Murray & Dadonov for example the two most disappointing players this yr. It doesn't mean they can't bounce back next yr, but their play this yr has been terrible. Those contracts could also be a reason they won't be able to trade them or Seattle select them.

 

[Sweatred]

Yes, he's played well in his role. He's a heart and soul guy that does what's necessary, sacrifices his body to block shots, etc. Yet, I would think its worth remembering that 4th line role players are the easiest to replace.

I agree ... we are very thin on decent PKers ... I doubt we could easily replace his physicality and PK ability without costing us a decent asset or more cap space/salary.

 

[Big Muddy]

I agree ... we are very thin on decent PKers ... I doubt we could easily replace his physicality and PK ability without costing us a decent asset or more cap space/salary.

For reference, it cost a 4th to acquire Watson. Potential to get an equivalent through free agency as well one would think.

 

[Sens of Anarchy]

 

[Burrowsaurus]

At this point I would protect two goalies. What’s the least amount of d men we can protect ?

 

[The Devilish Buffoon]

Not necessarily what I'd do, but my prediction...

Protection locks:
F - B. Tkachuk
F - D. Batherson
F - C. White
F - C. Brown
F - N. Paul
D - T. Chabot
D - N. Zaitsev

Two of Dadonov, Tierney, and Watson will need to be left exposed if we keep our current roster.... I think we will try to acquire a F depth piece at the deadline who meets exposure requirements. In any event, I expect Tierney will be exposed and either Dadonov or Watson will be protected (or, if we acquire a depth piece, maybe both). Some potential targets include:
- ANA: N. Deslaurier/S. Milano
- BUF: Z. Girgensons/C. Lazar
- CAR: S. Lorentz (needs 5 more games)
- COL: L. O'Connor (needs 7 more games)
- FLA: R. Lomberg (needs 7 more games)
- NSH: R. Grimaldi
- NYI: L. Komarov/R. Johnston (needs 11 more games)
- NYR: C. Blackwell (needs 3 more games)
- PIT: A. Angello (needs 11 more games)
- SJ: S. Noesen (needs 9 more games)
- TBL: M. Stephens (needs 5 more games)
- VAN: A. Roussell/J. Beagle/J. Virtanen
- WSH: N. Dowd/R. Panik/G. Hathaway

Most should be available for no/negative value. I'd try to bring in someone who we wouldnt mind having on our team next year, at least as an AHLer. I'd stay away from guys like Girgensons, Hathaway, and Panik, who have term, but other than that I think most of these guys are fine for roles ranging from 4th liner to AHLer.

I think L. Brown is as good as gone, unfortunately... if we get back an asset that doesnt require an F protection slot, I would protect Dadonov and Watson. If we only have one spot for those two, it becomes a tough decision.

I would try to do the following:

1) Trade L. Brown for a young D who is worthy of a protection spot... Juolevi, Mahura, J. Larsson, H. Fleury, etc.
2) Trade Wolanin for one of the above fwds.

Follow the protection list above, + Dadonov & Watson at forward and the D acquired in the Brown trade at D. I'd definitely consider Abramov for a protection slot but I dont think the team will unless he really establishes himself.

As for goalies, who knows. I'd lean Daccord but Gus has the benefit of health... if he is given an opportunity and proves himself, that could change the equation.

 

[Tap on the Ankle]

Gotta protect Dadonov and Brown otherwise no chance they take Murray

 

[Sweatred]

For reference, it cost a 4th to acquire Watson. Potential to get an equivalent through free agency as well one would think.

Yes - that’s a fair price but it doesn’t guarantee we can get an equally effective player for another 4th.

Murray, Gud, Stepan etc are all good examples demonstrating the risk of using assets to acquire players. You would think a 4th for a Pacquette type player could replace Watson but in practice many of those may not work out.

We have good value in AW and I’d prefer to expose some of the negative value contacts we are accumulating. At worst we can throw $5+ at someone else to replace Dadonov or White types if they are selected.

 

[FormentonTheFuture]

At this point I would protect two goalies. What’s the least amount of d men we can protect ?

Literally impossible

 

[Burrowsaurus]

Literally impossible

Really. There’s no variation where two goalies are protected? Silly

 

[Big Muddy]

Yes - that’s a fair price but it doesn’t guarantee we can get an equally effective player for another 4th.

Murray, Gud, Stepan etc are all good examples demonstrating the risk of using assets to acquire players. You would think a 4th for a Pacquette type player could replace Watson but in practice many of those may not work out.

We have good value in AW and I’d prefer to expose some of the negative value contacts we are accumulating. At worst we can throw $5+ at someone else to replace Dadonov or White types if they are selected.

IDK. Spending $5 m or over to keep Watson and replace White (and his $4.75 m salary) at forward doesn't seem like a good move to me. If Dorion can't find a player to replace Watson at reasonable cost (either $s or assets, or both), I doubt if he's the GM to lead the Senators to any kind of success assuming that it somehow boils down to this kind of scenario. You mentioned three bad contracts and player assessments that Dorion made to acquire bad veteran players. Not sure that provides much comfort when you expect Dorion to find a better vet player than let's say White.

 

[Sweatred]

IDK. Spending $5 m or over to keep Watson and replace White (and his $4.75 m salary) at forward doesn't seem like a good move to me. If Dorion can't find a player to replace Watson at reasonable cost (either $s or assets, or both), I doubt if he's the GM to lead the Senators to any kind of success assuming that it somehow boils down to this kind of scenario. You mentioned three bad contracts and player assessments that Dorion made to acquire bad veteran players. Not sure that provides much comfort when you expect Dorion to find a better vet player than let's say White.

I wouldn’t replace White or Dadonov if we lost either - I’d play who ever we keep at 3RW and use the savings to improve 1-2C or defence.

We owe White nearly twice as much so I’d take my chances with Dadonov.

 

[Big Muddy]

I wouldn’t replace White or Dadonov if we lost either - I’d play who ever we keep at 3RW and use the savings to improve 1-2C or defence.

We owe White nearly twice as much so I’d take my chances with Dadonov.

No surprise as far as your last sentence is concerned. The idea you suggested has some merit, but would leave the team short at center. Of course, the anticipated response will be Pinto jumps into the lineup, but that's a lot of pressure on a young kid that has yet to play a single minute in the NHL. Pinto has potential and it might work, but I'm not sure instant success is a realistic expectation. Not sure there's much more to add to this subject to keep the discussion going.

 

[Sweatred]

No surprise as far as your last sentence is concerned. The idea you suggested has some merit, but would leave the team short at center. Of course, the anticipated response will be Pinto jumps into the lineup, but that's a lot of pressure on a young kid that has yet to play a single minute in the NHL. Pinto has potential and it might work, but I'm not sure instant success is a realistic expectation.

Yes, I agree with that. I’d be hopeful that 1-2 of of Tierney, Pinto, Stutzle, Paul, Greig, or Brown could help replace what White provides as a 2-4C but I recognize that each have their own obstacles.

I hope we get to see what Pinto and Brown look like soon.

 

[GCK]

Yes, I agree with that. I’d be hopeful that 1-2 of of Tierney, Pinto, Stutzle, Paul, Greig, or Brown could help replace what White provides as a 2-4C but I recognize that each have their own obstacles.

I hope we get to see what Pinto and Brown look like soon.

White brings way more than 550K of additional value compared to Tierney.

 

[DueDiligence]

All I know is we need to try to get rid of Murray's contract. Dadanov with only 2 years left is easier to stomach then $6 million for what we've seen this year and even if he's better next year, we have solid goalies in the systems and should run a 1a/1b situation.

I'd also like to see em get rid of Zaitsev. He's a third pairing defender on a competitive team and the $4.5 million can be better spent imo. Do what you can to get rid of Murray of Zaitsev

Very reactionary comments. If Chabot's play drops off do you think we should get rid of him?

 

[Sweatred]

White brings way more than 550K of additional value compared to Tierney.

I’m not sure DJ sees it like that. I’m not thrilled with CT’s game this year but I like the idea that CT expires next year vs $21 more we have to pay out to White.

For what it’s worth I don’t have White putting up positive value this year at $4 million. The goals are nice and his shot looks better but there are still a lot of defensive short comings for him to be a 3C and he’s overpaid as a4C. I’d keep White if he could be a shut down 3C but at an AVG of $5+ for the next 4 years I just don’t see it.

I wish DJ would use him to to kill penalties ... at least we would see if he can handle that roll.

 

[Slippy]

So I just took a quick through CapFriendly's Mock Expansion draft app, and noted some names, that seem to be at least be on their team's protection bubble, that may available if the current team doesn't want to lose the asset for nothing. This is very unscientific, as I haven't done any recent viewing/scouting of these players, but I recognize their names. Also, it will depend on the team's protection strategy, for example TBL, personally I'd expose McDonagh hoping Seattle takes the salary and allows them to protect Cernak (younger and cheaper). So take it for what it is worth.

ANA
Manson, Josh 29 RD $4,100,000 UFA (2022)
Shattenkirk, Kevin 32 RD $3,900,000 UFA (2023)

CAL
Andersson, Rasmus 24 RD $4,550,000 UFA (2026)
Tanev, Christopher 31 RD $4,500,000 UFA (2024)

CAR
Pesce, Brett 26 RD $4,025,000 UFA (2024)
Fleury, Haydn 24 LD/RD $1,300,000 RFA (2022)

CHI
De Haan, Calvin 29 LD/RD $4,550,000 UFA (2022)
Murphy, Connor 28 RD $3,850,000 UFA (2022)
Zadorov, Nikita 25 LD/RD $3,200,000 RFA (2021)

DAL
Honka, Julius 25 RD $700,000 RFA (2021)

FLA
Nutivaara, Markus 26 RD $2,700,000 UFA (2022)

MIN
Dumba, Matt 26 RD $6,000,000 UFA (2023)

NAS
Benning, Matthew 26 RD $1,000,000 UFA (2022)

PHI
Braun, Justin 34 RD $1,800,000 UFA (2022)

STL
Bortuzzo, Robert 32 RD $1,375,000 UFA (2022)

TBL
Cernak, Erik 23 RD $2,950,000 RFA (2023)

WIN
Beaulieu, Nathan 28 LD/RD $1,250,000 UFA (2022)