2021 Roster Thread XVI - Where thoughts are both sweet and sour

[DancingPanther]

Niskanen was a home run in year 1. I simply can’t say otherwise. What would year 2 have been? We don’t know. It also required betting on an aging, visibly slowing player who had a bit of a down spell. I wish I could say that was a case study and not a pattern. Fletcher did the same thing with Braun — who has been competent in his limited skill-set. We’ll see about year 3, post re-sign. They paid a luxury cost for a competent 3rd pair defender. Look what the Avs paid for a top pair one.

Pitlick was a fine player, not really a needle mover though, with his myth growing to laughable heights. Turning Hartman into Pitlick worked out for that season — not a bad move — but why did we have Hartman to begin with?

In the end, we are talking 1 single year of Niskanen as a real difference maker. Then it’s Hayes, Laughton’s new deal, whatever money is spent on UFAs this off-season after losing likely better players. While we won 1 round, barely, I’m not really seeing contending shaping moves here.

Don't forget re-signing Elliot!

 

[Beef Invictus]

I don't think they hired Fletcher to a specific mold, they hired Fletcher and then he had to hold off the dogs from above him from blowing assets to try and save that season. And despite what Dave Scott projects, he's definitely under fire again this summer. Clarke and Holmgren both put together teams that got to the finals, some of them by a thread, but if people are like complaining about how this is the same old process as Clarke and Holmgren, I don't know, that sounds better than what we've been subjected to? Holmgren f***ed off a lot, but he was still good for putting together a team that could win a playoff series more than once in a decade.

That Fletcher came in and immediately began making the exact same sorts of moves we've seen for 25 years is detrimental to the assertion that he doesnt fit their mold.

 

[DancingPanther]

Braun in his role has been and still is perfectly adequate, especially for what he's getting paid too. He's the guy we complained about the least this season. Having him here all season as opposed to trading for a guy like him at the deadline was also helpful. And it's not like he would've even still been here if Niskanen didn't retire.


OK well Ron Hextall is not our GM anymore. Ron Hextall is not responsible for last off-season and he's not responsible for this off-season unless of course we make a trade with the Penguins.

The point is this issue is engrained into the "culture" of the Flyers. From the very tippy top all the way down. Until that changes, new plugs will be same as old plugs.

 

[Redpath]

Fletcher inherited a seemingly overrated core that is not anywhere capable of being built around, and people are upset that he traded mid-round picks for playoff depth during our best stretch in a decade.

 

[deadhead]

Ok, you have a narrow definition of impact players. I understand the discussion better, so thank you.

But now you're telling me they gave a complimentary player on the backside of his prime or just leaving it a contract worth 7/50. That's bad. Very, very, very bad. I'm sure you'll tell me it was going UFA rate. It felt a little high at the time to me because he didn't get relief in AAV or term, but fair enough. That doesn't make it a good contract, though. It's awful.

Huh? Prime years are 24-32 or so forwards, maybe an extra year or two for defensemen.
Hayes deal started at 27, so similar to JVR, who'll also be 33 when his deal ends, same price.
JVR is a better scorer, but Hayes has more value as a center who PKs and plays PP2. Centers are much harder to find, as we well know.

It's not a great contract, Fletcher wasn't in position to bargain hunt with Scott pushing to make the playoffs, and I suspect AV lobbied for Hayes, a player he knew and probably didn't want to lose in NY.

But it's certainly not an awful contract.

I'd like to see a healthy Hayes play with wings that fit, like JVR/Laughton/Farabee/Allison, and keep him far away from Voracek!

 

[Starat327]

Spicy.

 

[Striiker]

I can't believe that this is the one thing that we all can't universally agree on

There's literally nothing possible that the turd polishers won't defend. He could trade Couturier and Giroux for 7th round picks and there would be posts saying why it actually doesn't matter.

 

[GKJ]

That Fletcher came in and immediately began making the exact same sorts of moves we've seen for 25 years is detrimental to the assertion that he doesnt fit their mold.

Immediately - he didn't. They wanted Fletcher to come in and immediately turn things around, he had to go back and tell them the season was already gone, and I'd imagine Holmgren backed him up (not like they were gonna fire the guy after a few months). That meant he had to deliver on the next off-season which - based on strictly results - happened. Their best stretch was the 2 hot months, but they overall had a great home record and the casual fanbase had confidence. Fletcher is still a patient GM at his core, whether that's good or bad, that's not 'typical Flyers.'

 

[Starat327]

There's literally nothing possible that the turd polishers won't defend. He could trade Couturier and Giroux for 7th round picks and there would be posts saying why it actually doesn't matter.

"They weren't going to re sign here anyway. At least he got some value."

 

[04hockey]

Eichel wants a certain surgery.....

Sabres don't want him getting that surgery .....

How could any GM look past just this situation and not ask bookoo questions is mindboggling

 

[Striiker]

"They weren't going to re sign here anyway. At least he got some value."

"They were an overrated core who couldn't get it done here. The culture changealone is enough to make this worth it. Now Fletcher can make it his team."

 

[JojoTheWhale]

Huh? Prime years are 24-32 or so forwards, maybe an extra year or two for defensemen.

Every study I've seen on aging curves does not agree with this at all. If there's better info out there, I would be extremely interested in reading it.

 

[GKJ]

The point is this issue is engrained into the "culture" of the Flyers. From the very tippy top all the way down. Until that changes, new plugs will be same as old plugs.

I feel like we just spent the entire 56-game season talking about how the Flyers culture is dead and debated whether or not Comcast actually cared.

Every study I've seen on aging curves does not agree with this at all. If there's better info out there, I would be extremely interested in reading it.

Everything I see on that says 28 is pushing it.

 

[Beef Invictus]

Immediately - he didn't. They wanted Fletcher to come in and immediately turn things around, he had to go back and tell them the season was already gone, and I'd imagine Holmgren backed him up (not like they were gonna fire the guy after a few months). That meant he had to deliver on the next off-season which - based on strictly results - happened. Their best stretch was the 2 hot months, but they overall had a great home record and the casual fanbase had confidence. Fletcher is still a patient GM at his core, whether that's good or bad, that's not 'typical Flyers.'

Overpaying for old players and then whiffing on a goonsquad is vintage Flyers Hockey. He was brought in because he works like they did.

 

[deadhead]

Every study I've seen on aging curves does not agree with this at all. If there's better info out there, I would be extremely interested in reading it.

Brander, Egan and Yeung, Estimating the Effects of Age on NHL player Performance, JQAS 2014..

I don't believe them or any other study I've seen. But if you want to use 22-29 for early arrivers and 24 -31 or so for later arrivals, that's about as reasonable as anything I've seen.

1) studies look at averages, but generally ignore the "early arrivers" and "late arrivers" effect. Early arrivers skew age curve younger, b/c they peak early, and thus are more likely to decline (simply because in a sample of top talents, injury, etc. will cause decay while it's hard for them to improve, it's like the guy who runs a sub-4.00 mile, easier to slow down that to get faster). Later arrivals peak later and then start declining from a later peak.

2) survivor issues, how do you handle players who haven't "declined" but got a serious injury? We're trying to measure decline due to age, not decline due to "events." Since injuries are generally stochastic (with some genetic component) you'd want to cull them from the data.

Though neither Hayes nor Voracek made this list:

Projecting the NHL's 15 Worst Contracts

 

[deadhead]

Brander, Egan and Yeung, Estimating the Effects of Age on NHL player Performance, JQAS 2014..

I don't believe them or any other study I've seen. But if you want to use 22-29 for early arrivers and 24 -31 or so for later arrivals, that's about as reasonable as anything I've seen.

1) studies look at averages, but generally ignore the "early arrivers" and "late arrivers" effect. Early arrivers skew age curve younger, b/c they peak early, and thus are more likely to decline (simply because in a sample of top talents, injury, etc. will cause decay while it's hard for them to improve, it's like the guy who runs a sub-4.00 mile, easier to slow down that to get faster). Later arrivals peak later and then start declining from a later peak.

2) survivor issues, how do you handle players who haven't "declined" but got a serious injury? We're trying to measure decline due to age, not decline due to "events." Since injuries are generally stochastic (with some genetic component) you'd want to cull them from the data.

Though neither Hayes nor Voracek made this list:

Projecting the NHL's 15 Worst Contracts

This may also explain some SC teams, while the best teams tend to have a core in the 25-29 range, the two groups that also show up are "early arrivals", that is a couple top talents in their early 20s (Kane and Toews for example) and some solid complementary veterans in their early 30s (often late arrivals).

What you don't want are too many second tier talents in their early 20s (i.e. rushed due to lack of depth) or too many veterans in their 30s.

 

[DAVIDE1333]

If Eichel were to have the surgery, what is the recovery time?

 

[deadhead]

Overpaying for old players and then whiffing on a goonsquad is vintage Flyers Hockey. He was brought in because he works like they did.

So you want to dump Voracek and let G walk?

 

[GKJ]

Overpaying for old players and then whiffing on a goonsquad is vintage Flyers Hockey. He was brought in because he works like they did.

Where are all these old overpaid players on the Flyers that Fletcher brought in? Hayes is 29 but that's not old. He should've had a better backup goaltender, but the whole off-season was about Fletcher not wanting to commit to anybody on the free agent market. He could've had both Toffoli and Brodie if he would've given them an extra year.

 

[Beef Invictus]

So you want to dump Voracek and let G walk?

What

 

[Beef Invictus]

Where are all these old overpaid players on the Flyers that Fletcher brought in? Hayes is 29 but that's not old. He should've had a better backup goaltender, but the whole off-season was about Fletcher not wanting to commit to anybody on the free agent market. He could've had both Toffoli and Brodie if he would've given them an extra year.

They paid too much for Braun, and considering they only got a year out of a Niskanen who'd already shown signs of wearing down, they overpaid there. They overpaid for Thompson, they overpaid Stewart just by virtue of paying him, and likewise for Prosser. It's a steady Holmgrenian bleed of assets and cap.

 

[DancingPanther]

What

"Well Giroux and Voracek are past their primes so since you only want small fast skilled young players there's obviously no room for Giroux or Voracek on your fantasy team"

Money back guarantee on this one

 

[Beef Invictus]

"Well Giroux and Voracek are past their primes so since you only want small fast skilled young players there's obviously no room for Giroux or Voracek on your fantasy team"

Money back guarantee on this one

 

[Lindberg]

I'd rather them make a home run swing for Eichel and then have it all apart than just ho hum along as business as usual. There hasn't been a single playoff series this team has played in since at least a decade where i was like "they look good".

 

[Beef Invictus]

Pitlick was fine. Braun, definitely not, and I still have issues with the Niskanen deal, despite his legendary accomplishments.

He's the reason we made the playoffs lol