2020 Standings and Draft pick watch thread

[Wallet Inspector]

I've bitched about this a lot, but I seriously can't believe the level of entitlement from some fans of other teams.

They get to watch a good team all year, they get the chance to contend the next few years, but they seriously think they should be able to get a top 3 pick because they didn't win a Cup this year

 

[starling]

There is some sense to it.

A team like Colorado or Carolina or Columbus would get a surge of new fans and revenues for several years if they get a Cup. Losing out on that could be devastating. As an old Expos fan, I can definitely see how that can change the course of a franchise.

I mean it's a force majeure kind of situation. It's bad for everyone.
The biggest bummer is when you trade away your future for a cup run and the cup run doesn't happen.
I'd be OK if the league gave teams that traded picks for pending UFAs compensatory picks in the draft.
Like Jets getting compensatory 3rd round pick for DeMelo for example.

 

[Liver King]

So..

1) keep the same system, where teams outside the "playoffs" keep their lottery odds only - this is unfair to playoff placed teams as there are no actual playoffs happening

2) give all teams lottery odds - this is unfair to non playoff teams as it weakens their position, and an advantage to teams who in the current system have 0 chance of getting a lottery pick.

3) give no teams lottery odds/draft as is (under total points or point percentage). No team or group (playoff vs non playoff) gets and advantage over the other.

As lottery odds generally give you the highest chance to stay put or move down, IF the season is over staying put with the current drafting order is imo the "fairest" way to go. Would just need to decide to go by total points of point percentage (point percentage making more sense to me)

 

[Viletho]

I disagree with your disagreement.

Edit:
Damn the picture dont work.

It was a One piece luffy's picture who says I refuse your refusal.

 

[Micklebot]

Edit:
Damn the picture dont work.

It was a One piece luffy's picture who says I refuse your refusal.

You just need to make sure the url ends in .jpg and use the insert image button.

 

[Cosmix]

I think we will see a suspension of the regular season for about a 3 week period followed by a shortened playoff with positions determined by percentages and using 3 game series until we get to the SC final which could be 5 games. The draft would proceed under current rules so no teams would get offended.

 

[Sensinitis]

There’s zero chance playoff teams get lottery odds. zero.

Half the NHL teams would be filling up Daly’s and Bettman’s voicemail with complaints and giving anyone and everyone they can crap. It simply won’t happen because of the potential outrage.

 

[starling]

3) give no teams lottery odds/draft as is (under total points or point percentage). No team or group (playoff vs non playoff) gets and advantage over the other.

As lottery odds generally give you the highest chance to stay put or move down, IF the season is over staying put with the current drafting order is imo the "fairest" way to go. Would just need to decide to go by total points of point percentage (point percentage making more sense to me)

Love it. Simple and makes a lot of sense. The whole point of the lottery is to prevent teams from tanking (or so they say), so it supposedly had already fulfilled its purpose.
Cancel the playoffs? Might as well cancel the lottery then.

 

[starling]

I think we will see a suspension of the regular season for about a 3 week period followed by a shortened playoff with positions determined by percentages and using 3 game series until we get to the SC final which could be 5 games. The draft would proceed under current rules so no teams would get offended.

Honestly can't see it settling down in 2 months. Even in the best-case scenario, there will still be thousands of sick people in May, no vaccine and lots of risks to kick-start the pandemic again.

 

[Alf Silfversson]

If there are no playoffs my proposal would be:

1) Run the lottery as is but expand the lottery picks to the first 5.
2) Once step 1 is done you redistribute 100% of the balls to the remaining 26 teams for a secondary lottery. Odds to be inversely related to points percentage.
3) The rest of the first round picks are lottery picks.

No playoff team gets a top 5 pick but bubble teams get their fair share at a really good pick.

 

[JD1]

I've been thinking about the odds of us getting pushed down, how to actually calculate them. There is some precision behind the algorithm that needs to be factored in but I have no idea how tank nation built it so I took the odds at face value as presented on the site.

the lottery balls only account for the top 3 picks, the most likely scenario that we don't win a top 3 pick is the balls fall 1,4,5 which pushes us to 4 and then 5. I have the odds of that happening at 23%. I got that by multiplying 75%*59.3%*52.5%.

the odds of us getting pushed to 5 and 6 are much lower. I have them at 15% by multiplying 56.5*49.7*52.5 which is the 4th, 5th and 6th teams moving up to 1, 2, 3, leaving Detroit 4 and us 5 and 6

Obviously any scenario can happen, but the most probably scenarios that can happen are 1, 4, 5 and worse yet it 4, 5, 6

note on the site on the lotery balls
3. The 1st overall pick is awarded by a drawing of ping pong balls
4. The 2nd overall pick is awarded by a drawing of ping pong balls
5. The 3rd overall pick is awarded by a drawing of ping pong balls
6. Remaining lottery teams, sorted by points, fill out picks 4-15

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

 

[Micklebot]

I've been thinking about the odds of us getting pushed down, how to actually calculate them. There is some precision behind the algorithm that needs to be factored in but I have no idea how tank nation built it so I took the odds at face value as presented on the site.

the lottery balls only account for the top 3 picks, the most likely scenario that we don't win a top 3 pick is the balls fall 1,4,5 which pushes us to 4 and then 5. I have the odds of that happening at 23%. I got that by multiplying 75%*59.3%*52.5%.

the odds of us getting pushed to 5 and 6 are much lower. I have them at 15% by multiplying 56.5*49.7*52.5 which is the 4th, 5th and 6th teams moving up to 1, 2, 3, leaving Detroit 4 and us 5 and 6

Obviously any scenario can happen, but the most probably scenarios that can happen are 1, 4, 5 and worse yet it 4, 5, 6

note on the site on the lotery balls
3. The 1st overall pick is awarded by a drawing of ping pong balls
4. The 2nd overall pick is awarded by a drawing of ping pong balls
5. The 3rd overall pick is awarded by a drawing of ping pong balls
6. Remaining lottery teams, sorted by points, fill out picks 4-15

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

So, i don't know specifically how tanknation did it, but this ESPN article gives a pretty detailed explanation of how it's done for the NHL.

The NHL draft lottery: Key dates, schedule and how it all works

How is the drawing conducted?
There are 14 lottery balls, numbered 1 through 14. They're kept in a sealed case, so unless there's an "Ocean's Thirteen"-like scheme in which they're tampered with at the factory, their integrity is intact. The balls are loaded 1-through-14 into the machine by a different lottery technician each year, with representatives from Ernst and Young as well as Bettman looking on. Once the balls are loaded, the machine is switched on by the technician. NHL executive VP of events Dean Matsuzaki, with his back turned to the machine, calls for a draw of each of four balls at 15-second intervals, with Bettman making the draw.
When the winner of the first drawing is verified, the four balls drawn are released back into the machine. The same procedure follows for the second and third drawings. Since a team can't win more than one drawing, a redraw is conducted after a repeat winner

 

[Sweatred]

If there are no playoffs my proposal would be:

1) Run the lottery as is but expand the lottery picks to the first 5.
2) Once step 1 is done you redistribute 100% of the balls to the remaining 26 teams for a secondary lottery. Odds to be inversely related to points percentage.
3) The rest of the first round picks are lottery picks.

No playoff team gets a top 5 pick but bubble teams get their fair share at a really good pick.

No thanks -

 

[Alf Silfversson]

No thanks -

You just can't argue with this kind of scintillating analysis. Well crafted!!

 

[Cosmix]

Love it. Simple and makes a lot of sense. The whole point of the lottery is to prevent teams from tanking (or so they say), so it supposedly had already fulfilled its purpose.
Cancel the playoffs? Might as well cancel the lottery then.

I like the way you argued about the lottery system already fulfilling its purpose.

 

[Benttheknee]

Just because I was bored I ran the draft simulator 50x and recorded the results. I am of course assuming Tankathon simulator is accurate to what will happen.

Top pick 24%
Top 3 Pick 66%
Two in the top 3: 10%
None 1-3: 34%
None 1-4: 14%

This seems reasonably representative. It appears for the most part that two picks in the top 3 is going to be similar odds to picking 5+6.

The most common was 4,5 which was picked 20% of the time.

One quirk I got was picking 5,6 3 times in a row, but only 7 times total.

 

[Six Assets]

been busy for the last while so i just realized that we'll likely get picks 5 and 6 at worst. works for me lol.

 

[jhutter]

Just because I was bored I ran the draft simulator 50x and recorded the results. I am of course assuming Tankathon simulator is accurate to what will happen.

Top pick 24%
Top 3 Pick 66%
Two in the top 3: 10%
None 1-3: 34%
None 1-4: 14%

This seems reasonably representative. It appears for the most part that two picks in the top 3 is going to be similar odds to picking 5+6.

The most common was 4,5 which was picked 20% of the time.

One quirk I got was picking 5,6 3 times in a row, but only 7 times total.

One quirk I have is that I get 5 and 6 on the first "spin" about 70-80% of the time. After a few tries, the lottery picks start rolling in.

 

[JD1]

Just because I was bored I ran the draft simulator 50x and recorded the results. I am of course assuming Tankathon simulator is accurate to what will happen.

Top pick 24%
Top 3 Pick 66%
Two in the top 3: 10%
None 1-3: 34%
None 1-4: 14%

This seems reasonably representative. It appears for the most part that two picks in the top 3 is going to be similar odds to picking 5+6.

The most common was 4,5 which was picked 20% of the time.

One quirk I got was picking 5,6 3 times in a row, but only 7 times total.

A couple of posts above yours i have a post on calculating the odds of the two events

I had 5 and 6 at 15% which is consistent with your 14% result.

Your none of the top 3 result is higher than the odds i believe

I certainly want 1OA but anything resulting in 2 of the top 4 is a good result

 

[ReginKarlssonLehner]

I certainly want 1OA but anything resulting in 2 of the top 4 is a hood result

 

[ChurchOfAlfie]

The good news for us is that we have some heavyweight owners in the non-playoff group that will lobby the NHL over the TBD draft process. It's not difficult for the league to screw over the Senators, the Coyotes and the Panthers. Much more difficult to screw over the Rangers, Blackhawks and Canadiens.

 

[OUTHOUSE]

Watch them do a playoffs for all teams, and the Sharks go far, and we win 1 round and pick 10.

 

[Sweatred]

The good news for us is that we have some heavyweight owners in the non-playoff group that will lobby the NHL over the TBD draft process. It's not difficult for the league to screw over the Senators, the Coyotes and the Panthers. Much more difficult to screw over the Rangers, Blackhawks and Canadiens.

... and Kings, Ducks, Devils ...

 

[Silencio]

... and Kings, Ducks, Devils ...

Red Wings...