2020 Sleepers

[DatDude44]

Matteo Costantini. High end IQ, great hands, very good vision and goal scoring ability, super smooth skating and good feet(great at corralling bad passes without losing much speed), possesses a high work ethic and is extremely humble.

I wouldn’t be shocked if he ended up the 7th rd diamond in the rough a la Ondrej Palat

Ay he got drafted

 

[Finster8]

Another 7 rder for Calgary, Ilya Solovyov D who had a very good 1st season playing in Saginaw. He was leading scorer on D for the Spirit. At 6'3 210 he has good foot speed, and physical.
GP-53 G-7 A-33 Pt-40 +43

 

[OgeeOgelthorpe]

I think Kris Draper read the first page of this thread because the Wings picked Alex Cotton and Cross Hanas. I think Hanas becomes a bigger steal because the kid has phenomenal hands. Cotton needs to put in way more work in his skating.

 

[EXTRAS]

Instead of trying to find players I like, I tend to look at categories of players that are undervalued. Today I'll write about birthdate.
These are picks after pick 50. If you look at forwards by age they were selected (x axis), and the pick used (the y axis), then calculate the number of NHL games played using 2005-2015, you see that if draft first-time players (17 year olds), there are 594 picks. They produce about 28.5 games per pick (as of now). Picking D1 players (18 year olds), 215 picks with 27.7 NHL games per pick, and D2 players (19 year olds), 105 picks produce 25.4 NHL games per pick. Nothing exciting.View attachment 350218

But if you divide by month, it shows that the most undervalued players were undrafted and young (May to Sept birthday) and chosen in their second year.

View attachment 350219

The image may be too blurry to see, but the green bars (NHL games played per pick) are much bigger for the group selected just over 1 year in. Also note how little you receive from drafting Jan, Feb, and March born players (bars 6-8 for 17 year olds, bars 18-20 for 18 year olds)

Defensemen are a little simpler. You get almost twice as many games from 19 year old picks as you do from 17 year olds. Over this 10 year span, there were 374 17 year old defensemen picked, generating an average of 15.9 NHL games per pick. 18 year olds were 103 pics with 22.2 NHL games per pick, and 19 year olds 62 picks, 27.8 NHL games per pick.

View attachment 350228

Defensemen by month creates a chart with green bars very similar to forwards.

View attachment 350241

Next time I sit down, I will talk about the players that fit into this undervalued areas.

@rakish

You got anything like this on the burner again?

 

[Michoulicious]

@rakish

You got anything like this on the burner again?

Yes, the only "sleeper" talked about that was not a bust is his Ridly Greig.

Of course he was a late 1st while most here were very late picks, still interesting.

 

[EXTRAS]

Yes, the only "sleeper" talked about that was not a bust is his Ridly Greig.

Of course he was a late 1st while most here were very late picks, still interesting.

He predicted Adam Wilsby, Declan Carlile, Mason Lohrei, seppalla who are all developing well.

Not stars but you are looking for serviceable players at that point.

 

[Michoulicious]

He predicted Adam Wilsby, Declan Carlile, Mason Lohrei, seppalla who are all developing well.

Not stars but you are looking for serviceable players at that point.

Maybe I was not clear, but I was pointing at the fact his picks were better than most.