2020 OHL Trade Deadline Preview

[Brock]

An annual tradition which generates a ton of discussion, here is my preview of this year's OHL Trade Deadline.

OHL Prospects: 2020 OHL Trade Deadline Preview

Happy to answer any questions as to my reasoning on a few things.

Click to read more...

 

[ohloutsider]

An annual tradition which generates a ton of discussion, here is my preview of this year's OHL Trade Deadline.

OHL Prospects: 2020 OHL Trade Deadline Preview

Happy to answer any questions as to my reasoning on a few things.

As usual very interesting Brock - thanks for this - also real fun to read on Jan 11th

 

[nelli27]

Although highly speculative, I really enjoy reading your thoughts on player movement. Hope it becomes a yearly tradition.
One question: Are any of your predictions based on anything other than educated guesswork?

 

[sbpointer]

I'd be ok if the Knights part of this list shakes down...

 

[fishfan51]

I'm surprised Lodnia wouldn't be predicted to be moved.

 

[Fischhaber]

I'm having difficulty understanding your reasoning on the Greyhounds, outside of Hayton.

With a huge core of 2001 born players, they are clearly building for a Championship run in the next 2 seasons. I don't know why they would deal away a pair of excellent OA candidates with that in mind.

I'm not even convinced that they are giving up on this season. Christian Propp single handedly tanked their start, but they are 11-4-1 with Brkin and still in the mix for a division title. They look a lot like the Greyhounds teams that we are used to seeing in first place. In interviews with the GM, he seems really excited to see where this team goes in a wide open West playoffs.

I'm not saying they buy, but advanced metrics see them as an elite team and I think they will be hesitant to sell off pieces that are useful both in the present and future.

 

[Ferda11]

I think most Sting fans would have to challenge you on your take on McGregor. Missing a good chunk off the go due to injury and having to play through it has slowed him down a bit but there in no better two-way forward as an OA in this league then him. He does everything right almost every time he touches the puck. Most underrated player in this league. I'd take him over Josling in a trade in an instant. He is a definite upgrade for most teams.

 

[EvenSteven]

You have 2025 pick(s) moving in at least one deal. Picks only up to 2024 can be moved under the current rules.

 

[Brock]

You have 2025 pick(s) moving in at least one deal. Picks only up to 2024 can be moved under the current rules.

My understanding of the new rules is that 2025 is the limit this year (had checked in on this too). This article would corroborate this too. OHL limits trading of draft picks into the future.

States starting in 2020, the maximum is five years in the future (would put 2025 as the limit this year).

But I could be wrong (in addition to those that I checked in with). The OHL's rules have never been the most clear...

 

[Brock]

Although highly speculative, I really enjoy reading your thoughts on player movement. Hope it becomes a yearly tradition.
One question: Are any of your predictions based on anything other than educated guesswork?

Both educated guesswork and things that I'm being told or have heard. It's probably about 70/30 (in favor of educated guesswork).

 

[Brock]

I'm surprised Lodnia wouldn't be predicted to be moved.

I wouldn't be shocked at all if he did. But the reality is...there just aren't many OA's who will move. Teams seemed pretty locked in to what they have, even if it's not the same quality of player. The example I'll give is Jack Phibbs in Flint. No question there are better players out there. But he wears an A and has stuck with that franchise; been with them through the lowest of the lows. I can't see them moving on from him. Would be a tough sell in the room. And that's just one example.

 

[AttackSound]

An annual tradition which generates a ton of discussion, here is my preview of this year's OHL Trade Deadline.

OHL Prospects: 2020 OHL Trade Deadline Preview

Happy to answer any questions as to my reasoning on a few things.

Your prediction on Owen Sound is interesting that's to say the least. Although I'd be very surprised to see AD get moved unless there was a major bidding war on him. Could it happen again like they did with Suzuki, Phillips, Durzi, Robert's and Hancock last year well yes but with such an limited experience core of depth players in Owen Sound I find it hard to see AD moved until a return is a dropped jaw type move that saw multiple younger talented players and assets in return to OS. A lot of this has to do with standings postitions and expectations on OS management to achieve a post-season spot.

 

[Brock]

I'm having difficulty understanding your reasoning on the Greyhounds, outside of Hayton.

With a huge core of 2001 born players, they are clearly building for a Championship run in the next 2 seasons. I don't know why they would deal away a pair of excellent OA candidates with that in mind.

I'm not even convinced that they are giving up on this season. Christian Propp single handedly tanked their start, but they are 11-4-1 with Brkin and still in the mix for a division title. They look a lot like the Greyhounds teams that we are used to seeing in first place. In interviews with the GM, he seems really excited to see where this team goes in a wide open West playoffs.

I'm not saying they buy, but advanced metrics see them as an elite team and I think they will be hesitant to sell off pieces that are useful both in the present and future.

I guess we see the Greyhounds future in a different light. In two years? Absolutely. I could see this team being a Championship contender when Mackay, Carroll, Calisti are OA's. And Dickinson, Kerins, Holmes, etc are all older and impact players.

But next year, I think this team finds itself in a similar spot. Middle of the pack. They've sold a lot of the future in recent years to go on runs, so I think that they look to make a few moves on guys who won't be around in two years.

 

[OMG67]

Both educated guesswork and things that I'm being told or have heard. It's probably about 70/30 (in favor of educated guesswork).

If that is true, it means Ottawa is just going to pretty much keep status quo and add a couple depth players.

That would be disappointing to say the least.

 

[Brock]

I think most Sting fans would have to challenge you on your take on McGregor. Missing a good chunk off the go due to injury and having to play through it has slowed him down a bit but there in no better two-way forward as an OA in this league then him. He does everything right almost every time he touches the puck. Most underrated player in this league. I'd take him over Josling in a trade in an instant. He is a definite upgrade for most teams.

I've noticed...

I didn't say McGregor wasn't a smart player. He is. But I think every team has a McGregor. If I'm pushing for the playoffs and a Championship, I would want the healthier player and I would want the guy who succeeds more in between the hash marks and IMO that's Josling.

McGregor could very well move. Wouldn't shock me in the least. There are just OA's that I would rather...like Jason Willms in Barrie or Ivan Lodnia in Niagara, for example.

 

[EvenSteven]

My understanding of the new rules is that 2025 is the limit this year (had checked in on this too). This article would corroborate this too. OHL limits trading of draft picks into the future.

States starting in 2020, the maximum is five years in the future (would put 2025 as the limit this year).

But I could be wrong (in addition to those that I checked in with). The OHL's rules have never been the most clear...

That article tells me that five years starting in 2020 means picks in the years 2020, 21, 22, 23, and 24.

Then next year, only to 2024 again.

I don’t have time to look right now, but has there been a draft pick from the 2025 draft traded since this rule came down?

 

[member 71782]

My understanding of the new rules is that 2025 is the limit this year (had checked in on this too). This article would corroborate this too. OHL limits trading of draft picks into the future.

States starting in 2020, the maximum is five years in the future (would put 2025 as the limit this year).

But I could be wrong (in addition to those that I checked in with). The OHL's rules have never been the most clear...

While I haven't found the original article I believe it initially stated starting last year it would be 6 years out with the limit being 2024. I think this is what was posted on the OHL site originally. Then of course this year would become 5 years and next year 4 years with all ending in the year 2024.

I believe the confusion comes, and this may sound confusing but it comes from people adding calendar years and not the number of years those draft picks are in.

For example the number of years those draft picks are in this year at the deadline up to the pre draft trade period are 2020/21/22/23/24 which is 5 years of draft picks over a 4 calendar year timeframe.

This was my understanding when I first read it and I believe it was on the OHL site where I first read it.

Hopefully this helps.

Edit:

Another way to look at it by calendar years is a new year for trades starts June 1st and ends with the pre draft trading period which would mean a 5 year calendar window that started June 1st 2019 ends in 2024.

 

[Brock]

While I haven't found the original article I believe it initially stated starting last year it would be 6 years out with the limit being 2024. I think this is what was posted on the OHL site originally. Then of course this year would become 5 years and next year 4 years with all ending in the year 2024.

I believe the confusion comes, and this may sound confusing but it comes from people adding calendar years and not the number of years those draft picks are in.

For example the number of years those draft picks are in this year at the deadline up to the pre draft trade period are 2020/21/22/23/24 which is 5 years of draft picks over a 4 calendar year timeframe.

This was my understanding when I first read it and I believe it was on the OHL site where I first read it.

Hopefully this helps.

Edit:

Another way to look at it by calendar years is a new year for trades starts June 1st and ends with the pre draft trading period which would mean a 5 year calendar window that started June 1st 2019 ends in 2024.

Yeah, I believe you and @EvenSteven are correct. I've changed the two 2025 London picks that I had changing hands.

 

[member 71782]

Yeah, I believe you and @EvenSteven are correct. I've changed the two 2025 London picks that I had changing hands.

Just what I remembered from when the rule change came into effect all the dates mentioned ended in 2024.

Either way as always an interesting and well thought out list.

 

[Fischhaber]

I guess we see the Greyhounds future in a different light. In two years? Absolutely. I could see this team being a Championship contender when Mackay, Carroll, Calisti are OA's. And Dickinson, Kerins, Holmes, etc are all older and impact players.

But next year, I think this team finds itself in a similar spot. Middle of the pack. They've sold a lot of the future in recent years to go on runs, so I think that they look to make a few moves on guys who won't be around in two years.

I just don't think they gathered 10 players from the same draft class for no reason. To me, that's a strong signal that they intend to go for it next season.

They lead the league in goals this season and have given up the 4th fewest shots. Had competent goaltending been in place from the start, they would surely be leading the division right now and the narrative may be different.

I think that the elite underlying stats will eventually even out and that the team will surprise you going forward.

 

[dirty12]

[... https://mobile.twitter.com/OHLHockey/status/1034904577026355200?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1034904577026355200&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fs9e.github.io%2Fiframe%2F2%2Ftwitter.min
This does read as 6 drafts up to 2020 priority draft. Now I’m wondering why there has not been a trade involving a 2025 pick yet this season and pre-season.]

 

[member 71782]

[... https://mobile.twitter.com/OHLHockey/status/1034904577026355200?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1034904577026355200&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fs9e.github.io%2Fiframe%2F2%2Ftwitter.min
This does read as 6 drafts up to 2020 priority draft. Now I’m wondering why there has not been a trade involving a 2025 pick yet this season and pre-season.]

No 2025 picks dealt last year either that I recall.

 

[Section7fan]

If that is true, it means Ottawa is just going to pretty much keep status quo and add a couple depth players.

That would be disappointing to say the least.

Same would be said by Petes fans.

 

[Voice from the North]

Brock, would Sudbury be in on any higher end defensemen? Right now they have a bunch who are mobile but aren't number 1 or 2 guys, very soft and not really defensive players.

 

[aresknights]

TY Brock.

Always appreciated.