2020 NHL Draft discussion

[Paulie Gualtieri]

Don't think we have a thread up for this yet, correct me if we do.

Share any news, observations, theories, wishes, yadda yadda, related to the Penguins and the 2020 NHL draft.

I'll start off by saying that I expect JR to focus on D, considering that we just traded our best prospect in that department.

Click to read more...

 

[Night Shift]

I'd like to see BPA and for the next couple drafts invest goaltender to keep the pipe line strong.

 

[Gurglesons]

We probably won’t pick until the 5th tbh.

 

[FreeBobbyFarnham]

There's not much to discuss since we don't have any pick in the first two rounds.

Now if JR finds a way to get a late first/early 2nd, then I'd want him to draft William Villeneuve with that pick. Kid is a stud.

 

[dogthateats]

As of right now I think we only have our 3rd, 4th, 5th, and 6th round picks.

 

[Speaking Moistly]

As of right now I think we only have our 3rd, 4th, 5th, and 6th round picks.

Yeah, that’s right barring a complete collapse where they miss the POs and decide to keep the 1st.

 

[CheckingLineCenter]

Think we’re gonna trade up. Maybe not for a first, but I think we’ll pick in first 60. Just a gut feeling.

 

[Speaking Moistly]

Think we’re gonna trade up. Maybe not for a first, but I think we’ll pick in first 60. Just a gut feeling.

I wouldn’t be surprised if a goalie and one of McCann, Simon or Kahun get moved. They’ll probably get picks for that. We’ll see if Bjugstad has a strong enough run to get something, too.

 

[Peat]

BPA. Their main worth to the org will be as trade bait, so who cares if they fit here, just get the player who'll be worth more in trade.

I'd like it if they continued to bias towards overagers later on.

 

[Jules Winnfield]

The Pens are likely going to have to deal Murray after this season. They aren’t going to have 1/8th the cap space taken up by two goaltenders in the final window years of Crosby and Malkin. What they get for Murray will be determined by how well he plays the rest of the year.

If Murray plays well he will return a 1st round pick.

I’m a big believer in picking BPA. I’d like to see the Pens pick a center because we have zero young centers in the system with top six abilities/skill but you really should go BPA.

 

[Malkinstheman]

I think they will pick a goalie in the middle rounds. We're gonna trade one of the big two in the summer and our only two G prospects have been meh.

 

[Andy99]

The Pens are likely going to have to deal Murray after this season. They aren’t going to have 1/8th the cap space taken up by two goaltenders in the final window years of Crosby and Malkin. What they get for Murray will be determined by how well he plays the rest of the year.

If Murray plays well he will return a 1st round pick.

I’m a big believer in picking BPA. I’d like to see the Pens pick a center because we have zero young centers in the system with top six abilities/skill but you really should go BPA.

Let’s hope he wins another Cup for us and we can get one of Ottawa’s top 10 picks for him...

 

[Jacob]

Would our 3rd + 4th land a mid-2nd?

The only assets we have and are realistically likely to trade that could fetch a 1st is one of the goalies but I think if we do deal one it’ll be for a return that provides more immediate help than a 1st. It’d be weird to trade a 1st for Zucker because the window is closing then trade a goalie for a 1st a few months later.

Bjugstad and DeSmith could potentially get us some more late rounders.

 

[rmartin65]

I would wager the Pens focus on defense this year, with maybe a goalie and/or center thrown in.

 

[JTG]

1. Sell all late round picks for players like John Marino
2. Profit

Would our 3rd + 4th land a mid-2nd?

The only assets we have and are realistically likely to trade that could fetch a 1st is one of the goalies but I think if we do deal one it’ll be for a return that provides more immediate help than a 1st. It’d be weird to trade a 1st for Zucker because the window is closing then trade a goalie for a 1st a few months later.

Bjugstad and DeSmith could potentially get us some more late rounders.

I've actually thought this to myself, especially when people say "Murray will fetch us a 1st." I honestly think JR makes a hockey trade with Murray. If he has shown anything it's that draft picks really don't matter to him right now. I could see a big blockbuster trade going down involving Murray and multiple other pieces here and not many, if any, draft picks come back in return.

I actually thought DeSmith would have been gone already. I don't think JR will have an opportunity to flip Bjugstad, so hopefully he can come back and find a spot in the lineup where he can be successful and add some value back. If he has a good playoffs, he could be a decent trade chip for us, or answer the issue at 1RW or 3C.

 

[Mr Jiggyfly]

CapFriendly has a nice little tracker for all draft picks traded here:

Pittsburgh Penguins - CapFriendly - NHL Salary Caps

You can quickly see their picks and the conditions, who it was traded to etc

Pens are missing their 7th rounder as well this year.

But next season they don’t have their fourth or sixth, but have an extra seventh.

 

[Peat]

I've actually thought this to myself, especially when people say "Murray will fetch us a 1st." I honestly think JR makes a hockey trade with Murray. If he has shown anything it's that draft picks really don't matter to him right now. I could see a big blockbuster trade going down involving Murray and multiple other pieces here and not many, if any, draft picks come back in return.

I actually thought DeSmith would have been gone already. I don't think JR will have an opportunity to flip Bjugstad, so hopefully he can come back and find a spot in the lineup where he can be successful and add some value back. If he has a good playoffs, he could be a decent trade chip for us, or answer the issue at 1RW or 3C.

The problem with making a hockey trade is that moving a goaltender (or whoever) isn't all about solving roster issues, it's also about getting under the cap. Unless we are solely taking back minimum wage players, *somebody* has to go for picks and prospects. And while I'm sure Rutherford would prefer guys closer to the NHL, GMs would prefer not to give them.

 

[CrosbyMalkin]

I wouldn’t be surprised if a goalie and one of McCann, Simon or Kahun get moved. They’ll probably get picks for that. We’ll see if Bjugstad has a strong enough run to get something, too.

I would be surprised if any of McCann, Kahun, Murray, or Jarry was traded. Next year's team looks like this to me.

Zucker-Crosby-Kahun
Guentzel-Malkin-Rust
Simon-McCann-Hornqvist
ZAR-Blueger-Tanev

Dumoulin-Letang
Pettersson-Marino
JJ-??

Murray
jarry

I also wouldn't be surprised if Poulin beats out someone like ZAR or Simon and makes a 3rd line Poulin-McCann-Hornqvist. Bjugstad will most likely be gone in a trade.

 

[The Old Master]

last year I did my home work and had 8 ya, count them 8 players that surely 1 or 2 would fall to us...…… and you guessed it … not one of them was still there when we picked. this year i'm done. it's not worth the frustration.

 

[Jaded-Fan]

Would our 3rd + 4th land a mid-2nd?

The only assets we have and are realistically likely to trade that could fetch a 1st is one of the goalies but I think if we do deal one it’ll be for a return that provides more immediate help than a 1st. It’d be weird to trade a 1st for Zucker because the window is closing then trade a goalie for a 1st a few months later.

Bjugstad and DeSmith could potentially get us some more late rounders.

I would rather have the third and fourth round picks.

Historically six of ten second rounders fail to have an NHL career.

Seven of ten third rounders, Not much worse. Fourth rounders about the same.

How Many Draft Picks Make It to the NHL?

So having the third and fourth round picks give you better odds.

Granted, the Pens will likely be picking toward the end of the rounds, but that shouldn't make a huge difference.

 

[Peat]

Would our 3rd + 4th land a mid-2nd?

The only assets we have and are realistically likely to trade that could fetch a 1st is one of the goalies but I think if we do deal one it’ll be for a return that provides more immediate help than a 1st. It’d be weird to trade a 1st for Zucker because the window is closing then trade a goalie for a 1st a few months later.

Bjugstad and DeSmith could potentially get us some more late rounders.

Probably not. History suggests that to get a mid-2nd by trading up at the draft with two picks, one of those picks needs to be a 2nd to begin with. Cost Vegas a third just to move up from 48th to 41st last year.

 

[FreeBobbyFarnham]

Probably not. History suggests that to get a mid-2nd by trading up at the draft with two picks, one of those picks needs to be a 2nd to begin with. Cost Vegas a third just to move up from 48th to 41st last year.

Maybe not a mid-2nd, but a late 2nd is definitely possible. We actually acquired the Hallander pick that way.

 

[Peat]

Maybe not a mid-2nd, but a late 2nd is definitely possible. We actually acquired the Hallander pick that way.

That was with Ottawa's 3rd rounder, not ours though. We only moved up 3 or 5 spots iirc - not the 30 or so we'd be talking about using our 3rd rounder.

 

[Paulie Gualtieri]

I would rather have the third and fourth round picks.

Historically six of ten second rounders fail to have an NHL career.

Seven of ten third rounders, Not much worse. Fourth rounders about the same.

How Many Draft Picks Make It to the NHL?

So having the third and fourth round picks give you better odds.

Granted, the Pens will likely be picking toward the end of the rounds, but that shouldn't make a huge difference.

I agree. If I were a GM in the current NHL, I'd never trade up with the help of multiple picks. Never found those trades to be good value. I'd instead look to actively trade down in most situations, to prey on those who do trade up.

An example from last draft, #11 for #14 and #45 (I know we don't have any first rounders, but you get my point).

 

[Jaded-Fan]

I agree. If I were a GM in the current NHL, I'd never trade up with the help of multiple picks. Never found those trades to be good value. I'd instead look to actively trade down in most situations, to prey on those who do trade up.

An example from last draft, #11 for #14 and #45 (I know we don't have any first rounders, but you get my point).

Your example I might disagree with depending on who was there at 11.

I remember being enraged that the Pens passed Forsberg in the year that they traded Staal and the draft was in Pittsburgh. He ended up going I think 12. But most had him much higher. If a top five player drops to 11 you then consider it. Or if you are in the top 5. Historically there is a large drop off from the top five to the next five.

But generally, especially past the first round, you are better with the two picks, third and fourth rounds, rather than some random middle of the round second.