2020 Draft Rankings (pre-WJHC)

Matches Malone

Registered User
Nov 6, 2019
5
4
Not a mock draft, but this seems to be the place for these. Based on a mix of stats and opinion. I've seen every player on the list play at least once, most of the top fifteen I've seen at least three to five times.

1. Alexis Lafreniere LW, QMJHL Rimouski Oceanic - Dating back to 2000, his U19 season ranks 4th in the Q in p/g behind Crosby, Drouin, Crosby. His U18 per game numbers rank 5th behind Crosby, Crosby, Drouin and Pierre-Marc Bouchard.
2. Quinton Byfield C, OHL Sudbury Wolves - Again dating back to 2000, his p/g this year sit 7th by U18s. Every player ahead of him on that list went on to be a superstar in the NHL except Sam Gagner.
3. Alexander Holtz LW/RW Djurgårdens IF - Hockey sense offensively might be his best strength, which has helped him adapt to the pro game relatively quickly. Plays a regular shift on Djurgården's powerplay and often in the top six at even strength. Has seven goals and nine points in the two SuperElit (U20) games. He sometimes tends to hold on to the puck too long looking for the perfect play, but he's a better goal-scorer than passer, and he's at his best offensively away from the puck, where he has an instinct for finding skating routes that open multiple dangerous options.
4. Tim Stützle (shtyootzluh) LW, DEL Adler Manheim - On pace for an historic DEL season. Currently first all-time p/g by a U18, ahead of German hockey legends Hecht, Sturm, Goc. So much fun to watch him pick apart seasoned vets in a high level pro league. Hockey sense, stick skills, passing and vision are elite.
5. Lucas Raymond RW/LW, SHL Frölunda HC - Rare to see a player have as tough a year as Raymond is having and go top five in a strong draft class. Been a tough situation. He looked uninspired in junior - he's been too good for that league for a while. But the combination of Frölunda's depth and his lack of physical strength means he's struggled in SHL. A big WJC would help his case, as would maybe a loan to Allsvenskan for a while. High end speed and skill, but not a guy that's gonna play NHL at 18. Drives the net, battles, makes safe plays, checks - so much about his game will translate to the NHL when he gains the strength.
6. Yaroslav Askarov G, VHL SKA St. Petersburg - Everything you could want in a starting goalie. Big, talented, athletic and unimpeachably clutch. Started the season just ok in VHL, but has been steadily improving his numbers. Played his first KHL game with 2.00 GAA and .920 SVP.
7. Jamie Drysdale RD, OHL Eerie Otters - There's no better defenseman on the breakout in this draft class. And there are few of his calibre at running a powerplay from the point (maybe Andrae, Rafkin, Solovyov).
8. Anton Lundell C/LW, Liga HIFK - His patience and wherewithal with the puck in front of the net is rare. His skating and stick skills aren't elite, but he might be the safest player in the draft to be a 50-60 point-scorer outside of the top two. Keeps things simple, smart, effective. Ranks first on his Liiga team in corsi.
9. Cole Perfetti LW/C, OHL Saginaw Spirit - Immaculate offensive instincts. Not as technically skilled as Stranges or as crafty as Stützle, but he sees things before they happen and makes good plays on split second decisions. Great skater, hard on the puck. Sometimes tries to do too much with the puck and gets himself in trouble, but is often able to skate himself out of danger.
10. Rodion Amirov LW/RW, KHL Salavat Yulaev Ufa - Playing almost ten minutes a night in the KHL. He'll start scoring there eventually, but his style is better suited to the North American game. So good in the corners at protecting the puck, spinning off defenders and making a play to the net. Efficient carrying the puck through the neutral zone, and in the offensive zone he makes safe possession plays. But he's 168 lbs right now, and he'll need to be 195 to maximize his style in the NHL.
11. Marco Rossi C, OHL Ottawa 67s - He often isn't a player who controls play with the puck on his stick. Uses his teammates well, gives and goes to open areas or drives the front of the net. Shows gamebreaking skills in flashes when he does have the puck. He's not an elite skater, but his skating is a strength. Quick and shifty, he's an erratic skater with the puck on his stick. He's also a sound defensive player. Doesn't play small - not particularly strong but he's feisty.
12. Jake Sanderson LD, USNTDP U18 - Looks profoundly calm and in control against NCAA competition up to five, six years older. Badly outmuscled at times, but he is often able to handle himself pretty well down low with good body positioning and momentum. Equally adept skating or passing the puck out of his zone, and he anchors the NTDP's top powerplay.
13. Antonio Stranges LW/C, OHL London Knights - There are some question marks sure, but he honestly seems to believe that he can do anything he wants at this level. He's never not a scoring threat. Not particularly strong, but he's dominant in puck battles in junior due to intelligence, hand quickness and hand-eye coordination. His stick skills, passing, and of course skating all rank among the top of the draft class. Could be a generational player.
14. Connor Zary C, WHL Kamloops Blazers - Looks like one of the faster skaters in the draft; beautiful edges. Should be an excellent defensive center in the NHL with his battle, defensive awareness, and active stick. Offensively, he makes good possession plays and gets to the net with soft hands in tight.
15. Jeremie Poirier LD, QMJHL St. John Sea Dogs - Defensive IQ is still a question mark for me. But he knows how to create offense as effectively as almost anyone in this draft class. So good at breaking down defenses by drawing people in with his stickwork. Ridiculous stick skills for a defenseman. Has trouble on breakouts at times; he's better off skating it than passing it out.
16. Dylan Holloway C, NCAA Wisconsin Badgers - Elite speed, some high end skills, great hockey sense and even some creativity. AJHL to NCAA is a big jump, but it looks like he's starting to find his way.
17. Ty Smilanic LW/C, USNTDP U18 - Smart player, fantastic skater, aggressive forechecker, gifted stickhandler and playmaker.
18. Jean-Luc Foudy C, OHL Windsor Spitfire - One of the best skaters and passers of the draft class. Good at protecting the puck. I'm not entirely sold on his all-around hockey sense, but the upside is tremendous.
19. Braden Schneider RD, WHL Brandon Wheat Kings - Makes a lot of great reads defensively; NHL-callibre timing and decision-making at stepping up in the neutral zone to disrupt the transition. Shows some vision and poise in the offensive zone and on the PP, but I'm not sure about his pro offensive upside. Has some trouble with breakouts at times when under heavy pressure.
20. Vasili Ponomaryov C/LW, QMJHL Shawinigan Cataractes - Got off to a slow start adapting to North American hockey. Watch for a late season push and a monster spring U18 tournament from him. Kid is clutch at those things: two goals, two assists in the semifinal at U17s, a goal and assist in the Gold medal game at Hlinkas. Needs to gain a lot of strength, as he's constantly getting knocked down or off the puck.
21. Noel Gunler RW/LW, SHL Luleå HF - Not much of a puck possession player at the pro level. Like Rossi, he likes to do his work away from the puck, finding openings, give and goes. I was surprised at how effective a defensive player he is though, very disruptive. Sounds like the question marks are related to attitude and consistency of effort.
22. Shakir Mukhamadullin LD, KHL Salavat Yulaev Ufa - Has only played more than five minutes in a game twice so far in the KHL, but it is rare for U18 defensemen to play at all in that league. Was one of just two underaged Russians at U18s last spring. Easily the best defensive player in the draft right now for me. Defensive awareness, positioning and timing are elite. There is a lot of controversy around his ability to play the puck, but I'm of the opinion that he's just trying to be safe since he's always playing above his age group. The way he just flips the puck out of the zone into an open area will translate well to the NHL, but I'd like to see him hold on to the puck a little longer on the breakout looking for a play.
23. Jan Mysak (meezshock) LW, ExtraLiga HC Litvinov - Plays on one of the worst teams in Extraliga and in his second season he's still not an impact player in that league, but he sees regular duty on the powerplay and looks good there. He's still always top of his age group for the Czechs in international competition.
24. Dawson Mercer C/RW, QMJHL Drummondville Voltigeurs - Has a good variety of offensive tools, particularly in the goal-scoring department.
25. Jacob Perreault RW/C, OHL Sarnia Sting - Smart player with some offensive tools. One of the best shots in the draft class.
26. Justin Barron RD, QMJHL Halifax Mooseheads - A strong two-way defender with some offensive upside.
27. Helge Grans RD, SuperElit/SHL Malmö Redhawks - Another defenseman who is excellent on the breakout. Big body, good defender and penalty killer. He might be an asset to an NHL powerplay someday as he is adept at controlling the line and keeping the puck in.
28. John-Jason Peterka LW/RW, DEL EHC München - Extraordinary skillset, and he's not afraid to make plays despite playing on the fourth line against high level pros.
29. Kaiden Guhle LD, WHL Prince Albert Raiders - NHL teams will like the combination of talent, size and skating, but he's a bit of a project. Makes some questionable decisions. Not particularly strong on the puck or his feet for a 6'3 guy. Has a lot of filling out to do.
30. Mavrik Bourque C, QMJHL Shawinigan Cataractes - Currently has 13 points more than his next highest scoring teammate. Does a lot of things well, but just 5'10 and the question is will his skating be good enough to compensate for the lack of size.
31. Luke Tuch LW, USNTDP U18 - Not as big as his brother right now, but he already looks powerful against college competition. Excellent at protecting the puck. Very clever offensive player who beats defenders not so much with his hands or speed but with his head.
 
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5cotland

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Jan 23, 2015
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I need Rossi to calm down. Would love him on NYR but we dont suck enough to get top 5 pick (excl. lottery) and his current form will push him top 5.
 
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Matches Malone

Registered User
Nov 6, 2019
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Thats really low for Rossi

That's a fair criticism. I had him 16th going into the season. He's been steadily climbing, but the problem is I just haven't seen him play enough. Most of the prospects in my top ten I've seen a lot - U17s, U18s, Hlinkas, etc. Rossi has been a relatively new commodity for me and I don't want to just shoot him up the rankings based on stats and hype. I'll watch him more this season and adjust accordingly.
 
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emptyNedder

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I don't want to just shoot him up the rankings based on stats and hype.

I agree with evaluating based on more than stats—but the fact is that if Rossi continues to produce at his current pace (2.36 ppg), it will be the third best OHL draft season this century behind McDavid and Kane.
Sam Gagner is next on the ppg list, but he was third on his team in points. Rossi is definitely the one driving Ottawa.
 

Matches Malone

Registered User
Nov 6, 2019
5
4
I need Rossi to calm down. Would love him on NYR but we dont suck enough to get top 5 pick (excl. lottery) and his current form will push him top 5.

I'm gonna bet the Rangers get a hell of a player this year whether it is Rossi or not. The top ten or so in this draft is loaded. Honestly, I would be surprised to see Rossi get into the top five, but I can't deny that despite the immense talent there are weaknesses and question marks shot through the top five - whether it's Raymond's size and strength, ot Stützle's finish, or Holtz' all-round game, etc.

There's a lot to love about Rossi, from his all-around skating ability, his defensive awareness, his playmaking to his tenacity. Right now, after World Juniors I have the first tier as Lafreniere, the second tier is Byfield, Drysdale, Raymond, Holtz, Stützle, Lundell; and then Perfetti, Askarov, Rossi, Amirov are on the fringe of the next tier.
 

MasterMatt25

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If I could say one thing about Rossi, he currently has 9 more points than Byfield despite playing 2 less games. That's incredible
 

Matches Malone

Registered User
Nov 6, 2019
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I agree with evaluating based on more than stats—but the fact is that if Rossi continues to produce at his current pace (2.36 ppg), it will be the third best OHL draft season this century behind McDavid and Kane.
Sam Gagner is next on the ppg list, but he was third on his team in points. Rossi is definitely the one driving Ottawa.

Cole Caufield had the most ever goals per game in a season for the USNTDP U17 and U18 teams (min 10 games) at the appropriate age. In his draft year he had the highest goals per game of the century by a U18 in the USHL. And he tied Alex Ovechkin's record for goals at the U18s tournament. He fell to 15th overall.

Of course I take stats seriously in assessing prospects, but they don't tell the whole story, no matter how superlative they may be. Considering the growing hype around Rossi (not to mention Jack Quinn), I'll be sure to catch at least a couple more 67s games this season.
 

emptyNedder

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Cole Caufield had the most ever goals per game in a season for the USNTDP U17 and U18 teams (min 10 games) at the appropriate age. In his draft year he had the highest goals per game of the century by a U18 in the USHL. And he tied Alex Ovechkin's record for goals at the U18s tournament. He fell to 15th overall.

Again we agree that basic stats don't tell the entire story. But the comparison to Caufield actually misses the complementary stat story as much, if not more than, the eyeball test. Caufield was on one of the most dominant and high-scoring teams ever. His ppg was third on that team. That makes Caufield more like Sam Gagner than Rossi.

Last year there was a reasonable argument that Rossi's stats were dependent on teammates. This year his historic season appears to be of his own making. Statistics need to be understood in context.
 

Matches Malone

Registered User
Nov 6, 2019
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Again we agree that basic stats don't tell the entire story. But the comparison to Caufield actually misses the complementary stat story as much, if not more than, the eyeball test. Caufield was on one of the most dominant and high-scoring teams ever. His ppg was third on that team. That makes Caufield more like Sam Gagner than Rossi.

Last year there was a reasonable argument that Rossi's stats were dependent on teammates. This year his historic season appears to be of his own making. Statistics need to be understood in context.

The problem I'm having with your approach is the apparent extremity or binary nature of your interpretation of the context. Caufield played for this super team so he should be discounted entirely as a precedent, while Rossi doesn't have elite NHL prospects for teammates so he's pretty much on his own? I'm sure that's not what you're saying, but you didn't provide any quantitative assessment of the qualitative data you presented.

You're being disingenuous about Rossi's lack of support. Sure he doesn't have 17 year old Hughes, Zegras, Turcotte, etc, but he's 18 and the other three top scorers on his team consist of two over-age forwards who had 80+ points last year and an over-age defenseman with 60+ points last year. I'm sure you're aware that it is not uncommon for merely good junior players to be dominant as over-agers.

Led by this group, the 67s are currently in the midst of a 16 game winning streak, they're now leading the OHL with a .829 win percentage, they're the highest scoring team in the OHL by a half a goal a game, they have a goal differential of +76 (the next best in the league is +35), and they're currently on pace to finish three wins shy of the OHL record.

Rossi's and the 67's situation reminds me a little bit of the Swift Current Broncos a couple years ago: two older players who may not have been great prospects but were stars in junior, and an 18 year old second year import, ran roughshod on the WHL, all scoring 100+ points.

His junior team may not be loaded with NHL drafted prospects, but Rossi still has an exceptional supporting cast.
 
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