Salary Cap: 2020-21 Salary Cap

[wintersej]

Underrated priority this summer is to extend Rask IMO... 3/24

maybe. Or you can give him his extension after expansion draft and be able to protect Vladar instead.

 

[BadBruins]

I guess youd have to do some research on all this stuff works... when guys dont have access to arbitration its a bit different then when they do... when theres ufa years being bought its a bit different. when teams want to maintain good relations with a player its a bit different... and so on and so forth

debrusk comes from a hockey family the same way nylander did... that can definitely play a role. having a father get involved who might have felt short shifted in his own career can make a difference

lots of different factors at play

but players never want to go to the lowest common denominator. when an elc failed to establish themselves as a regular for 2 seasons and then had just 1 single good season their bargaining position is crap and they might have to take a bridge. long term deals arent an option for 1 year wonders

but when a player has been a second line 40 plus point guy for 3 years in a roll he is well established and a prime candidate for long term deal.

debrusk can insist on a 1 year deal and then go to arbitration and then leave town. he isnt going to be forced to take crap. if we try to force him to take crap he will be like josh Anderson or nick Ritchie who got hardball negotiations and are now either on other teams or are seeing their careers turn to crap and about to be dealt

examples of taking players to arbitration or forcing them to take 1 year deals really doesnt work out well.

you are invited to find me a list of names where this very dumb idea you are promoting has paid off with a happy relationship between player and team.

finding examples is always a good thing

but try to find better examples than comparing 80 point elc guys with 1 real season as a regular to a guy with 120 points plus and going on 3 full seasons of established value now

Mantha had 150 games and two full seasons as a top-6 regular. Vrana had 173 games and two full seasons as a regular (including a role as a regular on a Stanley Cup winning team). Both of these players were established and highly thought of within their own organization and around the league....

I think you have major flaws in your logic. Pastrnak after 3 seasons of established value had 123 points.... DeBrusk is at 120 and counting... NHL executives and agents aren't that simple. Age, career, current performance, projected performance, and injury history all come into play. Among other things.

It's a contract negotiation. Yes, there are a lot of variables. Of course the player and agent will always push for the most years of guaranteed money and whatever gets them to unrestricted free agency sooner. Just like the Bruins will likely want to limit risk and maximize value. I'm not sure he's reached the level where you are comfortable projecting his future contributions beyond what they are now, so I suspect the Bruins will attempt to keep the term in the 2-3 year range. Just a guess. That's not being hardballed. That isn't being "forced to take crap".

Another example. Sam Reinhart RW. Signed after three full seasons of 42 points, 47 points, and 50 points. 2 Years x 3.65M.

 

[BadBruins]

you are invited to find me a list of names where this very dumb idea you are promoting has paid off with a happy relationship between player and team.

I suggested 2-3 year deals in the post you quoted. The list is very long. Huberdeau, Kucherov, Giroux, Schwartz, Kreider, Backlund. Even just looking at this teams contract history you see Marchand's post ELC contract was 2 years. Krejci's was 3 years. I'm sure I could go on. Every situation is different. No comparable is perfect, but there is a long history of agents and teams finalizing negotiations with a bridge deal and it working out for both sides. It's not always 5-8 years out of the gate.

 

[Alberta_OReilly_Fan]

Mantha had 150 games and two full seasons as a top-6 regular. Vrana had 173 games and two full seasons as a regular (including a role as a regular on a Stanley Cup winning team). Both of these players were established and highly thought of within their own organization and around the league....

I think you have major flaws in your logic. Pastrnak after 3 seasons of established value had 123 points.... DeBrusk is at 120 and counting... NHL executives and agents aren't that simple. Age, career, current performance, projected performance, and injury history all come into play. Among other things.

It's a contract negotiation. Yes, there are a lot of variables. Of course the player and agent will always push for the most years of guaranteed money and whatever gets them to unrestricted free agency sooner. Just like the Bruins will likely want to limit risk and maximize value. I'm not sure he's reached the level where you are comfortable projecting his future contributions beyond what they are now, so I suspect the Bruins will attempt to keep the term in the 2-3 year range. Just a guess. That's not being hardballed. That isn't being "forced to take crap".

Another example. Sam Reinhart RW. Signed after three full seasons of 42 points, 47 points, and 50 points. 2 Years x 3.65M.

an nhl gm might or might not be so simple

on the other hand im sure you will say that this example and that example are just 'bad contracts' and as we keep throwing out more examples you will continue to say, those are just bad contracts. david backes was a bad contract. matt belesky was a bad contract. erik karlsson is overpaid. ryan johanson and kyle turris are just bad contracts. Christian ehrohoff and ville leino were just bad contracts.. etc etc

its always just a bad contract and the player is overpaid whenever any player gets more money that we as fans think they should... or is that right? maybe its just the market place.

im not saying the market place is right. in fact I say the opposite. I fully believe the next cba will end up being a mess because of the outrageous nature of second term contracts being so grossly overpaid

but then you also miss a basic point in your whole premise.

even if some miricle we can say nhl gms and other hockey people are more reasonable when handing out contracts... we cant say the same thing about arbitration and arbitrators

in fact arbitrators are not allowed to be reasonable. they make their awards based on raw numbers and they have a few criteria they are allowed to consider. its all math

if players get hardball tactics from their teams... an adversary situation does develop. if that happens... the players and their skillful agents do go to arbitration if arbitration will work in their favor

at that point jake debrusk will become a second line guy with a 27 goal season and averaging over 20 goals a year... with good pedigree... over 200 games as a regular in his elc contract.. over 120 points... and the arbitrator will look to see who else can match those numbers and what they get paid

none of your examples do match these numbers. the ones I have mentioned who match {and ive come up with over 10 now... thats enough to establish a pattern} get 6 million on long term deals when the cap was in the 70's

the best policy for bruins... keep jake happy. pay him market value if hes a keeper. trade him if we feel hes not worth market value.

trying to lowball players doesnt work out well

 

[DaStinger]

Taylor Hall!

Ugh... I keep hearing his name. I never want him on the Bs.

 

[Alberta_OReilly_Fan]

one scary thing that I dont think has been mentioned by anyone... certainly not something I mentioned

they are now saying the cap might go up this year as a favor to cash strapped gms… but... it might not go up again for a few years to fix this escrow issue the players are fed up with

so yes... we all get a 1 time unexpected cap ceiling bump...

but then they are saying it could be a couple years or more with a cap ceiling freeze

so... we do have to figure out how to fit all the moving pieces. if we spend every single penny this year and do long term deals... then will we afford rask/McAvoy/carlo in a couple years? will we have problems with pastrnaks next deal?

luckily boston pays evan gold to worry about this and today I dont have to so i wont...

but before we go throwing large money at marginal second line talent we should tread carefully

 

[UConn126]

Ugh... I keep hearing his name. I never want him on the Bs.

I used to want him, even going back to his draft year. I had hoped the Oilers may go off the board and take Seguin at 1 so Hall could go to the Bruins at 2. I thought he was the perfect Bruin.

Fast forward, now that we've seen his career play out. He is 100% injury prone. That is a fact. My opinion (not a fact but rooted in empirical evidence) is that Hall is a loser. Guy has played on exclusively bad teams. Just look at Arizona. They were starting hot, they trade for Hall, team goes to crap.

Some stupid team is going to lock way to much cap space up with that guy, and I hope it is not the Bruins.

 

[BAD BOY]

I used to want him, even going back to his draft year. I had hoped the Oilers may go off the board and take Seguin at 1 so Hall could go to the Bruins at 2. I thought he was the perfect Bruin.

Fast forward, now that we've seen his career play out. He is 100% injury prone. That is a fact. My opinion (not a fact but rooted in empirical evidence) is that Hall is a loser. Guy has played on exclusively bad teams. Just look at Arizona. They were starting hot, they trade for Hall, team goes to crap.

Some stupid team is going to lock way to much cap space up with that guy, and I hope it is not the Bruins.

I agree. No way on Hall. He’s still a good player. But I’ll pass and I hope they do too. I have nothing against the player but I would prefer they go in another route. IMO. If Kase can get going I think I like the team the way it is . With Krug taking a little less money which I know is doubtful. But time will tell on that whole picture.

 

[Jean_Jacket41]

No worries about the Cap.

Just like there was no panic level in that fabulous irrational thread.

The only question I have right now is « do the Bruins have enough space under the Cap this year to fit in Chara bonuses or will it get pushed to next year Cap? »

Either way Bruins in a great shape Cap wise and likely again a top Cup contender next year.

Meanwhile, in irrelevant land: 1993 Forever!

 

[Carlon Brando]

going to do a complete breakdown of next year's roster... look at our unsigned players and do a quick comparison to the market to see what they will be asking for/offered... and see just where we sit thanks to the sweenius of our gm and the wizzardy of mr evan gold.

lets start with our currently projected 2020-21 lineup

LW
----
Brad Marchand 6,125,000
Nick Ritchie 1,498,925
Jake Debrusk ?
Par Lindholm 850,000
C
---
Patrice Bergeron 6,875,000
David Krejci 7,250,000
Charlie Coyle 5,250,000
Sean Kuraly 1,275,000
RW
----
David Patrnak 6,666,666
Ondrej Kase 2,600,000
Anders Bjork ?
Karson Kuhlman ?
Chris Wagner 1,350,000
D
---
Torey Krug ?
Charlie McAvoy 4,900,000
Matt Grzelyck ?
Brandon Carlo 2,850,000
John Moore 2,750,000
Zdeno Chara ?
Connor Clifton 1,000,000
Jeremy Lauzon 850,000
G
--
Tuuka Rask 7,000,000
Jaroslav Halak ?
Retained Salary
1.500,000

giving us a Total {before potential carryover penalties}
61,290,591
for
10 forwards
5 dmen
1 goalie all signed
----------------------------------------------
so lets call the cap 84 million for argument's sake... and let's say whatever cap penalty we suffer from the chara contract balances out with whatever the real cap might be above and beyond 84 million.

this will leave us 22.7 million to get our 7 open roster spots filled.

now lets figure out if we can afford our 7 known freeagents… would this be enough to give Torey Krug 8 mill a year?

There are currently only 7 dmen in the nhl that make 8 million or more. Does Krug compare? Erik Karlsson averages around 25 mins a night... hes a number 1. Drew Doughty averages 26 mins... hes a number 1. PK Subban averages 24 mins... hes a number 1. Oliver Ekman Larsson averages 23 1/2... hes a number 1... Jacob Trouba near 23 mins... hes a number 1. John Carlson is over 23 mins... hes anumber 1 and finally Brent Burns has been over 25 mins a night since converting to defense... hes a number 1.

Torey Krug averages a hair over 20 mins because he cant be a number 1. he cant do defensive zone starts against a scoring line. he cant PK. It's almost impossible to defend the idea that he would get 8 million as he turns 29 and is almost guaranteed to be in decline within a couple years. I actually think its a bit ridiculous to imagine anyone giving krug 8 on a long term deal. 6.5 though could make a lot of sense on a longer deal... and maybe go up to 7.5 per year to try to convince him to accept a 4 year deal ?

will we have enough to give jake debrusk 5.5 mill a year? debrusk now has 120 points in 200 career games.

Bradon Saad had 126 points in 208 games when he got 6 mill way back in 2015
Timo Meir had 108 points 193 games... he got 6 mill
william nylander had 135 points in 184 games and got almost 7 million

its a raw numbers game for scoring second line wingers and debrusks numbers say 5.5 mill is the lower end of what he will be getting

anders bjork and karson kuhlman will be 2 of the easier guys to figure. Neither has established himself as a full time player above the 3rd line. Both will get their qualifers and possibly a small little extra bonus... slot them in at 1.1 mill and we will be fine

Zdeno Chara... he's interesting. I think ultimately he lets the team tell him what we can afford this year. He isnt hanging around for every nickle and penny he can get his hands on. He wants to play on a winner and he will want this team to stay intact. I will put him down as a 2 mill cap hit in this little exercise.

Matt Grzelyck... is an 18 min per night, undersized guy with 52 points in 194 games... that isnt going to end up helping him much at an arbitration hearing. he is arbitration eligible. Brandon Carlo only got 2.85 mill so figure less than that. Matt Benning in edmonton got 1.9 mill so figure more than that. If we are trying to keep Grzelyck happy lets call it 2.5 mill

finally we got jaroslav halak. James Reimer and Tomas Griess are the highest paid backups in the nhl at around 3.4 mill. We can boost Halak up here even at his age

so we have my estimates for new deals {I will add suggested years too}
7.5 krug {4 year deal}
5.5 debrusk {4 year deal... lets him become an ufa at age 28 so he takes a bit less}
1.1 Kuhlman {2 year deal}
1.1 Bjork {2 year deal}
2.5 Grzelyck {2 year deal}
2 Chara {1 year deal possibly with bonuses}
3.4 Halak {2 year deal}
------------------------
23.1 mill for the new contracts

it puts us just slightly over the 22.7 mill we project to have.

if we trade john moore and give his spot to jacob zboril or zach senyshyn {both of whom are at risk to lose on waivers... our cap will work}

we actually can keep all of our free agents. we actually were able to afford the retention on backes. this is one time dom and a few others here were telling me not to worry... and damn if sweeney and evan gold arent on the cupse of pulling this off.

thanks to an unexpected boost in next year's cap... and a couple wise target trades to bring in established nhl talents on very good contracts... its looking damn good

I love reading your cap projections and salary comparables. My first impression was that DeBrusk's number seems high and Grzelcyk's seems low, but your track record would indicate that you're probably pretty spot on with all of these figures.

 

[Alberta_OReilly_Fan]

I love reading your cap projections and salary comparables. My first impression was that DeBrusk's number seems high and Grzelcyk's seems low, but your track record would indicate that you're probably pretty spot on with all of these figures.

I normally have been wrong by going low in past years. eventually I came up with a formula just figure out a number I thought a guy deserved and add 25%

that ended up being much more accurate than I would have wished

to be honest I dont really begrudge players their money... they are legally entitled to 50% of hrr after all. and lord only knows those baseball and basketball guys make way more than nhl players.

where my biggest personal problem comes in... players get so upset about escrow and its going to build and build as a greater problem until its solved.

now escrow isnt really a problem at all... as long as it gets returned to players at the end of the year. its really just a slush fund that is used to balance out 50% hrr. the only time escrow will be a problem is when the teams have awarded contracts thare are far greater than 50% hrr

so when we hear the players are losing 10% or 15% of their contracts to escrow what it really means is that the typical contract is actually 10-15% too high

I dont begrude the superstars their paychecks... my theory is if you sell merchandise and put butts in the seat you should be paid

and I also know the typical career of a 4th liner is 2 years or less... after years and years and years of sacrifice... so if they are getting 700k fine... thats fine with me... they deserve a payday for making the show

in my opinion personally... that leaves guys like debrusk and grzelyck as the exact type of guys I think are horribly overpaid. id I was king of the world these are the guys id cut. theres no reason someone like brandon saed needs to be earning 30 million on a 5 year contract. dude is a 20 goal-45 point guy who seems lazy half his shifts. I can easily see debrusk having a career very similar to saed and being horribly overpaid

I wish debrusk brought more intensity on a more consistent basis

as for grze… sure hes a nice little bottom pair dman... and hes slick... but at the end of the day do we trust moving him up to a top 4 role? would we be ok having him defend against kucherov or Matthews or Ovechkin in these playoffs? do we think he can qb the pp if we let krug go?

it was the guy in Detroit that used to tell everyone you cant overpay a defensive dman or you will destroy your budget.

agents only keep their careers if they get a good market price for their candidates. so agents are always going to fight for every dollar. and the nhlpa knows that bad contracts {for the player} could haunt them in future arbitration hearings... so the nhlpa will do its best to preasure players into not taking any hometown discounts

some players will end up taking less for security... but that usually involves ntc/NMC... and debrusk and grze are a little young for that

the smart money says bruins wont want to go to arbitration. in recent years almost all arbitration deals get settled before the hearing. its a losing sum zero battle for teams to piss off players that they want to buy into team loyalty and go to war for the team

I think... the team will want to long term debrusk... so I am predicting his number high. in recent history the deals that become bargains are when you gamble on a second tier player and then he improves and suddenly you got a first liner making second liner money.

if debrusk character and his dedication are viewed as high by the team... I do see a long term deal.

but his lack of consistency scares the beejesus out of me

I know some other fans have been throwing out examples of some players getting low contracts or what is value contracts and saying that should be the comparable... but I do think it will be interesting to see if those players stay with their current team without a huge overpayment at some point down the road.

like subban as an example... he got lowballed by montreal. everyone applauded. then he got a new contract and he took montreal for every penny it had. there was absolutely no hint of a home town discount at all. and even then... the blood was too bad to be fixed.

you get a player like Bergeron here in boston… coming out of his elc we gave him the top end of the market place on his second deal... he got rick nash type money. and when it came time to sign another new deal he gave us a sweetheart deal that became the model for how we would build this contending team we have to this day

theres exceptions to every rule... that san jose kid took a 1 year million dollar deal this year... I didnt see that coming. a few elc kids took short deals at below market with their final year jacked to the roof so that their qualifier will be a guaranteed overpayment

sometimes you get idiots like the owner in jersey with that kovalchuk deal

or you get players that refuse to move teams and have no bargaining power like doan in arizona

you can find guys like the people in Detroit who just want to be part of a winner and took all those low deals there
or buddies like Roberts and niewendyke who signed bargain contracts if teams took them as a pair

there was that famous kariya selanne deal with Colorado where they wanted to load up a cup winner and took a huge discount

there was a case of Curtis glencross in Calgary who helped the flames out with a hometown discount with a handshake promise theyd take care of him on his next deal... then the flames hired now management and glencross career went in the toilet... suddenly he was being dealt with a lot of bad taste in the mouth

theres sometimes complications for sure that go into all this and we could be out by a lot in our predictions.

I was happy when McAvoy and carlo signed for less than my predictions this past year... but chara got a lot more than I predicted McAvoy qualifier is 7.3 in year 4 so hes guaranteed 22 million over 4 years. he will get close to the 6 I was predicting even though he helped the team some on the average cap hit these next 3 seasons. carlos qualifier is 3.5 he will get his average well over 3... its tough to really find many cases of guys who score as little as carlo who ever got more than that though

anyhow... its all something that they pay people huge contracts to figure out... and I get paid nothing. so if they can find a way to fix all the issues than great

in the meantime expect a lot of fans to continue to post what horrible contracts are being agreed to every summer because most of them will seem way too high

 

[Alberta_OReilly_Fan]

No worries about the Cap.

Just like there was no panic level in that fabulous irrational thread.

The only question I have right now is « do the Bruins have enough space under the Cap this year to fit in Chara bonuses or will it get pushed to next year Cap? »

Either way Bruins in a great shape Cap wise and likely again a top Cup contender next year.

Meanwhile, in irrelevant land: 1993 Forever!

team is carrying like 25 contracts today if I see capfriendly correctly... along with the kevan miller ltir

says we are projected to have around 500k in cap space

that wont be enough to absorb the chara bonus

we need to get our number of contracts on the roster down if we can... but there aint a hell of a lot of wiggle room

I think only lauzon and kuhlman are eligible for ahl without having to clear waivers.

 

[DominicT]

one scary thing that I dont think has been mentioned by anyone... certainly not something I mentioned

they are now saying the cap might go up this year as a favor to cash strapped gms… but... it might not go up again for a few years to fix this escrow issue the players are fed up with

so yes... we all get a 1 time unexpected cap ceiling bump...

but then they are saying it could be a couple years or more with a cap ceiling freeze

so... we do have to figure out how to fit all the moving pieces. if we spend every single penny this year and do long term deals... then will we afford rask/McAvoy/carlo in a couple years? will we have problems with pastrnaks next deal?

luckily boston pays evan gold to worry about this and today I dont have to so i wont...

but before we go throwing large money at marginal second line talent we should tread carefully

I'm not sure who is saying that, but that's not how it works. They are in negotiations with the NHLPA as I type about next years cap. The League just can't fix a number without the NHLPA because things like the escalator is controlled by the NHLPA and only the NHLPA. The league comes up with a number based on revenue, the NHLPA examines the books and then says "hey Gary, we are going to invoke the escalator at 4%."

However, what the league is proposing is that the NHLPA invoke the full 5% escalator and to keep escrow down, they will use the same cap number the following season. So the cap will be the same for two consecutive seasons and no more. In 2022 they will do the same and the cap will remain the same for 2022/23 and 2023/24. That is what is on the table.

The cap is not going away. The 50-50 split is not going away. Therefore, escrow can not possibly go away because it is the only way of guaranteeing the even split. Players need to understand that and the NHLPA goes to great lengths trying to explain how it works and how it benefits their membership.

 

[Alberta_OReilly_Fan]

I'm not sure who is saying that, but that's not how it works. They are in negotiations with the NHLPA as I type about next years cap. The League just can't fix a number without the NHLPA because things like the escalator is controlled by the NHLPA and only the NHLPA. The league comes up with a number based on revenue, the NHLPA examines the books and then says "hey Gary, we are going to invoke the escalator at 4%."

However, what the league is proposing is that the NHLPA invoke the full 5% escalator and to keep escrow down, they will use the same cap number the following season. So the cap will be the same for two consecutive seasons and no more. In 2022 they will do the same and the cap will remain the same for 2022/23 and 2023/24. That is what is on the table.

The cap is not going away. The 50-50 split is not going away. Therefore, escrow can not possibly go away because it is the only way of guaranteeing the even split. Players need to understand that and the NHLPA goes to great lengths trying to explain how it works and how it benefits their membership.

I guess we are saying the same thing dom but thanks for making it easer to understand

ive heard a few different things now... that maybe we wont start doing multi-year caps for a couple more seasons? I had origionally heard that to keep the union happy they simply wouldnt up the cap this year.

I guess we all heard they werent going to up it this year... due to the players beef

so when I ay... it looks like a favor to the gm's/clubs im sort of reading between the lines. the players certainly didnt want more escrow loses.

and of course escrow can never go away in a 50/50 split. there has to be a way to balance the books. but no one is actually saying make escrow go away. what they ARE saying is... 'give us our damn escrow account back into our pockets at the end of the year'

the only way the players with PRE-EXISTING NEGOTIATED CONTRACTS will ever get their fully bargained compensation is if... the cap can be calculated much more correctly

the cap was a compromise between rich teams and poor teams to promote competition and profitability for the teams. and I think the owners have been very pleased by it. I have a suspicion that the Toronto market is going to freak about how its effecting them. they are after all, the richest team. they got the most to lose if they get handcuffed. I might even suspect this unexpected bump in this year's cap might be a direct result of some pressure they are putting behind the scenes.

ive been predicting for a couple years now... the rich markets will not be happy if the cap suddenly freezes.

its a bit genius though... what everyone is talking about now... telling these owners that they will get a 2-3 year locked cap to 'budget' in.

when the cap was always an unknown in the future... its easy for gm's to say we made a mistake. we thought the game was growing. now we are being punished

but if the cap will be known... these gms lose their right to bitch and moan.

I like it.
I think its very brilliant

I am surprised the cap is going up this year. every little news bite I heard for the past year and more indicated it wouldnt be going up. I think this means that there was some backroom preasures because usually news of this sort doesnt come out completely unexpected

there was no prediction of a cap back at the winter meetings. I think this shows that politics were taking place and no one actually knew what would result

I can only guess what is going on over at the nhlpa. I know most the rumblings Ive heard say players not only are pissed at escrow but they dont even really understand it. I hear a recent ex player like Anthony stewart try talking about it and he either misspeaks or just doesnt get it.

ultimately at the end of the day... I saw a lot of trouble brewing
after this last week of news leaks I see a lot less trouble brewing

I for one applaude whoever is pushing this agenda. I know I couldnt have done it better myself

and as a bruin fan im very selfishly pleased because we were in very tight on the cap next year

a couple extra mill will let us slide in I think just fine
go bruins go

 

[DominicT]

I guess we are saying the same thing dom but thanks for making it easer to understand

ive heard a few different things now... that maybe we wont start doing multi-year caps for a couple more seasons? I had origionally heard that to keep the union happy they simply wouldnt up the cap this year.

I guess we all heard they werent going to up it this year... due to the players beef

so when I ay... it looks like a favor to the gm's/clubs im sort of reading between the lines. the players certainly didnt want more escrow loses.

and of course escrow can never go away in a 50/50 split. there has to be a way to balance the books. but no one is actually saying make escrow go away. what they ARE saying is... 'give us our damn escrow account back into our pockets at the end of the year'

the only way the players with PRE-EXISTING NEGOTIATED CONTRACTS will ever get their fully bargained compensation is if... the cap can be calculated much more correctly

the cap was a compromise between rich teams and poor teams to promote competition and profitability for the teams. and I think the owners have been very pleased by it. I have a suspicion that the Toronto market is going to freak about how its effecting them. they are after all, the richest team. they got the most to lose if they get handcuffed. I might even suspect this unexpected bump in this year's cap might be a direct result of some pressure they are putting behind the scenes.

ive been predicting for a couple years now... the rich markets will not be happy if the cap suddenly freezes.

its a bit genius though... what everyone is talking about now... telling these owners that they will get a 2-3 year locked cap to 'budget' in.

when the cap was always an unknown in the future... its easy for gm's to say we made a mistake. we thought the game was growing. now we are being punished

but if the cap will be known... these gms lose their right to bitch and moan.

I like it.
I think its very brilliant

I am surprised the cap is going up this year. every little news bite I heard for the past year and more indicated it wouldnt be going up. I think this means that there was some backroom preasures because usually news of this sort doesnt come out completely unexpected

there was no prediction of a cap back at the winter meetings. I think this shows that politics were taking place and no one actually knew what would result

I can only guess what is going on over at the nhlpa. I know most the rumblings Ive heard say players not only are pissed at escrow but they dont even really understand it. I hear a recent ex player like Anthony stewart try talking about it and he either misspeaks or just doesnt get it.

ultimately at the end of the day... I saw a lot of trouble brewing
after this last week of news leaks I see a lot less trouble brewing

I for one applaude whoever is pushing this agenda. I know I couldnt have done it better myself

and as a bruin fan im very selfishly pleased because we were in very tight on the cap next year

a couple extra mill will let us slide in I think just fine
go bruins go

The NHLPA will always push their membership to vote for the escalator because it drives up contracts.

Only once since the cap came into effect has the escalator not been used and then it was the players voting against their own union.

The NHLPA has more control over the salary cap then the league does, simply because of the escalator. The NHL basically has no control as it is 50% of HRR - something they can't control

Put it in other terms: IF revenues this season showed there should be no increase to the current cap of $81.5 million, the NHLPA can still raise it by 5% to $85.575 million. The NHL can't. It is their collectively bargained right to do so.

As for trouble you saw brewing: I never saw it. Simply put, I believe the man they have in place to figure it all out is the best in the business and he will always figure it out.

 

[Alberta_OReilly_Fan]

The NHLPA will always push their membership to vote for the escalator because it drives up contracts.

Only once since the cap came into effect has the escalator not been used and then it was the players voting against their own union.

The NHLPA has more control over the salary cap then the league does, simply because of the escalator. The NHL basically has no control as it is 50% of HRR - something they can't control

Put it in other terms: IF revenues this season showed there should be no increase to the current cap of $81.5 million, the NHLPA can still raise it by 5% to $85.575 million. The NHL can't. It is their collectively bargained right to do so.

As for trouble you saw brewing: I never saw it. Simply put, I believe the man they have in place to figure it all out is the best in the business and he will always figure it out.

not sure you agree with me... but I think eventually we will see the 2 extremes ceiling and floor tightened a bit... they put this system in place expecting more teams would spend to the middle

but that ceiling has served as a magnet. the true reason that escrow became a problem is that too many teams spent above the median

since there is a finite pie... 50%hrr... there needs to be a better distributed % of teams spending high and low in order to be a long term fix to the escrow question

of course... putting a ceiling onto the rich teams and dropping that ceiling is going to be a sore sticking point

I think you can probably smooth the waters over by putting more controls onto second term contracts. so thats where I personally see the ultimate fix to this problem

 

[DominicT]

not sure you agree with me... but I think eventually we will see the 2 extremes ceiling and floor tightened a bit... they put this system in place expecting more teams would spend to the middle

but that ceiling has served as a magnet. the true reason that escrow became a problem is that too many teams spent above the median

since there is a finite pie... 50%hrr... there needs to be a better distributed % of teams spending high and low in order to be a long term fix to the escrow question

of course... putting a ceiling onto the rich teams and dropping that ceiling is going to be a sore sticking point

I think you can probably smooth the waters over by putting more controls onto second term contracts. so thats where I personally see the ultimate fix to this problem

All the hard work implementing a cap system is done and over with. It resulted in lockouts. Now that the heavy lifting is done, there will be some tweaking and that's about it.

Owners are very happy and for the most part, players are as well - with the exception of escrow. The league is working with the union to relieve some of that burden caused by it.

I don't expect to see any major changes to the cap/cba.

 

[Alberta_OReilly_Fan]

All the hard work implementing a cap system is done and over with. It resulted in lockouts. Now that the heavy lifting is done, there will be some tweaking and that's about it.

Owners are very happy and for the most part, players are as well - with the exception of escrow. The league is working with the union to relieve some of that burden caused by it.

I don't expect to see any major changes to the cap/cba.

Darren dreger with some very good argument on todays 1st hour of leafs lunch

says agents hes talking to basically seriously doubt the 84 mill league projection... and they didnt believe it even before the corno virus threatened to start emptying buildings

obviously... the cap is being predicted far too generously to begin with... the escrow is killing players with previously negotiated contracts. they are losing money so that teams can continue to overpay brand new contracts under this artificial cap ceiling

but... it was happening under the very optomin projections. everything had to be perfect to get to these cap numbers {and it never was... the players always ended up having to cover 100s of millions of dollars in overspending}

now if suddenly buildings will be empty... we might see league revenues drop by some obscene number over the next 12 months. losing the arena crowds would cost each team well in excess of 41 million... a league wide loss of a paid arena audience would be over 1 billion dollars

right now... the propaganda has been... relax... theres gambling money coming... the new media deal will be much better than the last one... expansion will pump untold millions in new merchandise sales

so... the players have been more quiet with their unhappiness... but there are very important issues just under the surface that could become an issue

will it result in early re-opening of the current cba? I havent heard it... most sources that are close to the inner circle have been towing the party line and predicting it will all go well

obviously if the league is negotiating new media deals and partnerships with large gambing operations... a picture of peace and control is so important

the arena building that fueled most the growth in hrr the past 15 years is pretty much done... theres almost no market that is still planning a new arena... the novelty of arena games seems to be a golden goose at the edge of slaughter. theres quite a lot of fan exhaustion with the concept. theres obviously pushback with the idea of expanding into Europe... could easily see more player pushback on that idea

on the other hand players really want a shut down in league operations to accommodate Olympics.

if...
if...
if... there is a wide spread phenomenon of revenue lost due to this virus skill next year...
and if escrow climbs to 20-25-30% it might really be one hell of an eye opener to some of these players

a lot of vets went through labor loss of a years pay because they were told they would get it back with the new system. now those players lose 10-15% of their salary each year? and that means for every 7 years they play they lose a whole nother year of their money in order to pay johnny come lately kids

I agree with you dom... right now as we listen to the party line... they are saying the heavy lifting is done.

I remember the wwe telling its stock holders their new tv deal would be monsterous.

in fact I remember many many many fortune 500 companies lying about financial reports...

if we spend more time listening to the whispers in the shadows sometimes we see the red flags before the bull runs us over... the carnary is sent into the coal mind for a reason... see the danger and try to respond in time before disaster strikes

on the other hand... im a huge fan of these American greed documentaries and I know some fraudsters like Bernie Madoff kept his house of cards going for like 20 years or more

the nhl has constantly budgeted falsely now for years and years and have kept fixing their deficient by simply taking from peter and paying paul

it might just keep going if the uneducated players can be convinced to buy in for one more poke at the pig

I find it all... continuing to be fascinating. weve lost a season and most of another in recent years because this shit does matter... it is real

I watch every episode of American greed too... its fascinating to me
I read all the books I can about selling the Brooklyn bridge or the effel tower {and yes both have been sold many times}

I lap up tales about effron and how the wolf of wallstreet worked his magic

its just something I find a hell of a lot of fun

so... I dont wish ill on the world with the virus... but anyone who thinks they are certain about the next 12 months... is really hoping that light in the tunnel coming isnt the 2pm express

ouch

 

[Alberta_OReilly_Fan]

on a personal note... I hope the cap is over 84 mill because for us, it allows us to keep our team together. but for people that are saying we should overpay guys on long term deals... things like this virus are a huge warning I think you need to take heed of

the cap might be 84 this next year and in the 60s {or lower} the following season if all the arenas end up empty next season

 

[b in vancouver]

A question for people smarter/more informed than I am and the list is long.
Does shutting down the league mean The Cap will likely drop next year?

 

[JOKER 192]

A question for people smarter/more informed than I am and the list is long.
Does shutting down the league mean The Cap will likely drop next year?

I'm probably at an even lower level than you but I can't see how this doesn't effect the cap. How much remains to be seen I would think.

 

[DominicT]

A question for people smarter/more informed than I am and the list is long.
Does shutting down the league mean The Cap will likely drop next year?

It's possible, that for one year, the owners would be willing to accept less then 50 percent of HRR. The actual dollar amount would be negotiated with the NHLPA.

Would they do it? Depends on what side the wealthy teams, NYR, Toronto, Montreal, Boston etc are on.

It is not written in stone the cap will drop.

 

[Ratty]

maybe. Or you can give him his extension after expansion draft and be able to protect Vladar instead.

Rask is a UFA after the 2020-2021 season. Thus, unless he's signed to a contract before the draft and protected he's fair game for the Kracken. Time to see next season what we have in Vladar.

 

[Trap Jesus]

This can't even be discussed in any kind of reasonable capacity now.

 

[Alberta_OReilly_Fan]

Cap is determined by cba and currently calculated by simple math

If they cant agree to any modified changes then the math will see less hrr

But if both sides were to agree to changes, the cba can be modified

My guess... it was poor teams that wanted this cap system and they will be hurt the worst by this shutdown. Cant see them wanting to take a hit unless theirs more revenue share from rich teams

Cant really see rich teams wanting to dismantle their teams

I forsee the owners unable to agree on a cba modification... this will mean much much higher escrow for the players

And i sure wouldnt want to be a free agent looking for a new contract

Ultimately someone will need to pay for this