Prospect Info: 2020-21 Flyers Prospects - Top 30 SKATERS, #12

[BiggE]

He is playing in the top six on a KHL team and shutting down the best players in the league every night. His D game is not an issue at all. He is a good PKer. Good on the boards. And has a lot of skill.

Will he ever be more than a bottom sixer? Probably not. Frustratingly so. He has the tools. But a very defensive mindset. He thinks defense 1st, 2nd and 3rd.

Ratcliffe was worse than him in the AHL last year. Put up less production, playing easier minutes, while being a worse defensive player at a less important position. And he cant PK well. And his IQ seems lacking. And he struggles with short area skating.

And he is only half year younger basically. And has LOTS of issues to figure out. Heck, he is less physical and worse on the boards than Rubtsov despite being a lot bigger... is half the defensive player, and has worse hands and vision.

If Rubtsov had been a 3rd or 4th rounder and was playing "fine/well" in the KHL like he is people would probably be higher on him.

If Rubtsov is barely a prospect what does that say about Ratcliffe right now? He needs improvements in a lot of areas of his game. Big year for him coming up. Because right now he is a sub-par AHLer who was outplayed by basically every other forward prospect last year including Pascal Laberge.

The only question marks with Rubtsov are:

1. can he stay healthy and withstand the wear and tear of a full NHL season?

2. can he be aggressive enough offensively to be an effective middle 6 player or will he just be a 4th line/PK specialist

If the answer to #1 is yes, he will absolutely be an NHL player. If both are yes, he’ll end up being a solid pick

Ratcliffe, if he can put it all together, has potential to be the better player as you rarely see a 6’6 guy with wheels like his. But he could also be a bust. In his defense, it’s not uncommon for players of his height and frame to take longer to fill out and put it all together. I don’t think he will ever score like he did in junior at the NHL level, but he could turn into a solid middle 6 LW. Plus with his skating ability and reach, he could also turn into a top notch PKer.

 

[Appleyard]

The only question marks with Rubtsov are:

1. can he stay healthy and withstand the wear and tear of a full NHL season?

2. can he be aggressive enough offensively to be an effective middle 6 player or will he just be a 4th line/PK specialist

If the answer to #1 is yes, he will absolutely be an NHL player. If both are yes, he’ll end up being a solid pick

Ratcliffe, if he can put it all together, has potential to be the better player as you rarely see a 6’6 guy with wheels like his. But he could also be a bust. In his defense, it’s not uncommon for players of his height and frame to take longer to fill out and put it all together. I don’t think he will ever score like he did in junior at the NHL level, but he could turn into a solid middle 6 LW. Plus with his skating ability and reach, he could also turn into a top notch PKer.

I feel like even if Rubtsov can just be a 20 point 4C who PKs well that is probably more valuable than a ~30 point winger though as well.

Ratcliffe just worries me a lot. Where does he "win" right now? He has a good shot... where else? He struggled to get to positions to shoot and had low shot quality last year even though in theory his wrister is a plus.

And while his stride is good and has speed he is pretty poor in short areas and struggles to use his size effectively, or make small adjustments to position in slot, around net and on boards. So apart from on the rush his skating elsewhere kind of lets him down at times. And he does not anticipate plays well so players usually get a jump on him.

 

[deadhead]

Now I think you have to take expected development trajectories into account, Rubtsov was far more polished when he was drafted than Ratcliffe. To me, until Ratcliffe fills out (it's hard for a 6'6 guy to win board battles until he has enough mass due to a high center of gravity) he's not even a prospect, because it's size and mobility (similar to a healthy Morin) that will be his calling card - and if he doesn't fill out, bye. Rubtsov just needs PT to fill out his game, but if he doesn't show real offensive chops, 4th line is his ceiling.

Which is why I went with Hogberg over either of them, Hogberg needs to add strength, and doesn't seem to have York's work ethic (which wouldn't surprise me with many SHL players, while they'd like to go to NA for the money and fame, if you're a solid SHL player it's a pretty good gig for a Swede compared to say the AHL or even getting exiled to some ugly region of Russia in the KHL - so less urgency to climb the ladder). But from all reports he's a solid SHL player with 200 games under his belt and he's taken a step up this season offensively.

JOB and Wisdom are unknowns, until JOB plays some college games and Wisdom plays period, you can't gauge their progress.
Desnoyers has had a great start, but given his past track record, I want to see him do it over 50 games or so. Same with Kase.
Wylie, we know he consistently improved over four CHL seasons, but will that continue in the AHL?
Attard has yet to do enough to elevate him on the list, same with Lycksell and Sushko.
Bunnaman and Twarynski have played in the NHL at 21, which is a vote of confidence by the organization, but neither have shown their ceiling is above the 4th line yet.

OK, so what criteria do you use to sort this group out?

Initial draft position means crap after 2-3 years, it's a "Bayesian prior" that should have less informational value as new information comes in, at the least you should think about where they'd be re-drafted. People overrate Ratcliffe b/c of his draft position, and underrate him b/c he's was always a project (that is, he was probably going to make the NHL at age 22-23, but given that he'll be 22 in February, the future is now, he should be filling out and making a big jump this season).

 

[BiggE]

I feel like even if Rubtsov can just be a 20 point 4C who PKs well that is probably more valuable than a ~30 point winger though as well.

Ratcliffe just worries me a lot. Where does he "win" right now? He has a good shot... where else? He struggled to get to positions to shoot and had low shot quality last year even though in theory his wrister is a plus.

And while his stride is good and has speed he is pretty poor in short areas and struggles to use his size effectively, or make small adjustments to position in slot, around net and on boards. So apart from on the rush his skating elsewhere kind of lets him down at times. And he does not anticipate plays well so players usually get a jump on him.

He looked like a young colt to me last year, as he just seemed awkward and unsure of himself. I do think there is potential though. What frustrates me is that all of the LHV prospects have to suffer under the inept coaching of Mimsy Gordon. As much as I want to see Therrien fired, I think I want to see Gordon gone even more.

 

[Appleyard]

He looked like a young colt to me last year, as he just seemed awkward and unsure of himself. I do think there is potential though. What frustrates me is that all of the LHV prospects have to suffer under the inept coaching of Mimsy Gordon. As much as I want to see Therrien fired, I think I want to see Gordon gone even more.

Oh, agree on Gordon.

But his lack of awareness combined with that short skating really did shock me so much in a negative way. IQ is such a big part of being an NHLer. And a man that big should not lose so many battles.

Rubtsov, Sushko, Bunnaman and Laberge are all ~his age or within 10 months of him... and while all had their own issues, and coaching did not help, none just looked so lost on a regular basis.

 

[deadhead]

As much as people trash Gordon, where are the prospects that go elsewhere and have success once away from his malign influence?
Meanwhile, numerous prospects have graduated and contributed to the NHL team, Laughton, NAK, Sanheim, Myers, Bunnaman, Lindblom, so it seems a season or so under his tutelage hasn't set anyone back so far.

My suspicion is our AHL coaching staff is good at teaching fundamentals but bad at actually coaching a team, and we saw what happened when Gordon replaced Hakstol, the team didn't play as well (though the goalies improved, but that had little to do with the HC change). Hakstol was too rigid, but he got the team playing disciplined defense, Gordon is just not a good game coach.

 

[TB87]

Hogberg needs to add strength, and doesn't seem to have York's work ethic

How could you possibly know this? This is pure conjecture. The Flyers (& Hogberg) wanted him to excel in the SHL first prior to coming over to NA.

 

[Larry44]

Ratcliffe over Rubtsov, Hogberg, Kase?

I voted Kase, but I see him and Rubtsov as equal. Hogberg is a smooth player. Ratcliffe is a good pro prospect still, I saw him in person a few times and liked him. All of them are going to have to fight to even get a shot.

 

[deadhead]

How could you possibly know this? This is pure conjecture. The Flyers (& Hogberg) wanted him to excel in the SHL first prior to coming over to NA.

HockeyBuzz.com - Bill Meltzer - Flyers Sign Högberg to ELC

"He has good self-awareness as a player. He knows what works for him, and his game doesn't change much from night to night. He skates well, moves the puck and keeps things fairly simple out there. One thing that we've been looking for from Högberg is for him to add strength, which has taken awhile, to be equipped to handle the physical game he'd be up against over here. He has some skill but he's not very aggressive in his approach. But he's been a pretty consistently responsible player, works hard and he is an established young pro over there at this point," Flahr said in January.

He's 22, if he was working hard in the offseason to build up strength, at this point in his development it shouldn't be an issue.
Doesn't mean he's lazy, just that he obviously wasn't driven like York, who made that a priority going into his second college season (probably b/c he learned in his freshman season that playing against 22 year olds is far different than 18 year olds).

 

[TB87]

HockeyBuzz.com - Bill Meltzer - Flyers Sign Högberg to ELC

"He has good self-awareness as a player. He knows what works for him, and his game doesn't change much from night to night. He skates well, moves the puck and keeps things fairly simple out there. One thing that we've been looking for from Högberg is for him to add strength, which has taken awhile, to be equipped to handle the physical game he'd be up against over here. He has some skill but he's not very aggressive in his approach. But he's been a pretty consistently responsible player, works hard and he is an established young pro over there at this point," Flahr said in January.

He's 22, if he was working hard in the offseason to build up strength, at this point in his development it shouldn't be an issue.
Doesn't mean he's lazy, just that he obviously wasn't driven like York, who made that a priority going into his second college season (probably b/c he learned in his freshman season that playing against 22 year olds is far different than 18 year olds).

Again. Speculation. I can’t make that direct connection without any real inside knowledge. That’s a quote that can be copy and pasted for basically every hockey prospect ever (i.e. he needs to get stronger/put on muscle).

It’s taken him awhile = it’s taken him awhile
It’s taken him awhile ≠ he lacks work ethic

If I don’t have legit inside knowledge, I’m not going to speculate. I’m not comfortable making those leaps without genuine evidence.

 

[deadhead]

I'm not a reporter, I don't have to hold to those standards in this forum.
By 22-23, a player should be approaching physical maturity, I have the same standard for Ratcliffe, if he isn't appreciably stronger this season (and especially next season), I'd consider him a bust. Without strength he's just a tall forward with limited agility.
In some cases, they just don't have the frame to add strength, Ghost is a good example.
In other cases, I think they're just not as driven as other players, it's boring to spend hours in the gym every day.

 

[SanBlom]

Wisdom for me.

Happy to have you!

 

[GapToothedWonder]

The only question marks with Rubtsov are:

1. can he stay healthy and withstand the wear and tear of a full NHL season?

2. can he be aggressive enough offensively to be an effective middle 6 player or will he just be a 4th line/PK specialist

If the answer to #1 is yes, he will absolutely be an NHL player. If both are yes, he’ll end up being a solid pick

Ratcliffe, if he can put it all together, has potential to be the better player as you rarely see a 6’6 guy with wheels like his. But he could also be a bust. In his defense, it’s not uncommon for players of his height and frame to take longer to fill out and put it all together. I don’t think he will ever score like he did in junior at the NHL level, but he could turn into a solid middle 6 LW. Plus with his skating ability and reach, he could also turn into a top notch PKer.

Forwards with his height and frame don't just take longer they rarely ever figure it out.

 

[flyerslducks]

I feel like even if Rubtsov can just be a 20 point 4C who PKs well that is probably more valuable than a ~30 point winger though as well.
/QUOTE]

this is what i think rubstov will be if he makes it. I don;t think he will be what laughton was (a 4c who can play in the middle 6/be a mainstay on the 3rd line if need be) and this isn't a bad thing. We can always use 4c's who can have that pk role, play defensive, and not be a burden. Idk why we are always searching for a 4c but it seems like we haven't had a stable one in a while. Now we have laughton, rubstov, bunnaman, and others who can all play there.

 

[Beef Invictus]

Hogberg

 

[Tripod]

So Sanheim must also lack work ethic.

 

[TB87]

So Sanheim must also lack work ethic.

Hahaha! This is still happening?

Musculature FTW! Always and forever. Bigger is better. Always. I live for absolutes!

 

[freakydallas13]

Ratcliffe over Rubtsov, Hogberg, Kase?

Don't look at me, I've been voting Hogberg for like 4 or 5 polls now.

 

[Curufinwe]

Need two more mail in votes for Ruby.

 

[GapToothedWonder]

I meant to pick Hogberg but hit Kase by mistake. If he gets to 17 can mine be switched?

 

[Ghosts Beer]

I don’t get the Rubtsov votes here. Riding off of being a former 1st rd. pick. If he ever makes it, he’s got a 4th line ceiling, but he’s not exactly the type of player most NHL coaches want on their 4th line. He’s not particularly fast, not particularly strong, not high energy, doesn’t punish defenders on the forecheck, has a defensive style yet sucks at draws & has to play wing, no goal scoring ability. He’s as bland as bland gets. Just like Vorobyev, get used to Russia, German.

 

[deadhead]

Rubtsov is the opposite of Vorobyev, his defense and forechecking are not in question, it's his reluctance to be more aggressive on offense (similar to Bunnaman, probably fear of making costly mistakes) that's holding him back (and staying healthy). He is playing a bigger role in the KHL and because the stakes are lower, he can learn on the job there.

If a young player can hold down a 4th line/PK slot, that can buy him 2-3 years (as a low cost depth player) to work on his offensive skills. The problem with Vorobyev is he's a lousy fit on a 4th line, but not skilled enough to center a 3rd line right now.