Prospect Info: 2020-21 Flyers Prospects - Top 30 SKATERS, #11

[Curufinwe]

1. Frost, Morgan - 80%
2. York, Cam - 71%
3. Zamula, Yegor - 48%
4. Brink, Bobby - 73%
5. Foerster, Tyson - 53%
6. Andrae, Emil - 40%
7. Laczynski, Tanner - 46%
8. Allison, Wade - 37%
9. Millman, Mason - 36%
10. Cates, Noah - 32%

Prospect Info: - 2020-21 Flyers Prospects - Top 30 SKATERS, #10

Click to read more...

 

[IronMarshal]

Went upside with Ratcliffe over Bunnaman, Rubtsov, Attard, and Hogberg

 

[Stizzle]

We're getting into pretty murky territory now. I'm torn between voting Jay O'Brien or Elliot Desnoyers.

I've only seen Elliot Desnoyers play twice so far. If Desnoyers keeps up anything in the same stratosphere to his current point pace, he should probably be higher than this spot. He looks pretty quick, skates hard, and always heads to the net with purpose. Very much the alpha dog on the ice. I'm definitely going to watch him more. Come to think of it, his style of play actually seems somewhat similar to JOB.

With Jay O'Brien, I've seen plenty enough to know I like his game. I've defended him, to a point, versus the crowd already declaring him a bust. He may very well end up busting, I don't know, but I'll swear his stat line ran eons below expectation judging by the Providence games I watched.

JOB is far from perfect. He gets knocked off his skates way too often, and I haven't been that impressed by his playmaking abilities. Even with that, he has an all around package worth sticking with.

It feels like gambling on the blazing hot flavor of the month, or the skilled ex-1st rounder is a better option than going with a floor play like Bunnaman. I respect the leaps he's made, and absolutely value what he brings. Lord knows we've suffered through enough shitty NHL 4th liners that get constantly caved in. Bunny held his own last year, and came out on the positive side of the ledger. That's no small accomplishment, but I can't pass on Desnoyers or O'Brien for him right now.

Bunny just has no offense at all to fall back on other than his net front presence. Even with his lack of offense, you could still make a compelling argument in his favor since he's ready made. Also, Bunny should bring value on the PK.

On defense, I know some will scream for Hogberg. I haven't seen Hogberg play for so long that maybe I'm just disconnected from him. I do like him, though. Wylie and St. Ivany might be in a similar tier to Hogberg also. Especially if you give them the RHD value bump, like I do.

Tough call here. I'll gamble on Desnoyers. Give me the young player with fast rising stock. He's single-handedly carrying that team right now, and it doesn't seem like empty stats.

It's evident Desnoyers isn't profiting off playing with a good surrounding cast, like Ratcliffe was. He won't keep up this pace, in large part because the talent level in Halifax is underwhelming. That's fine, though. Desnoyers still seems worth a dice roll over what else is left, as does JOB.


TL;DR... Desnoyers

 

[FLYguy3911]

Went JOB. I think he has the best combo of skill and skating on the board, pretty easily probably. Maybe McClennon gives him a run there, but it’s do or die time for Jay. I guess I’m still leaning on the do side of things. Sounds like he’s going to be the 1C at BU.

Desnoyers is a nice piece who has had an encouraging start to his season but I can’t help but feel he’s in that Sushko mold of player- relatively high probability fourth liner, but unlikely to be more than that. Pretty good at everything, great at nothing. Certainly a fine outcome for a fifth rounder, but not ready to call him a fringey top 10 prospect just yet.

 

[deadhead]

I'll go with Hogberg based on his offense this year, even at a lower level, it's evident that he simply wasn't given the opportunity in the SHL to play a bigger role, but he's taken advantage of an inadvertent "demotion" to show more skill than was thought he possessed. As an undersized defensive defenseman he had limited value, but if he can use that mobility and passing skill to create offense you have to kick him up a notch or two.

Ratcliffe is too much a project, JOB too much a complete unknown until we see him in college this winter.
Desnoyers is simply too early to make a case for him, hot start but given his history, you want to see him sustain it for a year.
Kase is close to NHL ready, but is he more than a marginal 3rd line forward?
Bunnaman will be a solid 4C or 4LW, but has to show more offensive chops.
Wylie has made steady progress, does he have the talent to continue to progress at higher levels?
Attard has to take a step up this year, Sushko has to produce more offensively to jump ahead of Bunnaman.
Rubtsov is stepping up so far in the KHL, let's see if he makes it to the finish line.
Twarynski gets no respect, but he did make the team out of camp at 21 years old, he can skate, shoot and forecheck
And of course, the wildcard, in Wisdom.

It's a big group of legitimate prospects, all with flaws and/or question marks, most who'll make the NHL in some fashion down the road, if not in Philly, somewhere.

 

[Cootsfanclub]

I've been riding Rubstov since #7.

 

[Appleyard]

We have a 22 year old KHL 1C who is not a top 10 prospect... pretty nice.

(though they are basically a VHL team in the KHL this year ahaha.)

 

[FlyTimmo]

I should have voted for David F’ing Kase

 

[VladDrag]

I should have voted for David F’ing Kase

Yes. Yes you should have.

 

[TB87]

We’re really getting into the weeds now. Not sure who I’m going to vote for. Gonna need to do some extra thinking on this one.

 

[LegionOfDoom91]

We’re really getting into the weeds now. Not sure who I’m going to vote for. Gonna need to do some extra thinking on this one.

Adam Ginning it is!

 

[BiggE]

I will make my stand on Hogberg hill!

 

[BiggE]

I've been riding Rubstov since #7.

I hope he pans out but the guy seems to be one of those players who just cannot stay healthy.

 

[Stizzle]

We’re really getting into the weeds now. Not sure who I’m going to vote for. Gonna need to do some extra thinking on this one.

When Ted's time expires and he gets auto drafted Ginning...

 

[TB87]

Adam Ginning it is!

He’s bad but he looks gigantic while he’s playing so it’s cool.

 

[Beef Invictus]

Hogberg has 10 points in 14 games.

 

[landsbergfan]

Hogberg has 10 points in 14 games.

...in HockeyAllsvenskan

 

[Beef Invictus]

...in HockeyAllsvenskan

Obviously the NHL of Allsvenskan-themed leagues.

 

[deadhead]

If Appleyard is right about Allsvenskan being full of "ringers" this year, it's probably at normal AHL level or a little higher.
So if Hogberg was scoring like this on the Phantoms we'd be going ga ga.

 

[Appleyard]

If Appleyard is right about Allsvenskan being full of "ringers" this year, it's probably at normal AHL level or a little higher.
So if Hogberg was scoring like this on the Phantoms we'd be going ga ga.

I dont think it is quite AHL level...

too much disparity at bottom end. Though top ~5-6 teams could compete and win in AHL right now. But the bottom ~3 teams are pretty poor...

but it is a top 10 league (albeit 9-10th) on earth normally. I reckon right now the level is probably better than say - DEL - normally, and just around ~Czech Extraliga normal level.

Hogberg is on a team with several NHLers/good AHLers and tbh only Marcus Sörensen is more important right now for me.

 

[Larry44]

We have a 22 year old KHL 1C who is not a top 10 prospect... pretty nice.

(though they are basically a VHL team in the KHL this year ahaha.)

I'm staying with Kase, but I really want Rubtsov to pan out too. Very smart players who skate well, which is what we need.

 

[deadhead]

I dont think it is quite AHL level...

too much disparity at bottom end. Though top ~5-6 teams could compete and win in AHL right now. But the bottom ~3 teams are pretty poor...

Have you watched the Phantoms lately?

 

[Appleyard]

Have you watched the Phantoms lately?

I mean, everyone was 40% the player they were statistically vs other years...

they had a 3rd line than would be half the AHLs first line on paper.

But... Scott Gordon.

 

[landsbergfan]

I guess there is an unknown theoretical upside that JOB still has vs Rubstov? I like Rubstov more as a player right now, but I have seen a lot more of him than JOB. I acknowledge the upside, but I see less of a reason to care about JOB until he gives me a reason to. If we are picking Cates at 10 Rubstov at 11 is easy

 

[Stizzle]

I guess there is an unknown theoretical upside that JOB still has vs Rubstov?

For me, it's really just the eye test. They both have gone stretches performing poor statistically. Since being traded to Acadie-Bathurst, Rubtsov has looked terrible imo. I've felt O'Brien actually looked pretty good at Providence.

I don't think Providence or Lehigh Valley are a good situation for player development, but Acadie-Bathurst sure should have been. That was a prime time team, and Rubtsov floundered in A-B.

In Rubtsov's 1st AHL year he started hot on the scoresheet before a season ending injury. I watched many of those games, and stated it looked like a mirage to me. Even ranking him way below consensus. After putting up a pathetic stat line this past year in the AHL, I think my intuition and ranking were shown to be correct.

We'll see with JOB. This is a huge year for him. I'm just way more optimistic he can put it together, compared to Rubtsov.

I think JOB has a certain dynamic flavor and skill level Rubtsov doesn't approach.

If we are picking Cates at 10 Rubstov at 11 is easy

I don't see the correlation here. Cates has been somewhat of a homerun pick. He's done everything you could possibly want out of a prospect. His progress has been clear and steady.