2019-20 Salary Cap $81.4-85.4m (Oct BOG) UPD: $83m @ Dec BOG; Final: $81.5m

Discussion in 'Fugu's Business of Hockey Forum' started by LadyStanley, Oct 10, 2018.

  1. LadyStanley

    LadyStanley Registered User

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    31 Thoughts: NHL embracing new era of fun, personality - Sportsnet.ca

    Think the escalator remains low next season too.
     
  2. Tinalera

    Tinalera Registered User

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    So what are the odds we 100 mil cap in 10 years? Or does cba claw salaries back again?
     
  3. LadyStanley

    LadyStanley Registered User

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    And rising?
     
  4. Spartachat

    Spartachat Disgruntled Melnyk Bot

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    Senators fans want to know if the floor (the Budget) goes up.
     
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  5. LeHab

    LeHab Registered User

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    If the cap goes up, floor increases proportionally.
     
  6. Spartachat

    Spartachat Disgruntled Melnyk Bot

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    So I guess Melnyk will be looking for some insured LTIR contracts to get up to the floor.
     
  7. WTFMAN99

    WTFMAN99 Registered User

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    That is an 83M guess right now, but NHLPA can use inflator 0-3% right? Previously they had been using around 1.5% right?
     
  8. MNNumbers

    MNNumbers Registered User

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    OP says estimate is 81.4M, but if the PA wants a 5% escalator, it goes to 85.4M or so.
     
  9. LeHab

    LeHab Registered User

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    This season Sens are projected to be well above floor. Unless team unloads Stone and Duchene for cheap contracts/picks don't think reaching floor will be a concern.
     
  10. NorthCoast

    NorthCoast Registered User

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    I think what they are referring to is the actual budget being spent on the ice. Take out McCarthur and Gaborik's insured contracts (approx. 9 mil combined) and the money spent on the ice drops from 71 to 62. Lose one of Duchene or Stone and you may still be above the cap floor technically, but in the money spent on the ice is actually well below the floor.

    If you take away money spent on mistakes (phaneuf/condon), that's another 4.5 mil.

    In other words, the sens could easily be running a team out onto the ice next year that totals around 50 mil in actual salary...with a cap floor in the low 60s:(
     
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  11. MarkovsKnee

    MarkovsKnee Global Moderator

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    Does anyone know when the new cap hit comes into effect? Is it July 1st when free agency opens or start of training camps? In the summer months, teams can go 10% over, but is that 10% of $79,5m or $83m?

    When exactly does the 2019-2020 season cap "start"?

    I couldn't seem to find that information anywhere.
     
  12. LadyStanley

    LadyStanley Registered User

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    July 1. (But teams can exceed cap 10% during the off season. If cap is $80m, they can go up to $88m.) Official cap limit for the upcoming season is announced in late June (around entry draft).

    Teams must be in cap compliance the day before the start of the season. (IOW when season opening rosters are due).
     
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  13. Ola

    Ola HFBoards Sponsor Sponsor

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    If this is correct it would mean that underlying growth would be much smaller this year than what we have seen on average previous years, in fact much smaller. I.E. 81.4 / (79.5*0.9875 (i.e. what the cap would have been last season if no escalator would have been used (i recon this is a bit sloppy since the escalator affects the midpoint and not the ceiling, but maybe close enough))) = 3.6 per cent, against 5+% previous years.

    Seems low to me.
     
  14. Flukeshot

    Flukeshot Fletcher Activate!

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    The latest report was that the cap won't go up as much as expected. Not sure if $83M was the expectation in reference.
     
  15. Weltschmerz

    Weltschmerz Front Running Fan

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    Any news on this topic? Read somewhere on this boards that at the combine there was talk the cap could be between 81 and 82?
     
  16. LadyStanley

    LadyStanley Registered User

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    Probably coming after BOG meeting (but before draft).
     
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  17. Marc the Habs Fan

    Marc the Habs Fan Moderator

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    Friedman said it on his 31 thoughts podcast last week. A lot of teams are expecting 82 M, some are even doing worst case scenarios with a cap of 81 M.
     
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  18. Blackhawkswincup

    Blackhawkswincup RIP Fugu

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    I have been pegging it as 81.5M on CF for a while now and think that will be end result
     
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  19. TheWhiskeyThief

    TheWhiskeyThief Registered User

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    If you go off what the compensation numbers are, you can work backwards thru the CBA to determine the rate of inflation, then use the cap from the CBA to guesstimate the cap this year.

    IIRC, the number pencils out to a little over $82mm($82.18mm)
     
  20. LadyStanley

    LadyStanley Registered User

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    31 Thoughts: Sharks still have shot at keeping Erik Karlsson - Sportsnet.ca

    Friedman notes
    So, BOG meets 6/18. Hopefully NHLPA has a decision on escrow then or soon after, so we can get firm cap $$.
     
  21. LeHab

    LeHab Registered User

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    Last year cap numbers were published on June 21st, a day after BOG meeting. Expect something on June 19 this year?

    (edit) BoG meets on June 19th
     
    Last edited: Jun 18, 2019
  22. mouser

    mouser Business of Hockey

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    There's a correlation between the two numbers, but they're not directly linked together that they grow at identical %'s. The draft pick compensation numbers are based on average player salary. This is affected by factors like front-loaded or back-loaded contract balance, and average # of players per roster. Also, so far as I'm aware escrow is not factored into the compensation calculation, so swings in effective escrow % are going to slew average player salary in a way that isn't reflected in the salary cap.
     
  23. TheWhiskeyThief

    TheWhiskeyThief Registered User

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    Escrow is just a backwards revision to the cap. CBA inflator & adjusted midpoint tweaks the headline number, escrow claws it back once final HRR comes out.

    Average salary is going to be closer to the actual midpoint than adjusted midpoint.
     
  24. mouser

    mouser Business of Hockey

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    Escrow is a backwards revision to salary. Which again, to my knowledge is not reflected in the draft pick compensation growth rate.

    Given escrow has been 5%+ for many years average salary has actually been closer to the adjusted midpoint then actual midpoint. Though that really doesn't matter. The point remains that average salary and the salary cap ceiling don't increase by identical % rates.
     
  25. tony d

    tony d HFBoards Sponsor Sponsor

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    Will be interesting to see the final numbers for the salary cap. The higher the better as it speaks to the overall health of the game to have a high salary cap.
     

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