2019-20 Official Hollywood Top 35

Discussion in 'NCAA, U Sports, and other college' started by Hollywood3, Sep 23, 2019.

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  1. Hollywood3 Bison/Jet/Moose Fan

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    This is the pre-season table and is NOT a ranking. The regular season starts Wednesday in the AUS and Friday in the CW. The OUA waits until October 2nd.

    I have not double-checked all results. Sometimes games are added and not publicized very much.

    There were also a lot of cancelled games. UNB and York started a game and had to abandon due to ice conditions, the Lakehead series with Laurentian was a victim of late renovations, and others were just voluntarily squelched.

    In a disappointment, there were only three interlocking games between the OUA and AUS (out of four scheduled), and neither conference played a CW team. There also seem to be fewer than usual games against NCAA teams.

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    * indicates total includes a tie game
    Conf. indicates overall conference record
    Con-x indicates exhibition record within conference
    CIS-x indicates exhibition record within CIS but outside conference
    CIS indicates regular season and exhibition record against CIS teams
    Other indicates record against non-CIS teams
    Total indicates record against all teams


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  2. Hollywood3 Bison/Jet/Moose Fan

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    Since many OUA teams have yet to start their regular season, this is, once again NOT a ranking. I have not yet declared any A level teams. Most teams are starting at C+, with a handful at C and two handfuls at B.

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    * indicates total includes a tie game
    Conf. indicates overall conference record
    Con-x indicates exhibition record within conference
    CIS-x indicates exhibition record within CIS but outside conference
    CIS indicates regular season and exhibition record against CIS teams
    Other indicates record against non-CIS teams
    Total indicates record against all teams


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    Last edited: Oct 9, 2019
  3. Hollywood3 Bison/Jet/Moose Fan

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    [​IMG] OHT35: Week 4: October 13, 2019

    This was the first week where all teams were playing regular season games, no exhibitions. Although the results are very preliminary and subject to massive change in coming weeks, there is now enough data for a ranking. So here it goes.

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    The rankings are largely based on the AOA ("average of averages"), with one main exception. Check the Brock/York area. At this stage, due to small numbers (or no numbers) in some segments, oddities arise. Those teams have identical records against the same level of opposition, but Brock is marginally better in non-conference play.
     
  4. Hollywood3 Bison/Jet/Moose Fan

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    [​IMG] OHT35: Week 5: October 20, 2019

    So the season is really in full swing now. Here were the highlights of the week that was:

    Canada West:
    - The three winless teams all won their first (Regina and &UBC split with one another) or their first AND second (Sask swept Lethbridge).
    - Manitoba's split with Calgary and MRU's split with Alberta raised eyebrows across the U-Hockey world.

    Ontario:
    - This was week 2 of the East/West interlock. Last week the East won 7-3 and this time they won 6-4.
    - Promoted teams were Western Ontario (from C to C+) and Guelph (from C+ to B).

    Atlantic:
    - Acadia made the jump from B to A, and #1 in the overall rankings.
    - Dalhousie is exceeding expectations.


    Links:
    Schedule
    Standings



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    This week, McGill's and Brock's AOA number was lacking accuracy due to small sample size, and they were adjusted accordingly.
     
  5. Hollywood3 Bison/Jet/Moose Fan

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    [​IMG] OHT35: Week 6: October 27, 2019

    OFFICIAL HOLLYWOOD TOP 35


    There were no category shifts this week, but those bubble teams could all shift next time. As usual there are a few spots where results are skewed due to small sample size.
    There were no interlocking games between OUA East and West, nor were there any non-conference games. Therefore those charts were not changed at all and I left them out of this post.

    Links:
    Schedule
    Standings


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  6. Hollywood3 Bison/Jet/Moose Fan

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    [​IMG] OHT35: Week 7: November 3, 2019

    OFFICIAL HOLLYWOOD TOP 35

    The OUA West went 8-0 against the OUA East to really turn that around.

    I applied result “smoothing” for the first time in situations where just one game has been played in a category. Categories are merged and the value applied to both, but the value cannot be increased beyond the default value. (Example 1: 1-0-0 and 3-2-0 would be 100% and 60%. When "smoothed" each would be 67%. Example 2: 0-1-0 and 3-2-0 would be 0% and 60%. "Smoothed" would be 50% each, but the 0-1-0 would be a maximum of 25% if it is for a one level higher team.)

    In the OUA, Ottawa, Guelph, Lakehead, and Nipissing went down a level. And going up a level were Toronto and Brock.

    No teams switched categories in the CW or AUS.

    I have introduced some sub-categories, with a view to a major re-shuffle coming up. The B- and C++ could be merged into an expanded B level.

    Links:
    Schedule
    Standings


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    ~ indicates AOA altered by combining categories
     
    Last edited: Nov 5, 2019
  7. Hollywood3 Bison/Jet/Moose Fan

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    OHT35: Week 8: November 10, 2019

    OFFICIAL HOLLYWOOD TOP 35

    After going 8-0 last week, the OUA West went 7-2 against the OUA East to really alter the relative rankings of those divisions.

    The “smoothing” seems to work pretty well. The AOA when smoothed yields a pretty accurate ranking.

    This week the category shifts are:
    - Calgary demoted from A to B
    - St.F.X. demoted from B to C+
    - Dalhousie demoted from C+ to C
    - Saskatchewan, Ryerson, UQTR promoted from C+ to B

    The teams in yellow kept moving each time I recalculated, so ultimately (after 4 sweeps through the numbers) I left them where they are.

    Links:
    Schedule
    Standings


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    ~ indicates AOA altered by "smoothing", or combining, categories
     
  8. Hollywood3 Bison/Jet/Moose Fan

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    OFFICIAL HOLLYWOOD TOP 35
    OHT35: Week 9: November 17, 2019

    After last week, I did another run through with the yellow teams from C+ moving down to C. That was actually a better ranking, so I used that as a starting point.

    Then, UBC swept Lethbridge causing them to switch places, UBC moving to (staying at!) C+ and Lethbridge moving down to C.

    The AUS saw St. FX move up from C+ to B. They are likely the one team to switch categories more than any other over the years.

    A few OUA teams moved down from C+ to C: Waterloo, Concordia, McGill, and York. Also, Ryerson went from B to C+.

    The OUA interlock is winding down. There was one game this week (York's win over Nipissing) and one game remains, to be played in January (Queen's at Guelph).

    Links:
    Schedule
    Standings


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    ~ indicates AOA altered by "smoothing", or combining, categories
     
  9. Hollywood3 Bison/Jet/Moose Fan

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    oops!
     
    Last edited: Nov 22, 2019
  10. Hollywood3 Bison/Jet/Moose Fan

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    OFFICIAL HOLLYWOOD TOP 35
    OHT35: Week 10: November 24, 2019


    This week Ryerson and WIndsor from C+ to B and St. FX went back to C+ from B. MRU broke through with a move from B to A. None of those may last very long, since positions are very sensitive right now.
    Next week is the Christmas break and the “smoothing” in situations of just one game will be extended. There are some examples here where rankings have been skewed by the profound impact of one game. Anomlies are Acadia ahead of UNB and Lethbridge being tied with UBC. The AOA is, overall, pretty good.

    The teams to shift are highlighted.

    Links:
    Schedule
    Standings


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    ~ indicates AOA altered by "smoothing", or combining, categories
     
  11. Hollywood3 Bison/Jet/Moose Fan

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    OFFICIAL HOLLYWOOD TOP 35
    OHT35: Week 11: December 3, 2019


    With this being the last week before exams and Christmas breaks. There was one rescheduled game on Tuesday (Ottawa v UQTR) so I waited for that result before issuing this. I also double-checked all scores and standings. Two OTLs were missed by me. The USports site, as of Dec 5th, was missing about 7 or 8 OTLs. Jeesh.

    The shifts were:
    MRU down from A to B
    Lethbridge up from C to C+
    McGill up from C to C+
    Moncton up C+ to B

    Also, the C- teams improved to be C level, except for Laurentian, who start the D category. The teams to shift are highlighted.

    Links:
    Schedule
    Standings


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    ~ indicates AOA altered by "smoothing", or combining, categories
     
    Last edited: Dec 30, 2019
  12. Hollywood3 Bison/Jet/Moose Fan

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    [​IMG] Dec 30: Week 12: Mini-Ranking

    Since the regular season went into break mode after week 11, it was hard to tell what this should be called. The weeks without games are IMO non-existent. So here's week 12.

    There were very few games and none affected the rankings at all. So all I have included are the supplementary charts. The only remaining inter-conference game is the Army v RMC match coming in January. Even the OUAE v OUAW interlock has just one game left, Guelph v Queen's. So those charts are almost done for the year.

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  13. Hollywood3 Bison/Jet/Moose Fan

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    OFFICIAL HOLLYWOOD TOP 35
    OHT35: Week 13: January 5, 2020

    Some teams are hard to categorize. This week, UQTR drop from B to C+ and Lethbridge drops from C+ to C. Nobody moved up. However, Sask (to A) and Guelph and Ottawa (to B) were not far off. UBC were also close to a move down from C+ to C.

    The teams to shift are highlighted. Only one team remains using AOA "smoothing", or combining, categories because Windsor against B level oponents is the only square on the table with just one result. (Oddly, Carleton has no games against B level teams.)

    Also, over the break McGill had a non-conference loss to Yale which was not on the original schedule.

    Links:
    Schedule
    Standings


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    Last edited: Jan 13, 2020
  14. Hollywood3 Bison/Jet/Moose Fan

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    OFFICIAL HOLLYWOOD TOP 35
    OHT35: Week 14: January 12, 2020

    The teams to shift are highlighted and they are UBC and Western Ontario drop from C+ to C, and Sask gets a boost from B to A.

    A sub-category of C- is noted, but does not affect rankings.

    OUA interlock is done for the year, and the West won by exactly a 60-40 margin. Pretty decisive.

    Regina was in contention for the ***-ender award and dunce hats, but look at them driving to near the top of the C level, with visions of a C+ dancing in their head.

    Links:
    Schedule
    Standings


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  15. Hollywood3 Bison/Jet/Moose Fan

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    OFFICIAL HOLLYWOOD TOP 35
    OHT35: Week 15: January 19, 2020

    UBC is a yo-yo team, this time moving back to C+ from C. Meanwhile, two losses against B teams drop Windsor significantly and they shift to mid-C+.

    RMC finished the non-conference schedule for the season, with a big win over Army. Not a significant ratings shift but still a big win for them.

    Links:
    Schedule
    Standings


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  16. Hollywood3 Bison/Jet/Moose Fan

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    OHT35: Week 17: February 2, 2020

    This ranking took longer to do because I missed last week. Oddly, the only movement was downward and the AUS featured. Acadia got the boot from A and Moncton from B. Brock went from C+ to C, leaving a remarkable C-ward skew in the OUA.

    Links:
    Schedule
    Standings


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  17. dm8895 Registered User

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    Really appreciate all the work you do on here , between your rankings (which are way more on point than the actual top 10) and your Canada west thread which basically is the main thing I use to follow CW since most games are after my bed time haha!!
     
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  18. MiamiHockey Registered User

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    Carleton's not as good as their record suggests. They are 11-3 in 1-goal games, which is typically a sign of good fortune rather than a good team.
    Compare that to McGill's 6-6 record in 1-goal games.

    I'm concerned about the lack of high-end teams in the OUA this year. I expect the playoffs to be rife with upsets, and the OUA teams to do even poorer than usual at the University Cup.

    I hope I'm wrong, but it's leaning that way.
     
  19. Hollywood3 Bison/Jet/Moose Fan

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    The OUA West seems to be mostly equal-calibre teams. It makes for interesting conference playoffs. But I agree that a win over Alberta or UNB would be a major upset for an OUA team. However, if the top 3 OUA teams go, one of them could get a win. That would be progress.
     
  20. rethinking Registered User

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    Acadia was a very strong A team up until Feb 19th. UNB was 2-2 against them so they had a 2-2 record against an A team but that disappears somehow when Acadia drops down to B.

    Why is that, if the results are equally weighed. Shouldn't an A win should stay an A win while recent results; UNB 14-0, Saskatchewan 11-0 and Alberta 8-2 have very little effect on the rankings? UNB's A wins disappeared because of recent Acadia results so recent results can affect your charts and ranking but in a negative way only, it seems?
     
  21. Hollywood3 Bison/Jet/Moose Fan

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    The tables are adjusted each time as teams shift categories. At the start of the year you don't know if a win over Team A will be a big thing, middle thing, or little thing.

    Also, the AOA (average of averages) helps when you might not have games against a category. In that case I apply the historical default value (50/50 within your category, 75/25 one category different, 88/12 two categories apart, 94/6 three categories apart). So UNB would have a default 50 for that category.
     
  22. rethinking Registered User

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    Hollywood3, thank you but I'm afraid that your elaborate statistical breakdown is pretty hard to follow. All I know is that Acadia was an A team for 10 consecutive weeks and were actually #1 for 3 of those weeks hardly a very small sample, so wins over them during that time period were certainly quality wins.
     
  23. Hollywood3 Bison/Jet/Moose Fan

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    In hindsight, they were not. Same with Calgary. Other teams got stronger. Small sample size sometimes makes us over-react to early season results.
     
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  24. Hollywood3 Bison/Jet/Moose Fan

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    OFFICIAL HOLLYWOOD TOP 35
    OHT35: Week 18: February 9, 2020
    End of the Regular Season

    The regular season finale resulted in a few rankings which called for switched from the "Average-of-Averages" numbers, most due to the domino effect of AUS numbers falling down due to Acadia's fall from A level. Here's the rankings, with explanatory notes to follow. Since this marks the end of the regular season, all supplementary tables are included.

    Links:
    Schedule
    Standings


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    You will note the deviations from AOA were these:

    - Alberta below UNB
    - Ryerson below Toronto
    - Nipissing below RMC
    - SMU and UPEI were not moved down a level

    Sometimes average are unduly swayed by sample size and other factors. Alberta, Ryerson, and Nipissing were all moved down based on the head-to-head comparison method. SMU and PEI stayed a level above what their AOA would suggest due to the AUS anomaly which hit the rankings recently. In fact, when we look at the rankings skew, I am not comfortable with the AUS falling from 1st to 2nd. The numbers do suggest that the AUS's mid-5 may be fairly equal, but not really national threats, whereas the CW's top-4 are very competitive. We'll see at the nationals.
     

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