Line Combos: 2019-20 Off-Season

[Perratrooper]

Colorado Avalanche 2019-20 Season
Projected Cap: $83 Million

Estimated Cap Space: $38 Million

NHL Contracts: 12

Key Free Agents: Sven Andrighetto (25, RFA), J.T. Compher (23, RFA), Pavel Francouz (28, UFA), Ryan Graves (23, RFA), AJ Greer (22, RFA), Vlad Kamenev (22, RFA), Alexander Kerfoot (24, RFA), Patrik Nemeth (26, UFA), Mikko Rantanen (22, RFA), Semyon Varlamov (30, UFA) and Nikita Zadorov (23, RFA).

Draft Additions (First Round, estimated):
· Ottawa: J. Hughs, K. Kakko, D. Cozens, K. Dach and V. Podkolzin.
· Colorado: A. Turcotte, R. Lavoie, A. Newhook, R. Suzuki

Estimated Additions: Cozens, Turcotte

Projected signings:
· Mikko Rantanen: 8 years 9.75 mil NMC (Once applicable), modified NTC (Once applicable) (comparables: Kucherov (9.5m), Draisaitl(8.5 mil), Eichel(10mil) and Pastrnak(6.66mil))
· Alexander Kerfoot: 4 years 3.75 mil (S. Reinhart(3.65m), B. Nelson(4.25), Mantha (3.3) and Namestnikov(4))
· Nikita Zadorov: 3 years 3.3 mil (Nurse (3.2), Montour (3.4), C. Miller (3.9) and Morrissey (3.2))
· JT Compher: 3 years 2.3 mil (Ritchie (1.6), Jankowski (2.3), Tierney (2.9) and Rieder (2)
· Pavel Francouz: 2 years 1.5mil (speculative)
· Vlad Kamenev: 1 year 1mil (speculative)
· Ryan Graves: 2 years 1 mil (speculative)
· AJ Greer: 2 years .975mil (speculative)
· Cale Makar: 3 years .925mil
· Dylan Cozens: 3 years .925mil
· Shane Bowers: 3 years .800 mil*
* Minors

Total: 25.475 mil 9 contracts

Remaining: 11.525 mil 1 contracts

Free Agent Addition:
· Mark Stone 7 years 9mil NMC

Remaining Cap: 2.5 Million

Lines:
Landeskog-MacKinnon-Rantanen
Cozens-Kerfoot-Stone
Jost-Sodaberg-Compher
Nieto-Kamenev-Calvert
Zadorov-Makar
Cole-Barrie
Girard-Johnson
Francouz
Grubauer

Question Marks:
· Goaltending: Hands down the biggest concern. It will be questionable to say the least, Grubauer has done nothing to give us confidence and Francouz is unproven.
· Rookies: Makar, Cozens and potentially Bowers and Kaut will need to be NHL Caliber or higher if we are going to be successful. If Bowers and Kaut are NHL caliber developing in the A next year we will have fantastic depth with, in an ideal world giving us the ability to roll a fourth line of: Bowers-Kamenev-Kaut
· D-pairs: unless Zadorov and one of Makar/Barrie/Johnson can manage to be a legitimate top pair we will likely have three mid pair d lines, which while not the worst still can leave us struggling against top teams.
· Coaching: I personally do not believe Bednar is the coach that leads us to the promised land, really hoping a coach like John Cooper becomes available and we swoop in to make that last great change.

Future outlook:
With no increase in cap between 2019-20 to 2020-21 we will have approximately 21 million in cap space with Barrie, Jost and Sodaberg’s contracts all coming up, we will have more than enough space to make another big move while also being able to bring in Bowers and Kaut full time and potentially Meloche, Timmins and Turcotte too.

I know it's a bit of a lengthy read, but I needed some positives to focus on with our play of late and hopefully this will make the rest of you feel a bit more positive about the future.

Click to read more...

 

[TruePowerSlave]

Its going to be a very interesting summer. The Avs can put themselves in a position where they can become one of the elite teams in the league fairly soon, as long they draft well and don't make any bad trades or signings. There are so many things that can be done with this team. We will see what Sakic does, hopefully he does not just sit on his hands.

 

[TheForsbergShow]

Its going to be a very interesting summer. The Avs can put themselves in a position where they can become one of the elite teams in the league fairly soon, as long they draft well and don't make any bad trades or signings. There are so many things that can be done with this team. We will see what Sakic does, hopefully he does not just sit on his hands.

Better than putting them near a snowblower.

 

[Perratrooper]

I do believe Sakic has a plan here and also can see the window we are about to walk into. Yes he can be frustratingly quite/patient at times, but this offseason is the time to make moves.

 

[RoyIsALegend]

I will spend some time in this thread after the trade deadline.

I mean, the season and making the playoffs should be the focus, but at least we will know the roster heading into the draft by 3 PM on deadline day. Perhaps better speculation right now is what we do by the TDL.

 

[AvsFan29]

Nice write up. Good work man.

The team looks like it will remain mostly the same, and most of the variables are in draft picks / prospect development. Luck is going to be a big factor in this teams level of success.

I could see Sakic try and make a play on a 2w or even a 2c this deadline, and maybe move Varly to a team looking to make a run with goaltending issues.

I don't see Ghetto getting another contract with this team.

Kaut seems to be developing well, and Makar looks amazing. If Bowers can make the jump to the 3c/4c, maybe Soderberg will get 2c time.

Grubauer really needs to pull it together. I'm sure we'll see Francouz get a game or 2 before the deadline. Sakic is going to want to see what he has in Francouz before the deadline.

 

[Bone Breaker]

I think Nemeth and Ghetto should be let walk, Varlamov moved at the TDL and with the Avs pick they should get that goalie prospect that I forgot his name. can't stay forever only spending bottom picks on some obscure european prospects and hope it works.

 

[AvsFanInMichigan]

with the Avs pick they should get that goalie prospect that I forgot his name.

Spencer Knight?

 

[the_fan]

If Avs miss out on Hughes or Kakko, I hope Sakic doesn't give another year to Jost and Kerfoot to see if they can drive that 2nd line, we'll be in for another very long season. Just make a trade or two, FA signing or what have you

 

[Perratrooper]

I will spend some time in this thread after the trade deadline.

I mean, the season and making the playoffs should be the focus, but at least we will know the roster heading into the draft by 3 PM on deadline day. Perhaps better speculation right now is what we do by the TDL.

Definitely agree the focus is playoffs, but we are having a cataclysmic stretch of hockey and sometimes I need to remind myself the future is bright and this is something I’ve been wanting to look into for a while now.

 

[Perratrooper]

If Avs miss out on Hughes or Kakko, I hope Sakic doesn't give another year to Jost and Kerfoot to see if they can drive that 2nd line, we'll be in for another very long season. Just make a trade or two, FA signing or what have you

I honestly believe Kerfoot could be a second line Center if he was given a scoring winger such as Stone. His play making ability is phenomenal, he’s got good speed, good hockey IQ, I personally think he has a good two way game and he has been good on draws. I think Jost will end up becoming a winger that floats between second and third line.

 

[AvsFan29]

I honestly believe Kerfoot could be a second line Center if he was given a scoring winger such as Stone. His play making ability is phenomenal, he’s got good speed, good hockey IQ, I personally think he has a good two way game and he has been good on draws. I think Jost will end up becoming a winger that floats between second and third line.

Yah I agree. He is great at getting possession, and finding open space. He has no one to pass to. Compher is the best player he's been on a line with, and he's not a top 6 offensive player.

 

[Perratrooper]

Yah I agree. He is great at getting possession, and finding open space. He has no one to pass to. Compher is the best player he's been on a line with, and he's not a top 6 offensive player.

Exactly. I love Compher, but he to me is a very good third liner who benefits from players who grind it out.

 

[AvsFan29]

Exactly. I love Compher, but he to me is a very good third liner who benefits from players who grind it out.

Yeah exactly. Building a second line is easily the most important thing to do. Our goalies are proven starters, they need to wake up.

 

[dahrougem2]

Idk who exactly the players will be, but the roster needs to look like this:

Landeskog - MacKinnon - Rantanen
XXX - XXX - XXX
Jost* - Soderberg - Compher
Calvert - Kamenev - Nieto

Zadorov - Barrie
Girard - Johnson
Cole - Makar/Timmins

XXX
Grubauer

Potential additions up front could be Kaut, Bowers, and/or the player selected with Ottawa's 1st round pick.

I think all of Andrighetto, Kerfoot, Wilson, Nemeth, Barberio, and Varlamov have to go. I'm not sold on Jost whatsoever, either, but I'm penciling him onto that 3rd line for now. Compher needs to be bumped down a line, he just isn't producing enough in a 2nd line role.

It's going to be very, very tough to get an entire 2nd line in one summer but it needs to happen.

 

[CobraAcesS]

Idk who exactly the players will be, but the roster needs to look like this:

Landeskog - MacKinnon - Rantanen
XXX - XXX - XXX
Jost* - Soderberg - Compher
Calvert - Kamenev - Nieto

Zadorov - Barrie
Girard - Johnson
Cole - Makar/Timmins

XXX
Grubauer

Potential additions up front could be Kaut, Bowers, and/or the player selected with Ottawa's 1st round pick.

I think all of Andrighetto, Kerfoot, Wilson, Nemeth, Barberio, and Varlamov have to go. I'm not sold on Jost whatsoever, either, but I'm penciling him onto that 3rd line for now. Compher needs to be bumped down a line, he just isn't producing enough in a 2nd line role.

It's going to be very, very tough to get an entire 2nd line in one summer but it needs to happen.

I think long term that is the case, but this off-season two of those forward spots need to be figured out. I'd love if they could fill one this season. Compher or Kerfoot can be the other one for a season with Kaut or Bowers taking a spot on the third line their first year or on an AHL top line.

I mean Mikko was a 40 point forward his first year. Lets not act like Bowers or Kaut should be on the second line in their first year. I think their two-way games, and smarts will make them adequate on a 3rd line though.

 

[the_fan]

I honestly believe Kerfoot could be a second line Center if he was given a scoring winger such as Stone. His play making ability is phenomenal, he’s got good speed, good hockey IQ, I personally think he has a good two way game and he has been good on draws. I think Jost will end up becoming a winger that floats between second and third line.

I guess if they do get someone like Stone they could try that, but they'll still have a somewhat weak 2nd line with Kerfoot, Stone, JTC or Jost. I would like something like Kerfoot, Hayes, Stone then JTC can solidify the 3rd line with Soderberg and Wilson or Calvert.

 

[Hornstar]

Rather have Kam pushing our 2nd like than kerfoot.

 

[cgf]

We'll be in a good spot if we can hit next season with a forward core that looked something like:

Gabe - Nate - Mikko
Kaut** - XXX - XXX
Nieto* - Soda - JTC**
Greer* - Kam - Jost**
Calvert*
Kerfoot**

XXX = OTT 1st / Trade / FA

...hopefully yielding some combination of: Hughes / Kakko || Tarasenko / Draisaitl / Radulov / Trochek / Seguin / Larkin / Hall / Zibanejad / Schenn || Stone / Panarin / Hayes / Silfverberg.

Although with many of those; we could make it work if we just got one...at least with Makar joining Barrie / Girard / Zadorov / Johnson / Cole behind them...and if we sort out what needs to happen in goal...

 

[RoyIsALegend]

Am I missing something with Kerfoot?

Everybody wants him gone. Why? 43 points last season, will have 40+ again this year. He doesn’t get to play with the likes of 9296 and has never had first PP unit time with them either.

Give him two proper linemates and his playmaking ability will shine. Yeah, he’s an RFA this year. So what? 40-50 point players are good second liners. He’s not the problem. Like a lot of our issues, he’s just being asked to carry inferior players and despite not being great at it, still puts up 40+ point seasons. Good playmaker to have in the lineup. Smart hockey player, too, and that has nothing to do with Harvard. He sees the ice very well.

I would have no problem rolling with:

Landeskog - MacKinnon - Rantanen
Kerfoot - JH/KK/KD/DZ - Stone
Jost - Soderberg - Compher
Nieto - Kamenev - Calvert

I could see Kerfoot signing a $16m/4y contract. $4m AAV would be very fair, IMO.

 

[henchman21]

Kerfoot is just one of those players that doesn't really add anything other than offense. He is poor defensively, soft, isn't a big driver ES... He can add offense and is great on the powerplay. There is value to that, but he isn't a guy you bend over backwards to keep or pay big money for. He is PAP that can play some center. I think if he is to stick around the better play is to go with a 2 year bridge deal or let arbitration play out. Move on afterwards.

 

[dahrougem2]

We'll be in a good spot if we can hit next season with a forward core that looked something like:

Gabe - Nate - Mikko
Jost** - XXX - XXX
Nieto* - Soda - JTC**
Greer* - Kam - Kaut**
Calvert*

XXX = OTT 1st / Trade / FA

...hopefully yielding some combination of: Hughes / Kakko || Tarasenko / Draisaitl / Radulov / Trochek / Seguin / Larkin / Hall / Zibanejad / Schenn || Stone / Panarin / Hayes / Silfverberg.

Although with many of those; we could make it work if we just got one...at least with Makar joining Barrie / Girard / Zadorov / Johnson / Cole behind them...and if we sort out what needs to happen in goal...

I don't want Tyson Jost anywhere near the top-6

 

[cgf]

I don't want Tyson Jost anywhere near the top-6

The ** are meant to denote an open competition between Jost, Kaut & Jimmothy for that spot...which Kerf would also be a part of if he's brought back. I mostly put them where I did to try & balance out the spacing.


That said, I'm not as disappointed as most by Jost and still think he deserves another offseason of working on his body & stride, and a chance to play off of a legit 1st liner, before I give up on him. Having Boeser next to him was a huge part of his college success because Boeser's gravity created enough space for Jost to be able to do work in at that level...and he's had none of that working for him in his NHL career. However, we have seen some flashes of it when he's played with our stars...albeit his skating isn't good enough & he's not strong enough to really thrive at the NHL level atm, even with guys who draw attention for him to play off of, but he's been able to show more flashes of the game that made him such a hot prospect before we rushed him.

Not saying that we can bank on him to fill a top 6 spot in any way, shape or form...but I do think that if we added 2 guys along the lines of the names I listed, we would be able to bank on one of Jost / Kaut / Jimmothy / Kerfoot filling that last top-6 spot well enough for us to win a series or two in the 2020 playoffs.