The Athletic - Boston 2019-20 NHL Season Preview: Boston Bruins

[Fenway]

2019-20 NHL Season Preview: Boston Bruins
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The Bruins are a little bit older than their two Atlantic Division rivals and that’s what puts them third in the pecking order. As one team’s best players move past their prime and another moves closer to it, the balance of power will begin to shift. It’s very close this year with Boston having a 29 percent chance at finishing second or third in the division, but for now Toronto ranks ahead.

That’s based on potential and as the season progresses the age adjustment lessens to nothing come playoff time. With no age adjustment, Boston would have the upper hand over Toronto, as it has over the past two seasons, and would be the favorite in a playoff series as is. Age effects bridge the gap in Toronto’s favor, which really puts into perspective how close the two teams likely are. We’re essentially splitting hairs.

That, plus the relative fragility of Boston’s skaters. When fully healthy the Bruins are the league’s second best team, but that isn’t often the case for this group and they’re close enough to Toronto that it may end up being the difference when it comes to home ice for the playoffs. The average expected games played of their starting lineup is the fourth lowest in the league. Toronto’s is average.

Though the battle between those two is the likeliest first round matchup in the league, a potential third straight tilt with the Leafs isn’t set in stone. In fact, it’s more likely the Bruins play one of the other 15 teams from the East as the probability of facing Toronto is “only” 30 percent. That’s insanely high at this time of the season (the highest non-Atlantic matchup is San Jose and Calgary at 16 percent), but obviously far from a guarantee. Combine that with the team’s chances of facing Tampa Bay at 22 percent, though, and the ugliness of the current playoff structure rears its head. Boston, a top three team in the league, is projected to face another top three team in the opening round of the playoffs over half the time. That ain’t right.

It’s why the team’s chances of winning it all end up slightly lower than both the Blues and Golden Knights. The path is very tough. May the best team win when the time comes, and the Bruins will do their part to be an extremely tough out thanks to a strong defense group and the best forward line in the league.

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What The Athletic Insider Thinks

Fluto Shinzawa: This has been the training camp of very little. The goalies have been locked down. There were no vacancies on defense. The only jobs up for grabs were at right wing, where Karson Kuhlman and Brett Ritchie could break camp as the primary second and third line options.

The preseason, in other words, has been about the familiar — a roster that fell one game short of the Stanley Cup. That has its positives and negatives. The 2019-20 Bruins, in theory, are a known commodity. The No. 1 line is among the game’s elite. David Krejci is coming off a career year. Charlie Coyle should be a good No. 3 center as a full-time Bruin instead of a deadline addition. Torey Krug, Charlie McAvoy, Brandon Carlo and Matt Grzelcyk are among the best within their defined duties. It’s hard to identify a better tandem than Tuukka Rask and Jaroslav Halak.

The drawback is how a below-the-belt loss could affect this year’s version, especially in the stretch from mid-October to Thanksgiving. The Bruins will be excited to start the new season. But Bruce Cassidy is fretting about how they will perform beyond the initial burst, when the task of getting up for opponents will not be as easy as it was in June.

This is the danger of bringing the band back together again. Almost all of them experienced devastation. It has the threat of carrying over.

31. Ottawa Senators
Projected points: 71.2 points
Playoff chances: 1 percent
Stanley Cup chances: 0.002 percent

30. Detroit Red Wings
Projected points: 73.7 points
Playoff chances: 2 percent
Stanley Cup chances: 0.01 percent

29. Los Angeles Kings
Projected points: 78.8 points
Playoff chances: 8 percent
Stanley Cup chances: 0.1 percent

28. Buffalo Sabres
Projected points: 80.2 points
Playoff chances: 7 percent
Stanley Cup chances: 0.1 percent

27. Edmonton Oilers
Projected points: 83.3 points
Playoff chances: 20 percent
Stanley Cup chances: 0.3 percent

26. New York Rangers
Projected points: 84.9 points
Playoff chances: 19 percent
Stanley Cup chances: 0.2 percent

25. Vancouver Canucks
Projected points: 84.9 points
Playoff chances: 25 percent
Stanley Cup chances: 0.4 percent

24. Arizona Coyotes
Projected points: 85.1 points
Playoff chances: 26 percent
Stanley Cup chances: 1 percent

23. Chicago Blackhawks
Projected points: 86.6 points
Playoff chances: 29 percent
Stanley Cup chances: 1 percent

22. Columbus Blue Jackets
Projected points: 87.3 points
Playoff chances: 27 percent
Stanley Cup chances: 1 percent

21. Anaheim Ducks
Projected points: 88.5 points
Playoff chances: 41 percent
Stanley Cup chances: 1 percent

20. New York Islanders
Projected points: 89.2 points
Playoff chances: 35 percent
Stanley Cup chances: 1 percent

19. Montreal Canadiens
Projected points: 90.1 points
Playoff chances: 40 percent
Stanley Cup chances: 1 percent

18. Philadelphia Flyers
Projected points: 91.5 points
Playoff chances: 46 percent
Stanley Cup chances: 1 percent

17. Winnipeg Jets
Projected points: 91.8 points
Playoff chances: 52 percent
Stanley Cup chances: 2 percent

16. Minnesota Wild
Projected points: 93.0 points
Playoff chances: 58 percent
Stanley Cup chances: 2 percent

15. New Jersey Devils
Projected points: 93.0 points
Playoff chances: 53 percent
Stanley Cup chances: 2 percent

14. Florida Panthers
Projected points: 93.3 points
Playoff chances: 55 percent
Stanley Cup chances: 2 percent

13. Colorado Avalanche
Projected points: 93.9 points
Playoff chances: 63 percent
Stanley Cup chances: 3 percent

12. San Jose Sharks
Projected points: 94.1 points
Playoff chances: 68 percent
Stanley Cup chances: 3 percent

11. Dallas Stars
Projected points: 95.9 points
Playoff chances: 72 percent
Stanley Cup chances: 3 percent

10. Calgary Flames
Projected points: 96.0 points
Playoff chances: 76 percent
Stanley Cup chances: 4 percent

9. Washington Capitals
Projected points: 96.7 points
Playoff chances: 70 percent
Stanley Cup chances: 4 percent

8. Pittsburgh Penguins
Projected points: 99.7 points
Playoff chances: 81 percent
Stanley Cup chances: 5 percent

7. Vegas Golden Knights
Projected points: 100.1 points
Playoff chances: 88 percent
Stanley Cup chances: 8 percent

6. Carolina Hurricanes
Projected points: 100.4 points
Playoff chances: 83 percent
Stanley Cup chances: 6 percent

5. Nashville Predators
Projected points: 100.6 points
Playoff chances: 87 percent
Stanley Cup chances: 7 percent

4. St. Louis Blues
Projected points: 101.4 points
Playoff chances: 89 percent
Stanley Cup chances: 8 percent

3. Boston Bruins
Projected points: 103.7 points
Playoff chances: 92 percent
Stanley Cup chances: 8 percent

2. Toronto Maple Leafs
Projected points: 105.2 points
Playoff chances: 94 percent
Stanley Cup chances: 11 percent

1. Tampa Bay Lightning
Projected points: 108.3 points
Playoff chances: 97 percent
Stanley Cup chances: 16 percent

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[LouJersey]

I have a better chance of coming between Kate Upton and Justin Verlander than the Leafs have to finish 2nd overall in the league.

 

[KnightofBoston]

I have a better chance of coming between Kate Upton and Justin Verlander than the Leafs have to finish 2nd overall in the league.

Eh, could happen. But 2nd highest percent chance to win the cup and your statement is very applicable. Regular season performance has become a giant illusion in the NHL. I could totally see a team like the leafs with a high powered offense and an ok defense win most of their games playing a different team every other night. Having to face one tough opponent for a 7 game series and then winning 4 of those over the course of 2 months is a different story.

This might be the year they break through to the second round though, hopefully not at our expense

 

[Fenway]

NHL Power Rankings: Separating optimism from the real...

1. Tampa Bay Lightning
2. Boston Bruins
3. Toronto Maple Leafs
4. Washington Capitals
5. Vegas Golden Knights

17. Montreal Canadiens

 

[Fenway]

Mike Milbury on the Bruins

TRANSCRIPT – 2019-20 NHL SEASON PREVIEW CONFERENCE CALL

Other Eastern (Conference) stories, the Bruins. I mean the talk here in Boston, where I reside, has been the bitter pill they swallowed in a Game 7 loss. I believe that the St. Louis Blues beat them fair and square, were the better team for most of the series, but they’re anxious to prove that they can get back to it.

This is a window that’s closing with David Krejci and Patrice Bergeron getting into their mid-30s. There’s not much time left, but they’ve added some depth and added some pretty good players in the system. There’s some good guys coming up. So, a team to be reckoned with.

 

[UncleRico]

I don’t know why, but I really dislike fluto as a writer. Him and Haggs make me furious that we are stuck with them as major beat writers for this team.

 

[Gee Wally]

Globe staff predictions for the 2019-20 NHL season - The Boston Globe

Tara Sullivan

Stanley Cup Finals
Tampa Bay over St. Louis — After years of winning the regular season only to fall flat in the playoffs, the Lightning put it all together and win the Cup, thwarting the Blues’ hopes for another magical end.


Matt Porter

Tampa Bay over Vegas — Lightning return the most talented squad in the league. Stunning first-round sweep last season makes this a no-excuses year, even in a top-heavy Atlantic. Vegas has enough firepower to outlast a Central challenger, but gets struck down by the Bolts.



Kevin Paul Dupont

Vegas over Tampa Bay — Knights get every whistle their way after hideous officiating sent them reeling out of 2019 playoffs. LV city fathers order The Strip to be paved with vulcanized rubber.


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New Bruins look a lot like the old Bruins - The Boston Globe

With Thursday night’s season opener in Dallas at their doorstep, the Bruins all but finalized their roster on Monday, and offseason pickups Par Lindholm and Brett Ritchie were the only new faces in the mix for Game 1 duty.

Such is the impact of a stable roster and a prior season’s trip to the Stanley Cup Final. Meet the new Bruins, same as the old Bruins.

The hopeful likes of Anders Bjork, Jack Studnicka, and Urho Vaakanainen, just to name three, all will start the season as Providence (AHL) Bruins. Hopeful Bostonians when camp opened just three weeks ago, they are now WannaBs until further notice.

“I talked to the [demoted] players a little bit,” said Cassidy. “And the feedback was mostly positive. There’s a few guys that are always disappointed, but I thought some of them had good answers and self-analyzed well — thought that they didn’t have good enough camps to stick around. So if we feel that, and the player feels that, I think it’s easier to move forward.”

Despite his immediate success 16 years ago, Bergeron is well aware of how disappointed kids can be when they don’t make the cut. He noted after practice on Monday that he makes sure all the kids have his phone number. If they want to talk, Bergy is eager to listen.

“Always something I try to do [for them], to be there, you know,” said the 34-year-old pivot/alternate captain. “I’ve always said, they have my cell phone, they can reach me any time.”

It’s not easy, noted Bergeron, to be a young kid in the league “and go through the process of being up and down” between the NHL and the minor pros.

 

[BostonBob]

I stopped taking ESPN's preview seriously once they said that Halak would have more wins than Rask.

https://www.espn.com/nhl/story/_/id/27700696/boston-bruins-2019-20-season-preview-stanley-cup-bust

 

[BigGoalBrad]

I'm actually starting to change my view of Toronto and Tampa.

I had thought the pieces around their high end talent were solid but not so sure.

I don't think Killorn-Maroon-Paquette is a good third line. Shattenkirk-Coburn 2nd pair might be a little old. OK goalie getting paid a ton starting next year. Yes they have 2 good top lines.

Heiman and Kadri were the unsung forwards on the leafs and neither will be in the lineup opening day. D is OK considering they aren't spending on it but I could see Anderson fall off a cliff.

Something tells me the 3 best regular season teams don't end up sharing a division. We have some issues but goalie and blueline aren't one of them. Backes means we can't add a really good forward and we stupidly rewarded him with a roster spot such a shame we can't add one more guy for that our 2 year window before DK/Tuukka need raises or new deals and it might be time to plan for the future a little.