Prospect Info: 2018 NHL Draft - Shall We Begin?

[Magua]

I also don't agree with Frost being a better prospect than Hayton. Yeah, this draft might be short on centers, but I think there's a reason he's in McKenzie's top 12 and top 5 on certain scouts' lists. His numbers are nearly identical to Frost's pre-draft and he's bigger and among the best 200' foot players in the draft. That's not to say that Frost won't turn out to be the better player, but I'm not quite sure Frost is the better prospect now. Looking at where they both were pre-draft and it's not close.

Aren't those statements contradictory? If it's because of hype, I don't know what to say. Someone like Robert Thomas had identical numbers too and went #20, which was even higher than he was ranked. I think he was better in his draft year than Hayton. Or at absolute worst, even. The team that drafts Hayton wishes he develops in D+1 like Thomas. Just because consensus rankings make it out as such, doesn't make it true. This is also a horrible center draft, which I think factors in at least slightly. Who are the next 3 best centers -- projectable centers -- after Kotkaniemi and Hayton? Lundestrom, McLeod, Wise, Dellandrea, Thomas, O'Brien? I mean most of them might not even be 1st rounders.

As for long-term potential between Hayton and Frost, Frost has even better hockey sense, better puck skills, high-end skating to Hayton's rather average skating, and truly elite level playmaking ability. Hayton is bigger and so gets that 2-way label, but Frost is pretty good there himself. I think Hayton's upside is indeed a 2-way 2C. Frost has the raw ability to be a top line player and game-changer. Of course you can say that Frost needed his D+1 year to prove things true (though I watched both plenty in their drafts years; Hayton was not really better than Frost to me; safer perhaps, certainly more buzz), but he had abilities Hayton does not and likely will not. I'll be surprised if he takes the leap Frost did, even if he obviously will improve. He likely isn't there at #14, wouldn't be a bad pick at #14 if he was, though there are better. But there's no way to me he's a better prospect than Frost. I wouldn't even contemplate trading him 1-for-1.

 

[bauer]

I don't think Couts's next contract will be too much of an issue. at some point you'd have to think Konecny (or another prospect) will replace him on PP1. he won't be putting up 70+ points without top PP. plus the chances of Giroux being a 100 point player in 2022 are pretty slim as well.

I think by the end of Couts contract, Patrick will have taken over as 1C and Frost 2C. Couts will likely finish his career here the way it started, as a shutdown 3C.

 

[baudib1]

I don't think Couts's next contract will be too much of an issue. at some point you'd have to think Konecny (or another prospect) will replace him on PP1. he won't be putting up 70+ points without top PP. plus the chances of Giroux being a 100 point player in 2022 are pretty slim as well.

I think by the end of Couts contract, Patrick will have taken over as 1C and Frost 2C. Couts will likely finish his career here the way it started, as a shutdown 3C.

This is crazy talk. Did you notice Coots scored 5 points in one playoff game on one leg? The things that make Coots great at hockey -- his hockey IQ, his vision, his passing, his size and strength -- aren't things that erode quickly. He'll be Patrice Bergeon for the next 8 years.

 

[Stizzle]

@Magua What do you think about Alec Regula?

 

[Magua]

@Magua What do you think about Alec Regula?

He's definitely a safer, low ceiling defensive d-man, but I'm a fan! I have him top 50. But that doesn't mean I'd take him at 50 either obviously. He's the type of player I'd feel great about taking as a 3rd rounder but........

Bouchard’s partner on the London Knights, Regula is curiously a right-handed defenseman who plays on the left side, given Bouchard is a righty as well. Despite the lack of high-end skating or puck skills you’d associate with a defenseman on his off-hand, it seemed no issue for Regula.

His role on the team was more of a safety net for Bouchard; someone who can play clean, responsible hockey when Bouchard pushes the pace. And that’s what he did. At 6’3 and change, he’s very good in his own end in puck battles and coverage using his body and stick equally. But despite his role, he’s not afraid to skate pucks up from time to time. I’d call his skating on the average side in top speed and quickness, but it seems improvable, and he’s young for his draft class and growing into his body. He doesn’t have stand out puck skill, but he’s a very competent first passer and doesn’t panic when he gets it. He makes a read, moves it successfully. I've seen him flash a little more offensively, and he's far from a zero and can work the cycle, but he's a defensive defenseman first and foremost. Above all, he’s just an intelligent player who sets you at ease and gives you consistent play. He looks like a fairly safe bet to be an NHL player.

 

[Flyerfan13]

He's definitely a safer, low ceiling defensive d-man, but I'm a fan! I have him top 50. But that doesn't mean I'd take him at 50 either obviously. He's the type of player I'd feel great about taking as a 3rd rounder but........

What do u think of riley stotts?

 

[Stizzle]

He's definitely a safer, low ceiling defensive d-man, but I'm a fan! I have him top 50. But that doesn't mean I'd take him at 50 either obviously. He's the type of player I'd feel great about taking as a 3rd rounder but........

 

[PuckLife]

Aren't those statements contradictory? If it's because of hype, I don't know what to say. Someone like Robert Thomas had identical numbers too and went #20, which was even higher than he was ranked. I think he was better in his draft year than Hayton. Or at absolute worst, even. The team that drafts Hayton wishes he develops in D+1 like Thomas. Just because consensus rankings make it out as such, doesn't make it true. This is also a horrible center draft, which I think factors in at least slightly. Who are the next 3 best centers -- projectable centers -- after Kotkaniemi and Hayton? Lundestrom, McLeod, Wise, Dellandrea, Thomas, O'Brien? I mean most of them might not even be 1st rounders.

As for long-term potential between Hayton and Frost, Frost has even better hockey sense, better puck skills, high-end skating to Hayton's rather average skating, and truly elite level playmaking ability. Hayton is bigger and so gets that 2-way label, but Frost is pretty good there himself. I think Hayton's upside is indeed a 2-way 2C. Frost has the raw ability to be a top line player and game-changer. Of course you can say that Frost needed his D+1 year to prove things true (though I watched both plenty in their drafts years; Hayton was not really better than Frost to me; safer perhaps, certainly more buzz), but he had abilities Hayton does not and likely will not. I'll be surprised if he takes the leap Frost did, even if he obviously will improve. He likely isn't there at #14, wouldn't be a bad pick at #14 if he was, though there are better. But there's no way to me he's a better prospect than Frost. I wouldn't even contemplate trading him 1-for-1.

Frost has always got top minutes and played with great wingers. He is thrilling to watch and has incredible finess. He lacks battle though, and was not nearly as effective in playoffs as Hayton. Remember Hayton just turned 18 this month. They are both great players and we are lucky to have them both in the Soo. The future is bright for both. We will see why the future holds. My moneys on Hayton tbh.

 

[Magua]

Frost has always got top minutes and played with great wingers. He is thrilling to watch and has incredible finess. He lacks battle though, and was not nearly as effective in playoffs as Hayton. Remember Hayton just turned 18 this month. They are both great players and we are lucky to have them both in the Soo. The future is bright for both. We will see why the future holds. My moneys on Hayton tbh.

He played with Senyshyn almost exclusively, and a good deal with MacIntyre, an overager and now ECHLer. Those are far from great wingers in my mind; if anything, despite Senyshyn's scoring ability, he held Frost back and didn't play his style game (read: he's dumb and straight line), like Katchouk this year. The Soo, especially with Speers in, spread their scoring minutes around last year. I'd actually say they ran two pretty equal minutes PPs, unlike this year's stacked PP1, which Hayton never left. In fact, the entire Soo team underperformed last year versus them firing on all cylinders this season. I'm very very confident Frost got similar minutes in his draft year to Hayton, who played with guys like Kopacka pretty regularly. In the playoffs, where he played his best hockey, he played a ton with Raddysh too who isn't half-bad.

I know you're a Hayton fan and a Soo fan and go to different team forums talking about him (he's your guy, I'm not being critical; I have my guys), but I have watched a good amount of Soo hockey the last 2 years. I loved Frost before we even drafted him. Frost lacks battle because he's 20 pounds and 2 inches shorter than Hayton; he's still a diligent defensive player and is hard to touch anyway. I can count on one hand the number of hard contact I've seen Frost take because he's smart and elusive. It's not his game; Hayton is a heavier player more dependent on below the dot physical work to create offense. Hayton has good skill; he's a good player now and in the future. But Frost has the ability to dissect a defense off the rush and in the o-zone with the puck that Hayton just doesn't -- he plays faster and reads plays faster with the puck-- which gives him much greater offensive upside. He has special qualities. I'll take my chances with him. If we somehow got both, wonderful. Some of the best hockey Hayton played this year was in December-January on Frost's LW during the WJC.

 

[Alex91]

If we draft Hayton in the first round, I wonder if Frost chances to be 3LW next year increases.

Future (2020ish)

Frost-Patrick-Konecny
Giroux-Couts-Allison
Lindblom-Hayton-Voracek
Rubston-Laczynski-Ratcliffe

Provy-Myers
Sanheim-Ghost
Morin-Hagg

Hart
Sandstorm

 

[bauer]

This is crazy talk. Did you notice Coots scored 5 points in one playoff game on one leg? The things that make Coots great at hockey -- his hockey IQ, his vision, his passing, his size and strength -- aren't things that erode quickly. He'll be Patrice Bergeon for the next 8 years.

we're talking 4-5 years from now. Couts being our 3C in 2022 is more a comment to who's coming up behind him than him no longer being good, which I never said. if Couts is still our 1C in 2022 then there's a problem. Patrick is more skilled than Couts, that isn't a debate. he should be our 1C in a few years. Couts eventually going back to 3C is a good thing. it means Patrick and Frost have met expectations and are having great careers. if they're not our top 2 centers 5 years from now then something went wrong. it means one likely didn't meet expectations.

 

[Stizzle]

Someone (not me) finally made a video of the mystery man, JBD.

 

[Magua]

Someone (not me) finally made a video of the mystery man, JBD.

JBD-Tychonick top pair. As if I don't have enough to watch trying to get all my shit together.

You're welcome.

What do u think of riley stotts?

Courtesy of Hitmen expert @denominator:

1) Riley Stotts is a player. He gets overlooked because his production in Swift Current was pathetic, but he was seeing really limited ice on an already stacked team. He moved to Calgary, got put top line centre and top powerplay, and basically went point per game on one of the worst teams in the league. He's a good skater and has a hell of a shot. I think he's going to be a steal in the 4th or 5th round, and could be one of those guys that in four years people wonder how so many teams pass on him.

He's an interesting mid-rounder for sure. I've watched him once, and this echoed my thoughts. Hockey Prospect called him out for inconsistencies or being a little low compete, and I can see that too. Maybe I'll watch him again. His skating and puck skills are quality though. Could buy him being one of those low key players who figures it out.

 

[PuckLife]

He played with Senyshyn almost exclusively, and a good deal with MacIntyre, an overager and now ECHLer. Those are far from great wingers in my mind; if anything, despite Senyshyn's scoring ability, he held Frost back and didn't play his style game (read: he's dumb and straight line), like Katchouk this year. The Soo, especially with Speers in, spread their scoring minutes around last year. I'd actually say they ran two pretty equal minutes PPs, unlike this year's stacked PP1, which Hayton never left. In fact, the entire Soo team underperformed last year versus them firing on all cylinders this season. I'm very very confident Frost got similar minutes in his draft year to Hayton, who played with guys like Kopacka pretty regularly. In the playoffs, where he played his best hockey, he played a ton with Raddysh too who isn't half-bad.

I know you're a Hayton fan and a Soo fan and go to different team forums talking about him (he's your guy, I'm not being critical; I have my guys), but I have watched a good amount of Soo hockey the last 2 years. I loved Frost before we even drafted him. Frost lacks battle because he's 20 pounds and 2 inches shorter than Hayton; he's still a diligent defensive player and is hard to touch anyway. I can count on one hand the number of hard contact I've seen Frost take because he's smart and elusive. It's not his game; Hayton is a heavier player more dependent on below the dot physical work to create offense. Hayton has good skill; he's a good player now and in the future. But Frost has the ability to dissect a defense off the rush and in the o-zone with the puck that Hayton just doesn't -- he plays faster and reads plays faster with the puck-- which gives him much greater offensive upside. He has special qualities. I'll take my chances with him. If we somehow got both, wonderful. Some of the best hockey Hayton played this year was in December-January on Frost's LW during the WJC.

You make some good points and I don’t disagree that Frost is a special player. If you think Kopaka > Senyshyn, I completely disagree. If you think Howdeshell > McIntyre wrong again.

We clearly prefer different style players. You are right, I am a Hayton fan. Based on multiple comments you’ve made, you are not. All good.

 

[Hockeypete49]

With our two 1's I hope we can two out of these four, Farabee, Sandin, Noel and Miller with a slice of Kotkaniemi on the side.

 

[Flyerfan13]

JBD-Tychonick top pair. As if I don't have enough to watch trying to get all my **** together.

You're welcome.





Courtesy of Hitmen expert @denominator:



He's an interesting mid-rounder for sure. I've watched him once, and this echoed my thoughts. Hockey Prospect called him out for inconsistencies or being a little low compete, and I can see that too. Maybe I'll watch him again. His skating and puck skills are quality though. Could buy him being one of those low key players who figures it out.

Thanks forgot denominator was a hit men fan

 

[Magua]

You make some good points and I don’t disagree that Frost is a special player. If you think Kopaka > Senyshyn, I completely disagree. If you think Howdeshell > McIntyre wrong again.

He spent a sizable amount of time on LW too with other top 6 players. And he did play with Raddysh. And the entire team was better than last year, from offense to defense, so it's not a direct 1-for-1. Senyshyn is a selfish player who doesn't play anything resembling Soo hockey; he's hard to play with. Kopacka was still a strong performer all year. The idea of making linemates better is a thing too. I don't even care about scoring though because he didn't get the best usage and has more pro qualities than some others. I have Akil Thomas 25 spots lower than Hayton. I had Thomas above Suzuki last year.

We clearly prefer different style players. You are right, I am a Hayton fan. Based on multiple comments you’ve made, you are not. All good.

I routinely overvalue smart, 2-way centers. Anyone here can confirm that. It has nothing to do with style. I think there's a difference between being a "Hayton fan" -- which I never said I wasn't; I wouldn't have in my mid-late teens range and call him a good player and the 2nd best center in the draft if I thought he was bad -- and coming to a Flyers forum saying he's better than Frost and the next Bergeron. I don't think it's crazy that some would say, "Hold on a second....." I can see we have exhausted this conversation, so all I can say is: we'll see what happens! He in all likelihood won't be there to pick; if he is, I'm confident we'll get a useful NHL player.

 

[deadhead]

Frost is going to play center, period. You don't take a great two way center and waste his best skills at wing.
Given the Flyers have Couts and Patrick and Vorobyev, they can protect Frost from matchups against big centers who can skate and might squeeze him a bit.

But when you have a playmaker with speed, who can control play, you don't put him on wing where he doesn't get to use his speed as much and doesn't control the puck and thus the pace of the game. The combination of speed and vision will allow him to draw defenders to him and find the open man.

 

[Alex91]

Frost is going to play center, period. You don't take a great two way center and waste his best skills at wing.
Given the Flyers have Couts and Patrick and Vorobyev, they can protect Frost from matchups against big centers who can skate and might squeeze him a bit.

But when you have a playmaker with speed, who can control play, you don't put him on wing where he doesn't get to use his speed as much and doesn't control the puck and thus the pace of the game. The combination of speed and vision will allow him to draw defenders to him and find the open man.

I think Frost could have a easy transition to wing and be as successful.

If they draft Hayton and he is turns out to be a shutdown C, I think moving Frost and Rubstov to the wing early on like they did with Giroux would be smart. I think your going to see a lot of smaller Cs around the league move to wing (like G) as it seems like their is starting to be more big talented traditional top 6 Cs again. Patrick and Couts are perfect examples

 

[Tripod]

Frost is going to play center, period. You don't take a great two way center and waste his best skills at wing.
Given the Flyers have Couts and Patrick and Vorobyev, they can protect Frost from matchups against big centers who can skate and might squeeze him a bit.

But when you have a playmaker with speed, who can control play, you don't put him on wing where he doesn't get to use his speed as much and doesn't control the puck and thus the pace of the game. The combination of speed and vision will allow him to draw defenders to him and find the open man.

I know. Patrick Kane is just wasting away on the wing.

 

[PuckLife]

He spent a sizable amount of time on LW too with other top 6 players. And he did play with Raddysh. And the entire team was better than last year, from offense to defense, so it's not a direct 1-for-1. Senyshyn is a selfish player who doesn't play anything resembling Soo hockey; he's hard to play with. Kopacka was still a strong performer all year. The idea of making linemates better is a thing too. I don't even care about scoring though because he didn't get the best usage and has more pro qualities than some others. I have Akil Thomas 25 spots lower than Hayton. I had Thomas above Suzuki last year.



I routinely overvalue smart, 2-way centers. Anyone here can confirm that. It has nothing to do with style. I think there's a difference between being a "Hayton fan" -- which I never said I wasn't; I wouldn't have in my mid-late teens range and call him a good player and the 2nd best center in the draft if I thought he was bad -- and coming to a Flyers forum saying he's better than Frost and the next Bergeron. I don't think it's crazy that some would say, "Hold on a second....." I can see we have exhausted this conversation, so all I can say is: we'll see what happens! He in all likelihood won't be there to pick; if he is, I'm confident we'll get a useful NHL player.

I never said he’s better than Frost. I think Hayton might have a better career in the long run, but did not say he is better that Frost. I have raved about Frost, tho I was a little disappointed about his playoff performance. Frost is a Center all day any day and will be a good one for you. I don’t see Hayton ending up a Flyer, so debate over.

 

[Magua]

I know. Patrick Kane is just wasting away on the wing.

I view Frost's ceiling as Point/Trocheck like. They're both OK similarly sized centers. I don't agree with deadhead that a playmaker can't play wing because, well, duh. But Frost is so good from the center of the ice controlling play. I'm sure he could figure wing out too, if need be, short or long term. But he's not a wing masquerading as a junior center either. He's a real center, and if we didn't get gifted Patrick, we'd be hailing him as our hope for future 1C.

Fwiw regarding the other Soo center, he played wing next to Frost, not the opposite. He's the player I'd move to LW first. Even Mark Edwards in the Black Book made note that he's not a lock for center in his mind. His skill-set would play fine to wing; offensively, I think it would play even better as an off-puck scorer/support/below the dot type. I can't imagine anyone we'd get that would move Frost to wing, unless they wanted to stack a line.

 

[wasup]

If we draft Hayton in the first round, I wonder if Frost chances to be 3LW next year increases.

Future (2020ish)

Frost-Patrick-Konecny
Giroux-Couts-Allison
Lindblom-Hayton-Voracek
Rubston-Laczynski-Ratcliffe

Provy-Myers
Sanheim-Ghost
Morin-Hagg

Hart
Sandstorm

I'm not completely sure but i think i like this

 

[Magua]

@Stizzle -- I watched the WJAC finals game, focusing on Bernard-Docker and Tychonick (along with a few USA guys whose shifts I skimmed). Canada West got killed in possession despite a runaway victory. It was kind of not a great sample viewing. Both played a lot in their own end (they weren't gapping up well either); neither really showcased their offensive ability beyond the odd play. Tychonick was better in the 1st; JBD in the 2nd; both similar in the 3rd. JBD was definitely playing a little more conservative than his partner. Sometimes they weren't on the same page in changing spots or going for loose pucks. Oh well.

At the very least, JBD looked smart and smooth and a similar caliber prospect to Tychonick (HP has them 38 and 36 respectively). JBD does seem a little smoother with his skating and puck handling, and based on his highlight video more adept at trailing rushes and finding soft spots (different league though) -- but he's a better goal scorer it appears anyway, though they both have good shots. Same person made one for Tychonick too fwiw:

 

[Stizzle]

@Stizzle -- I watched the WJAC finals game, focusing on Bernard-Docker and Tychonick (along with a few USA guys whose shifts I skimmed). Canada West got killed in possession despite a runaway victory. It was kind of not a great sample viewing. Both played a lot in their own end (they weren't gapping up well either); neither really showcased their offensive ability beyond the odd play. Tychonick was better in the 1st; JBD in the 2nd; both similar in the 3rd. JBD was definitely playing a little more conservative than his partner. Sometimes they weren't on the same page in changing spots or going for loose pucks. Oh well.

At the very least, JBD looked smart and smooth and a similar caliber prospect to Tychonick (HP has them 38 and 36 respectively). JBD does seem a little smoother with his skating and puck handling, and based on his highlight video more adept at trailing rushes and finding soft spots (different league though) -- but he's a better goal scorer it appears anyway, though they both have good shots. Same person made one for Tychonick too fwiw:

I just watched the first period. You're right, he seems smooth and smart. He had one puck retrieval with an instant long outlet pass in the 1st period that was buttery goodness. I'll finish watching tomorrow.