2018 NHL Draft: Quantity vs. Quality?

[Ghost of jas]

Where was Shea Weber drafted? What about PK Subban? What about Erik Karlsson? Faulk? Kucherov? Gaudreau?

Just because we haven't hit on those picks in the past, doesn't mean we won't. Law of averages and whatnot. We have great management. Great scouting. Where did we draft Lundqvist? Skjei? Kreider? Buchnevich? Late first or late rounds.

I have no problem making a small trade if someone falls drastically and the opportunity is there for us to move up. We have enough picks. But you need quantity. You can find quality by having quantity.

Or you can fall on your face in the same manner. I’m in favor of taking risks. If this team likes a particular player, go get him.

 

[Gardner McKay]

Or you can fall on your face in the same manner. I’m in favor of taking risks. If this team likes a particular player, go get him.

You can take risks without decimating your supply of draft picks. Why do you think we ended up with Duclair and Buchnevich in one draft? We took risks because when you only have three 3rd rounders, you don't have a choice. However...

You bet your ass with 3 first round picks that our management team is going to be swinging for the damn fences with our two 2nd's and two 3rds.

 

[Ghost of jas]

They target top end talent and did so because they had enough picks. When those didn't pan out they still ended up with two 2nd line forwards because of the quantity.

Again, if Gorton does that with this draft, he’s wasted everyone’s time.

 

[Gardner McKay]

Again, if Gorton does that with this draft, he’s wasted everyone’s time.

I can't tell if you're being serious or not at this point.

 

[Roo Returns]

It's not really fair to compare 2004 to now because the league is so different.

Goalies are also valued differently, as a currency they're more like NFL RBs (yes, I know Barkley with the Giants, and I endorsed the pick, but generally speaking). What was the last time an impact goalie was drafted in the first round? Josh Gibson hasn't been that good. Zach Fucale was sent to the ECHL and while he's still young, unless he has a eureka moment, he's not the next Patrick Roy as some toted him.

There are a few themes we go over on this board repeatedly and it's not a knock on anyone it's just we always talk about them. So two of them that are relevant to this discussion:

-Rangers scouting in 2004 had Maloney and Renney playing very big roles. Those guys were not great talent evaluators.

-Many including myself endorsed the Montoya pick in 2004. Rangers at that point had totally blown it up ,more so than this team. And the goalie of the future Dan Blackburn had been rushed, and pretty much at that point everyone knew he had a career ending injury. Lundqvist was just "some Swedish kid with a cool name" no one knew who he would become. People weren't expecting him to pretty much be the best Swedish goalie since Pelle Lindbergh. We we just hoping he could be Oilers Tommy Salo, before the 2002 Belarus Olympic game killed his confidence. Montoya was a nasty prospect who played very well in the AHL, and is still in the league to this day, so he's certainly not a bust.

 

[Ghost of jas]

I can't tell if you're being serious or not at this point.

Really? My expectations for this rebuild apparently seem to be higher than others. I expect that Gorton’s goal is a lot higher than getting two middle six forwards out of this draft. If it’s not, then what was the point?

 

[SML2]

I’d rather take risks on getting high end talent. From my vantage point, the only thing that makes this rebuild become successful is breaking the mold of prior approaches. If you going to do this, go big. Having extra chances at getting middling talent seems like a waste of time.

I know we've both been around here a long time. I see your point of view but I don't share it. 2004 was a long time ago. This all boils down to who your scouts are and if they go do the work or if they're sitting around scouting on youtube watching the 10 best plays of a guy's life and thinking that's who you're getting. A scouting staff should not be a country club where all your buddies meet to keep getting a paycheck when they are too old to play. So I looked up the current staff:

Director of Professional Scouting Kevin Maxwell
Director, European Scouting Nickolai Bobrov
Scouts Larry Bernard, Jeff Beukeboom, Rich Brown, Brendon Clark, Daniel Dore, Eric Doyle, Mikko Eloranta, Steve Eminger, Jan Gajdosik, Kim Gellert, Oto Hascak, Jamie Herrington, Rick Kehoe, Patric Kjellberg, Gilles Leger, Vladimir Lutchenko, Justin Sather, Peter Stephan

Kind of a weird mix. Some names I recognize but quite a few I don't. Either way, if you have a bunch of asshats making the picks, it's not going to end well. The track record in not good. Hopefully that changes here.

 

[Machinehead]

Then why now trade away all of your first rounders and double up on the second and third?

Trading a late first rounder for two seconds should be common practice.

 

[Ghost of jas]

I know we've both been around here a long time. I see your point of view but I don't share it. 2004 was a long time ago. This all boils down to who your scouts are and if they go do the work or if they're sitting around scouting on youtube watching the 10 best plays of a guy's life and thinking that's who you're getting. A scouting staff should not be a country club where all your buddies meet to keep getting a paycheck when they are too old to play. So I looked up the current staff:

Director of Professional Scouting Kevin Maxwell
Director, European Scouting Nickolai Bobrov
Scouts Larry Bernard, Jeff Beukeboom, Rich Brown, Brendon Clark, Daniel Dore, Eric Doyle, Mikko Eloranta, Steve Eminger, Jan Gajdosik, Kim Gellert, Oto Hascak, Jamie Herrington, Rick Kehoe, Patric Kjellberg, Gilles Leger, Vladimir Lutchenko, Justin Sather, Peter Stephan

Kind of a weird mix. Some names I recognize but quite a few I don't. Either way, if you have a bunch of asshats making the picks, it's not going to end well. The track record in not good. Hopefully that changes here.

The reality is, though, that not only have McKenzie and Brooks made reference to it, but, Gorton himself has said as much, that the Ranger approach is not going to be quantity over quality. Gorton added a bunch of assets for the purpose of targeting particular players in this draft. Rangers don’t win the lottery, and Brooks immediately writes that the Rangers will attempt to move up. That flies in the face what people here are hoping the Rangers will do. I’ve simply said I’m fine with that approach, and given Rangers past history, it’s probably the prudent approach. The Rangers tried the quantity approach in 2004. In 2005, they went up and got Marc Staal. Anybody remember what Atlanta did in return with the extra pick to move down?

 

[FireGerardGallant]

The reality is, though, that not only have McKenzie and Brooks made reference to it, but, Gorton himself has said as much, that the Ranger approach is not going to be quantity over quality. Gorton added a bunch of assets for the purpose of targeting particular players in this draft. Rangers don’t win the lottery, and Brooks immediately writes that the Rangers will attempt to move up. That flies in the face what people here are hoping the Rangers will do. I’ve simply said I’m fine with that approach, and given Rangers past history, it’s probably the prudent approach. The Rangers tried the quantity approach in 2004. In 2005, they went up and got Marc Staal. Anybody remember what Atlanta did in return with the extra pick to move down?

Take Ondrej Pavelec

 

[Machinehead]

The reality is, though, that not only have McKenzie and Brooks made reference to it, but, Gorton himself has said as much, that the Ranger approach is not going to be quantity over quality. Gorton added a bunch of assets for the purpose of targeting particular players in this draft. Rangers don’t win the lottery, and Brooks immediately writes that the Rangers will attempt to move up. That flies in the face what people here are hoping the Rangers will do. I’ve simply said I’m fine with that approach, and given Rangers past history, it’s probably the prudent approach. The Rangers tried the quantity approach in 2004. In 2005, they went up and got Marc Staal. Anybody remember what Atlanta did in return with the extra pick to move down?

Truly franchise-altering.

 

[GAGLine]

I think we'll both trade up and trade down. Maybe we trade one of Boston/Tampa 1sts and Devil's 2nd to move up in the 1st round. Then trade the other 1st for an early 2nd and a 3rd, then trade 2 3rds for a 2nd.

It will all depend on what players are available and which ones the scouts want, but I have no doubt that Gorton is going to be wheelin and dealin.

 

[Ghost of jas]

Take Ondrej Pavelec

Okay, I couldn’t remember who the 2nd round pick was. Not sure if I would have wasted a 2nd on a goalie, but they got better value out of the 2nd than the goalie. The Rangers traded up and got a bedrock of their defense for 5 years, before injuries destroyed his career. I’ll take that over Alex Bourret’s career.

 

[JimmyG89]

This is one of the worst drafts to argue quality. The draft is insanely deep. Guys being taken in the 2nd would normally be 1st round guys.

Last year was the year to move up. We attempted to and did move up.

We're not talking about adding tons of late picks, but adding picks in rounds 2 and 3, where players slip because of "size" and have a ton of ability are available. Tapping into that, when we've been out of that game for a while too, is important.

The fact that we f***ed up on the draft in 2014 and 2015 (sans Shesty) is why we're at this point. Need swings to take the shots we need to take.

 

[Ghost of jas]

Truly franchise-altering.

It was for the first five years of his career.

 

[Ghost of jas]

I think we'll both trade up and trade down. Maybe we trade one of Boston/Tampa 1sts and Devil's 2nd to move up in the 1st round. Then trade the other 1st for an early 2nd and a 3rd, then trade 2 3rds for a 2nd.

It will all depend on what players are available and which ones the scouts want, but I have no doubt that Gorton is going to be wheelin and dealin.

Bingo. He’s pretty much said as much.

 

[Machinehead]

It was for the first five years of his career.

Careful, you might draft Lias Andersson reaching like that.

 

[eco's bones]

I would give up mulitple draft picks including all our 1st's this year for the 1OA. I think Dahlin would be very much worth it. A defenseman you can build your team around and if you believe that Shesterkin is the real deal having major players at both these positions you'll have a great base to work from--especially with all the other young players like Chytil, Andersson, Skjei, Howden, Hajek, Pionk, Georgiev etc. I would do two firsts including the 9OA for the 2OA (Svechnikov) and the 9OA and both 2nd's for the 3OA (Zadina).

Failing that I think players between 4 and 10 are even enough that I would stay at 9OA and take from what shakes out. I would try to move up into the teens then with our second 1st rounder using either of our 2nd rounders to do so.

 

[FireGerardGallant]

Okay, I couldn’t remember who the 2nd round pick was. Not sure if I would have wasted a 2nd on a goalie, but they got better value out of the 2nd than the goalie. The Rangers traded up and got a bedrock of their defense for 5 years, before injuries destroyed his career. I’ll take that over Alex Bourret’s career.

Yes but the thing is moving up does not always guarantee you get the better player. There are busts all over the top round. The draft is basically a lottery and the more lottery tickets you have the better chance you have of one succeeding

 

[Ghost of jas]

Careful, you might draft Lias Andersson reaching like that.

Someone in that first round that you think was a better choice than Staal at 12? Granted, Letang went in the third(?) that year, but that was a different era for Dmen.

 

[Ghost of jas]

Yes but the thing is moving up does not always guarantee you get the better player. There are busts all over the top round. The draft is basically a lottery and the more lottery tickets you have the better chance you have of one succeeding

But, having extra picks doesn’t guarantee you having better success either.

 

[FireGerardGallant]

But, having extra picks doesn’t guarantee you having better success either.

That is true, but there are no guarantees in the draft outside of like the top 2. However, you increase your odds by having more picks to work with

 

[Ghost of jas]

Careful, you might draft Lias Andersson reaching like that.

I’m staying out of the Andersson wars. He wasn’t my choice, but Vegas broke my heart when they took Cody Glass.

 

[Ghost of jas]

That is true, but there are no guarantees in the draft outside of like the top 2. However, you increase your odds by having more picks to work with

You also can increase you failure rate. Having a bunch of picks is nice, but people forget they’re assets. Part of the reason GMs accumulate them is to have ammo to make trades. And, from everything I’ve read, that is going to Gorton’s approach.

 

[Machinehead]

Someone in that first round that you think was a better choice than Staal at 12? Granted, Letang went in the third(?) that year, but that was a different era for Dmen.

It's not about a better choice than Staal.

It's that you keep referencing trading up for Staal as if it's some paramount moment in Rangers history, ignoring the statistics that say trading up is foolish.