The Athletic - Boston 2018-19 NHL Season Preview: Boston Bruins

[Fenway]

By Dom Luszczyszyn Sep 24, 2018
Read this to learn more about how these projections work and this to understand the uncertainty each projection carries.

2018-19 NHL Season Preview: Boston Bruins

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That comes with some unintended perks, however. As it turns out, the Bruins actually have an ever so slightly higher chance at winning the Stanley Cup over the second-ranked Atlantic team, despite a lower chance of making the playoffs and it’s due to a higher chance of not being on the Atlantic side of the Eastern Conference bracket. Isn’t the playoff format grand for even making this probability quirk possible? Sigh.

Boston likely finishes somewhere between first and fourth in the Atlantic this year, with anything lower happening on very rare occasions. That’s to be expected with the gigantic rift in the Atlantic between the elite outfits and the bottom feeders. The team’s chances of finishing anywhere from first to third are all very close and all very likely which speaks to the fact that the three teams in question are tightly clustered at the top. That the Bruins land here doesn’t mean they’re guaranteed to be a worse team than Tampa Bay or Toronto, only that there is a higher probability that the team finishes lower in the standings.

When it comes to why they’re likely to finish lower, it comes down to a few things: a top heavy approach at forward, a slightly worrying mix on defence, and goaltending that ranks lower than the five teams ranked ahead of them.

What Other Models Say

Emmanuel Perry, Corsica: 107.5 points, 1st
Rob Pizzola, Semi-Professional Sports Bettor: 102.9 points, 3rd
Andy MacNeil, Vegas Stats & Information Network: 101.7 points, 3rd
Over/Under Point Total, Bodog (Opening Line): 102.5 points, 6th
Over/Under Point Total, Pinnacle (Current): 101.5 points, T-6th

Aside from Perry who is clearly drinking some Bruins Kool-aid, everyone’s pretty much in agreement about where the Bruins stand going into next season with an average projection in the range of 101-to-103 points. It’s enough to be taken seriously as a contender
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[wintersej]

I thought it was a fair take. Top 5 team, with maybe more chances for things to go wrong due to age than the teams above.

I REALLY like it when analytics folks aren't afraid to admit there are holes in their model:

"Krejci is a guy who’s very underrated by my model as a pure passer – his shot assist rate is in the 100th percentile over the last two seasons while his shot rate is in the bottom 15 percent – and a player who gains the zone effectively."

Basically, pointing out the Krejci is elite at putting people in a position to get a shot off...and that maybe he has not been surrounded by much help...nor does he shoot enough himself.

Like with most stats guys, his model hates Carlo because he provides very little to nothing on 2/3rds of the ice surface. Which I don't think is unfair. He has all the tools. Big year for Carlo.

And FWIW, they projecting Frederic as #3C, but I think that is Fluto's influence.

 

[Tampbear]

Interesting we are ranked 3rd in the Atlantic but 5th overall.

 

[The Hockey Tonk Man]

curious about the 5 teams ahead with better goaltending? I think the B's duo is as good as it's been in a while

 

[DKH]

If you go back last year and read the reports I pretty much nailed it- little low actually but my overview was a hole in one.

I’d take any over 102 points

Tampa 115
Boston 105
Toronto 103

Boston comes out of East

Boston is deep, balanced, skilled with excellent coaching staff

Bergeron and Krejci need to play 130 games between them to hit 105

 

[JP Nolan]

No matter what the opening roster is, it is not pretty. Certainly not close to a CUP threat.

The off season for me was a big fail. More wasted money to add to Backes. Moore was a big un necessary move. Almost 3 million dollars....What a freaking waste of money....Holy cow.
The first line is back, surprise, surprise accept Bergie is a year older and another year wasted not going for it hard as his prime years dwindle........

Halak.......LOL....I mean. Seriously ?

Nothing was done to address the hole next to KREJCI that has been here since the new regime took over almost 4 years ago. We have several, hopes, wings and prayer players like Bjork, Donato, JFK, Frederick, blah blah blah........I do expect Donato to be a player so this regime could catch another big break with a Chiarelli draft pick helping the current team......Or Bjork...

Cant say much for Zboril or Louzan if Moore was given a five year deal......I was hoping one of those guys would be on the big club.

Senyshen is not ready and going back down and losing hope there...., Nobody really wowed at camp, as you hope always someone may emerge......Lauko does look like he could be a nice player for this GM who desperately needs something to happen for him in a way where we enhance the Bruins roster...At least as much as the Providence one. After four years we have Charlie, DeBrusk and Carlo.......Not much else from management.

I expect a good team but a team that has no chance of actually getting out of the first or second round as is currently built.

This GM is much like Sinden.....Accept Without the great trades Sinden made,......Be a good team, have some great players, fool them into spending their money...But never ever go out and get the final pieces necessary to actually win the cup. Let the other GMs do that.

I have never seen an organization do so little with so much.......Although Providence should be good.

 

[AngryMilkcrates]

No matter what the opening roster is, it is not pretty. Certainly not close to a CUP threat.

The off season for me was a big fail. More wasted money to add to Backes. Moore was a big un necessary move. Almost 3 million dollars....What a freaking waste of money....Holy cow.
The first line is back, surprise, surprise accept Bergie is a year older and another year wasted not going for it hard as his prime years dwindle........

Halak.......LOL....I mean. Seriously ?

Nothing was done to address the hole next to KREJCI that has been here since the new regime took over almost 4 years ago. We have several, hopes, wings and prayer players like Bjork, Donato, JFK, Frederick, blah blah blah........I do expect Donato to be a player so this regime could catch another big break with a Chiarelli draft pick helping the current team......Or Bjork...

Cant say much for Zboril or Louzan if Moore was given a five year deal......I was hoping one of those guys would be on the big club.

Senyshen is not ready and going back down and losing hope there...., Nobody really wowed at camp, as you hope always someone may emerge......Lauko does look like he could be a nice player for this GM who desperately needs something to happen for him in a way where we enhance the Bruins roster...At least as much as the Providence one. After four years we have Charlie, DeBrusk and Carlo.......Not much else from management.

I expect a good team but a team that has no chance of actually getting out of the first or second round as is currently built.

This GM is much like Sinden.....Accept Without the great trades Sinden made,......Be a good team, have some great players, fool them into spending their money...But never ever go out and get the final pieces necessary to actually win the cup. Let the other GMs do that.

I have never seen an organization do so little with so much.......Although Providence should be good.

-In the very limited view of Halak we have seen in the preseason he looked fantastic, carried the team by far. Nothing to make superlatives over, but its very encouraging.
-Moore was not a big cost for possible large gain given that Krug will price himself out of a Bruins jersey. We now have a stopgap until the 4 kids on D are ready to take over. The positives for our D prospects were not good after the end of the season. Their play in the past few weeks, however, has flipped the script on that.
-Sweeney went after Tavares, Kovalchuk, Nash returning, and who knows what else to fix the 2nd line winger hole. Saying he did "nothing" is a misrepresentation.
-The B's success this season is the same as last years, highly dependant on the performance of our kids. The only reason we have any expectations what-so-ever this season is because they went above and beyond last season. Look at the posts and media a year ago, Boston was supposed to be out of the playoffs again in the "retooling" with Florida supplanting them. Look how the season turned out for both teams.
-If you've never seen an org do so little with so much your obviously not looking. Spend a day researching the histories of the Vancouver Canucks, Toronto Maple Leafs, the San Jose Sharks, and here is the big one because you seem to be advocating the same "go big or go home" style as......the New York Rangers.

Your disappointed with one cup for the core of talent we have, I get that. But there are players retiring that have never won a cup and are locks for the Hall of Fame. Having a good team does not guarantee you a cup. There is a whole lot more to surviving the playoffs than just talent. The Bruins have been one of the most successful franchises in the NHL in the last 40 years. Success being measured in wins. We could have easily had 3-4 more cups since the late 80s, but thems the breaks. That's sports.

The statement that Don in any way GMs like Harry Sinden is an intentional inflamatory statement. Having lived through those years of frustration and rage I will simply ask you to bullet point clear facts that prove your asertion that "This GM is much like Sinden".

 

[BruinDust]

No matter what the opening roster is, it is not pretty. Certainly not close to a CUP threat.

How pretty was Washington's roster last year?

Because they lost 48 goals from the previous year in Johnasson and Williams.

Also lost not one, not two, but three D-men who played between 20-22 mins. a night for their new clubs this year. Essentially three Top 4 D-men based on mins.

And still went on to win a cup.

Rosters on paper don't mean much.

 

[JP Nolan]

How pretty was Washington's roster last year?

Because they lost 48 goals from the previous year in Johnasson and Williams.

Also lost not one, not two, but three D-men who played between 20-22 mins. a night for their new clubs this year. Essentially three Top 4 D-men based on mins.

And still went on to win a cup.

Rosters on paper don't mean much.

If we had OV and Holtby......I would say you might have a point. Problem is we dont.

 

[BruinDust]

If we had OV and Holtby......I would say you might have a point. Problem is we dont.

I don't understand how Sweeney hasn't traded for Ovechkin yet. I mean, he's been GM now for 3 years. You would of thought he'd be able to pull of an OV deal by now. What a lousy GM.

 

[TheReal13Linseman]

I don't understand how Sweeney hasn't traded for Ovechkin yet. I mean, he's been GM now for 3 years. You would of thought he'd be able to pull of an OV deal by now. What a lousy GM.

Serious question: Has he been what you would call a "good GM" to this point, all things considered?

 

[JP Nolan]

Serious question: Has he been what you would call a "good GM" to this point, all things considered?

I don't understand how Sweeney hasn't traded for Ovechkin yet. I mean, he's been GM now for 3 years. You would of thought he'd be able to pull of an OV deal by now. What a lousy GM.

First off i never mentioned Sweeney, But You are finally getting it.....i would say OR a player who is considered a top line player in his prime. But we do get Stemniak and Winnik....Boy, how sad that those two are even considered for this team....as sad as sad gets.

 

[GloryDaze4877]

Serious question: Has he been what you would call a "good GM" to this point, all things considered?

I would say yes.

It appears that he was able to rebuild on the fly, missing the playoffs (narrowly) one year, making it the next, and winning a round this past year.

The next test will be continuing to incorporate youth into the veteran mix and building off the success they had last year.

 

[Rubber Biscuit]

Serious question: Has he been what you would call a "good GM" to this point, all things considered?

I know this wasn't directed at me but I would probably say so.

The team is positioned well to contend now and in the future. There's been some mistakes and he's got room to improve, for sure. On the whole, I'm happy with the job he's done so far

 

[GloryDaze4877]

I am curious about what, “a slightly worrying mix on defense” is supposed to mean?

I’m worried about getting production from the 4-9 guys, but I’m not worried about the mix on D at all.

It bugs the shit out of me when an analyst makes some vague statement like that and expects people to just take him at his word.

 

[BruinDust]

Serious question: Has he been what you would call a "good GM" to this point, all things considered?

Overall, yes I think he's done a good job. Not perfect, but he's been good. His first-year was a bit rough IMO, but he's been pretty darn solid since the end of Year 1. I like the direction this franchise is headed.

 

[JRull86]

Serious question: Has he been what you would call a "good GM" to this point, all things considered?

Absolutely.

He's more tha done his job since taking over. Now it's time for him and the team to take the next step.

Think about where they were after 2015. Terrible contracts, old roster, cap issues. Now look at where they are now.

He's made some poor deals, but you could say that about every GM in the league.

The future of this team looked bleak as hell when he took over, and in 3 seasons, they've gone from no playoffs, to a 100+ point team with some solid youth being infused. Future is bright.

 

[Tampbear]

I like the direction that the team is headed in, I don't like thinking about it pretty much any of his trades and not that many of his FA signings but I do think he has the team headed in the right direction. I don't think we needed a change when he took over but has continued a similar style to Chiarelli but with overall better drafting and developing (was improving as Chiarelli left). Sweeney is a smart guy that surrounds himself with people that can make up for his shortcomings and that is what I want most in a GM as opposed to a guy that thinks he knows how to do it all on his own. I thought we were going to need a D after trading Hamilton but he got lucky with Carlo being ready so quick and Mcavoy coming in the next year looking like our future #1. I think the center situation is an issue right now that could play out just fine depending on how the young guys develop but at least if they don't he has collected a lot of valuable pieces so if he has to he can make a move, I just hope if it comes to that he makes the right move.

 

[Krupp]

Sweeney's doing his best - sometimes, particularly in his first few years overseeing things, it could terrify you. Like, "WTF is he doing??! STOP HIM FROM MAKING TRADES!"

But overall I think the Sweenius is trying to get the team prepped for the future without Chara or Bergeron. It's coming sooner than we'd like, unfortunately, but that's life. The kids being brought in have shown real ability to play the game in all three zones; that takes maturity and good coaching, of which this team has in Cassidy.

Are they cup winners right now? Maybe not. But considering what they went through last year - all the injuries, the walking wounded, the ridiculous suspensions, and they STILL managed to not only make the playoffs but throw the Leafs out of the bracket?

I think it's unfair to say that this team is declining. This team is definitely retooling on the go, and so far it hasn't sucked like I thought it would. That speaks more about the team in a good light than a bad light. I think as long as key players can remain healthy this year, we'll see another playoff run.

How far that goes depends on the young men and how quickly they learn and adapt and get better. Last year was pretty good, all things considered. JP is right, this team doens't have an OV or a Crosby. They're not built like that. Bergeron and Marchy and Pasta are their biggest stars, but this team is built to pull the rope together.

I mean, if talent alone is what wins a cup, I doubt 2011 would have turned out the way it did. Because on paper, Vancouver was supposed to kill the B's, and so were the Lightning, if i'm not mistaken

 

[Glove Malfunction]

First off i never mentioned Sweeney, But You are finally getting it.....i would say OR a player who is considered a top line player in his prime. But we do get Stemniak and Winnik....Boy, how sad that those two are even considered for this team....as sad as sad gets.

Just because you never mentioned his name doesn't mean you weren't referring directly to him. Give us at least some credit.

 

[Mick Riddleton]

Sweeney is not perfect but it doing pretty darn good. If you wanna see bad, feel free to buy a Sens or Habs jersey, thier GMs are excellent

 

[KrejciMVP]

Sweeney is not perfect but it doing pretty darn good. If you wanna see bad, feel free to buy a Sens or Habs jersey, thier GMs are excellent

How many more years of pretty darn good does he get until we should expect some sort of playoff success?

 

[Rubber Biscuit]

How many more years of pretty darn good does he get until we should expect some sort of playoff success?

Assuming "playoff success" means winning the whole thing? 2 years, maybe 3?

Assuming it means improving on what they've done so far, I think we're all expecting it now.

If you were expecting them to win the Cup at this time last year (or any other year under his leadership), you were being unrealistic

Why are you so unwilling to give him any sort of credit until he wins the Cup?

 

[Mick Riddleton]

How many more years of pretty darn good does he get until we should expect some sort of playoff success?

So I am supposed to give you a number now. Would it be better to cheer for teams that wallow in krap, year after year. I am behind him and the organization and see growth and a direction. Glass half full - glass half empty for some, not me. Then there is the crowd that also complains about the fingerprints on the glass. There is no pleasing them.

 

[GlenFeatherstone]

Everyone on Toronto’s jock makes me puke. Overrated. Any team that has Jake Gardiner in the conversation for their best defenseman doesn’t worry me one bit.