Prospect Info: 2017-18 Flyers Prospects - Top 7 GOALIES, #4

[FLYguy3911]

Right now? No.

 

[LegionOfDoom91]

Would Lyon fetch a 3rd in a trade?

I doubt it. He would have to show something at the NHL level to fetch that imo. He's an older average sized goalie who just had a so-so year in the AHL after signing as an UDFA.

 

[Ghosts Beer]

This is even worse. I'd rate Lyon as a significant favorite to not even be in the freaking organization this time next year! Yet somehow people think he's a more valuable prospect than than Ustimenko? No way.

Maybe Ustimenko flames out, or maybe he's the next Bob. I don't know. But the Flyers really like him. The Russian national team likes him enough to be on the U-18 team, then the Senior B national team, then the 4-Nations tournament team.

This really shouldn't be close.

Well said.

 

[Rebels57]

After almost everyone including me assumed Weal was done as a prospect at age 24, I'm not ready to write off Lyon's chances just yet.

The Flyers also thought Tomek was a good value 3rd round pick leaving guys like Nicholas Roy on the table, so hopefully Ustimenko is more like Sandstrom than Tomek.

Well said.

People voting for Ustimenko JUST due to draft status is silly.

 

[Rebels57]

Lyon, albeit older, did have a better save percentage than quite a few "legit prospects," such as Thatcher Demko and Linus Ullmark.

 

[deadhead]

We have a soon to be 25 year old -- who belatedly began college in his age 21 season -- with a strong collegiate career in the ECAC. Although Lyon does have one year of pro hockey to judge, which wasn't especially remarkable for good or bad. Not the most gifted natural athlete but smart and dedicated. Will he be here after this season? Or will he be some throw-in to a trade? His path doesn't seem clear, though he will have his chance this season to battle the player with the higher pedigree in Stolarz, coming off his own up-and-down year.

Then we have the pure upside 18 year old who the Flyers effusively love and think is a steal. All the stats are there, but he has to continue to develop overseas and is a long way off. He's under no effect from any roster squeeze and can develop as needed, but there's a lot of projection.

I'm having deja vu of the Vecchione debates

I think the difference is that a backup goalie has more value than a 4th line center.
Lyon's upside is probably that of a decent backup goalie, but that has real value (think of some of the losers we've had in that role ).

The Russian goalie, no different than Tomek, what level is the MHL? USHL? Let him at least win a 30 game a season role in the KHL, like Sandstrom in the SHL.

 

[FLYguy3911]

Forget 30 wins. Score 100 points and then we'll talk.

 

[Ghosts Beer]

The Russian goalie, no different than Tomek, what level is the MHL? USHL? Let him at least win a 30 game a season role in the KHL, like Sandstrom in the SHL.

So Ustimenko, an 80th overall pick who led the MHL with a .938 save percentage in his 17 y/o season and has played for Team Russia in multiple international tournaments needs to play 30 games in the KHL before he can be considered a better prospect than an almost 25 y/o undrafted goalie who has one professional season as an average AHL second stringer?

I'm not seeing what Lyon has done to deserve that kind of deference.

And as to whoever compared Lyon at 24 to Weal at 24, I don't get that at all. Weal at 22 led his team to an AHL championship, winning playoff MVP and leading scorer, and was an All-Star during the season; at 24 he was leading the AHL in scoring when he got called up. He sure had a lot more professional success by that age than Lyon.

 

[Magua]

It's fair to think Lyon could be an NHL goalie. I'm not writing him off because who the hell knows. But Weal and Tomek are both sort of unique cases, and I'm not sure I even get the comparison.

Weal steamrolled every level at every age, but he got the tweener tag because of his size and inability to make the jump. Then he had that year of sitting which sapped his confidence and didn't allow any sort of rhythm. He looked like a tweener in his 2015-2016 games. I thought the same. But his situation isn't that similar to Lyon's to me. He's also a forward, which makes this more confusing. They're the same age fwiw.

Tomek was a consensus top 70-100 pick, so the Flyers didn't reach on him or anything. You could actually argue they did reach on Ustimenko, who only Central Scouting had ranked. Apparently the Flyers would've drafted him even higher. Our Russian scouting, under Hoodikoff, has been exemplary too, so I think they have earned extra trust in that area. Most people have no issue voting in Rubtsov (hey, didn't he only play MHL?) or Ratcliffe or Frost or countless others they haven't seen over some AHL guys they have, so I'm not sure why Ustimenko is where the line is drawn. Back to Tomek, his development has been a disaster, but that doesn't change his draft year perception. He's basically a non-entity until proven otherwise, but he's still only entering the USHL in his age 20 season. Lyon played in the USHL at age 20. If the point is to say some prospects can not pan out.....ok? I think voting Ustimenko is just as much about Lyon too.

Let him at least win a 30 game a season role in the KHL, like Sandstrom in the SHL.

I'll add this to the list.

 

[Hurricane28]

Ustimenko's pedigree is being the Rinaldo pick

 

[deadhead]

My point is until the Russian goalie makes it to the KHL, and at least establishes himself as a legitimate young backup goalie, it's all wild projection, no different than if Tomek has a good year in the USHL. That won't make Tomek a real prospect, but a year in the AHL in 2018-19, where he shows he belongs, would, even just as a backup goalie.

 

[FLYguy3911]

 

[Fragmuffin]

I was happy with us drafting Tomek and had him ranked quite high before the injuries started. BUmmer things turned out this way, but there is still time for him to pull of a good career. AN uphill battle for sure, but his last few games after the long brake were quite encouraging.
Lyon I think is a career AHL goalie while I have not seen the RUssians play a single minute.

SO i'm gonna go with Tomek here, as a sign of faith in the guy.

 

[Curufinwe]

Ustimenko's pedigree is being the Rinaldo pick

I really wanted them to take an easy to follow prospect with that pick, but that photo of Ustimenko is pretty damn cool. If he's on the Phantoms by 20-21 then that would be a good return.

 

[Ghosts Beer]

Kiriil Kaczynski?

 

[Tripod]

They look like a proud and happy bunch.

 

[Alex91]

I was happy with us drafting Tomek and had him ranked quite high before the injuries started. BUmmer things turned out this way, but there is still time for him to pull of a good career. AN uphill battle for sure, but his last few games after the long brake were quite encouraging.
Lyon I think is a career AHL goalie while I have not seen the RUssians play a single minute.

SO i'm gonna go with Tomek here, as a sign of faith in the guy.

What is Tomek path plan now?

Will he be a starter for Waterloo next year?

 

[LegionOfDoom91]

What is Tomek path plan now?

Will he be a starter for Waterloo next year?

Play in Waterloo next year & head back to a different college in 2018-2019 to finish out his remaining NCAA eligibility.

He should be. If he can't you can pretty much write him off as a prospect.

 

[Fragmuffin]

All of their last years goalies have new clubs for this season... I'd say he's a surefire starter!

 

[Alex91]

How much NCAA does he have left? And when do we lose his rights?

 

[LegionOfDoom91]

He has two years left of college eligibility. The Flyers have until August 15th, 2020 to sign him.

 

[FLYguy3911]

His first year might have even qualified as a redshirt year.

 

[LegionOfDoom91]

His first year might have even qualified as a redshirt year.

This is where I got the two years from. I wasn't really sure if he redshirted or not that first year but I guess he didn't. So I guess this year he's sitting out with be take that redshirt like in football.

After a year with Waterloo, Tomek could either sign with Philadelphia or choose another college. He would have two years of collegiate eligibility remaining.

http://www.grandforksherald.com/sports/und-hockey/4260457-goalie-matej-tomek-return-junior-hockey

 

[Rick Deckard]

Does anyone know where Ustimenko will play this season?

 

[dats81]

Time is running out for Lyon. He has accomplished nothing noteworthy so far at the pro level and he is competing with younger prospects who were actually drafted for a reason and have more time to develop. Don't get me wrong... Alex Lyon is an o.k. AHL goalie and may still become an NHL backup which is a nice career path for undrafted prospects but I don't see him getting much better.

Voted Ustimenko because of the little but promising updates that we get out of Russia. Getting all that recognition for Team Russia seems a good indicator how national coaching staff values his potential.