Blue Jays GDT: (2015 v30) Next: vs Cle| Tue, Sept 1| 7pm ET/4pm PT | Anderson vs Estrada

[Canada4Gold]

No...

People are so incredibly reactionary.

Acquires Revere -> Yay we got out leadoff hitter
Doesn't get a hit in first 4 games -> Sit him, he's terrible
Goes on a mini hot streak, Tulo cold -> Put Revere at leadoff
Gets leadoff, doesn't get hits in a couple games -> I liked Revere but he's terrible offensively

It's crazy how someone's opinion can be affected by 2 or 3 games worth of results and completely ignore everything else in history.

 

[Maplebeasts]

Damn. Assuming Osuna doesn't blow the save, EE's streak is done. Not bad for him though to match a player like Olerud in that statistic.

 

[p.l.f.]

Pompey leads off tomorrow
Well you never know lol

 

[KarmaPolice]

Come on Indians I want to give EE another AB?

lol
Nah, hit streak doesn't mean that much to me. It has a "neato" factor, but that's it.

Come on, Osuna!

 

[BertCorbeau]

Buck why did you have to say that?

 

[TootooTrain]

I don't mind the Lindor fistpumping, but he opens himself up to retaliatory fist pumping once he doesn't score. I would have liked one of the Jays to give Lindor a nice fist pump when they got the 3rd out and Lindor didn't score.

He might want to save it for if they actually manage to tie the game. He made a mistake trying to get to 2nd, ball beat him by a mile, and he made a lucky/good slide to avoid the out and still didn't score. Probably would have been smart to calm down.

If he did that against KC or Arizona it would be a plunk'able offense.

 

[Maplebeasts]

I was a proponent of revere but he stinks offensively.

Yeah the guy hitting over .300 in his last 15 has been terrible offensively.

 

[Longshot]

People are so incredibly reactionary.

Acquires Revere -> Yay we got out leadoff hitter
Doesn't get a hit in first 4 games -> Sit him, he's terrible
Goes on a mini hot streak, Tulo cold -> Put Revere at leadoff
Gets leadoff, doesn't get hits in a couple games -> I liked Revere but he's terrible offensively

It's crazy how someone's opinion can be affected by 2 or 3 games worth of results and completely ignore everything else in history.

Two or three games????

Don't you mean two or three at bats?

 

[Canada4Gold]

Osuna Matata, Osuna Matata, Osuna Matata

 

[KarmaPolice]

Buck why did you have to say that?

He's a knob. Wish we had better broadcasters for the Jays.

Can't walk him. Throw a strike.

 

[BertCorbeau]

Pat and Buck doing their best to jinx it

 

[Del Preston]

Two or three games????

Don't you mean two or three at bats?

Two or three swings.

 

[Muston Atthews]

Buck why did you have to say that?

He does it to say "See! Jinx's aren't real!"

 

[TootooTrain]

Osuna really struggling for grip in this sweatbox.

 

[Divine]

Lucky, he swung at ball 4.

 

[Canada4Gold]

Two or three games????

Don't you mean two or three at bats?

true dat, Revere got 2 infield singles yesterday

 

[Del Preston]

He's a knob. Wish we had better broadcasters for the Jays.

Don Orsillo is awesome. NESN isn't bringing him back for some reason, Sportsnet should hire him.

 

[p.l.f.]

**** you gomes

 

[Muston Atthews]

We're not getting that outside pitch with Navarro there

 

[KarmaPolice]

Osuna really struggling for grip in this sweatbox.

They need to fully legalize the use of pine tar. I have no problem with its use, and I think anyone with a decent knowledge of baseball would feel the same.

Indians pitchers got that strike all night. Sanchez didn't get that call, either... Hmmm...

 

[Donald McRonald]

nail biter

 

[BertCorbeau]

Osuna getting a little squeezed

 

[Epictetus]

His xFIP is 1.57 points above his ERA. He's never had a season in his career (excluding this season) where he has outperformed his xFIP. Even with this season included, he still only outperforms his career xFIP by 0.03 runs. There's absolutely no way he's going to outperform his xFIP by 1.5+ runs over a large sample.

I don't really know why you are using xFIP in this scenario. It's not a straightforward situation as saying Estrada has a .319 ERA and his xFIP is .476 so he's due for regression. It's purely predictive based on his HR\FB which is down this year, but gives no credit to Estrada limiting HR's better this year.

He's always had a great change-up, and he's using it less (not more) this season. He's thrown a change-up 28.6% of the time this season, while he threw the same pitch 30% of the time last season (with nearly identical pitch value).

My bad, I read the wrong line (total) and not 2015 total on this one.

the low BABIP this year works against him. That should eventually regress to the norm. Not that he can't affect it a little, but it's .234 which isn't sustainable.

The league norm for BABIP changes yearly, it's not really a set number. But yeah, I wouldn't bet the .234 BABIP is sustainable either. Other than when he first came in the league, Estrada generally does well keeping a low BABIP which was more so my point.

His HR/FB rate this year is well below his career rate. If we regress it to the league average his decent FIP becomes a horrible almost 5 run xFIP, ans Estrada usually gives up more than league average iirc?

This is true, and Kadri (poster above) also brought up a similar point. The problem is that this gives like no credit to Estrada's talent\adjustments in limiting HR\FB which is problematic. It's better than ERA but there's still room for error.

He's having a lucky year. I really hope the Jays aren't the ones to pay him for the lucky year he's having and end up regretting it. He shouldn't make as much as he's going to end up making.

I think he'll get overpaid, but some team will give him a shot. He's shown he's capable of that, at least.

 

[Canada4Gold]

3-0 count. Guess that means game over pretty much now with Osuna on the mound, 2 K's in 6 pitches coming

 

[Loosie]

Damn....Bosox had two on and one out with Ortiz batting. Mookie Betts gets caught stealing then Ortiz strikes out.