Prospect Info: 2015 Annual Prospect Poll #10

[The Midnight Burrito]

Last Poll: Free Berg! Play Free berg, whoo!


Each poll will be open for 48 hours. If it's not close after 24 hours, I'll call it. If it is, it'll go the full 48. In the event of a tie after 48 hours, a 24-hour runoff will be held. The winner will get the open spot; the loser will go back into the pool, not get the next-lowest rank. The poll will go up to #25. Players are in the poll on the basis of HF's prospect criteria. Essentially, skaters with less than 65 games before the season of their 24th birthday, or goalies with less than 45 games before the season of their 24th birthday, are considered prospects. There are some nuances with respect to older-signed players, which I believe only applies to Matt Bailey this year.

Vote on players using whatever criteria you like. This isn't the readiness poll or the talent poll or the most-likely-to-be-best poll, it's just a survey of who we as Duck fans like.


Prior years results:
2004-05 Lockout II Edition
2010 Edition
2011 Edition
2012 Edition
2013 Lockout III Edition
2014 Edition
(if anyone can find other years, let me know and I'll add them)

year | rank | Prospect | year | rank | Prospect | year | rank | Prospect | change | year | rank | Prospect | change | year | rank | Prospect | change | year | rank | prospect | change 2005 | 1 | Getzlaf | 2010 | 1 | Sbisa | 2011 | 1 | Etem | +5 | 2012 | 1 | Palmieri | +2 | 2013 | 1 | Gibson | +6 | 2014 | 1 | Gibson |0
| 2 | Bryzgalov || 2 | Fowler || 2 | Holland | +2 || 2 | Vatanen | +2 || 2 | Lindholm | +3 || 2 | Vatanen | +5
| 3 | Perry || 3 | Gardiner || 3 | Palmieri | +2 || 3 | Etem | -2 || 3 | Silfverberg |n/a|| 3 | Karlsson | +7
| 4 | Smid || 4 | Holland || 4 | Vatanen | +3 || 4 | Holland | -2 || 4 | Etem | -1 || 4 | Ritchie |n/a
| 5 | Holmqvist || 5 | Palmieri || 5 | REDACTED | +11 || 5 | Lindholm |n/a|| 5 | Rakell | +3 || 5 | Andersen | +7
| 6 | Brent || 6 | Etem || 6 | DSP | +7 || 6 | DSP |0|| 6 | Holland | -2 || 6 | Rakell | -1
| 7 | Kunitz || 7 | Vatanen || 7 | Gibson |n/a|| 7 | Gibson |0|| 7 | Vatanen | -5 || 7 | Kerdiles | +1
| 8 | Popovic || 8 | Clark || 8 | Rakell |n/a|| 8 | Rakell |0|| 8 | Kerdiles | +1 || 8 | Theodore | +3
| 9 | Smirnov || 9 | Mitera || 9 | Maroon |n/a|| 9 | Kerdiles |n/a|| 9 | Noesen |n/a|| 9 | Noesen |0
| 10 | S. O'Brien || 10 | Bonino || 10 | Bonino |0|| 10 | Karlsson | +4 || 10 | Karlsson |0|| 10 | Sorensen | +4
| 11 | Saunders || 11 | Deschamps || 11 | Clark | -3 || 11 | Andersen |n/a|| 11 | Theodore |n/a|| 11 | Pettersson |n/a
| 12 | Smith || 12 | McMillan || 12 | Friberg |n/a|| 12 | Wagner | +6 || 12 | Andersen | -1 || T12 | Manson | +13
| 13 | Glenncross || 13 | DSP || 13 | Deschamps | -2 || 13 | Friberg | -1 || 13 | Smith-Pelly | -7 || T12 | Montour |n/a
| 14 | Korsunov || 14 | Newton || 14 | Karlsson |n/a|| 14 | Clark | -3 || 14 | Sorensen |n/a|| 14 | Friberg | +5
| 15 | Konopka || 15 | Bobkov || 15 | Bobkov |0|| 15 | Welinski | +5 || 15 | Roy | +2 || 15 | Wagner | +2
| 16 | Martensson || 16 | REDACTED || 16 | Macenauer |n/a|| 16 | Maroon | -7 || 16 | Welinski | -1 || 16 | Roy | -1
| 17 | Foster || 17 | Pielmeier || 17 | Cramarossa |n/a|| 17 | Roy |n/a|| 17 | Wagner | -5 || 17 | Welinski | -1
| 18 | Penner || 18 | Sharp || 18 | Wagner |n/a|| 18 | Bobkov | -3 || 18 | Laganiere |n/a|| 18 | Laganiere |0
| 19 | Klubertanz || 19 | Heed || 19 | Schofield |n/a|| 19 | Lind | +2 || 19 | Friberg | -6 || 19 | Thompson | +1
| 20 | Parenteau || 20 | Manson || 20 | Welinski |n/a|| 20 | Cramarossa | -3 || 20 | Thompson |n/a|| 20 | Kase |n/a
| 21 | Perrault || 21 |N/A|| 21 | Lind |n/a|| 21 | A. O'Brien |n/a|| 21 | Sarault |n/a|| 21 | Bobkov | +2
| 22 |N/A|| 22 |N/A|| 22 | Newton | -8 || 22 | Heed | +3 || 22 | Cramarossa | -2 || 22 | Blacker |n/a
| 23 |N/A|| 23 |N/A|| 23 | Carle |n/a|| 23 | Caputi |n/a|| 23 | Bobkov | -5 || 23 | Megna |n/a
| 24 |N/A|| 24 |N/A|| 24 | Perlini |n/a|| 24 | Cooper |n/a|| 24 |N/A||| 24 | Besse |n/a
| 25 |N/A|| 25 |N/A|| 25 | Heed | -6 || 25 | Manson |NR|| 25 |N/A||| 25 | Aaltonen |n/a

Notable Graduates/Departures:
Aaltonen
Andersen
Blacker
Bobkov
Karlsson
Laganiere
Rakell
Vatanen

This year's results:

Rank | Prospect | yearly change | overall change
1| Gibson |n/a| +7 (since 2011)
2| Theodore | +6 | +9 (since 2013)
3| Ritchie | +1 | +1 (since 2014)
4| Montour | +8 | +8 (since 2014)
5| Manson | +7 | +15 (since forever)
6| Noesen | +3 | +3 (since 2013)
7| Kerdiles |n/a| +2 (since 2012)
8| Larsson |n/a|n/a
9| Friberg | +5 | +3 (since 2011)

Click to read more...

 

[Duck Off]

Close one between Nattinen or Pettersson. I'll go with Nattinen again.

 

[Ducksforcup]

Org. seems really high on Pettersson and the Ducks certainly know their defenseman.

Going to go with him this time around.

 

[Goose of Reason]

Gonna go with Pettersson this time and Nattinen next I think, although it is close. I just noticed Aaltonen's name on the graduated/departures list, why is that? Have him and the organization cut ties? Did I miss something?

 

[Ducks Nation*]

Nattinen

 

[The Midnight Burrito]

Gonna go with Pettersson this time and Nattinen next I think, although it is close. I just noticed Aaltonen's name on the graduated/departures list, why is that? Have him and the organization cut ties? Did I miss something?

Off the top of my head I think he was one of the ones not qualified. I'm petty sure we signed him to an elc awhile back.

 

[AngelDuck]

Pettersson
Roy
Nattinen

 

[Opak]

Gonna go with Pettersson this time and Nattinen next I think, although it is close. I just noticed Aaltonen's name on the graduated/departures list, why is that? Have him and the organization cut ties? Did I miss something?

We never offered him a contract and we should have done so, if we wanted to hang on to his rights. Aaltonen is no longer our prospect and he's pretty much an UFA in North America now.

Selected Roy. IMO he's a better prospect than Nättinen or Pettersson, despite of the threat of him possibly not signing with the Ducks.

 

[Nurmagomedov]

Not sure how either Pettersson or Nattinen are better than Wagner at this point.

 

[duxfan1101]

Not sure how either Pettersson or Nattinen are better than Wagner at this point.

This isn't based off of who is better right now. Then again, I think every voter on here has a different idea of what we're voting on, so who knows.

 

[Ducks Nation*]

Not sure how either Pettersson or Nattinen are better than Wagner at this point.

Because they are better prospects and it's a prospect ranking poll?

 

[Nurmagomedov]

This isn't based off of who is better right now. Then again, I think every voter on here has a different idea of what we're voting on, so who knows.

I meant a better prospect. Wagner will in all likelyhood be an NHL'er next season, those guys may play in 2nd tier European leagues.

 

[Ducks Nation*]

I meant a better prospect. Wagner will in all likelyhood be an NHL'er next season, those guys may play in 2nd tier European leagues.

I think Pettersson and Nattinen are both better prospects than Wagner

 

[Opak]

I think Pettersson and Nattinen are both better prospects than Wagner

Then that will be your opinion. Let other people think otherwise.

The truth is that we have no idea what these kids will eventually become. For all we know, we could have another Beleskey or Bonino in Wagner and the other guys might bust. Then again, it could be that Nättinen and Pettersson will become better players than Wagner. There isn't an exact science to this, everybody has their own ways of ranking prospects.

 

[Nurmagomedov]

Then that will be your opinion. Let other people think otherwise.

The truth is that we have no idea what these kids will eventually become. For all we know, we could have another Beleskey or Bonino in Wagner and the other guys might bust. Then again, it could be that Nättinen and Pettersson will become better players than Wagner. There isn't an exact science to this, everybody has their own ways of ranking prospects.

True that. I guess i put more weight on the long road those guys have ahead of them compared to Wagner and the high likelyhood they don't make it.

 

[Ducks Nation*]

True that. I guess i put more weight on the long road those guys have ahead of them compared to Wagner and the high likelyhood they don't make it.

Ritchie (too lazy) & Theodore (no defense) & Gibson (injury prone) might not make it

 

[Nurmagomedov]

Ritchie (too lazy) & Theodore (no defense) & Gibson (injury prone) might not make it

Ofcourse. But the likelyhood is much less given they're a lot further on the path

 

[Sojourn]

Not sure how either Pettersson or Nattinen are better than Wagner at this point.

I meant a better prospect. Wagner will in all likelyhood be an NHL'er next season, those guys may play in 2nd tier European leagues.

Wagner is 24 years old, and at the same age as them was playing in, what? The EJHL? Unless I'm mistaken, that's a Tier 3 Junior A league. So, we're looking at about a 4-5 year difference in age and development here, and we're realistically looking at Wagner to fill a 4th line energy/grinder role, which isn't a particularly stable role for an NHL player. I like Wagner, but he has bottom six written all over him, and that's realistically his ceiling. Sure, he could be in the NHL next season, and he could end up in the European leagues a year or two after that.

Age is a big factor in prospect ratings. Pettersson and Nattinen are better prospects because they are younger and have more potential. I would have Pettersson and Nattinen ahead of Wagner with no hesitation, because this is a prospect ranking and we aren't judging them based on where they are currently, but where they are heading. Do they have a longer path to the NHL than Wagner? You bet. But they also have the capabilities to be better players.

 

[Exit Dose]

Yeah, I love Wagner, but his ceiling is definitely beneath a lot of our other prospects.

 

[Getzmonster]

I'm thinking Kase should start to factor in here soon.

 

[Nurmagomedov]

Wagner is 24 years old, and at the same age as them was playing in, what? The EJHL? Unless I'm mistaken, that's a Tier 3 Junior A league.

Doesn't matter at all now. The fact that he has reached the doorstep from there should be a credit to him as a prospect, not a detriment. He's been able to improve and adjust and be effective at successively higher levels of competition. Pettersson wasn't able to in his first season post draft. We'll see with Nattinen.

Age is a big factor in prospect ratings. Pettersson and Nattinen are better prospects because they are younger and have more potential. I would have Pettersson and Nattinen ahead of Wagner with no hesitation, because this is a prospect ranking and we aren't judging them based on where they are currently, but where they are heading. Do they have a longer path to the NHL than Wagner? You bet. But they also have the capabilities to be better players.

Overrating the age factor and draft position against the difficulty of the journey also leads to placing Etem and Holland and DSP and Palmieri ahead of older but more proven guys like Maroon or Bonino, both of whom didn't really factor in the NHL until their age 26 season.

 

[Sojourn]

Doesn't matter at all now. The fact that he has reached the doorstep from there should be a credit to him as a prospect, not a detriment. He's been able to improve and adjust and be effective at successively higher levels of competition. Pettersson wasn't able to in his first season post draft. We'll see with Nattinen.

Are you seriously saying that Pettersson didn't improve in his first season post draft? Really? Did you actually follow him at all? Did you watch him play consistently?

It does matter, because you're essentially knocking Nattinen and Pettersson for not being NHL players right now, even though Wagner wasn't even close at the same age. They were never expected to be in the NHL at this point. Few players are, at the age of 18-19.

Overrating the age factor and draft position against the difficulty of the journey also leads to placing Etem and Holland and DSP and Palmieri ahead of older but more proven guys like Maroon or Bonino, both of whom didn't really factor in the NHL until their age 26 season.

You're making that argument to the wrong person, Nurma. I've always favored the more proven players vs. young potential, but Wagner isn't a more proven player. He's the older prospect, not the proven player. 11 games of NHL experience does not mean he deserves to be named with the likes of a Nick Bonino. You aren't arguing a proven talent vs. young potential. You're arguing an older prospect, with less potential vs. a younger prospect with more. That's basically it.

Being closer to the NHL, and being 4+ years older, does not make a prospect better. Not when you start factoring in things like talent, potential, and so on...

 

[Ducks Nation*]

Wagner will only be a roster player next season because he is has to go through waivers, just like Etem last year but worse.

 

[Vipers31]

Mainly paraphrasing Sojourn's arguments, but chiming in:

Doesn't matter at all now. The fact that he has reached the doorstep from there should be a credit to him as a prospect, not a detriment. He's been able to improve and adjust and be effective at successively higher levels of competition.

In the end, you can argue that way if you feel that a prospect that's likely to be a fringe NHLer / 4th liner but has an almost non-existent chance of being a top player is a better prospect than a guy that has a longer way to go, with a bigger chance that he'll never make it to the NHL, but might be an impact player if he does.

I personally consider that to be very misguided. Wagner has done really well for himself to get to where he is, but he has really "only" done exceptionally well for a late-rounder's developmental path. If he establishes himself in the NHL, he's still going to be a relatively dime-a-dozen player. Not that there's no value in a defensively sound forward (who is still only about a 0.5 PPG offensive talent in the AHL), but there's limits to how good he'll be, and at 24 years of age, those limitations are very unlikely to disappear - at that point, suggesting age doesn't matter for a prospect is rather puzzling.

Even if a guy like Pettersson's odds of maximizing his potential are lower, there's a noteworthy chance he becomes an absolute impact player in the NHL. That's a lot more rare and is universally valued a lot more highly. A different balancing between NHL-probability and ceiling would make the draft look dramatically different than it does.

As a result of that, I also believe Pettersson should have been above Noesen/Kerdiles/Friberg, too. With Nattinen, I'm not entirely sold about the upside being that much higher, yet.

 

[Exit Dose]

I think that people are maybe going a little overboard with Kerdiles's rookie season. The last time I saw a player as effective at the college level as Kerdiles was, it was David Backes. You need to give him a little time to catch up with the speed of the game before writing off his upside. He was very impressive with the Badgers.