2015- A summer of dissapointment and incompetence?

[Mortimer Snerd]

Bonus overages only occur if they cause you to exceed the cap. That seems extremely unlikely to happen this year. Unless we make a trade(s) that adds a lot of salary it won't be an issue for next season.

But the bonuses still have to be counted against the cap. I don't care what year they get counted in. They count. If we are not up against the cap then they count and push us closer to the cap. If they cause us to exceed the cap in any one year they carry over to the next and if the cap doesn't rise they will put us over that year. So bonuses have to be planned for in managing the cap. They can't simply be ignored.

They are difficult for us to deal with because the trigger are not publicized except in the case of signing bonuses. I suspect that most bonuses to ELC players are based on number of games played but that doesn't necessarily cover them all. Signing bonuses are included in the AAV. Performance bonuses are not but they still impact the cap. So in the absence of any knowledge of what the triggers are it is best to assume they will be applied.

 

[Holden Caulfield]

But the bonuses still have to be counted against the cap. I don't care what year they get counted in. They count. If we are not up against the cap then they count and push us closer to the cap. If they cause us to exceed the cap in any one year they carry over to the next and if the cap doesn't rise they will put us over that year. So bonuses have to be planned for in managing the cap. They can't simply be ignored.

They are difficult for us to deal with because the trigger are not publicized except in the case of signing bonuses. I suspect that most bonuses to ELC players are based on number of games played but that doesn't necessarily cover them all. Signing bonuses are included in the AAV. Performance bonuses are not but they still impact the cap. So in the absence of any knowledge of what the triggers are it is best to assume they will be applied.

Fair enough. But what the bonuses are limited by CBA. Most of the bonuses are restricted to "B" type bonuses. 2 million of those bonuses are restricted to that. What "B" type means is that the player must win a yearly award. "A" type bonuses are the games played and goals/assists/points etc type bonuses. Those can only be a maximum of 850K. So really teams wouldn't and shouldn't consider a 3mil + ELC player a 3 mil player. They are more 1.5-1.7 mil players at best.

That's why I don't agree that Jets should be taking those full bonuses in account.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

Fair enough. But what the bonuses are limited by CBA. Most of the bonuses are restricted to "B" type bonuses. 2 million of those bonuses are restricted to that. What "B" type means is that the player must win a yearly award. "A" type bonuses are the games played and goals/assists/points etc type bonuses. Those can only be a maximum of 850K. So really teams wouldn't and shouldn't consider a 3mil + ELC player a 3 mil player. They are more 1.5-1.7 mil players at best.

That's why I don't agree that Jets should be taking those full bonuses in account.

"B" type means league awards like Calder, Ross, etc? Assuming that then yes absolutely agree. Those are unlikely enough to be ignored. Cross those bridges when and if we come to them. I have been allocating ~1.5-1.8 for ELC players like Scheif, Trouba when estimating. Using figures from Spotrac since they include bonuses but I don't know exactly how they decide which bonuses to count and which ones not to. I don't know if they have 'A' 'B' type bonus info or not.

 

[Holden Caulfield]

"B" type means league awards like Calder, Ross, etc? Assuming that then yes absolutely agree. Those are unlikely enough to be ignored. Cross those bridges when and if we come to them. I have been allocating ~1.5-1.8 for ELC players like Scheif, Trouba when estimating. Using figures from Spotrac since they include bonuses but I don't know exactly how they decide which bonuses to count and which ones not to. I don't know if they have 'A' 'B' type bonus info or not.

Yes. Must be a major yearly award.

The B type bonus is what screwed CHI out of Ladd and/or Buff. Since Toews won the Conn Smythe during his ELC which really killed their cap space the next year. But that is so damn rare that an ELC is going to win a major award like that you can discount the bonuses.

 

[Jetfaninflorida]

So does what the owner and GM say publicly carry no weight?

Ownership and GM's public statements are well orchestrated marketing pronouncements advancing specific business objectives. As long as you understand that, you know exactly what weight to apply to them.

 

[KingBogo]

Ownership and GM's public statements are well orchestrated marketing pronouncements advancing specific business objectives. As long as you understand that, you know exactly what weight to apply to them.

Agreed. And I've argued the same thing on several occasions. In this case comments about affording to spend to the cap, and spending to the cap when needed were directed at a fan base that is a little worried that we will lose our star players rather than pay them. It was a be happy and everything will be okay message. Even though we are currently spending far less then we could be on salaries, we will spend the money when we need to.

 

[Gm0ney]

I think you might be misapplying the 5% escalator. That is 5% on top of the HRR not on top if this years cap. If next year's HRR is identical to last year's and the PA applies the escalator the same way we get the identical cap. They can't keep using the escalator to increase the cap in spite of stagnant or declining revenues.

Expiring after this year;
Ladd UFA 4.4
Scheifele RFA .863
Lowry RFA .828
Byfuglien UFA 5.2
Clitsome UFA 2.0666
Harrison UFA 1.05
Pardy UFA 1.0
Trouba RFA .894
Hutchinson RFA .575
total 17.0586
minus ~ 1.5 mil for this years bonuses = 15.5586
Plus several non-roster players.

Of those we can assume that Clitsome and Harrison are not likely to be re-signed. That is ~ 3.1 mil. There is no reason to expect an increase in the cap next year. It could happen but it would be foolish to plan on it. So there is ~ 15 mil available with all those raises to be handed out. Clitsome and Harrison don't have to be replaced but any others that leave (Buff & Ladd) do. Depending on the cost of the replacements that could add 2-3 mil to that pool or maybe none at all. Maybe they are traded and the return costs as much as their current contracts. If both are kept and they need their raises along with those for all the others it could get tight.

I totally was misinterpreting that escalator!

But even assuming the cap is the same and stays at $71.4M next year, with the current room ($12.1M) plus all the contracts coming off the books, that's just shy of $29M in space with 9 players to re-sign or sign. 5 of those 9 are Ladd, Buff, Scheifele, Trouba and Lowry...and if you throw $13M at Ladd+Buff, things could be tight...

 

[Board Bard]

No, like a reasonable person I listen to what those with the power to actually make thinks happen say and judge the rational on why they made the statements they did. Public messages should be well thought out for maximum gain.

When talking about spending to the cap both Chipman and Chevy were giving a message to the fan base not to worry we will spend the money when we need to but with a close eye on future commitments.

Supporting your players in public is common sense. No purpose is served by throwing your starting goalie under the bus, especially as you are grooming potential replacements that are still unproven. Also makes sense to single Stuart out for his hard work and commitment to the team and community as ownership and management benefit from fostering that vision among players on the team.

So in other words, whichever one makes Chevy and Chipman look like superheroes.

 

[Jeffsrig]

I totally was misinterpreting that escalator!

But even assuming the cap is the same and stays at $71.4M next year, with the current room ($12.1M) plus all the contracts coming off the books, that's just shy of $29M in space with 9 players to re-sign or sign. 5 of those 9 are Ladd, Buff, Scheifele, Trouba and Lowry...and if you throw $13M at Ladd+Buff, things could be tight...

Exactly why I don't see Buff resigning as a remote possibility, too many high quality RFAs to sign long term deals with.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

I totally was misinterpreting that escalator!

But even assuming the cap is the same and stays at $71.4M next year, with the current room ($12.1M) plus all the contracts coming off the books, that's just shy of $29M in space with 9 players to re-sign or sign. 5 of those 9 are Ladd, Buff, Scheifele, Trouba and Lowry...and if you throw $13M at Ladd+Buff, things could be tight...

Doable, manageable but there will be trade offs.

 

[Whileee]

I totally was misinterpreting that escalator!

But even assuming the cap is the same and stays at $71.4M next year, with the current room ($12.1M) plus all the contracts coming off the books, that's just shy of $29M in space with 9 players to re-sign or sign. 5 of those 9 are Ladd, Buff, Scheifele, Trouba and Lowry...and if you throw $13M at Ladd+Buff, things could be tight...

Don't forget that if Buff and Ladd get 5-6 year extensions, the Jets will also need to make a decision on re-signing some other core players who will be coming up to UFA... Wheeler, Little, Enstrom and Myers. If you add Perreault to the mix, you realize that it's not just being able to fit Ladd and Buff under the cap, the Jets also need to think about whether they want to keep some of those other top 6 F / top 4 D. They won't be able to re-sign everyone.

Personally, going forward and thinking 3-5 years out (when the Jets are most likely to be a real contender) this might be how I would rank our priorities (for players currently under contract who will be beyond ELC).

Player (current age):

Trouba (21)
Scheifele (22)
Ehlers (19)
Myers (25)
Little (27)
Morrissey (20)
Wheeler (29)
Ladd (29)
Byfuglien (30)
Enstrom (30)
Lowry (22)
Petan (20)
Hellebuyck (22)
Perreault (27)
Copp (21)
Chiarot (24)

Depending on how they develop, I might slot Lowry, Petan and Hellebuyck higher.

I can understand Wheeler and other teammates wanting the Jets to pay Ladd and Buff to re-sign them, but what if it means that they don't have the cap space to re-sign him in a few years?

 

[KingBogo]

So in other words, whichever one makes Chevy and Chipman look like superheroes.

Not sure I'm following, but I get that you don't like Chevy or other decision makers with True North. Obviously you don't trust a word they say. On the other had I greatly appreciate what True North has done for the city, and I do listen closely to their public message as a I find it quite telling. I also think Chevy has done a pretty nice job assembling a young group of players.

 

[KingBogo]

Don't forget that if Buff and Ladd get 5-6 year extensions, the Jets will also need to make a decision on re-signing some other core players who will be coming up to UFA... Wheeler, Little, Enstrom and Myers. If you add Perreault to the mix, you realize that it's not just being able to fit Ladd and Buff under the cap, the Jets also need to think about whether they want to keep some of those other top 6 F / top 4 D. They won't be able to re-sign everyone.

Personally, going forward and thinking 3-5 years out (when the Jets are most likely to be a real contender) this might be how I would rank our priorities (for players currently under contract who will be beyond ELC).

Player (current age):

Trouba (21)
Scheifele (22)
Ehlers (19)
Myers (25)
Little (27)
Morrissey (20)
Wheeler (29)
Ladd (29)
Byfuglien (30)
Enstrom (30)
Lowry (22)
Petan (20)
Hellebuyck (22)
Perreault (27)
Copp (21)
Chiarot (24)

Depending on how they develop, I might slot Lowry, Petan and Hellebuyck higher.

I can understand Wheeler and other teammates wanting the Jets to pay Ladd and Buff to re-sign them, but what if it means that they don't have the cap space to re-sign him in a few years?

It will become more and more of a balancing act as time goes on and players mature within the organization. I'm thinking they do have to pull the trigger and sign Ladd, due to the ripple effect that would occur if they moved him. Buff could still fit but it will be all about term IMO. Wild cards will be any big break out seasons over the next couple years with guys on ELC's, starting this season with Trouba and Scheifele. If one or 2 of them blows past expectations, the number Chevy is forecasting might jump dramatically. But overall we are in a very good good starting spot cap wise.

 

[Blue Shakehead]

I can understand Wheeler and other teammates wanting the Jets to pay Ladd and Buff to re-sign them, but what if it means that they don't have the cap space to re-sign him in a few years?

In my opinion, if we don't re-sign Ladd, it won't matter how much space we have or not when Little and Wheeler's contracts come up. They wouldn't be signing here.

 

[CaptainChef]

In my opinion, if we don't re-sign Ladd, it won't matter how much space we have or not when Little and Wheeler's contracts come up. They wouldn't be signing here.

No concerns with re-signing Little or Wheeler at all. For one, they're both signed long-term (3-4 years). Wheels will be ~32 when he comes to re-sign; Little will be 29-30. By then our team make-up will be completely different & I doubt they are still first liners or absolutely essential to re-sign.

 

[Hunter368]

Not sure I'm following, but I get that you don't like Chevy or other decision makers with True North. Obviously you don't trust a word they say. On the other had I greatly appreciate what True North has done for the city, and I do listen closely to their public message as a I find it quite telling. I also think Chevy has done a pretty nice job assembling a young group of players and IMO it will be gradually more and more difficult for the haters to find traction.

Not trying to jump into your conversation but you labelled a group as haters.

I view haters as people with a complete and irrational view point on a matter who won't listen to facts or logic. I don't see that on this board, I just see people with varying points of view.....but not irrational. This doesn't make them haters.

 

[KingBogo]

Not trying to jump into your conversation but you labelled a group as haters.

I view haters as people with a complete and irrational view point on a matter who won't listen to facts or logic. I don't see that on this board, I just see people with varying points of view.....but not irrational. This doesn't make them haters.

Agreed and I edited my original post.

 

[JetsFan815]

Well atleast so far it seems like the decisions made in the summer (or lack there of) are backfiring

 

[Jetfaninflorida]

There was no reason to take the absolutely highest risk path possible. Bring back zero of the depth players. Fill spots with guys before even seeing them in training camp or pre-season. Leave behind stripped AHL team so there is no plan B.

And I am not even bringing up the LHD and goaltending issues that were left AS-IS.

Honestly, the approach can only be described as idiotic. Either that or management just doesn't give a crap about icing a team that can compete.

 

[YWGinYYZ]

There was no reason to take the absolutely highest risk path possible. Bring back zero of the depth players. Fill spots with guys before even seeing them in training camp or pre-season. Leave behind stripped AHL team so there is no plan B.

And I am not even bringing up the LHD and goaltending issues that were left AS-IS.

Honestly, the approach can only be described as idiotic. Either that or management just doesn't give a crap about icing a team that can compete.

Or they were concerned about the upcoming league-wide cap crunch, and signing Ladd and Buff.

...and our circular argument in this thread begins again.

Regarding the bolded: do you really think this is true? Can there be no other explanation that we're not privy to? You can answer this in the "Management" thread - there's enough of these going on right now that I'm going to close this. Too close to the topic of other threads to bring this one back to life.