While I never intended this thread to be an annual endeavor, it draws some intelligent discourse and prognostication is an enjoyable exercise (we're undefeated right now!) so here we go. Previous years' threads from our forum are below; I will update the thread with links to those from our division rivals' forums as they are created as well.
NOTE TO FANS OF RIVAL TEAMS
You may post in this thread, but you must be extra civil.
PREVIOUS NSH FORUM PREDICTION THREADS
2014/15 Thread: http://hfboards.mandatory.com/showthread.php?t=1709753&highlight=division
2013/14 Thread: http://hfboards.mandatory.com/showthread.php?t=1464625&highlight=division
CURRENT DIVISION RIVALS' PRESEASON PREDICTION THREADS
[TO BE UPDATED]
2014-15 STANDINGS (Division / Conference / NHL)
Division Sorted by Points
[spoil]
[/spoil]
Conference Sorted by Points
[spoil]
[/spoil]
NHL Sorted by Points
[spoil]
[/spoil]
2014-15 DISCUSSION / PREDICTIONS REVIEW
Last year, instead of a forced ranking, I grouped the teams into three tiers as follows (actual results in parentheses):
Guaranteed Playoffs / Contenders
Chicago (3rd in Central; won the Stanley Cup
)
St. Louis (Central champs, lost to MIN in first round)
Fighting for Playoffs / Unlikely Champions
Dallas (6th in Central, missed playoffs)
Nashville (2nd in Central, lost to CHI in first round)
Minnesota (4th in Central, beat STL in first round, lost to CHI in second)
Colorado (Last in Central, missed playoffs)
Unlikely Playoff Candidates
Winnipeg (5th in Central, lost to ANA in first round)
All in all, not a bad guess; I expected COL to miss, but did not expect WPG to make it in lieu of DAL. I would like to pat myself on the back for this one though:
Again, off on WPG, but COL definitely fell into an abyss for much of the season before making a decent rally at the end.
OFF-SEASON TRANSACTIONS
EDITOR'S NOTE: Please help me amend this list if you see missing items; this is a pain to track in the post-Cap Geek world. The most difficult thing for me is keeping track of middling/low-end free agents that left a team; same goes for middling players who signed as a free agent (e.g. I thought Bortuzzo signed with the Blues at first as I always remembered him on PIT; he actually was traded in March of last year and is a re-signing).
Nashville
Winnipeg
Chicago
Dallas
St. Louis
Minnesota
Colorado
CENTRAL DIVISION PREDICTIONS
I will be force ranking all teams with estimated point totals instead of the vague tier system I employed last time and I would encourage others to do the same so we can point and laugh at those were spectacularly wrong. I took last seasons standings, decided my 2015-16 intradivisional rankings, then applied the proportion of the total point total for each rank in last year's standings to my estimated total for next year. It's a pseudo-scientific method that will likely fail spectacularly; nonetheless for reference:
[spoil]
[/spoil]
#1
They are not materially better than last year, but they are not worse really either. Oshie is a loss to consider, but the kid has had one 20-goal season and has been outscored by Brouwer over the last three. The team has been a regular season machine for a number of years now and I don't foresee any issues taking another Central crown.
#2
I have been bullish on this team for ~3 years now; every single year I am wrong. I will likely be wrong again this year. Last year they started slow, had atrocious goaltending (like come on Kari), and couldn't get back to par before the music stopped. Signing Niemi is kind of crazy because they now have amongst the highest goal cap hits in the league, but also kind of smart as it gives them a legitimate option should Lehtonen fall apart (unfortunately Lindback was not able to fill that role last year). If DAL gets #2 in the Central in 2015-2016, it will be because they have the highest GF/G in the league; their defense is still highly suspect even with the Klingberg coming out party. Can they push an obscene scoring rate over a season? We'll see, but the tools are definitely there.
#3
I don't like the Wild and I really want to put them at like #6, but it's a solid top-to-bottom team. They have a decent forward corps and a very solid blue line; Dubnyk is the million dollar question. He's not going to have another season like last year, but I think MIN can be very competitive if he's in the 915-920 area on SV%.
#4
Why are you putting us at #4!? We barely lost anyone and added Jackman to solidify the bottom pairing? And so forth. On paper, LA or CHI will win the cup every year; fortunately, the game is not played on paper, but that is also part of the reason I see us regressing a bit. Lavi was the first new coach in over 15 years; that alone made it a special season emotionally. If you reflect honestly, you'll also notice that almost everything that needed to pan out for us, did pan out. Forsberg had an epic campaign, our risk on Ribeiro paid off tremendously, Rinne had an epic run to the ASG break (tailed off after), etc. There is certainly some upside for Neal as he was not particularly impressive, but I just get the sensation we're going to take a step backwards on a relative basis.
#5
The Chicago Blackhawks won the Stanley Cup in 2010 then spent two years barely making the playoffs and losing in the first round largely due to cap issues and necessary roster dumps. The 2015-16 iteration of this team has many of the same issues (to a lesser extent) and I think you see a similar short term decline. I do not want to make this into a thread about the current Patrick Kane ordeal; all I will say is that the allegations are serious and it is definitely something that will not help their team. On record, I think the 2015-16 Chicago Blackhawks miss the playoffs barely. Some angry Hawks fan is going to come in here and say I'm crazy; they very well could be correct.
#6
The Avs got a surprisingly good return out of the O'Reilly trade given the circumstances. I think the Avs are trending in the right direction, but need another year in the oven. Blue line remains suspect, but Varlamov is a solid tender and if he goes on another run like two years ago, they could be a very competitive team.
#7
Someone has to be last in this division. Take how I feel about Dallas, invert it, and you have my feelings about the Jets. No matter how you slice it, they are a fringe playoff team in the Central that did not get appreciably better in the off-season. Frankly, I could theoretically see them finishing anywhere from #3 to #7.
CONCLUSION
Go Perds!
NOTE TO FANS OF RIVAL TEAMS
You may post in this thread, but you must be extra civil.
PREVIOUS NSH FORUM PREDICTION THREADS
2014/15 Thread: http://hfboards.mandatory.com/showthread.php?t=1709753&highlight=division
2013/14 Thread: http://hfboards.mandatory.com/showthread.php?t=1464625&highlight=division
CURRENT DIVISION RIVALS' PRESEASON PREDICTION THREADS
[TO BE UPDATED]
2014-15 STANDINGS (Division / Conference / NHL)
Division Sorted by Points
[spoil]
Conference Sorted by Points
[spoil]
NHL Sorted by Points
[spoil]
2014-15 DISCUSSION / PREDICTIONS REVIEW
Last year, instead of a forced ranking, I grouped the teams into three tiers as follows (actual results in parentheses):
Guaranteed Playoffs / Contenders
Chicago (3rd in Central; won the Stanley Cup
)St. Louis (Central champs, lost to MIN in first round)
Fighting for Playoffs / Unlikely Champions
Dallas (6th in Central, missed playoffs)
Nashville (2nd in Central, lost to CHI in first round
)Minnesota (4th in Central, beat STL in first round, lost to CHI in second)
Colorado (Last in Central, missed playoffs)
Unlikely Playoff Candidates
Winnipeg (5th in Central, lost to ANA in first round)
All in all, not a bad guess; I expected COL to miss, but did not expect WPG to make it in lieu of DAL. I would like to pat myself on the back for this one though:
The Ghost of Cashville's Past said:
Again, off on WPG, but COL definitely fell into an abyss for much of the season before making a decent rally at the end.
OFF-SEASON TRANSACTIONS
EDITOR'S NOTE: Please help me amend this list if you see missing items; this is a pain to track in the post-Cap Geek world. The most difficult thing for me is keeping track of middling/low-end free agents that left a team; same goes for middling players who signed as a free agent (e.g. I thought Bortuzzo signed with the Blues at first as I always remembered him on PIT; he actually was traded in March of last year and is a re-signing).
Nashville
- Re-signed Fisher, Ribeiro, Wilson, Smith, Bourque, and Jarnkrok
- Signed Jackman and Hodgson
- Traded Beck for Devane (TOR), 4th for Reinhart (CGY), Hellberg for 6th (NYR)
- Lost Stalberg, Clune, Franson, Cullen, Volchenkov, Beck, Hellberg, and Santorelli
Winnipeg
- Re-signed Stafford, Pardy, Burmistrov (back from KHL), Hustlechuck, Chiarot, Peluso, and Postma
- Lost Frolik
Chicago
- Re-signed van Riemsdyk (Trevor), Desjardins, Tikhonov, Rundblad. Anisimov (post-trade)
- Traded Saad for Anisimov / Morin / Dano / Tropp (WPG), Sharp / Johns for Daley / Garbutt (DAL), Nilsson for Coughlin (EDM)
- Lost Richards, Vermette, Oduya, Sharp, Saad, Nilsson
Dallas
- Re-signed Oduya (post-trade), Oleksiak, Eaves, Niemi (post-trade), McKenzie
- Traded 7th for rights to Niemi (SJ), Daley / Garbutt for Sharp / Johns (CHI)
- Lost Daley, Garbutt
St. Louis
- Re-signed Tarasenko ($$$), Jaskin, Allen, Bortuzzo, Lehtera, Butler
- Signed Brodziak
- Traded Oshie for Brouwer / Copley / 3rd (WSH)
- Lost Oshie
Minnesota
- Re-signed Haula, Folin, Dubnyk, Granlund, Knight, Michalek, Carter, Prosser, and Reilly (Mike)
- Traded 5th for 5th (BOS)
- Lost Cooke (buyout), ???
Colorado
- Re-signed Grigorenko (post-trade), Soderberg (post-trade)
- Signed Comeau, Beauchemin
- Traded O'Reilly / McGinn for Grigorenko / Zadorov / Compher / 2nd (BUF), 6th for rights to Soderberg (BOS), 2nd for 2nd / 2nd in 2016 / 6th in 2017 (SJ)
- Lost O'Reilly, McGinn, Hejda, Briere, and Wilson
CENTRAL DIVISION PREDICTIONS
I will be force ranking all teams with estimated point totals instead of the vague tier system I employed last time and I would encourage others to do the same so we can point and laugh at those were spectacularly wrong. I took last seasons standings, decided my 2015-16 intradivisional rankings, then applied the proportion of the total point total for each rank in last year's standings to my estimated total for next year. It's a pseudo-scientific method that will likely fail spectacularly; nonetheless for reference:
[spoil]
#1
They are not materially better than last year, but they are not worse really either. Oshie is a loss to consider, but the kid has had one 20-goal season and has been outscored by Brouwer over the last three. The team has been a regular season machine for a number of years now and I don't foresee any issues taking another Central crown.
#2
I have been bullish on this team for ~3 years now; every single year I am wrong. I will likely be wrong again this year. Last year they started slow, had atrocious goaltending (like come on Kari), and couldn't get back to par before the music stopped. Signing Niemi is kind of crazy because they now have amongst the highest goal cap hits in the league, but also kind of smart as it gives them a legitimate option should Lehtonen fall apart (unfortunately Lindback was not able to fill that role last year). If DAL gets #2 in the Central in 2015-2016, it will be because they have the highest GF/G in the league; their defense is still highly suspect even with the Klingberg coming out party. Can they push an obscene scoring rate over a season? We'll see, but the tools are definitely there.
#3
I don't like the Wild and I really want to put them at like #6, but it's a solid top-to-bottom team. They have a decent forward corps and a very solid blue line; Dubnyk is the million dollar question. He's not going to have another season like last year, but I think MIN can be very competitive if he's in the 915-920 area on SV%.
#4
Why are you putting us at #4!? We barely lost anyone and added Jackman to solidify the bottom pairing? And so forth. On paper, LA or CHI will win the cup every year; fortunately, the game is not played on paper, but that is also part of the reason I see us regressing a bit. Lavi was the first new coach in over 15 years; that alone made it a special season emotionally. If you reflect honestly, you'll also notice that almost everything that needed to pan out for us, did pan out. Forsberg had an epic campaign, our risk on Ribeiro paid off tremendously, Rinne had an epic run to the ASG break (tailed off after), etc. There is certainly some upside for Neal as he was not particularly impressive, but I just get the sensation we're going to take a step backwards on a relative basis.
#5
The Chicago Blackhawks won the Stanley Cup in 2010 then spent two years barely making the playoffs and losing in the first round largely due to cap issues and necessary roster dumps. The 2015-16 iteration of this team has many of the same issues (to a lesser extent) and I think you see a similar short term decline. I do not want to make this into a thread about the current Patrick Kane ordeal; all I will say is that the allegations are serious and it is definitely something that will not help their team. On record, I think the 2015-16 Chicago Blackhawks miss the playoffs barely. Some angry Hawks fan is going to come in here and say I'm crazy; they very well could be correct.
#6
The Avs got a surprisingly good return out of the O'Reilly trade given the circumstances. I think the Avs are trending in the right direction, but need another year in the oven. Blue line remains suspect, but Varlamov is a solid tender and if he goes on another run like two years ago, they could be a very competitive team.
#7
Someone has to be last in this division. Take how I feel about Dallas, invert it, and you have my feelings about the Jets. No matter how you slice it, they are a fringe playoff team in the Central that did not get appreciably better in the off-season. Frankly, I could theoretically see them finishing anywhere from #3 to #7.
CONCLUSION
Go Perds!
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