Prospect Info: 2014 Draft Thread

[fedfed]

I've always taken "BPA" to mean the prospect with the best combination intangibles and raw talent. How each of those components is valued likely varies team-by-team and scout-by-scout within each team.

I know in practice, prospects are grouped into tiers based on those components, and the BPA strategy means you never take a prospect from a lower tier than others available to satisfy a position/style need.

This.

At almost any point at the draft, once you get past top 5-10 there are at least 4 players at any given moment, who are more or less similar. Between them, you have a lot of flexibility to take a player who fits your style or your philosophy. Players don't play in a vacuum; analyzing how he applies to your team gives you an advantage and what actually helps you draw lines within a tier.

There's always a guy who you think is about to bloom, there are always players who are more risky picks, there are always safer picks.

That's why I said from the beginning that people just get 'BPA' wrong.

 

[fedfed]

I don't even know where to begin...

So you don't believe professional sporting organizations, I'm not talking just hockey I am talking sports in general, can look at draft prospects who play completely different positions and make judgements on who will be better? Seriously...?

And yes you can take a player in the 1st round who may appear blocked at that time because you 100% know that you do not know what your roster is going to look like in even a couple years let alone when he is likely to be ready to really contribute. And if he bucks the odds and forces you to make a move to accommodate him then so be it.

When do you see the guy who the Caps take at 13 making the team and actually contributing? IMO 2-3 years down the road at best. How about Burakovsky? At best after another year and likely two IMO. What is the Caps lineup going to look like in 2 years? Neither one of us knows.

You take the BPA because you have no idea what your needs will be when the player is ready. It is as simple as that and to pretend that isn't the case is ignoring the reality of things IMO.

I hope that the teams are smart enough to understand it's very subjective (a lot more subjective than comparing apples to apples, even through the eyeball test), and thus not very reliable.

 

[Atlas]

I would put a premium on drafting centers, then D. You have to find a great goalie somehow. Wingers are easiest to acquire.

 

[usiel]

This.

At almost any point at the draft, once you get past top 5-10 there are at least 4 players at any given moment, who are more or less similar. Between them, you have a lot of flexibility to take a player who fits your style or your philosophy. Players don't play in a vacuum; analyzing how he applies to your team gives you an advantage and what actually helps you draw lines within a tier.

There's always a guy who you think is about to bloom, there are always players who are more risky picks, there are always safer picks.

That's why I said from the beginning that people just get 'BPA' wrong.

Bolded is what I would love to here from a NHL team. Really the quandary IMHO when it comes to drafting 17/18 year olds. Personally I believe their is some tiering going on and figure Mahoney then makes the call. Sure it is easy to have a straight up pick by pick BPA but wonder if they do tier/group draftees what is their decision making process there.

 

[trick9]

How would people feel about moving down assuming the player you are looking for is still left and @ 13 there aren't any surprises (Fleury gone along with others as espected).

Barbashev seemed to be ranked between 25-28 in some scouts lists and McKenzie had him @ 23. If he is still left @ 21 i'd try to acquire #21 and #33 from Blues for #13 which would be pretty good deal for both sides. Blues already have very deep prospect pool along with several young players that have just graduated too, and they are lacking elite players so they might look to move up. For Caps you still get the player you want (Barbashev would be steal even @ 21) along with another pick to get another great prospect.

Another solid option to trade down is Tampa who pick bit earlier (#19) but their second round would be just #50 as opposed to Blues #33. They could be willing too as they have one of the best prospect pools in the NHL already and have NYR's 1st too.

 

[fedfed]

How would people feel about moving down assuming the player you are looking for is still left and @ 13 there aren't any surprises (Fleury gone along with others as espected).

Barbashev seemed to be ranked between 25-28 in some scouts lists and McKenzie had him @ 23. If he is still left @ 21 i'd try to acquire #21 and #33 from Blues for #13 which would be pretty good deal for both sides. Blues already have very deep prospect pool along with several young players that have just graduated too, and they are lacking elite players so they might look to move up. For Caps you still get the player you want (Barbashev would be steal even @ 21) along with another pick to get another great prospect.

Another solid option to trade down is Tampa who pick bit earlier (#19) but their second round would be just #50 as opposed to Blues #33. They could be willing too as they have one of the best prospect pools in the NHL already and have NYR's 1st too.

That's what I've been advocating for. I'd trade with Tampa or C'bus or Philly for their 1st+2nd.

 

[discobob]

How would people feel about moving down assuming the player you are looking for is still left and @ 13 there aren't any surprises (Fleury gone along with others as espected).

Barbashev seemed to be ranked between 25-28 in some scouts lists and McKenzie had him @ 23. If he is still left @ 21 i'd try to acquire #21 and #33 from Blues for #13 which would be pretty good deal for both sides. Blues already have very deep prospect pool along with several young players that have just graduated too, and they are lacking elite players so they might look to move up. For Caps you still get the player you want (Barbashev would be steal even @ 21) along with another pick to get another great prospect.

Another solid option to trade down is Tampa who pick bit earlier (#19) but their second round would be just #50 as opposed to Blues #33. They could be willing too as they have one of the best prospect pools in the NHL already and have NYR's 1st too.

So IF he is available at #21, you will trade our #13? How's that supposed to work?

 

[Langway]

That's what I've been advocating for. I'd trade with Tampa or C'bus or Philly for their 1st+2nd.

I'd be fine with that or moving the pick in a package for a top 3 defenseman. Easier said than done in this draft but after fairly solid first two picks last year and decent organizational depth they can do without a first rounder this year if it nets a significant asset signed to term. I like the depth available at 44/74 and thereafter it's not horrible so they could still wind up with some pretty interesting prospects outside of the first round.

@TSNBobMcKenzie: Beyond 35, opinions on players are wildly scattered. I wouldn't be surprised if more than half of guys ranked 31-60 don't go in 2nd round.

Some very good players not in McKenzie's top 60 or HMs: Lammikko, Jacobs, Siebenaler, Mayo, Lagesson, Bunting, Kirkland, Chatham, Wood, Chartier, Lindblom, etc.

 

[Ajax1995]

I hope that the teams are smart enough to understand it's very subjective (a lot more subjective than comparing apples to apples, even through the eyeball test), and thus not very reliable.

Scouting as a whole is subjective and unreliable period. If it wasn't drafting would be easy. But in the real world there are a ton more misses than hits. But like it or not scouting departments are supposed to be able to compare players of different positions and determine who they like better and why. Just because they don't tell you how they do it doesn't mean they don't feel they can do it.

 

[NeilYoung]

I'm all for trading down around 17-24 and getting Bleackley. An extra second would be nice. Either way I trust our scouts last year Burakovsky wasn't on my radar much at all and he looks extremely promising.

 

[Cush]

I usually love the draft, but I have a 2005 vibe for some reason

 

[Langway]

Red Line Report mock has the Caps taking Perlini at 13. Meh.

Sanheim with "the potential to be the best WHL defenseman in the class over time." I wouldn't disagree as the potential is definitely there. IMO he's the most interesting player in the first round given the trajectory of his development but also the lack of a real long track record.

My issue with that 11-16 group (and even beyond that) in McKenzie's rankings is if they predominantly side with pure offensive upside then they're going to wind up with yet another winger. Even if it's Fabbri he's not going to play center in the NHL for a few years at least. Unless they're really high on Barbashev it's going to take a change in criteria if they're going to take a Larkin or McCann over someone like Fiala or Perlini or Kapanen.

Their last five first round picks have been wingers. Their first round pick traded prior to those five? Yep...for a winger. Kind of unbelievable. Re: Kuznetsov/Johansson, I haven't seen much to suggest they'll be centers even if they've played there in the past. Even if you set them aside that's still three winger first rounders in the past two drafts. At some point, particularly given their pro scouting weaknesses and excuse-making about D/C, this becomes an inclination that requires further scrutiny. Perhaps this is the year they're more mindful of that, particularly if they can net additional assets by moving down to get their target(s).

 

[Marshall]

Red Line has two mocks in the guide - in the other they have the Caps selecting McCann.

They like Jack Glover as an early 20's guy, as well.

 

[Capitlols]

Interesting article on Ho-Sang:

http://www.torontosun.com/2014/06/24/the-curious-case-of-controversial-nhl-prospect-joshua-ho-sang

Haven't followed his story too closely, but is this a Kabanov-ish scenario?

 

[fedfed]

I'd take a chance on him if I was picking in late first/early second. He has a chip on his shoulder and crazy talent. Many players went into this "challenge accepted" mode and benefitted from it (including two mentioned in the article: Kane and Subban).

I wouldn't draft DeAngelo though.

P.S.

When I do anything, I’m just another black kid with attitude. I think I get misunderstood because these guys want to figure me out without talking to me and try to come up with every single reason why there’s something wrong with me.

If in 2014 we still have this problem in hockey, we're in trouble.

 

[Cush]

A center, a center, my Crusader Kings 2 Kingdom for a center

 

[SimplySensational]

Interesting article on Ho-Sang:

http://www.torontosun.com/2014/06/24/the-curious-case-of-controversial-nhl-prospect-joshua-ho-sang

Haven't followed his story too closely, but is this a Kabanov-ish scenario?

Egomaniacal loser...

 

[Halpysback*]

Interesting article on Ho-Sang:

http://www.torontosun.com/2014/06/24/the-curious-case-of-controversial-nhl-prospect-joshua-ho-sang

Haven't followed his story too closely, but is this a Kabanov-ish scenario?

Can't have him, need more humble followers

 

[Cush]

Button has the Caps taking Honka

 

[usiel]

Button has the Caps taking Honka

TROLL PICK I TELL YA!

 

[Cush]

TROLL PICK I TELL YA!

5'11, the new 6'6

 

[usiel]

5'11, the new 6'6

Caps are going to buck the trend and attempt to field all sub 6 foot dmen.

 

[ChibiPooky]

I'm increasingly fond of trading down to take Barbashev, whatever defenseman at the top of the 2nd, and Kamenev with the other second round pick.

 

[pman25]

I feel like Barbashev won't slip by Detroit. I think he is a top 15 player so if the caps are targeting him in a trade down, then I have my doubts he would still be available. If they like him, take him at 13. I wouldn't be opposed to a trade down however, but I don't even know if any teams would be interested in trading up

 

[Holtbyisms]

Interesting article on Ho-Sang:

http://www.torontosun.com/2014/06/24/the-curious-case-of-controversial-nhl-prospect-joshua-ho-sang

Haven't followed his story too closely, but is this a Kabanov-ish scenario?

I like his attitude actually...with a fairly adequate pool of talent in the pipeline why not take a risk at a boom or bust pick if we can't find a way to parlay it into a current nhl defender(which should be option #1)? By the time the majority of the guys we pick this draft are able to play large rules at the nhl level our rapidly closing window may be shut already.