2014-2015 Odds to Win the Stanley Cup

[Feed Me A Stray Cat]

50% of the time they made it to the playoffs was last year alone. That is exactly what I was commenting on and is relevant to their current roster.

What does their total amount of playoffs appearances as a franchise have anything to do with the current roster?

Even if last year was only 10% of their playoff appearances, it should not change anyone's analysis.

 

[Richer's Ghost]

sure - playoff experience counts for nothing. Nothing at all.
They're locks to make it to the finals.

 

[Feed Me A Stray Cat]

sure - playoff experience counts for nothing. Nothing at all.
They're locks to make it to the finals.

I never said playoff experience doesn't matter (it matters a little, but is incredibly overrated). I'm saying that playoff experience on a given team from 2000 to 2010 probably isn't particularly relevant in 2014.

The Devils are without four of their top five goal scorers from the 11-12 cup team. The starting goalie is different. The defense is much younger. Does the 11-12 have any real relation the 14-15 team?

 

[StnTwnDevil]

Montreal and Colorado are both probably the 2 most overated. Both of them overachieved, Montreal more so. Its not to say I don't think a team like Colorado can't be a real contender in the near future. At this point in time though, they both spend too much time defending in their own zone. They can squeak by some teams by being opportunistic, but they'd be lucky to really go deep. The teams with a bit of talent and that ability to control games are the real contenders.

In the East, my top 5 odds list would be:

1)BOS
2)NYR
3)PIT(can move up depending on impact of changes made)
4)TB,DET,CBJ,NJ,MTL
5)NYI,PHI,WAS

Other than the top 3 teams, its a crap-shoot. TB might be able to separate themselves, but I'm not sold yet. I was disappointed in their series against MTL last year. They did improve this off-season, not sure how much though. Unfortunately, I think those top 3 teams will be in the final 4 of the East again, unless another team emerges that matches up well against them. I do think the Devils are one of those teams that can take down Pittsburgh and the NYR, but Boston..... not so much.

 

[DieSuperFly]

La Chi Bos and Pit.

Exactly who should be at the top. NYR doesnt have the center depth to compete with Pit this year, assuming everyone is healthy.

 

[Emperoreddy]

Montreal and Colorado are both probably the 2 most overated. Both of them overachieved, Montreal more so. Its not to say I don't think a team like Colorado can't be a real contender in the near future. At this point in time though, they both spend too much time defending in their own zone. They can squeak by some teams by being opportunistic, but they'd be lucky to really go deep. The teams with a bit of talent and that ability to control games are the real contenders.

In the East, my top 5 odds list would be:

1)BOS
2)NYR
3)PIT(can move up depending on impact of changes made)
4)TB,DET,CBJ,NJ,MTL
5)NYI,PHI,WAS

Other than the top 3 teams, its a crap-shoot. TB might be able to separate themselves, but I'm not sold yet. I was disappointed in their series against MTL last year. They did improve this off-season, not sure how much though. Unfortunately, I think those top 3 teams will be in the final 4 of the East again, unless another team emerges that matches up well against them. I do think the Devils are one of those teams that can take down Pittsburgh and the NYR, but Boston..... not so much.

Boston is weaker this year but we match up terribly with them. I don't think this year's rags team is better then last years and unless the new coach in Pitt brings changes I don't see them as anything but the 2nd round exits they have always been.

Boston is the favorite but I see the easy being pretty wide open with more then a few dark horses Tampa being one of them.

 

[StnTwnDevil]

Boston is weaker this year but we match up terribly with them. I don't think this year's rags team is better then last years and unless the new coach in Pitt brings changes I don't see them as anything but the 2nd round exits they have always been.

Boston is the favorite but I see the easy being pretty wide open with more then a few dark horses Tampa being one of them.

I think the Rangers lost a bit of their playoff strength with some of the players they lost. A lot of it is match-ups and luck, which they got. But I still think they have a strong core. I do think BOS and the Rangers have separated themselves from the rest of the East a bit, Rangers less so. But to put it in perspective, BOS would probably come in 3rd-ish in the West while the Rangers would fall 6-7th. So I do agree the East is wide open. Those teams leading the East are definitely beatable. The separation I'm talking about isn't that much.

 

[Tedenboozled]

71/1? I hate you guys and your fancy Vegas odds, I got on at 50/1 last week.

In all seriousness, seeing as the division winner market is now settled including the postseason, why haven't you all put money on us at 10/1 alongside a little dabble on the 71/1 cup line each-way? If we can get in, 10/1 isn't terrible odds to win 2 rounds

 

[slammer]

Funny how these odds describe teams who get a lot of new players, even coaches, without never seeing them play. this is like looking into a glassball.

 

[Captain Lou]

These are NOT power rankings! This is an estimate of how much money people will bet on a given team to win the Cup.

If more people start betting on a team, their odds will drop. The opposite is true as well. If there is a market inefficiency and the odds of a team winning the Cup is too high, then I suggest you go to Vegas and put your money down before everyone else figures it out too!

 

[BenedictGomez]

These are NOT power rankings! This is an estimate of how much money people will bet on a given team to win the Cup.

If more people start betting on a team, their odds will drop. The opposite is true as well. If there is a market inefficiency and the odds of a team winning the Cup is too high, then I suggest you go to Vegas and put your money down before everyone else figures it out too!

Exactly.

And the dumbest long-running bet I can remember was the odds for Tiger Woods to win each week's PGA event when he was in his prime. It was always about 2-1, which are HORRIBLE odds on golf, an event with > 100 competitors. He'd have to win a ridiculous number of events on tour just for you to break even! But since there are so many Tiger Woods fans, the money would flow in.

 

[Tedenboozled]

Exactly.

And the dumbest long-running bet I can remember was the odds for Tiger Woods to win each week's PGA event when he was in his prime. It was always about 2-1, which are HORRIBLE odds on golf, an event with > 100 competitors. He'd have to win a ridiculous number of events on tour just for you to break even! But since there are so many Tiger Woods fans, the money would flow in.

>land of the free

American books are hilarious. They price based on where the money is going as opposed to actually, you know, trying to predict what's going to happen. I would make bank so hard if I could register to an American bookie and bet in-play. There's a reason the only way gambling is profitable in America is by only making it legal in places that people go to in order to make stupid decisions to begin with

And if you could get 2/1 on Tiger in his prime, I don't even want to know how **** the odds were on Phil Taylor to win anything ever in the 2000's. Most Euro books wouldn't price Tiger even as low as 4/1 during his heyday

 

[BenedictGomez]

>land of the free

American books are hilarious. They price based on where the money is going as opposed to actually, you know, trying to predict what's going to happen. I would make bank so hard if I could register to an American bookie and bet in-play. There's a reason the only way gambling is profitable in America is by only making it legal in places that people go to in order to make stupid decisions to begin with

You have absolutely no idea what you're talking about.

 

[tycobb]

You have absolutely no idea what you're talking about.

Yea these prices are set to get a lot of bets but they are like power rankings.

http://www.vegasinsider.com/nhl/odds/futures/

They are generally done in tiers. So the favorites in this book has Bruins, Blackhawks, and Kings as 8/1.

Personally if I were to bet I would pick the top tier so (10 bucks for each Bruins, Blackhawks, Kings). Then I will spread 5 other 10 bets on the other clubs. So I bet 80 bucks and break even if Bruins, Blackhawks or Kings win it.

According to this line the SJS are way to high, but everything else makes sense.

 

[Tedenboozled]

You have absolutely no idea what you're talking about.

If you can be bothered, go look up the prices in Euro books and you'll see what I mean. The top 2 tiers odds are pretty consistent, but everything thereafter is either stupid value or stupid low. Why else would any sane bookie place us on the same tier as the oilers?

Most bookies I use have us in at around 50/1 with some combination of Toronto/Washington/Columbus/Arizona

Oh and to further the fact that I'm clueless, I know for a fact that the Euro books set their SP's according to Vegas' July prices, so the Devils did get a bump. We didn't get weaker since, so the odds movement has to be to bait bettors.

 

[Feed Me A Stray Cat]

Yea these prices are set to get a lot of bets but they are like power rankings.

http://www.vegasinsider.com/nhl/odds/futures/

They are generally done in tiers. So the favorites in this book has Bruins, Blackhawks, and Kings as 8/1.

Personally if I were to bet I would pick the top tier so (10 bucks for each Bruins, Blackhawks, Kings). Then I will spread 5 other 10 bets on the other clubs. So I bet 80 bucks and break even if Bruins, Blackhawks or Kings win it.

According to this line the SJS are way to high, but everything else makes sense.

Good strategy, that's what I did with the world cup.