Speculation: 2014-15 Central Standings

[Stars99Lobo37]

I have high hopes for the next Minny GDT.

The pressureeeeee.

 

[Satan]

Minnesota Wild is the greatest hockey team on Earth.

 

[MetalGodAOD*]

Not really the the more people that doubt them. The better their chances are.

I'm pretty sure fans on HF boards doubting a team has nothing to do with real life success.

 

[Rune Forumwalker]

I think I might have angered a local wild fan.

If I had the opportunity, I'd take another pro sports team away from Minnesota.

 

[DaStars99]

If I had the opportunity, I'd take another pro sports team away from Minnesota.

 

[Sports]

1. St. Louis
2. Chicago
.
3. Dallas
4. Minnesota/Colorado
5. Colorado/Minnesota
.
6. Nashville
.
7. Winnipeg

 

[Dr Pepper]

I kinda feel bad for the Jets.

That "new team smell" has definitely worn off, and did you see that interview with Evander Kane? Pretty damn embarrassing, you can tell he doesn't want to be there.

 

[Falco Lombardi]

Didn't vote in your poll, but was interested in the results. Dallas seems to be considered one of the biggest winners of the offseason, so I thought the votes would reflect a more optimistic view than 3rd/4th place.

Regardless, you're going to be a tough opponent for everyone.....just like every other team in this ridiculous division

For the record, I like your team more than Minnesotas and I think you could definitely move past Colorado as well. I would probably predict a 3rd place finish for the Stars but it wouldn't be a total shock to see them surpass us or Chicago either.

 

[Stars99Lobo37]

I would probably predict a 3rd place finish for the Stars but it wouldn't be a total shock to see them surpass us or Chicago either.

Won't happen til our young D gets here or until Nill decides he doesn't want to wait.

 

[piqued]

Dallas seems to be considered one of the biggest winners of the offseason, so I thought the votes would reflect a more optimistic view than 3rd/4th place.

Well we've constructed the Death Star of forward talent but our defense still consists of unshielded exhaust ports.

 

[Klockis]

Well we've constructed the Death Star of forward talent but our defense still consists of unshielded exhaust ports.

Perfect

 

[Captain Awesome]

Well we've constructed the Death Star of forward talent but our defense still consists of unshielded exhaust ports.

Doesn't matter, the shots will be one in a million, and AFAIK Datsyuk is the only jedi knight in the league.

 

[Alistar]

St. Louis will be a difficult team to predict, but I can see two reasons to think Dallas may have a chance to pass them in the standings this year

1) They had some of the better puck luck in the league last year, as they lead the league in shooting percentage for most of the year. They ended up in 3rd place for shooting percentage (behind Anaheim and Colorado) as the offense dried up near the end of the season, causing that little skid in the standings. So basically what I'm trying to get at is that much like Colorado, I don't believe they were actually as far ahead of the Dallas Stars of 2013-14 as the standings would have indicated at first glance. It's definitely easier to imagine the Stars making up nearly 20 points of ground in the standings if you consider that the Blues are likely to drop back of where they were last year independent of any roster decisions.

2) They've made a terrible gamble with their goaltending. Quite frankly Brian Elliott is a significantly below average starting NHL goaltender, who has posted a below average even strength save percentage every year he's been in the league besides that one miracle season in 2011-12, and Jake Allen has not shown anything at the AHL or NHL levels previously to suggest that he's going to be able to step in if Elliott can't give the Blues consistent goaltending. This is one of the more glaring examples in recent memory of a good team with a major hole in the roster that could be their undoing.

The Stars were already in the same neighbourhood as the blues at even strength play. Last season the Blues were 7th in the league at even strength fenwick ratio in close games, and the Stars were 9th. If we get the promised improvement on special teams and Kari Lehtonen can stay healthy there's no reason to think the Stars can't make a move in the decision.


My predictions (based on some statistical modeling I did)

1. Chicago - best overall team in the league

2. St. Louis
3. Dallas
-had these two teams pretty much a coin flip. I think I'll believe the Stars can get every facet of their team working at the same time and take that next step when it actually happens

4. Nashville - probably a surprise pick, but I believe their team was undone by bad goaltending last season, and were surprisingly decent at even strength.

5. Colorado - I'm picking them to flame out of the playoffs in hilarious fashion. Taking their two best even strength forwards and replacing them with ancient Jarome Iginla and ancient Daniel Briere should work out great guys (it will not work out great)

6. Minnesota - another team that played over their heads last season, but looked better in the playoffs. I'm predicting that they stay mediocre to below average at even strength, and that will be reflected more accurately in the standings.

7. Winnipeg - a team going nowhere. The major problem is that they have the worst starting goaltender in the league.. yes probably even worse than Brian Elliott. they will also be below average at even strength play, and seem to have a death wish to run their best forward out of town. Probably the team in the division with the least chance of doing anything.

 

[Stars99Lobo37]

5. Colorado - I'm picking them to flame out of the playoffs in hilarious fashion. Taking their two best even strength forwards and replacing them with ancient Jarome Iginla and ancient Daniel Briere should work out great guys (it will not work out great)

Don't tell Adrian Dater this! He'll flip.

 

[glovesave_35]

If everything Alistar said about Colorado in the previous season is true they shouldn't even sniff the playoffs. Will be interesting to see.

 

[Alistar]

If everything Alistar said about Colorado in the previous season is true they shouldn't even sniff the playoffs. Will be interesting to see.

Everything I said about Colorado last season was true, I always argue from the stats and the stats told us very simply that the Avalanche were nowhere near as good as their record last season. Not a surprise to see them put out in the 1st round by a mediocre Minnesota team.

I actually think they could be a better overall team than they were last season and still end up missing the playoffs if the percentages and goaltending isn't so heavily in their favour. The guys they've brought in however don't lend much confidence that they will be improved over last year.. I mean Brad Stuart and Daniel Briere are just terrible, and Iginla needs someone else to drive the play at this point in his career. Driving the play is the major weakness of this team - much like Toronto they spend most of the time in their own end at even strength.

 

[glovesave_35]

You think Duchene, MacKinnon, or O'Reilly might be able to drive the play for Iginla?

 

[Alistar]

You think Duchene, MacKinnon, or O'Reilly might be able to drive the play for Iginla?

The only one of those three that have shown that ability in their careers so far is O'Reilly, and he's more of a defense-first type that is best used in his own end. I doubt that Iginla ends up on a line with him.

MacKinnon may very well develop into that kind of player, but in his rookie season (as you should probably expect from an 18 year old player in a men's league) he pretty much got his ass kicked in possession. He and Duchene are examples of elite finishers, but with respect you don't want either of them responsible for being the main engine on a line... atleast in the past when they've been up against good competition it hasn't worked out well for the Avs. That was something Paul Stastny did very well, but he's long gone now, and O'Reilly is the only guy left on their team who I would consider a good possession forward with Parenteau also being traded away in the summer.

There is no doubt that Iginla really benefited from getting the large majority of his zone starts and ice time in the attacking end, and Boston had the kind of players who could keep the puck down there. It's questionable if Colorado can do the same, so I would not be at all surprised if he has what most people would consider a disappointing season this year.

 

[Note Worthy]

Let me start by saying I agree with a lot of what is said in here and I think the Stars are the most improved team in the offseason and should be fighting for a top three spot in the Central. So I'm not coming at this from an angry standpoint; just wanted to comment.

as the offense dried up near the end of the season, causing that little skid in the standings.

The offensive did dry up but this is because we lost seven...7...forwards at the end of the season heading into the playoffs. Our top 9 was laughable. That's was the reason for the skid. I can't imagine losing seven forwards at the same time again but...eh.

2) They've made a terrible gamble with their goaltending. Quite frankly Brian Elliott is a significantly below average starting NHL goaltender, who has posted a below average even strength save percentage every year he's been in the league besides that one miracle season in 2011-12, and Jake Allen has not shown anything at the AHL or NHL levels previously to suggest that he's going to be able to step in if Elliott can't give the Blues consistent goaltending. This is one of the more glaring examples in recent memory of a good team with a major hole in the roster that could be their undoing.

This is mostly not true. As far as the NHL level he has a handful of games that he performed well in but I'll give that because it was such a small sample size. However, he was the AHL Goalie of the Year last year. I'm not sure what more else he could of done down there to be more prepared in your eyes.

 

[Satan]

lirl I just saw that Jake Allen comment. The guy always looked like a future #1 stud.

 

[Alistar]

This is mostly not true. As far as the NHL level he has a handful of games that he performed well in but I'll give that because it was such a small sample size. However, he was the AHL Goalie of the Year last year. I'm not sure what more else he could of done down there to be more prepared in your eyes.

I wouldn't call a .905 save percentage in 15 games performing well.. I mean it is by the standards of our backup goaltenders, but that's not something that shouts out to me that he will be ready to make the jump to starting goaltender for an elite team the very next year.

As for the AHL, yeah he had a good season, but we have a full 172 games of AHL data to work with for Allen, and for all the seasons before this one his numbers were average or below average. I can buy a great season at the AHL level leading to a job as a backup goaltender in the NHL, but if they suddenly need him to step in as the #1 I'll still have my concerns. The numbers for Allen in the QMJHL don't exactly jump off the page either, although it's tough to judge junior stats because of how incompetent teenagers typically are at playing an organized defense.

We have a hard enough time predicting the performance of goaltenders who have 5+ seasons of NHL experience outside of the obviously awesome (Lundqvist, Rask, Luongo back in the day) and the obviously terrible (Ondrej Pavelec), I don't see how anyone could have much confidence in a goaltender with 15 games experience at the NHL taking the responsibility of backstopping a strong team to the playoffs - at which point they'd be expected to advance a round. I don't see anything controversial with my statement at all, which as you'll recall was about the suitability of the Blues' options at starting goaltender.

Mostly goaltenders are just impossible to predict. It seems like the 30 year old journeyman from Sweden can be just as likely to be the next starting goaltender in the NHL as the top prospect. It will be one of the interesting stories in the division if the Blues find themselves under-performing this year because of goaltending and they need to make yet another trade to bring in a proven starter.

 

[Note Worthy]

I wouldn't call a .905 save percentage in 15 games performing well.. I mean it is by the standards of our backup goaltenders, but that's not something that shouts out to me that he will be ready to make the jump to starting goaltender for an elite team the very next year.

As for the AHL, yeah he had a good season, but we have a full 172 games of AHL data to work with for Allen, and for all the seasons before this one his numbers were average or below average. I can buy a great season at the AHL level leading to a job as a backup goaltender in the NHL, but if they suddenly need him to step in as the #1 I'll still have my concerns. The numbers for Allen in the QMJHL don't exactly jump off the page either, although it's tough to judge junior stats because of how incompetent teenagers typically are at playing an organized defense.

We have a hard enough time predicting the performance of goaltenders who have 5+ seasons of NHL experience outside of the obviously awesome (Lundqvist, Rask, Luongo back in the day) and the obviously terrible (Ondrej Pavelec), I don't see how anyone could have much confidence in a goaltender with 15 games experience at the NHL taking the responsibility of backstopping a strong team to the playoffs - at which point they'd be expected to advance a round. I don't see anything controversial with my statement at all, which as you'll recall was about the suitability of the Blues' options at starting goaltender.

Mostly goaltenders are just impossible to predict. It seems like the 30 year old journeyman from Sweden can be just as likely to be the next starting goaltender in the NHL as the top prospect. It will be one of the interesting stories in the division if the Blues find themselves under-performing this year because of goaltending and they need to make yet another trade to bring in a proven starter.

I don't see what choice the Blues had.

We aren't going to pay Miller a ton (and really couldn't afford to anyway while going after Stastny, a much bigger need) when he didn't play well for us. We aren't going to keep Jake Allen in the AHL for another year and stint his growth after, I feel, proving his ready for the NHL.

Not to mention Elliott has performed very well for us even in the stretches where Halak went down and he had to be the starter. He out performed Miller for us last year and cost less than half as much to sign. If we would have re-signed Miller then Allen would have also have to be his backup for the next 3 years or whatever. Our management feels Allen will be more than ready by then and don't want him regulated to a backup for long.

Every year the Blues issues have been scoring and not goal tending which is why a lot of us were upset we even went after Miller.

I don't see what choices the Blues brass had.

 

[Alistar]

I don't see what choices the Blues brass had.

Keeping Halak, ditching Elliott and letting Allen back up the established starting goaltender at the NHL level would have been a much better option. That trade last year was idiotic - Halak has a better career overall / even strength save percentage than Miller, and he would have been your cheap short term option as a bridge. Elliott can serve the same purpose if you're sure Allen will be a star in a couple years, but there is no argument from the stats that the Blues will be better off with Elliott over that time over Halak.

The difference in salaries for Halak vs. Elliott shouldn't have been a problem, the Blues had plenty of money for Steve Ott.

 

[Note Worthy]

Keeping Halak, ditching Elliott and letting Allen back up the established starting goaltender at the NHL level would have been a much better option. That trade last year was idiotic - Halak has a better career overall / even strength save percentage than Miller, and he would have been your cheap short term option as a bridge. Elliott can serve the same purpose if you're sure Allen will be a star in a couple years, but there is no argument from the stats that the Blues will be better off with Elliott over that time over Halak.

The difference in salaries for Halak vs. Elliott shouldn't have been a problem, the Blues had plenty of money for Steve Ott.

Yes, and like I said most Blues fans were against trading for Miller. We knew we needed a scoring/better center and not a goaltender. But it is what it is.

I agree goaltending is our biggest issue but I'm still not too concerned about it.