Prospect Info: 2013 HF Mock Draft: 16th Overall

[Jame]

Their are 5-6 I would consider here.

Pulock
Morrissey
Lazar
Burakovsky
Zykov

Edit: Erne is leading? I didn't even consider him here, his production was quite poor aside from December I believe..I didn't see much progression from him since he broke into the QMJHL. I guess a team could like him enough to pick him this highly though

He increased his pts per game by 23%
.85 to 1.05 per game

His production was fine through Oct-Jan... it was February/March where his production fell off...which was after the "Suspension Incident" in late January.

That incident is driving the drop in his rankings, stupidly I might add.

 

[Jame]

You're giving yourself way too much credit. This is a worst case scenario, all of the players I really wanted are gone by 8, we stand pat and reach big time at 16 type of draft. Fact is, I think highly of Risto, just that I think much more highly of the 7 that went before him in this mock.

So, you would slit your wrists unless the 7 teams in front of Buffalo do something stupid

 

[sabresEH]

If we go D at 16 then Morrissey is the way to go.

 

[Moskau]

I don't know what caused people to sour so quickly on Erne. I have a feeling it's the overblown 1 game suspension, that was retracted before being served..... and that thing that happens every year where the late risers start to get overrated, and the guys that were 2nd/3rd tier 1st rounders start to drop as the overrated guys get the late hype....

What late risers? Lazar and Pulock were both rated as high as top 5 picks last year.

What is causing Erne to fall is that he hasn't had combine interviews yet. It remains to be seen if the on ice Erik Cole comparisons blur over into the off ice Erik Cole comparisons.

For someone so high on Ryan Callahan it's odd you would take Erne over Lazar. But then again you're very high on Ryan O'Reilly but don't want Bo Horvat.

Lazar has done everything asked of him as a junior player including switch roles and positions with a smile on his face even though they had the potential to hurt his draft stock. His offensive ceiling is not that much lower than Erne either. His two way play is better (Erne isn't a slouch) he's great at winning key draws, he can hit and he will stand in front of a bus to win a Hockey game. The potential 10-15 pts a season Erne may have over Lazar does not make up the fact that Lazar is better than Erne at every other facet of the game. And to be quite honest I would take Lazar's offensive skill set translating over to the NHL just as much as I would take Erne's.

 

[1972]

Lazar will be one of the most popular players on his team and a fan favorite, he is a winner. Erne seems like abit of a self centered stat chaser

I honestly think if he were not playing behind St. CROIX that his point totals would be much better and we wouldn't have a chance to get him at 16, I actually think he is top 15.

Horvat at #8 and Lazar at #16 would make team pretty ****ing difficult to play against and make home games fun to attend again.

Horvat Girgensons Lazar

 

[Jame]

What late risers? Lazar and Pulock were both rated as high as top 5 picks last year.

That statement wasn't in the context of Pulock/Lazar... but in the context of those who don't believe he is a mid 1st rounder. Or think he doesn't belong in the 1st at all. Lazar was a late teens/early 20s prospect in most rankings at the mid year... and he remains there now.

What is causing Erne to fall is that he hasn't had combine interviews yet. It remains to be seen if the on ice Erik Cole comparisons blur over into the off ice Erik Cole comparisons.

Erne was a top 10-15 prospect at the mid terms.... he fell to the late 20s/30s.... because of the incident in January. There is no other explanation at all.

For someone so high on Ryan Callahan it's odd you would take Erne over Lazar. But then again you're very high on Ryan O'Reilly but don't want Bo Horvat.

Remind me what round Callahan and Oreilly were drafted in?
(4th and 2nd)

Callahan is an interesting comparison though.

Lazar has done everything asked of him as a junior player including switch roles and positions with a smile on his face even though they had the potential to hurt his draft stock. His offensive ceiling is not that much lower than Erne either. His two way play is better (Erne isn't a slouch) he's great at winning key draws, he can hit and he will stand in front of a bus to win a Hockey game. The potential 10-15 pts a season Erne may have over Lazar does not make up the fact that Lazar is better than Erne at every other facet of the game. And to be quite honest I would take Lazar's offensive skill set translating over to the NHL just as much as I would take Erne's.

I like Lazar. I think he is like Jeff Carter-lite. High end release, and ability to go wide. Lacking in offensive awareness, and little playmaking skill. He's a 2 way, tenacious, scorer... what's not to like?

Lazar is a guy who could top out as a guy who plays against top competition and makes their night difficult, while chipping in secondary goal scoring.

Erne could top out as the guy Lazar is sent out on the ice to match up against.

That's a big difference to me... (given Buffalo's needs, and current pipeline)

even though I would agree that Lazar is more likely to reach his ceiling, than Erne is...

 

[Chainshot]

If we go D at 16 then Morrissey is the way to go.

If you go D here, it's Pulock. He appears to be the better all around prospect at this point. I have to admit, when I looked at the list, I didn't scroll up enough or he'd have been my vote.

 

[Moskau]

Erne was a top 10-15 prospect at the mid terms.... he fell to the late 20s/30s.... because of the incident in January. There is no other explanation at all.

Right which is what I meant. He's falling because he hasn't been able to explain himself yet. If interviews go well he will be selected in the top 20. If they go badly he may see his name called in the 2nd. There's so much mystery involved in the suspension but there have been rumblings since that he and Duclair are not that well liked by their teammates. Erne can be quite a selfish player at times which is fine for someone his age but scouts and GMs are going to want to see if the Erik Cole comparisons stop at their playing style. "Useful competitor on the ice, terrible human off it" have been used to describe Cole more than once.

Remind me what round Callahan and Oreilly were drafted in?
(4th and 2nd)

And if they were drafted today? Are you saying Marek Zagrapan would be selected in the 1st round again knowing what we now know? Didn't think so.

 

[Jame]

Right which is what I meant. He's falling because he hasn't been able to explain himself yet. If interviews go well he will be selected in the top 20. If they go badly he may see his name called in the 2nd. There's so much mystery involved in the suspension but there have been rumblings since that he and Duclair are not that well liked by their teammates.

Maybe Lefebre, Houde, Carrier are bitter, undrafteds?

Maybe there is a reason Roy rescinded the suspension after further investigation?

And if they were drafted today? Are you saying Marek Zagrapan would be selected in the 1st round again knowing what we now know? Didn't think so.

Lazar is a guy who could top out as a guy who plays against top competition and makes their night difficult, while chipping in secondary goal scoring.

Erne could top out as the guy Lazar is sent out on the ice to match up against.

That's a big difference to me... (given Buffalo's needs, and current pipeline)

even though I would agree that Lazar is more likely to reach his ceiling, than Erne is...

 

[Moskau]

Maybe Lefebre, Houde, Carrier are bitter, undrafteds?
Maybe there is a reason Roy rescinded the suspension after further investigation?

I have no clue and neither does anyone else but those involved. But it seems that until teams get a good read on the kid through interviews he wont be as rated as highly on scouting lists as he could or should be. Buffalo should have a better read on him than any team out there save for the Avalanche.

Many scouts are uninformed and not given personal information about prospects so they can either choose to believe that Erne has character issues with his teammates, or they can choose to believe that Erne and Duclair took the fall for a larger group as those are the 2 stories that have been spread. It wont be until the interview process that this will be sorted.

My liking of Lazar over Erne has very little to do with this although it intrigues me. I just like Lazar better as a player overall.

 

[DJN21]

Erne.

 

[Beerz]

Are character issues outside of work ethic even a factor when rankings come into play? I was under the impression that these rankings like ISS are based solely on skill, hockey sense and work ethic...?

 

[gallagt01]

Are character issues outside of work ethic even a factor when rankings come into play? I was under the impression that these rankings like ISS are based solely on skill, hockey sense and work ethic...?

I'd guess that they're certainly considered, but they don't hold nearly as much weight as they do in, say, the NFL. Probably because these are 18-year-old players. Fresh out of high school. Maturation is expected.

 

[Chainshot]

Are character issues outside of work ethic even a factor when rankings come into play? I was under the impression that these rankings like ISS are based solely on skill, hockey sense and work ethic...?

ISS is akin to all the other scouting providers -- they make their judgements and rank based on their own opinions. Any and all factors come into play. CSB, ISS, RedLine, FC, McKeens, TSN, THN, everyone basically comes up with their own thing. What starts to happen typically is that lists get homogenous -- that's why some of the individual scouting list rankings get so much commentary because the homogenous nature of things leads to conflict in the minds of those reading it.

 

[Beerz]

ISS is akin to all the other scouting providers -- they make their judgements and rank based on their own opinions. Any and all factors come into play. CSB, ISS, RedLine, FC, McKeens, TSN, THN, everyone basically comes up with their own thing. What starts to happen typically is that lists get homogenous -- that's why some of the individual scouting list rankings get so much commentary because the homogenous nature of things leads to conflict in the minds of those reading it.

Makes sense. I suppose its impossible for outside factors not to come into play...even if its subconsciously.

 

[-DeMo-]

thanks for the participation and very tight race but

with the 16th Overall pick the Buffalo Sabres Select Adam Erne

 

[kenfury]

I know it is not allowed for someone to change their mind on the internet but the more I have been looking at Zykov the more I like his game. Plus he plays LW which we the pipeline is thin on.

 

[Zip15]

I know it is not allowed for someone to change their mind on the internet but the more I have been looking at Zykov the more I like his game. Plus he plays LW which we the pipeline is thin on.

I think we're in better shape at LW than RW. Beyond Armia, there isn't much on the right side. We traded Poms, and people want Stafford gone yesterday. Outside of Armia, we have nobody in the organization who projects as a solid top-6 RW. (I don't think Flynn will make it there consistently, and I think Tropp is a bottom-6 player.)

On LW, we have Ennis and Foligno (both still young), Leino, Vanek, Catenacci, and likely one of Girgensons/Larsson. I think RW is a much bigger need than LW.

 

[joshjull]

I think we're in better shape at LW than RW. Beyond Armia, there isn't much on the right side. We traded Poms, and people want Stafford gone yesterday. Outside of Armia, we have nobody in the organization who projects as a solid top-6 RW. (I don't think Flynn will make it there consistently, and I think Tropp is a bottom-6 player.)

On LW, we have Ennis and Foligno (both still young), Leino, Vanek, Catenacci, and likely one of Girgensons/Larsson. I think RW is a much bigger need than LW.

Just to play devils advocate both Leino and Vanek can and have played RW. In fact Leino has said he prefers it over LW.

I don't think we should worry too much over what wing a player plays when drafting to be honest.

 

[sabresEH]

If you go D here, it's Pulock. He appears to be the better all around prospect at this point. I have to admit, when I looked at the list, I didn't scroll up enough or he'd have been my vote.

I get hard ons for smooth skating d-men. Admittedly I don't know much about Pulock but everytime I watch Morrissey I leave wanting him on Buffalo.

 

[cybresabre]

I get hard ons for smooth skating d-men. Admittedly I don't know much about Pulock but everytime I watch Morrissey I leave wanting him on Buffalo.

I am not a scout and I have only seen highlights and read scouting reports, but he is intriguing. Sounds like he isn't shy about shooting or getting aggressively involved offensively.

I can't seem to embed a clip that will play specific times, but he has some nice hits at :50, 1:35, 3:10 and showed nice wheels on an OT breakaway goal at 3:13.

He does fail my twitter your/you're test, but he was the 2013 CHL Scholastic Player of the Year.

 

[Dutchess]

If we go D at 8, then gimme Lazar. If we go forward, gimme Pulock at 16 and let me be happy.

 

[mike8219]

Valentin Zykov