OT: 2012-13 Lockout Discussion Part XI: The "Please make it stop" edition.

[Tawnos]

I think you may be lowballing our RFAs as well. Both Hagelin and McDonagh will be arbitration eligible. If McD goes to arbitration, he's going to get more than 3.5 mil, even under the new cap structure. If Stepan puts up 70 points, 2.6 mil might not get it done, though maybe Sather can convince him to take a short term deal.

Basically, if your projections are short even 1 mil, it won't work. It's debatable that it will work even as you drew it up, since using the bonus cushion might just push the problem into the following year (since we don't know how much the cap will go up) when other players need to be paid.

If the cap is set at 60 mil for 13-14, we are going to lose someone. But I don't think the cap will be that low. The NHL will come up a little bit.

Maybe someone should suggest that whatever cap dollars aren't used this year (up to a certain amount...maybe 5 mil?) can be applied to next year as a way to bridge the gap. The actual numbers don't change from the NHL's POV. It's still a total of 130, but teams can do 65, 65 instead of 70, 60.

What a great idea. Good job.

As for lowballing, I disagree. As good as Hagelin was, I don't see him putting up numbers this year that would suggest he's going to even get what Dubi did in his second deal ($1.8m). And my Stepan number is if he improves on last years total. Equivalent to 70 points might push him up that high, but I doubt he's going to do that.

As for McDonagh, I think arbiters will look at what Staal makes in his RFA years and give him that (Staals RFA years average to $3.6m). If McDonagh wants to sign a deal that takes him to UFA status, he will take slightly less than he would get in arbitration.

I could be wrong, but I don't feel like I lowballed these guys.

 

[McSauer]

I've strayed away from the boards since the summer but figured i'd stop in to drop this little tidbit. Basically there's just some few very small things to go over and an agreement has all but been reached. The NHL contacted the refs today and let them know the season will be underway in about 10-14 days. If you recall I'm the one that told everyone Marty was going to test the FA waters and everybody basically called me a complete moron, so take it for what it's worth. Get ready boys, hockey's back!

Hey sounds good to me!!

Just which Marty are you talking about? Ruchinsky? Not the biggest loss we suffered

 

[nyr2k2]

As much as I disagree with Tortorella's view on Nash, I do agree that the trade is a disaster if it boils down to losing Gabby, Dubi and Arty for Nash. Nash is great but I don't think he's significantly better than gabby, if at all.

If Slats knows he can't keep Gaborik then he'd be flipped for assets.

 

[LaffyTaffyNYR]

I've strayed away from the boards since the summer but figured i'd stop in to drop this little tidbit. Basically there's just some few very small things to go over and an agreement has all but been reached. The NHL contacted the refs today and let them know the season will be underway in about 10-14 days. If you recall I'm the one that told everyone Marty was going to test the FA waters and everybody basically called me a complete moron, so take it for what it's worth. Get ready boys, hockey's back!

where did you hear that the refs have been called to get ready?

 

[Championship*]

As much as I disagree with Tortorella's view on Nash, I do agree that the trade is a disaster if it boils down to losing Gabby, Dubi and Arty for Nash. Nash is great but I don't think he's significantly better than gabby, if at all.

You're not factoring in what Gaborik would bring back.

 

[BlueshirtBlitz]

If Slats knows he can't keep Gaborik then he'd be flipped for assets.

For me, it's cup or bust the next few seasons. Any assets we get for trading Gabby, I believe, won't benefit the team as much as losing Gaborik would hurt.

Slats could get something real good, but I just don't see it happening.

 

[Thirty One]

I've strayed away from the boards since the summer but figured i'd stop in to drop this little tidbit. Basically there's just some few very small things to go over and an agreement has all but been reached. The NHL contacted the refs today and let them know the season will be underway in about 10-14 days. If you recall I'm the one that told everyone Marty was going to test the FA waters and everybody basically called me a complete moron, so take it for what it's worth. Get ready boys, hockey's back!

I glanced through your post history, I couldn't find where you told everyone Brodeur was going to test the free agent waters. Could you give us that link?

I did find this though:

It's down to Pitt and NJ. NJ made a very competitive offer and that is zach's preferred destination but Pitt blew zach out of the water this afternoon with their terms and the devils simply cannot match it. He's leaning currently towards signing with pitt but before he does it he wants to sleep on it and think it over for tonight. Who knows he could wake up and feel as though nj is his destination

Was your account hacked?

 

[gary laser eyes]

I have a good feeling this will be the last lockout thread.

 

[Thirty One]

As much as I disagree with Tortorella's view on Nash, I do agree that the trade is a disaster if it boils down to losing Gabby, Dubi and Arty for Nash. Nash is great but I don't think he's significantly better than gabby, if at all.

This makes no sense to me.

Dubinsky and Anisimov combine for $6.075 million cap-hit. That's not including the raise Anisimov is sure to get for the 2013-14 season. So that difference of ~$1.7 million is going to be the difference between being keeping Gaborik and having to cut him loose?

 

[Fitzy]

I'm not so sure the return we'd get on a 32 year old, 7.5 million cap hit last year contract Marian Gaborik would be, in a cap retraction year what we might like.

 

[BlueshirtBlitz]

This makes no sense to me.

Dubinsky and Anisimov combine for $6.075 million cap-hit. That's not including the raise Anisimov is sure to get for the 2013-14 season. So that difference of ~$1.7 million is going to be the difference between being keeping Gaborik and having to cut him loose?

I don't think almost 2 mil is negligible in the face of a 60~ million dollar cap when we're right up against the wall.

While you're correct in that it'd also be a tough fit to improve the team if we hadn't made the trade if the cap goes down, I was more looking at it in a vacuum. I think Gabby is better than Nash, and I think swapping them doesn't help the team at all.

 

[YoSoyLalo]

I'm not so sure the return we'd get on a 32 year old, 7.5 million cap hit last year contract Marian Gaborik would be, in a cap retraction year what we might like.

It would be a good return, though, especially if whoever is trading for him is confident they can re-sign him.

Only thing that worries me is his NTC.

 

[LaffyTaffyNYR]

Cryptic tweet from Eklund.

That is all!

 

[KreiMeARiver*]

I'm not so sure the return we'd get on a 32 year old, 7.5 million cap hit last year contract Marian Gaborik would be, in a cap retraction year what we might like.

Well thanks for the tip, Bricktop!

I know, I know, if you throw a dog a bone, you don't want to know if it tastes good. Also, if I stop you again once you're walking, and you'll cut my jacobs off. I get it, I get it.

 

[Ola]

I still think the cap ceiling will be compromised above the $60 million. A lot of teams will be broken up with a $60 million cap. I just don't see it happening. I'd say somewhere around $63-$65 million is what we'll see. Of course this is dependent on getting a deal done now, and not in the Summer.

I am not sure, I guess we have to wait and see. The problem is that all teams that would be broken up almost are the same teams that basically would have signed under on the PA's opening offer. We do not have this lockout because Bettman can't convince those owners to vote for what's on the table.

All those teams that won't sign on to a deal the PA will take are the same teams that gains on a 60m cap. Besides those poor financial teams, a 60m cap could mean a tremendous amount in terms of money and success for two teams like Detroit and Colorado.

Hence I am afraid that we will be put in a bad situation next season (if there is a season this year...).

 

[Ola]

My own belief is that Slats is under the impression that Nash can replace Gaborik's 40 goals while being more of a "Torts guy" on the ice. Nash can kill penalties and brings a physical game that Gaborik could never hope to match. He fits the mold of this team better than Gabby does. Get one season of both, then ship off Gabby for a high-end prospect, picks and/or a 2nd line RW.

I don't love the idea, but that's my take.

It's not like Nash is some guy that came out of nowhere to be the best player in Columbus--the dude was the OHL rookie of the year, number one overall pick, Calder nominee and youngest-ever player to lead the league in goals. He has an impressive resume and there's absolutely zero reason to believe he won't perform on a "real" team.

I prefer Gaborik over Nash as well, but your one particular fear seems to have no basis in reality.

I don't think anything is written in stone. Like I don't think Torts has given up on Gabby. But unless Gabby performs when it matters the most, and not just put up decent stats, but is a factor on the ice -- he is gone.

 

[YoSoyLalo]

David Shoalts @dshoalts
The ball is back in the NHL's court with pensions vying with disclaimer of interest as the big issues of the day. sulia.com/my_thoughts/56…

James Mirtle @mirtle
Not sure why fans so sour about the pension discussions. Players far better off having some of their money funnelled to post-career.

 

[YoSoyLalo]

Cryptic tweet from Eklund.

That is all!

It would be unusual if it weren't cryptic.

 

[Ola]

I'm not so sure the return we'd get on a 32 year old, 7.5 million cap hit last year contract Marian Gaborik would be, in a cap retraction year what we might like.

It all depends on what Gabby does with his NTC...

...if he just waives it, the return would be good. We forget that as NYR fans, we never really face the reality of many clubs. Its downright impossible for many of them to attract any kind of big name UFA's. Hence why Montreal traded for Scott Gomez for example. For 3-4 years Montreal bid for any big names out there, and didn't get any of them basically. Its easy to complain on trading for Gomez, and in hindsight it was a disaster, but for a team like that what's second best is often pretty horrible to. Look at what Calgary has paid for lately. They are almost giving Gabby money to Jiri Hudler...

Since we basically couldn't take money back, or I doubt it would be worth it for us to take money back (the more room we have, the longer we can tie up McD and co, it will definitely come back and hunt us if we only give McD, Stepan and co 1-2 year deals), its hard to speculate on what we might get. But if he waived his NTC completely, the return would definitely be decent.

 

[GAGLine]

This makes no sense to me.

Dubinsky and Anisimov combine for $6.075 million cap-hit. That's not including the raise Anisimov is sure to get for the 2013-14 season. So that difference of ~$1.7 million is going to be the difference between being keeping Gaborik and having to cut him loose?

That's 1.7 extra for 1 less player, unless they plan to play Nash 35+ minutes a night. So in reality it's an extra 2.5 mil or more depending on the replacement.

 

[Thirty One]

That's 1.7 extra for 1 less player, unless they plan to play Nash 35+ minutes a night. So in reality it's an extra 2.5 mil or more depending on the replacement.

Tru dat. Still, if Gaborik is a cap casualty, the Nash trade will be one of many factors that will push him out.

 

[broadwayblue]

We're not trading Gaborik. Nash was brought in to play with him for a couple seasons at least. Marian will be a Ranger through his current deal, if not longer.

 

[YoSoyLalo]

We're not trading Gaborik. Nash was brought in to play with him for a couple seasons at least. Marian will be a Ranger through his current deal, if not longer.

I honestly believe the cap will come in for 13-14 at around $64M, so I'm inclined to agree with you. After his current contract is up, I think he'll take a discount to end his career with the Rangers, something like $5.5M-$6M per year for 5 years.

 

[LaffyTaffyNYR]

People on the main board said Dreger on TSN said still a strong possibility the NHLPA files the DOI tonight.

 

[Levitate]

We're not trading Gaborik. Nash was brought in to play with him for a couple seasons at least. Marian will be a Ranger through his current deal, if not longer.

I tend to agree that his first priority will be to try to keep Gaborik and only trade him if he can't figure out how to make the cap work