2 Things I hope we have learned from this season

[silkyjohnson50]

I thought it was pretty obvious that he was phoning it in last season.

He must be phoning it in this season in Russia as well then.

 

[Pavels Dog]

And if we have a GM that is so scared of missing out on his uninspiring goals that he feels obliged to do things like give Helm 5 year contracts, and Abdelkader 7 year contracts to lock in the continuity of being mediocre, then the whole thing is just super flawed from the top all the way down.

I don't think he thought Helm and Abdelkader were the keys to being a contender or keeping this team from being bad. They're just two guys that he wanted to keep around. Two guys that help more than they hurt no matter whether we're hanging out in the bottom of the standings or going for a playoff run. No reason to think Holland is scared of missing the playoffs, just reasons to think he doesn't want to go into a season saying "we're not trying this year". Giving up before the fact is somewhat cowardly. I think a lot of fans have issues with actually seeing the team fail for the first time in many of their lifetimes, so they want the GM to change the goal into losing before they fail. So the team can succeed at losing, and those fans don't have to feel like their team actually failed since they weren't even trying.

 

[jolly roger]

To the long term tank dreamers...we were always going to attempt a rebuild on the fly while we were good enough to make the playoffs. And with Dats, Hank and kronner, we were always going to try to make the playoffs, partly because with their ability and leadership there was always that Chance to spring an upset, as we would have done against the bolts 2 years ago with competent officiating.

It looks odds in that this is the year. Assuming so, we'll get to know more about KH than his party line sound-bites and the prejudiced ire of armchair GMs.

For me, I would definitely initiate a coaching change before I blew the roster up entirely. If, as it appears we will end the streak this year, I'd still want to keep most of the roster together. Now with the Vegas expansion coming up, it makes sense to trade some pieces for sure, and it's worth management canvassing internally who is up for sticking around during a partial re-build and who isn't. Frankly, if Vanek wants to come back next year, I'd tell him that there is a contract with his name on it after the expansion draft, even if he gets traded to a contender as a rental, because I think his smarts could be invaluable in a minor re-build phase, particularly if he teach Mantha and Svech a thing or two.

But if it's clear that we are going to miss the playoffs by the TDL then for the first time in decades it makes sense to focus ice-time favour of those deemed to be potential future core.

But for all our talent issues, I think coaching is a bigger one, as our PP is dead, only about 1/3 of the roster appears to have defined roles, half of our roster seems to be confused and lacking in confidence, and I sure as hell cant tell what we are trying to to on the ice.

A lucky top 5 pick and a good 2nd round pick up and we could be good for the playoffs again in 2017-18

Great analysis!! I think you nailed it on why a coaching change is required first.
Watching the Wings players trying to figure out what line they're on from game to game ( even from period to period), and overplaying stiffs who can't score, is just more than the fans should have to stand.

Empty seats will drive the change soon.

 

[Henkka]

Great analysis!! I think you nailed it on why a coaching change is required first.
Watching the Wings players trying to figure out what line they're on from game to game ( even from period to period), and overplaying stiffs who can't score, is just more than the fans should have to stand.

Empty seats will drive the change soon.

At first we take the high pick. Only three months of losing left.

Trade deadline:

- sell Green for 1st + extras
- sell Vanek for low 1st or two 2nds
- sell Jurco for 3rd-4th
- sell Smith for 4th-5th + cap dump

Summer:
- Fire Blashill, promote Nelson
- sign Vanek back
- bring some kids in.

Draft 2 prospects in every round of 2017 draft.

 

[Frk It]

At first we take the high pick. Only three months of losing left.

Trade deadline:

- sell Green for 1st + extras
- sell Vanek for low 1st or two 2nds
- sell Jurco for 3rd-4th
- sell Smith for 4th-5th + cap dump

Summer:
- Fire Blashill, promote Nelson
- sign Vanek back
- bring some kids in.

Draft 2 prospects in every round of 2017 draft.

Pretty good plan if we are out of it by a lot at the deadline.

 

[Rzombo4 prez]

At first we take the high pick. Only three months of losing left.

Trade deadline:

- sell Green for 1st + extras
- sell Vanek for low 1st or two 2nds
- sell Jurco for 3rd-4th
- sell Smith for 4th-5th + cap dump

Summer:
- Fire Blashill, promote Nelson
- sign Vanek back
- bring some kids in.

Draft 2 prospects in every round of 2017 draft.

I like your plan, but much of it won't happen. For one, Green won't get moved at the deadline even though I think he should. Ownership isn't going to tear it down until this time next season at the earliest.

I won't cry if Nelson is Blash's successor but I expect the organization to go with someone who has had more NHL head coaching experience. Organizations always overcorrect with these sorts of things.

Sadly, we don't have many kids to bring in at this point.

 

[Run the Jewels]

I like your plan, but much of it won't happen. For one, Green won't get moved at the deadline even though I think he should. Ownership isn't going to tear it down until this time next season at the earliest.

I won't cry if Nelson is Blash's successor but I expect the organization to go with someone who has had more NHL head coaching experience. Organizations always overcorrect with these sorts of things.

Sadly, we don't have many kids to bring in at this point.

The only thing I feel confident in is that Holland will keep our #1. It was be pure lunacy for him to trade what will be our highest draft pick since 1991. My guess is they understand they are not drafting an elite talent outside the top of draft.

Everything beyond that seems dubious to me. I can see Holland trying to make one last run for the playoffs next year in the new barn. I can potentially see Blashill being replaced and that again gives Holland reason to think he can get to the playoffs next year.

The end of year press conference is going to be very interesting. Does Holland give some indication that the orgranization knows the current path leads to the Dead Wings 2.0? Or does he say with a new coach, a top 5-10 pick and signing a key vet and the addition of Mantha makes us competitive for a playoff spot next year?

One path indicates they know they need to go in a different direction to once again become competitive. The other suggests they are committed to a path that is unsustainable, at least as long as Ken Holland remains GM.

 

[drwings40]

At first we take the high pick. Only three months of losing left.

Trade deadline:

- sell Green for 1st + extras
- sell Vanek for low 1st or two 2nds
- sell Jurco for 3rd-4th
- sell Smith for 4th-5th + cap dump

Summer:
- Fire Blashill, promote Nelson
- sign Vanek back
- bring some kids in.

Draft 2 prospects in every round of 2017 draft.

I don't think that Holland can get a good 1st + extras even for Green. Maybe a late 1st rounder, but two early/mid 2nd rounder seems to be more realistic to me.

...but I agree that it won't happen at all. So whatever.

 

[Mount Suribachi]

I don't think that Holland can get a good 1st + extras even for Green. Maybe a late 1st rounder, but two early/mid 2nd rounder seems to be more realistic to me.

...but I agree that it won't happen at all. So whatever.

Of course he won't get a good 1st for Green. Any team that is going to trade for Green (and I believe he has a NMC clause that he would need to waive) is going to be in the 20-30 range by default of being a contender.

But he will get a 1st for him.

 

[jkutswings]

The only thing I feel confident in is that Holland will keep our #1. It was be pure lunacy for him to trade what will be our highest draft pick since 1991. My guess is they understand they are not drafting an elite talent outside the top of draft.

Everything beyond that seems dubious to me. I can see Holland trying to make one last run for the playoffs next year in the new barn. I can potentially see Blashill being replaced and that again gives Holland reason to think he can get to the playoffs next year.

The end of year press conference is going to be very interesting. Does Holland give some indication that the orgranization knows the current path leads to the Dead Wings 2.0? Or does he say with a new coach, a top 5-10 pick and signing a key vet and the addition of Mantha makes us competitive for a playoff spot next year?

One path indicates they know they need to go in a different direction to once again become competitive. The other suggests they are committed to a path that is unsustainable, at least as long as Ken Holland remains GM.

As long as ownership is ok with him being in charge, I expect an eternity of this approach. But hopefully The Streak ending will change that.

 

[obey86]

Out of curiosity, I decided to look at the 2000-2012 NHL drafts (so a good 13 year stretch) and top 10 drafted defenders.

From 2000-2012, these are the top 10 drafted defenders I believe that most people here would have been comfortable anchoring the Wings top pairing in their primes:

Erik Johnson, 1st overall
Drew Doughty, 2nd overall
Victor Hedman, 2nd overall
Jay Bouwmeester, 3rd overall
Alex Pietrangelo, 4th overall
Adam Larsson, 4th overall
Morgan Rielly, 5th overall
Oliver Ekman-Larsson, 5th overall
Ryan Suter, 7th overall
Dion Phaneuf, 9th overall
Dougie Hamilton, 9th overall
Jacob Trouba, 9th overall

IMO, i'm stretching it with players like Dougie Hamilton, Dion Phaneuf, Adam Larsson, or Jay Bouwmeester being on this list but I included them anyways because I think most people here would include them. Also, I added Morgan Rielly based on my future expectations of him becoming this good.

So over the past 13 years in the top 10, there was an average of 3 defenders total drafted and appears to be an average of 1 great defender drafted. IMO, that puts into perspective:

#1) How few defenders are even drafted with top 10 picks to begin with (only 30% of players picked in the top 10 are defenders).
#2) How much more rare it is to find a great defender in the top 10 than people think. 1 per year.

 

[Mount Suribachi]

Out of curiosity, I decided to look at the 2000-2012 NHL drafts (so a good 13 year stretch) and top 10 drafted defenders.

From 2000-2012, these are the top 10 drafted defenders I believe that most people here would have been comfortable anchoring the Wings top pairing in their primes:

Erik Johnson, 1st overall
Drew Doughty, 2nd overall
Victor Hedman, 2nd overall
Jay Bouwmeester, 3rd overall
Alex Pietrangelo, 4th overall
Adam Larsson, 4th overall
Morgan Rielly, 5th overall
Oliver Ekman-Larsson, 5th overall
Ryan Suter, 7th overall
Dion Phaneuf, 9th overall
Dougie Hamilton, 9th overall
Jacob Trouba, 9th overall

IMO, i'm stretching it with players like Dougie Hamilton, Dion Phaneuf, Adam Larsson, or Jay Bouwmeester being on this list but I included them anyways because I think most people here would include them. Also, I added Morgan Rielly based on my future expectations of him becoming this good.

So over the past 13 years in the top 10, there was an average of 3 defenders total drafted and appears to be an average of 1 great defender drafted. IMO, that puts into perspective:

#1) How few defenders are even drafted with top 10 picks to begin with (only 30% of players picked in the top 10 are defenders).
#2) How much more rare it is to find a great defender in the top 10 than people think. 1 per year.

It would be interesting to see a year by year breakdown on all defenders taken in the top-10, and how we would rank them, ie all-star, 1st/2nd/3rd pairing, bust. Even if you don't get a Doughty, you're still likely to get a good player.

When Pittsburgh had their five consecutive top-5 picks they got Crosby, Malkin, Orpik, Staal and Fleury. Whilst two of these are not like the other three, Orpik, Staal and MAF were still important pieces in them winning their first cup.

 

[obey86]

It would be interesting to see a year by year breakdown on all defenders taken in the top-10, and how we would rank them, ie all-star, 1st/2nd/3rd pairing, bust. Even if you don't get a Doughty, you're still likely to get a good player.

When Pittsburgh had their five consecutive top-5 picks they got Crosby, Malkin, Orpik, Staal and Fleury. Whilst two of these are not like the other three, Orpik, Staal and MAF were still important pieces in them winning their first cup.

Here ya go.

All top 10 drafted defenders from 2000-2012:

Erik Johnson
Drew Doughty
Victor Hedman
Ryan Murray
Jay Bouwmeester
Cam Barker
Jack Johnson
Zach Bogosian
Erik Gudbranson
Rostislav Klesla
Joni Pitkanen
Thomas Hickey
Alex Pietrangelo
Adam Larsson
Griffin Reinhart
Ryan Whitney
Karl Alzner
Luke Schenn
Morgan Rielly
Oliver Ekman-Larsson
Hampus Lindholm
Lars Jonsson
Mike Komisarek
Ryan Suter
Mathew Dumba
Braydon Coburn
Derrick Pouliot
Dion Phaneuf
Ladislav Smid
Brian Lee
Jared Cowen
Dougie Hamilton
Jacob Trouba
Boris Valabik
Jonas Brodin
Keaton Ellerby
Dylan McIlrath
Boris Valabik
Luc Bourdon
Slater Koekkoek

 

[obey86]

Also found this kind of interesting.

From the 2000-2012 drafts (looking at just rounds 1-3):

Of the 10 best defenders in career PPG, 9 of 10 (90%) of them were drafted at pick #14 or later.

0.81 15 Erik Karlsson\karlser01
0.64 43 P.K. Subban\subbapk01
0.63 62 Kris Letang\letankr01
0.61 29 Mike Green\greenmi03
0.60 14 Kevin Shattenkirk\shattke01
0.58 49 Shea Weber\webersh01
0.57 64 Tyson Barrie\barrity01
0.56 38 Roman Josi\josiro01
0.55 54 Duncan Keith\keithdu01
0.55 4 Alex Pietrangelo\pietral01

1st column is PPG, 2nd column is draft pick #

 

[Winger98]

Here ya go.

All top 10 drafted defenders from 2000-2012:

Erik Johnson
Drew Doughty
Victor Hedman
Ryan Murray
Jay Bouwmeester
Cam Barker
Jack Johnson
Zach Bogosian
Erik Gudbranson
Rostislav Klesla
Joni Pitkanen
Thomas Hickey
Alex Pietrangelo
Adam Larsson
Griffin Reinhart
Ryan Whitney
Karl Alzner
Luke Schenn
Morgan Rielly
Oliver Ekman-Larsson
Hampus Lindholm
Lars Jonsson
Mike Komisarek
Ryan Suter
Mathew Dumba
Braydon Coburn
Derrick Pouliot
Dion Phaneuf
Ladislav Smid
Brian Lee
Jared Cowen
Dougie Hamilton
Jacob Trouba
Boris Valabik

A couple of things that stand out. One, outside of a few who had some unfortunate injury issues, there are very few out and out busts in that list. The vast majority are (were) at least solid top4 guys. Two, the guys who were largely looked at as the "safest" bets when they were drafted also seemed to have had the lowest ceilings. This could tie in a bit to your other list with the highest point producers. They weren't seen as "safe" so they slid, but their upsides were higher. Maybe a lesson to take out of this is that it's better to reach a bit than to take the safe pick.

Makes Cholowski more interesting, imo. A bit of an outside pick, I thought some called it a reach, but it makes me think that maybe the ceiling is there.

 

[Frk It]

A couple of things that stand out. One, outside of a few who had some unfortunate injury issues, there are very few out and out busts in that list. The vast majority are (were) at least solid top4 guys. Two, the guys who were largely looked at as the "safest" bets when they were drafted also seemed to have had the lowest ceilings. This could tie in a bit to your other list with the highest point producers. They weren't seen as "safe" so they slid, but their upsides were higher. Maybe a lesson to take out of this is that it's better to reach a bit than to take the safe pick.

Makes Cholowski more interesting, imo. A bit of an outside pick, I thought some called it a reach, but it makes me think that maybe the ceiling is there.

It all depends on what type of player it is. Taking stay at home guys in the top 10-15 is something we have seen a lot less the last few years -- mostly because of the list that obey put together.

 

[obey86]

A couple of things that stand out. One, outside of a few who had some unfortunate injury issues, there are very few out and out busts in that list. The vast majority are (were) at least solid top4 guys. Two, the guys who were largely looked at as the "safest" bets when they were drafted also seemed to have had the lowest ceilings. This could tie in a bit to your other list with the highest point producers. They weren't seen as "safe" so they slid, but their upsides were higher. Maybe a lesson to take out of this is that it's better to reach a bit than to take the safe pick.

Makes Cholowski more interesting, imo. A bit of an outside pick, I thought some called it a reach, but it makes me think that maybe the ceiling is there.

I guess it would depend on what constitutes a bust. Personally, I would consider getting an average at best player at #2 a bust.

 

[Mount Suribachi]

I guess it would depend on what constitutes a bust. Personally, I would consider getting an average at best player at #2 a bust.

If an average player at #2 is a bust, then what does that make a Daigle like pick?

I mean, you'd be gutted if you drafted the next Kyle Quincey with your #2, but at least you've got something

 

[obey86]

If an average player at #2 is a bust, then what does that make a Daigle like pick?

I mean, you'd be gutted if you drafted the next Kyle Quincey with your #2, but at least you've got something

A Daigle pick would also be a bust. I just think there are various degrees of busts. Daigle would be an extreme bust (based on the expectations he had going in) but I still think Kyle Quincey at #2 is a bust....even if he ends up playing a long career as an average at best player. Just less of a bust.

Put it this way, IMO it's a bust if you use a #2 pick on the caliber of player that is available in free agency every offseason. Quincey's are available every offseason for free.

I understand others see the term bust different though.

 

[InjuredChoker]

there seems to be few common things with top 10 pick dman who busted.

medicore hockey sense/skating, offensive production. but they were big. hickey is one of the few exceptions. pouliot might become another.


jonas brodin seems to be missing from that list.

 

[obey86]

there seems to be few common things with top 10 pick dman who busted.

medicore hockey sense/skating, offensive production. but they were big. hickey is one of the few exceptions. pouliot might become another.


jonas brodin seems to be missing from that list.

How good would you consider Brodin?

I get that stats aren't the be all end all, especially for defenders, but he doesn't look like he has provided much offense in his career thus far....never even broken 20 points (although on pace to this year).

I admittedly don't know much about him other than he was a high pick.

 

[InjuredChoker]

i meant that he's missing from the top 10 drafted dman list. he went #10 in 2011.

i don't think he's more than solid top 4dman but one who has shown that he could be more than that.

mcilrath seems to be missing too. and koekkoek, luc bourdon, ellerby.

 

[obey86]

i meant that he's missing from the top 10 drafted dman list. he went #10 in 2011.

i don't think he's more than solid top 4dman but one who has shown that he could be more than that.

mcilrath seems to be missing too. and koekkoek, luc bourdon, ellerby.

hmmm good eye. looks like they are all #10 picks too. I must have somehow accidentally cut them out. oops!

looks like on my database i copied and pasted to pick #9, not 10. i edited the original list.

thanks!

 

[InjuredChoker]

valabik was there but he was taken year(s) before than those other #10s.

anyway, adding those guys only makes that list look uglier.

brodin is good, bourdon could've been (RIP), koekkoek could be though it's not looking too great, the rest are flat out busts.

 

[Frk It]

Missing Brent Burns.