Value of: 1st overall for 3rd and 5th from ott

[WhiskeyYerTheDevils]

First overalls sometimes flop - but almost never when they project to be as good as Lafreniere. In the past 40 years the only instance I can think of of a prospect as good/better who flopped is Daigle. ie - he's a super surefire bet to become a star in this league.

In almost every single draft - at least one of the top 5 prospect flops, if not more. All those names look and sound really good on paper - but there's a big risk at least 1 doesn't pan out. 3 years ago Poolparty was seen as a can't miss prospect, look where he is now?

You're certainly right to think that if the 2 players you pick meet their potential and Lafreniere does too - odds are 2 players > 1 player. But there's too big a risk.

In terms of trade value (which I assume is the point of thread) - first overall certainly has a higher value then 3rd and 5th combined.

I don't expect Lafreniere to flop. He's probably one of the safest 1OA picks in years. But I also don't think he has that high of a ceiling.

Stutzle to me is the highest potential player in the draft, and I would actually be torn between him and Laf 1 for 1.

If you're trading down from 1 to 3+5, you probably have a pretty good idea of who you want there and who will be available.

I'll go on record stating that Stutzle and Rossi will both be high impact NHL players who will collectively be significantly more valuable than Lafreniere on his own.

 

[OmniSens]

Haven't we been through this enough recently? Ottawa keeps their picks.

 

[WhiskeyYerTheDevils]

RNH is a terrible comparison. Lafreniere has been twice as productive as RNH in the CHL.
RNH Draft year: 75 points in 69 games (1.09 P/GP)
Laf Draft year: 112 points in 52 games (2.15 P/GP)
Tavares (1.85 P/GP) or MacKinnon (1.70 P/GP) would be much better comparisons to Lafreniere. Somewhere between them and Patrick Kane.

The Q is a notoriously weak league / easier to produce in.

Here are the top U18 seasons in Q by points per game since 1999:


Here are the top U19 seasons in Q by points per game since 1999:


Like I've said, Lafreniere projects to be a star winger with a very well rounded game, but he's also not the first guy in recent memory to light up the Q. And since he is so old, it really isn't that surprising. His 17 year old season was pretty much in line with guys like Dubois and Huberdeau, who were both late birthdays

Lafreniere is in the realm of Tavares, Stamkos, MacKinnon, Hall, and Kane. I'd call those franchise players.

Not sure I would call Hall a franchise player.

 

[Accelleratii]

I don’t think Lafreniere is quite a McDavid, Dahlin or Crosby. In other words, the gap from 1st to 3rd is not huge and therefore, if I’m Ottawa, I hang on to 3 and 5. They’re going to get two very capable pieces they can build around.

 

[Korpse]

At this point am in the corner of Lafreniere being highly overrated..

I honestly don't see the huge gap between Lafreniere and Byfield/Stützle...

Especially considering his position and age....

I would never do that if I am Ottawa....

Perhaps he is in the sense that his upside may not be all that much higher (if at all) than Stutzle/Byfield. I think the gap is there because Lafreniere is a cant miss type of prospect. I am also in the boat of keeping 3/5 though.

 

[BoardsofCanada]

RNH is a terrible comparison. Lafreniere has been twice as productive as RNH in the CHL.
RNH Draft year: 75 points in 69 games (1.09 P/GP)
Laf Draft year: 112 points in 52 games (2.15 P/GP)

Tavares (1.85 P/GP) or MacKinnon (1.70 P/GP) would be much better comparisons to Lafreniere. Somewhere between them and Patrick Kane. Lafreniere is in the realm of Tavares, Stamkos, MacKinnon, Hall, and Kane. I'd call those franchise players.

RNH had 106 points in 69 games in his draft year.

 

[EXTRAS]

If I'm a competing team like Colorado who has top end talent (mackinnon/rantanen) as well as good young prospect depth (makar/byram/newhook) all ready, I think I'd prefer Lafreniere, but if you're most teams, I think you go with the 3+5 option, if you trust you scouts.

 

[Halla]

I'm curious if Gorton would entertain this if the NYR landed 1OA. Picks 3 & 5 along with another mid-late 1st rounder in this draft would be pretty enticing for a team needing a 2C and some depth at wing.

Ottawa would be pretty dumb to give up 3,5,17ish for 1

 

[Halla]

RNH had 106 points in 69 games in his draft year.

that is not nearly as good as lafrenenie and is a terrible comparison. Lafreneniere actually had a better 16-17 year old season than that as well (105pts in 61 games)

Marner is a better comparable (126pts in 63 games) although laf could turn out to be better. When a kid who had 94pts on the final year of his ELC is the comparable it gives you an idea of how special the prospect is

 

[Halla]

Last 25 1st, 3rd & 5th overall picks.

Jack Hughes	Kirby Dach	Alex Turcotte
Rasmus Dahlin	Jesperi Kotkaniemi	Barrett Hayton
Nico Hischier	Miro Heiskanen	Elias Pettersson
Auston Matthews	Pierre-Luc Dubois	Olli Juolevi
Connor McDavid	Dylan Strome	Noah Hanifin
Aaron Ekblad	Leon Draisaitl	Michael Dal Colle
Nathan MacKinnon	Jonathan Drouin	Elias Lindholm
Nail Yakupov	Alex Galchenyuk	Morgan Rielly
Ryan Nugent-Hopkins	Jonathan Huberdeau	Ryan Strome
Taylor Hall	Erik Gudbranson	Nino Niederreiter
John Tavares	Matt Duchene	Brayden Schenn
Steven Stamkos	Zach Bogosian	Luke Schenn
Patrick Kane	Kyle Turris	Karl Alzner
Erik Johnson	Jonathan Toews	Phil Kessel
Sidney Crosby	Jack Johnson	Carey Price
Alex Ovechkin	Cam Barker	Blake Wheeler
Marc-Andre Fleury	Nathan Horton	Thomas Vanek
Rick Nash	Jay Bouwmeester	Ryan Whitney
Ilya Kovalchuk	Alexander Svitov	Stanislav Chistov
Rick DiPietro	Marian Gaborik	Raffi Torres
Patrik Stefan	Henrik Sedin	Tim Connolly
Vincent Lecavalier	Brad Stuart	Vitaly Vishnevski
Joe Thornton	Olli Jokinen	Eric Brewer
Chris Phillips	J.P. Dumont	Ric Jackman
Bryan Berard	Aki Berg	Daymond Langkow

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

In this instance I would pick Lafreniere.

so did you just give away stamkos for schenn and bogo? or did you turn johnson into toews and kessel lol.

as a leaf fan i think they would say no just because of the recency bias and matthews being >>> dubois and juolevi

 

[Heckler81]

As a Rangers fan, I would do this trade if we won the lottery.

Rangers trade:

#1 overall

Ott trade:

#3
#5
1st round in the 20s

Would Ottawa make that trade?

Rangers biggest need is top end C talent.

 

[charliemurphy]

Ottawa would be pretty dumb to give up 3,5,17ish for 1

Apologies... it was in reference to picks 3 and 5 for 1. Besides, its all for shits and giggles around here.

 

[BradyTkachucky]

As a Rangers fan, I would do this trade if we won the lottery.

Rangers trade:

#1 overall

Ott trade:

#3
#5
1st round in the 20s

Would Ottawa make that trade?

Rangers biggest need is top end C talent.

Absolutely not.

 

[jgimp]

Nah, Ottawa adds. Lafreniere is that good.

No, he’s not. He’s good but not 3/5OA good. Whoever has that pick adds a decent prospect or additional pick.

 

[WhiskeyYerTheDevils]

The Q is a notoriously weak league / easier to produce in. Not every 18 year old comes out dominating the NHL.

Here are the top U18 seasons in Q by points per game since 1999:


Here are the top U19 seasons in Q by points per game since 1999:


Like I've said, Lafreniere projects to be a star winger with a very well rounded game, but he's also not the first guy in recent memory to light up the Q. And since he is so old, it really isn't that surprising. His 17 year old season was pretty much in line with guys like Dubois and Huberdeau, who were both late birthdays



Not sure I would call Hall a franchise player.

 

[StateOfHockey101]

If the wild land #1 oa, I'd trade it along with rask and pateryn for 3 and 5.

This way they can draft a center and go with best available at 5.

 

[Shruggs Peterson]

If the wild land #1 oa, I'd trade it along with rask and pateryn for 3 and 5.

This way they can draft a center and go with best available at 5.

1st overall has more value by itself than adding depth players that make zero sense for Ottawa to add right now.

It is much more appealing for the Sens to fill a hole at C and choose either a winger or D man than trying to trade up.

 

[Crede777]

I think it is unlikely but not impossible for such a trade to occur.

The biggest issue is that at 3 you don't really get a choice between Stutzle or Byfield but are instead left with whichever one LA does not take. While I could see the argument that a GM would consider one of Stutzle or Byfield as potentially equal or better than Lafreniere given age and position (and the fact that Stutzle played in a men's league last season), I think it is unlikely that a GM would view both as equal or better.

If this were #2 and #5 for #1, I think that there's a fair chance that a team would take that trade. But for #3 and #5 I am not so sure.

 

[JimmyG89]

I don't really think Ottawa is in a position to move those two top 5 picks. In fact, depending on what happens after 1-4, with Ottawa taking one of the centers at 3, they could realistically move down a little if a team really wants a player.

This is an organization that really needs to stock up and one top pick is nice, but they need more than that. Stutzle/Byfield and Drysdale is rough to pass on for a team that needs a future 1C and a #1RHD.

Also, whoever lands the #1 pick was pretty close to being a playoff team (sans Montreal and Chicago). If one of the other 6 teams get it, do they want to give that pick for up for guys that are slightly lesser players now? Lafreniere could vault them right into the playoffs next season and for the foreseeable future. If the Rangers get it, I would not make that kind of a move. Take Lafreniere and have the teams top 5 forwards in place for the next 5+ years with Kakko, Panarin, Zibanejad, Kreider, and Lafreniere

 

[member 96824]

Only if you have a guarantee that no matter what, you’re able to keep your job.

I can’t think of a single GM that would survive if that didn’t work out. Then that GM would have to go to Edmonton for a couple years before leaving hockey all together.

 

[SympathyForTheDevils]

The Q is a notoriously weak league / easier to produce in.

Here are the top U18 seasons in Q by points per game since 1999:


Here are the top U19 seasons in Q by points per game since 1999:


Like I've said, Lafreniere projects to be a star winger with a very well rounded game, but he's also not the first guy in recent memory to light up the Q. And since he is so old, it really isn't that surprising. His 17 year old season was pretty much in line with guys like Dubois and Huberdeau, who were both late birthdays



Not sure I would call Hall a franchise player.

Yeah, good thing the NHL exposed those Q scrubs like Crosby, Mackinnon, Richards, Ribeiro and Huberdeau.

By comparison, RNH has the 5th best U18 PPG season in the WHL in the last 20 years, right behind noted NHL superstars Pavel Brendl, Nic Petan, Seth Jarvis and Evander Kane, and right in front of prodigies Nolan Patrick, Jordan Weal, Oleg Saprykin and Hunter Shinkaruk. If only Lafrenière could be in such good company!

Also, I always find it funny that everyone cries about how late-birthdays have an advantage over other players in the draft, the proceed to drop them an entire year, and compare them to players that are all actually older than them. It's particularly nonsensical given that late-bdays tend to outperform their younger cohorts at the NHL level.

Also, everyone who's watched Dubois, Huberdeau and Lafrenière in juniors would tell you that Lafrenière is a significantly better prospect.

 

[GOilers88]

Doesn't make sense for Ottawa to trade away a possible franchise center and another blue chip for a winger. Even one as good as Laf.

If they were loaded down the center maybe it might make some sense.

 

[MagicalRazor]

If the leafs get it . I would do it , The leafs got an elite forward core we need D. I would look to take stutZle or drysdale With 1 of the first rounders . Than trade the other pick 3 or 5 Plus andreass johnnson to a rebuilding team for a solid NHL ready D man

 

[WhiskeyYerTheDevils]

Yeah, good thing the NHL exposed those Q scrubs like Crosby, Mackinnon, Richards, Ribeiro and Huberdeau.

By comparison, RNH has the 5th best U18 PPG season in the WHL in the last 20 years, right behind noted NHL superstars Pavel Brendl, Nic Petan, Seth Jarvis and Evander Kane, and right in front of prodigies Nolan Patrick, Jordan Weal, Oleg Saprykin and Hunter Shinkaruk. If only Lafrenière could be in such good company!

Also, I always find it funny that everyone cries about how late-birthdays have an advantage over other players in the draft, the proceed to drop them an entire year, and compare them to players that are all actually older than them. It's particularly nonsensical given that late-bdays tend to outperform their younger cohorts at the NHL level.

Also, everyone who's watched Dubois, Huberdeau and Lafrenière in juniors would tell you that Lafrenière is a significantly better prospect.

This is not to say he's going to bust, but there have been several guys who have put up comparable seasons who didn't turn into superstars (Drouin, Ehlers, Ribeiro etc).

I will say that I watched a good amount of Huberdeau in juniors and he was pretty dominant, I don't think there was much separating the two.

 

[SympathyForTheDevils]

This is not to say he's going to bust, but there have been several guys who have put up comparable seasons who didn't turn into superstars (Drouin, Ehlers, Ribeiro etc).

I will say that I watched a good amount of Huberdeau in juniors and he was pretty dominant, I don't think there was much separating the two.

Lafrenière is not guaranteed to be an NHL star, of course, like any prospect playing in any league. Though I think you're really stretching the meaning of the word comparable here. Saying Ribeiro was comparable to Lafreniere is like saying Corey Locke was comparable to McDavid as a prospect (Ribeiro is actually kind of a success story considering how much players of this archetype struggle at the NHL level). Ehlers was never really at that level. Drouin was comparable statistically, but he was also playing on the best Q team of the past 20 years.

You're correct that Huberdeau was really great in juniors. But he didn't have as good a shot and struggled to assert himself physically compared to Lafreniere. I'd also argue he benefited a little from being on a fantastic team. I agree that there isn't a ton separating the two, but had they been in the same draft class, Lafreniere would definitely have gone first.