hfboardsuser
Registered User
- Nov 18, 2004
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With all the talk on both this and the main board about the 80s impact on scoring totals, I decided to take a closer look at the real, provable scoring differentials between the 80s and 90s.
For my study, I chose to look at HHOF inductees/candidates who had their rookie seasons from 1980-81 to 1985-86 and played at least five seasons in the 1990s. My rationale was that "special" players are the ones we're arguing about here, so it only makes sense to look at what such players could do across eras. How Joe Blow did in 1985 versus 1995 doesn't matter because Mario Lemieux, for example, is a significantly better player.
There were 18 HHOFers from that period. However, I also included Wayne Gretzky and Adam Oates- Gretzky fell just outside the time period window, and Oates is the highest-scoring player not yet in the HHOF.
Note: In order to ensure consistency, the 90s data below was sampled according to the number of seasons a player played in the 1980s. ie Lemieux played six seasons in the 1980s, and therefore I took the first six he played in the 1990s.
Name|1980s PPG|1990s PPG|% Diff
Mario Lemieux|1.96|1.80|-8%
Steve Yzerman|1.35|1.27|-6%
Doug Gilmour|0.99|1.12|+13%
Pat LaFontaine|1.06|1.59|+50%
Cam Neely|0.83|1.22|+47%
Adam Oates|0.92|1.49|+62%
Ron Francis|1.15|1.09|-5%
Dale Hawerchuk|1.30|1.01|-22%
Joe Mullen|1.15|0.77|-33%
Glenn Anderson|1.11|0.67|-40%
Ray Bourque|1.04|0.91|-12.5%
Jari Kurri|1.38|0.71|-49%
Denis Savard|1.38|0.71|-49%
Mike Gartner|1.04|0.77|-26%
Michel Goulet|1.16|0.76|-34%
Mark Messier|1.22|0.96|-21%
Dino Ciccarelli|1.08|0.84|-22%
Wayne Gretzky|2.39|1.41|-41%
Al MacInnis|0.95|0.88|-7%
Paul Coffey|1.30|0.87|-33%
Mean|--|--|-12%
Now, we can argue/fine tune the methodology further- maybe it doesn't make sense to include players from the first two or three years of the 80s due to age; by the time the mid-90s hit they were already 35+ and were bound to decline regardless of era.
But I think this rough analysis proves what many learned fans have been trying to tell the younger generation for a long time- the era change from the 80s to the 90s did not affect elite talent nearly as much. For comparison's sake, scoring in the NHL dropped from 7.77 GPG in 1984-85 to 5.97 in 1994-95- a decline of 23%.
Would a "normal" player dropped from the 80s struggle to produce in the 90s? Sure, and probably by almost a quarter of their 1980s production. But we've always known HHOFers are different. That's why they're in the Hall. It's not unreasonable to believe exactly what's shown above- that today, Gretzky's scoring would suffer by just 12% (or less).
How does that change Gretzky's career, for example?
Season|Adj Goals|Adj Assists|Adj Pts
1980-81|48|96|144
1981-82|81|106|187
1982-83|62|110|172
1983-84|77|103|180
1984-85|64|119|183
1985-86|46|143|189
1986-87|55|106|161
1987-88|35|96|131
1988-89|48|100|148
1989-90|35|90|125
Career|787|1727|2514
Goals is obviously the biggest difference; Gretzky would dip just under Howe but still remain a solid 2nd place in history. The Great One would still comfortably retain the career assist mark- bolstered by the fact players 2-7 on the list also played in the 80s- and would still be 900+ points clear of anyone else in that category.
Most of all, while the above doesn't prove anything conclusively, it should reinforce the idea that when it comes to challenging Gretzky/Lemieux, 150 points just isn't going to do it- and neither will 160, 170. Only a player with multiple 180-point seasons would be worthy, and there's no one in the league today who could come close.
For my study, I chose to look at HHOF inductees/candidates who had their rookie seasons from 1980-81 to 1985-86 and played at least five seasons in the 1990s. My rationale was that "special" players are the ones we're arguing about here, so it only makes sense to look at what such players could do across eras. How Joe Blow did in 1985 versus 1995 doesn't matter because Mario Lemieux, for example, is a significantly better player.
There were 18 HHOFers from that period. However, I also included Wayne Gretzky and Adam Oates- Gretzky fell just outside the time period window, and Oates is the highest-scoring player not yet in the HHOF.
Note: In order to ensure consistency, the 90s data below was sampled according to the number of seasons a player played in the 1980s. ie Lemieux played six seasons in the 1980s, and therefore I took the first six he played in the 1990s.
Mario Lemieux|1.96|1.80|-8%
Steve Yzerman|1.35|1.27|-6%
Doug Gilmour|0.99|1.12|+13%
Pat LaFontaine|1.06|1.59|+50%
Cam Neely|0.83|1.22|+47%
Adam Oates|0.92|1.49|+62%
Ron Francis|1.15|1.09|-5%
Dale Hawerchuk|1.30|1.01|-22%
Joe Mullen|1.15|0.77|-33%
Glenn Anderson|1.11|0.67|-40%
Ray Bourque|1.04|0.91|-12.5%
Jari Kurri|1.38|0.71|-49%
Denis Savard|1.38|0.71|-49%
Mike Gartner|1.04|0.77|-26%
Michel Goulet|1.16|0.76|-34%
Mark Messier|1.22|0.96|-21%
Dino Ciccarelli|1.08|0.84|-22%
Wayne Gretzky|2.39|1.41|-41%
Al MacInnis|0.95|0.88|-7%
Paul Coffey|1.30|0.87|-33%
Mean|--|--|-12%
Now, we can argue/fine tune the methodology further- maybe it doesn't make sense to include players from the first two or three years of the 80s due to age; by the time the mid-90s hit they were already 35+ and were bound to decline regardless of era.
But I think this rough analysis proves what many learned fans have been trying to tell the younger generation for a long time- the era change from the 80s to the 90s did not affect elite talent nearly as much. For comparison's sake, scoring in the NHL dropped from 7.77 GPG in 1984-85 to 5.97 in 1994-95- a decline of 23%.
Would a "normal" player dropped from the 80s struggle to produce in the 90s? Sure, and probably by almost a quarter of their 1980s production. But we've always known HHOFers are different. That's why they're in the Hall. It's not unreasonable to believe exactly what's shown above- that today, Gretzky's scoring would suffer by just 12% (or less).
How does that change Gretzky's career, for example?
1980-81|48|96|144
1981-82|81|106|187
1982-83|62|110|172
1983-84|77|103|180
1984-85|64|119|183
1985-86|46|143|189
1986-87|55|106|161
1987-88|35|96|131
1988-89|48|100|148
1989-90|35|90|125
Career|787|1727|2514
Goals is obviously the biggest difference; Gretzky would dip just under Howe but still remain a solid 2nd place in history. The Great One would still comfortably retain the career assist mark- bolstered by the fact players 2-7 on the list also played in the 80s- and would still be 900+ points clear of anyone else in that category.
Most of all, while the above doesn't prove anything conclusively, it should reinforce the idea that when it comes to challenging Gretzky/Lemieux, 150 points just isn't going to do it- and neither will 160, 170. Only a player with multiple 180-point seasons would be worthy, and there's no one in the league today who could come close.