1968-2017 - Lowest Scoring Stanley Cup Champions (GvE and TvE Analysis)

[quoipourquoi]

The purpose of this thread is to provide two lists based on the post-1967 statistical record:

• The worst scoring playoff teams to win the Stanley Cup (GvE)
• The playoff teams most reliant on a goaltending to win the Stanley Cup (TvE)

To create these lists, I will be looking at performance vs. expectation. If you're unfamiliar with EvE, GvE, and TvE; here is a brief overview, using the example of the 1996 Eastern Conference Finals:


Error Rate vs. Expectation (EvE)

John Vanbiesbrouck allows 14 goals on 224 shots (14/224=.063) in a playoff series against a Pittsburgh Penguins team that scores 362 goals on 2645 shots (362/2645=.137) in the regular season. John Vanbiesbrouck allows 45.7% (.063/.137) of what a goaltender would be expected to allow against the Pittsburgh Penguins. John Vanbiesbrouck's EvE is 45.7 in this playoff series.


Goals vs. Expectation (GvE)

The Florida Panthers score 20 goals of support against the Pittsburgh Penguins' two goaltenders in this series over the goaltenders' combined 418 minutes (418/60=6.97 games) for a total of 2.87 goals-per-game. The Pittsburgh Penguins' goaltenders allow 275 goals in their combined 4931 minutes (4931/60=82.18) in the regular season for a total of 3.35 goals-allowed-average. The Florida Panthers score 85.8% (2.87/3.35) of what a team would be expected to score against the Pittsburgh Penguins. The Florida Panthers' GvE is 85.8 in this playoff series.


Threshold vs. Expectation (TvE)

The Florida Panthers score 20 goals of support against the Pittsburgh Penguins' two goaltenders in this series while allowing 224 shots. In order to break even, the Florida Panthers could allow 20 goals on these 224 shots (20/224=.089) against a Pittsburgh Penguins team that scores 362 goals on 2645 shots (362/2645=.137) in the regular season. The Florida Panthers need to allow only 65.2% (.089/.137) of what a team would be expected to allow against the Pittsburgh Penguins in order to reach the threshold. The Florida Panthers' TvE is 65.2 in this playoff series.


I will only be looking at GvE and TvE in this thread. GvE weighted each round by minutes will provide us with the first list: the worst scoring Stanley Cup Champions (performance through four rounds, 1980-2017; performance through three rounds, 1968-1979). TvE weighted each round by shots against will provide us with the second list: the teams most reliant on a goaltending performance to win the Stanley Cup (performance through four rounds, 1980-2017; performance through three rounds, 1968-1979).

Important caveats. While empty net goals are removed from the calculation of playoff goal support, they are not removed from the calculation of regular season shooting percentage. If there comes a point when regular season GF minus ENGs becomes more readily available, I will gladly tweak the calculation to reflect this data. As of now, this would require thumbing through every box score of every regular season game for every team since 1967. Also to the extent that shots allowed is affected by goaltending performance or occurring in the state of New Jersey, I have made no subjective adjustment.

Most important caveat. GvE and TvE look at the series as a whole, rather than a series of individual games in a race for four victories.


Lowest Scoring Stanley Cup Champions
(Goals vs. Expectation, 1968-2017)

Rank	Year	Team	Total GvE	R1 GvE	R2 GvE	R3 GvE	R4 GvE
#1	1986	Montreal	75.34	95.54	57.49	85.80	77.74
#2	1993	Montreal	85.60	84.13	106.51	83.59	72.24
#3	1975	Philadelphia	95.99	97.23	94.78	96.55
#4	2006	Carolina	99.31	80.44	119.93	110.67	90.29
#5	1974	Philadelphia	99.62	137.62	89.44	86.01
#6	1999	Dallas	101.27	83.61	103.53	129.99	82.13
#7	2003	New Jersey	101.33	78.48	98.32	106.67	114.31
#8	1989	Calgary	102.04	118.01	127.47	65.69	97.30
#9	1997	Detroit	103.40	77.64	89.28	104.68	159.27
#10	1982	New York	105.19	104.49	109.40	93.48	111.76
#11	2004	Tampa Bay	106.90	86.23	143.62	124.69	84.32
#12	2013	Chicago	106.95	118.63	96.13	110.91	105.87
#13	1994	New York	107.84	178.94	130.68	79.35	85.90
#14	2007	Anaheim	107.95	101.40	102.66	103.82	126.21
#15	2009	Pittsburgh	108.88	92.82	130.55	170.03	65.91
#16	2000	New Jersey	109.31	122.33	96.14	124.46	98.44
#17	2015	Chicago	109.62	120.67	120.92	108.02	91.35
#18	1969	Montreal	110.59	139.71	78.87	134.24
#19	1979	Montreal	110.62	138.21	99.27	102.79
#20	2001	Colorado	111.64	134.69	81.03	128.16	118.09
#21	1987	Edmonton	112.88	152.22	121.02	79.65	104.03
#22	1995	New Jersey	114.03	98.02	87.66	123.20	155.89
#23	1990	Edmonton	114.27	94.50	140.89	116.31	118.70
#24	1992	Pittsburgh	116.85	93.92	123.01	131.89	132.01
#25	1991	Pittsburgh	117.86	92.43	106.24	131.75	143.99
#26	2012	Los Angeles	118.05	97.94	184.64	108.27	100.61
#27	1984	Edmonton	121.60	132.66	115.04	126.17	120.63
#28	1996	Colorado	122.20	123.38	111.47	139.77	113.99
#29	2011	Boston	122.32	88.00	169.45	105.77	147.90
#30	2016	Pittsburgh	123.44	156.08	115.14	129.23	98.92
#31	2017	Pittsburgh	124.79	173.53	132.85	91.57	114.89
#32	2014	Los Angeles	125.66	144.72	104.91	141.20	109.08
#33	2002	Detroit	127.70	136.59	122.47	156.95	86.65
#34	2010	Chicago	127.71	103.61	137.47	117.45	148.63
#35	1978	Montreal	127.76	146.50	140.91	104.78
#36	1980	New York	129.90	133.91	125.09	127.29	134.02
#37	1976	Montreal	130.07	102.39	146.73	136.98
#38	1968	Montreal	130.45	132.07	147.69	107.35
#39	1977	Montreal	132.45	132.42	132.23	132.81
#40	1988	Edmonton	133.16	132.53	117.91	127.10	157.31
#41	2008	Detroit	136.06	142.57	213.31	121.02	100.19
#42	1998	Detroit	136.30	150.08	134.45	127.86	131.66
#43	1981	New York	137.58	147.74	115.07	142.39	155.04
#44	1983	New York	139.51	130.98	133.60	178.57	97.90
#45	1971	Montreal	141.23	152.56	157.40	117.15
#46	1973	Montreal	141.24	120.06	108.53	191.02
#47	1985	Edmonton	143.24	83.40	123.39	193.42	136.06
#48	1972	Boston	154.39	139.01	217.56	124.85
#49	1970	Boston	197.84	175.97	215.40	212.60

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

Teams Most Reliant on Goaltending to Win the Stanley Cup
(Threshold vs. Expectation, 1968-2017

Rank	Year	Team	Total TvE	R1 TvE	R2 TvE	R3 TvE	R4 TvE
#1	1993	Montreal	78.52	64.32	89.84	84.67	81.74
#2	1986	Montreal	87.19	101.45	68.00	94.72	93.73
#3	1974	Philadelphia	90.24	176.77	75.83	58.99
#4	2015	Chicago	90.44	95.13	93.29	93.92	75.69
#5	2011	Boston	96.41	85.35	122.93	96.08	90.96
#6	1969	Montreal	97.28	151.30	61.35	109.91
#7	2017	Pittsburgh	97.50	106.01	79.31	103.18	105.57
#8	2004	Tampa Bay	98.73	77.06	132.59	107.43	85.45
#9	2003	New Jersey	99.76	84.54	111.76	82.64	122.93
#10	2001	Colorado	100.50	173.59	83.01	88.54	93.72
#11	2007	Anaheim	101.43	82.53	100.10	92.15	146.84
#12	1999	Dallas	101.65	123.22	95.25	112.31	82.00
#13	2006	Carolina	103.09	92.06	131.57	109.93	88.27
#14	1971	Montreal	104.01	77.98	173.82	76.54
#15	1996	Colorado	104.31	134.22	99.60	91.60	92.45
#16	2013	Chicago	105.99	134.81	89.85	111.63	98.08
#17	1975	Philadelphia	106.07	149.67	101.37	85.92
#18	1992	Pittsburgh	106.25	81.88	88.03	145.57	141.68
#19	2016	Pittsburgh	106.26	123.69	80.17	120.49	106.63
#20	1997	Detroit	107.38	89.28	94.42	111.71	142.96
#21	2000	New Jersey	107.74	103.94	112.62	112.13	101.51
#22	1991	Pittsburgh	107.82	85.23	90.79	124.82	132.61
#23	2012	Los Angeles	108.41	68.54	155.42	113.91	118.53
#24	1980	New York	108.52	169.48	88.95	84.80	114.40
#25	2009	Pittsburgh	108.52	77.83	153.81	163.30	65.70
#26	1976	Montreal	108.65	109.39	94.17	131.05
#27	1983	New York	111.07	113.25	133.00	116.57	73.66
#28	1990	Edmonton	111.27	94.54	117.77	122.14	115.83
#29	1994	New York	112.47	217.66	145.86	70.97	88.34
#30	1984	Edmonton	112.82	120.00	105.65	130.82	103.62
#31	1973	Montreal	114.01	85.29	103.58	165.12
#32	1989	Calgary	116.49	131.12	148.45	109.67	84.30
#33	2014	Los Angeles	116.68	111.08	97.14	130.66	130.54
#34	1982	New York	116.88	127.49	119.67	90.26	128.65
#35	1998	Detroit	117.71	155.77	105.68	84.18	133.41
#36	1979	Montreal	118.78	133.73	93.68	144.25
#37	2010	Chicago	119.26	112.76	116.80	89.33	150.46
#38	1987	Edmonton	121.13	191.33	131.47	101.54	82.99
#39	1995	New Jersey	121.55	109.23	82.87	147.23	174.56
#40	2002	Detroit	124.63	131.72	104.85	139.11	117.17
#41	1985	Edmonton	132.80	70.96	120.54	196.27	113.73
#42	2008	Detroit	134.50	112.06	209.73	121.61	113.18
#43	1978	Montreal	135.10	177.44	164.90	85.12
#44	1988	Edmonton	137.69	151.40	106.03	120.55	178.50
#45	1968	Montreal	140.76	134.73	138.47	151.82
#46	1977	Montreal	141.96	172.29	123.62	132.56
#47	1972	Boston	157.01	145.37	267.68	89.67
#48	1981	New York	157.92	189.44	125.73	184.46	157.08
#49	1970	Boston	161.27	128.63	170.83	221.34

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

Reminder: none of the above charts is a reflection of goaltending performance itself - only the demand placed on the goaltenders relative to goal support and shots allowed (TvE).


The 1970 Boston Bruins placed the least amount of pressure on their goaltending in order to win the Stanley Cup, and all three of their series ranked in the top-10 highest scoring (vs. expectation) series from a post-expansion Stanley Cup Champion.

• 217.56 - 1972 Boston (vs. St. Louis)
• 215.40 - 1970 Boston (vs. Chicago)
• 213.31 - 2008 Detroit (vs. Colorado)
• 212.60 - 1970 Boston (vs. St. Louis)
• 193.42 - 1985 Edmonton (vs. Chicago)
• 191.02 - 1973 Montreal (vs. Chicago)
• 178.57 - 1983 New York (vs. Boston)
• 184.64 - 2012 Los Angeles (vs. St. Louis)
• 178.94 - 1994 New York (vs. New York)
• 175.97 - 1970 Boston (vs. New York)

The 1986 Montreal Canadiens were easily the worst scoring Stanley Cup Champion of the post-expansion era, but due to their shot prevention and opposition strength, the 1993 Montreal Canadiens still had the more difficult threshold. Two of the 1986 Montreal Canadiens' series ranked in the top-10 least productive (vs. expectation) series from a post-expansion Stanley Cup Champion.

• 57.49 - 1986 Montreal (vs. Hartford)
• 65.69 - 1989 Calgary (vs. Chicago)
• 65.91 - 2009 Pittsburgh (vs. Detroit)
• 72.24 - 1993 Montreal (vs. Los Angeles)
• 77.64 - 1997 Detroit (vs. St. Louis)
• 77.74 - 1986 Montreal (vs. Calgary)
• 78.48 - 2003 New Jersey (vs. Boston)
• 78.87 - 1969 Montreal (vs. Boston)
• 79.35 - 1994 New York (vs. New Jersey)
• 79.65 - 1987 Edmonton (vs. Detroit)

The 1993 Montreal Canadiens and the 2015 Chicago Blackhawks are the only two Stanley Cup Champions in the post-expansion era to have had a Threshold vs. Expectation (TvE) that necessitated an above-average goaltending performance in all four series.

The 1994 New York Rangers are the only team to have individual series that rank in both the top-10 highest AND lowest scoring (vs. expectation).


I'll be posting a second thread looking at the threshold necessary for reaching the Stanley Cup Finals in the four-round era some time in the next few days - GvE and TvE, but strictly looking at 1980-2017 (plus the 1979 New York Rangers).

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