18/19 MGMT thread VII. WARNING POST #25

[Peter10]

What is an "OT" post?

Off topic

 

[nowhereman]

Hodgson was a good pick whose career was derailed by injuries which were entirely unpredictable. Karlsson absolutely wasn't on anyone's radar at #10. Either you don't follow the draft very closely, or you are intentionally posting stupid things here again in a childish attempt to derail this thread.

It’s cute that you think this thread has ever been on the rails.

 

[timw33]

Just a reminder that it takes 2 blocked people to bring peace to your lives at HFCanucks.

 

[Melvin]

Great work @Melvin! Thanks for taking the time and putting it visually so we can use it to make informed decisions.
I do wonder if games played is a good indicator. Like mentioned before, bad teams will still have to dress a full roster, so some bad players will hit 250 games by default, especially on a perennial bottom feeder like ours (look at our blueline and bottom 6 forwards and think of how many undeserved games guys like Pouliot and Megna put up over the years). Would points be a better indicator? I know points will skew the result to favor forwards, but generally speaking good players put up more points than bad players, so it might be a way to separate the crappy picks that for some reason gets lots of games (ie: Sam Bennett, 271 games), from actual good players (ie: Leon Draisatl 298 games), where they are both worth the same in your model.
Or maybe use both variables? Sum up games played with points? That way you take into consideration both the longevity and skill of a player?

I have done a similar sort of analysis for points. It doesn't make as much of a difference as you might think, and you are just trading one problem for another. In this case, under-rating defensemen to a large degree.

I think 250 games is a pretty good benchmark because while it's pretty easy for crappy players to get to 100 games, 250 games is actually quite a lot. Derrick Pouliot is currently at 164, and has finally found himself in the press-box. It is possible he still gets to 250 but it would probably take another team losing their minds and playing him every day like we did. From what I've found, players like this tend to crap out in the 100-200 game range, before they end up in Europe or some such.

Still, I'm constantly trying to find better ways to measure this so if I get anywhere I will post it.

Thanks @Ronning On Empty for re-posting here. I feared those posts were buried under the garbage that followed.

 

[Pastor Of Muppetz]

Looking back at numerous mock drafts, Hodgson was firmly in the top 10 in every mock draft in 2008, whereas Karlsson was firmly in the late 20's, or even in the 2nd round by some people. Ottawa baffled people by taking him at 15, and the sens fan base were skeptical of him at first.

Tkachuk was the obvious choice to take at the time of the draft, and Vancouver baffled people by Not taking him at 5.

Petterrsson wasn't ranked at #5 either,...If Benning had taken the BPA's there would be no Boeser or Pettersson on the team.

Is this the Gillis nostalgia thread now?

 

[forty47seven]

Who really cares about Gillis' drafting at this point? The key takeaway from Melvin's data is what the baseline for the Canucks' drafting results over the last half decade is given where they've been picking. If the baseline is 8-9 NHLers in 5 drafts, then that's the benchmark, not what a previous GM did (a GM who largely lost his job because the drafting wasn't good enough during his tenure). And given Benning's indisputable deficiencies in every single other aspect of being a GM, his drafting better be a hell of a lot better than the baseline.

My biggest take away was the value lost by making bad trades when they should've been stockpiling. Vancouver, the team with the 3rd worst record from 2014-2018, was 8th in expected value. The other bottom 3 teams, Arizona and Buffalo, were 1st and 2nd in EV with roughly 2 more expected players than the Canucks. The entire 2014 draft class had an EV of just over 2. So by trading away a multitude of mid-round picks, this management team basically lost a 2 1st round pick draft class worth of potential return.

 

[Serac]

Petterrsson wasn't ranked at #5 either,...If Benning had taken the BPA's there would be no Boeser or Pettersson on the team.

Is this the Gillis nostalgia thread now?

Pettersson was consistantly ranked in the top 10 throughout rankings, and his skill set was obviously high alongside the players rated near him.

What exactly are you trying to cherry pick here ?

 

[Pastor Of Muppetz]

Pettersson was consistantly ranked in the top 10 throughout rankings, and his skill set was obviously high alongside the players rated near him.

What exactly are you trying to cherry pick here ?

and juolevi wasn't ranked in the top 10..?

 

[Serac]

and juolevi wasn't ranked in the top 10..?

In relation to Tkachuk, the skill level of Juolevi was a tier below, and pretty much everybody knew this.

 

[carrotshirt]

Petterrsson wasn't ranked at #5 either,...If Benning had taken the BPA's there would be no Boeser or Pettersson on the team.

Is this the Gillis nostalgia thread now?

It’s your ilk that always drags Gillis’ corpse out to distract from Benning’s incompetence, not the people that see forest AND trees.

 

[Pastor Of Muppetz]

In relation to Tkachuk, the skill level of Juolevi was a tier below, and pretty much everybody knew this.

Looking back on 1st rounders, do you take the consensus picks or what we have?

 

[carrotshirt]

Benning drafted for position when he picked Juolevi, which he was kind enough to announce before the draft.

 

[Serac]

Looking back on 1st rounders, do you take the consensus picks or what we have?

You guys sure like your strawmen huh ?

 

[y2kcanucks]

Petterrsson wasn't ranked at #5 either,...If Benning had taken the BPA's there would be no Boeser or Pettersson on the team.

Is this the Gillis nostalgia thread now?

Except there wasn't as much consensus in 2017 as there was in 2016. In 2016 there was a clear top 5. In 2017 after the top 2 there wasn't much consensus at all.

If Benning had made the trades he wanted to make we wouldn't have Boeser either.

 

[Pastor Of Muppetz]

You guys sure like your strawmen huh ?

Who were your 1st round selections in the past 4 years?...Nylander,Pasternak,Tkachuck,Pettersson,Hughes..?

 

[Serac]

Who were your 1st round selections in the past 4 years?...Nylander,Pasternak,Tkachuck,Pettersson,Hughes..?

In those drafts, Nylander, McCann, Tkachuk, Vilardi, Dobson actually.

Again, what does this have to do with the topic at hand ? I'm not saying I'm some draft guru (like Jim Benning is), but are you seriously going to pretend that Tkachuk wasn't the obvious choice to make that draft ?

 

[opendoor]

I agree that expecting a hit on every top pick isn't really a fair, or even reasonable, standard for an NHL GM. It's nearly impossible task. But when you're as bad at the rest of your job as Benning is, then you essentially need to be superhuman at that one thing to make up for it, so in that light it's not really an unfair criticism of the job he's doing.

The only tenable argument for supporting him is that his drafting ability is so far beyond everyone else that it makes up for him being absolutely abysmal at pro scouting, negotiating contracts, trading players, etc. So it's not out of line to question why the Canucks aren't seeing results that reflect that.

 

[Pastor Of Muppetz]

In those drafts, Nylander, McCann, Tkachuk, Vilardi, Dobson actually.

Again, what does this have to do with the topic at hand ? I'm not saying I'm some draft guru (like Jim Benning is), but are you seriously going to pretend that Tkachuk wasn't the obvious choice to make that draft ?

My first choice was PLD..and Tkachuk 2nd....and was just as shocked as everyone else when they selected OJ..However, OJ was no more of a reach than EP was..Canucks wanted a D-man or a Centre in 2016 (Tkachuk was a winger..also a questionable skater)...I can see the reasoning behind the pick...and what did they pick in 2017-18?..a Centre,and a d-man...I think they'll take a winger this upcoming draft.

 

[Bojack Horvatman]

Just a reminder that it takes 2 blocked people to bring peace to your lives at HFCanucks.

I did it yesterday. I don't know why it took me so long.

 

[Bojack Horvatman]

My first choice was PLD..and Tkachuk 2nd....and was just as shocked as everyone else when they selected OJ..However, OJ was no more of a reach than EP was..Canucks wanted a D-man or a Centre in 2016 (Tkachuk was a winger..also a questionable skater)...I can see the reasoning behind the pick...and what did they pick in 2017-18?..a Centre,and a d-man...I think they'll take a winger this upcoming draft.

As long as he is BPA, I'm okay with picking a winger. We still lack depth in most positions though.

 

[Serac]

My first choice was PLD..and Tkachuk 2nd....and was just as shocked as everyone else when they selected OJ..However, OJ was no more of a reach than EP was..Canucks wanted a D-man or a Centre in 2016 (Tkachuk was a winger..also a questionable skater)...I can see the reasoning behind the pick...and what did they pick in 2017-18?..a Centre,and a d-man...I think they'll take a winger this upcoming draft.

Juolevi was way more of a reach than Pettersson.

Again, the skillset of Pettersson was never in question. But Tkachuk was without a doubt the best player available in 2016 when we picked.

Us selecting Juolevi literally left commentators going "whoa" and the arena the draft was held in, filled with fans of all teams, had an audible "gasp".


Literally everyone knew that we made a mistake passing on Tkachuk. You only draft for need when the player in the position you desire is about on par with the player in the position that's less desirable.

If Benning and our scouts determined that Tkachuk and Juolevi were on par skill-wise, then that's a colossal failure on their part.

 

[Hit the post]

I actually think Juolevi will help transform our power play into something pretty effective. We’ve always lacked a good power play QB at the point. Imagine him distributing the puck to Boeser or EP.

 

[Canucker]

I agree that expecting a hit on every top pick isn't really a fair, or even reasonable, standard for an NHL GM. It's nearly impossible task. But when you're as bad at the rest of your job as Benning is, then you essentially need to be superhuman at that one thing to make up for it, so in that light it's not really an unfair criticism of the job he's doing.

The only tenable argument for supporting him is that his drafting ability is so far beyond everyone else that it makes up for him being absolutely abysmal at pro scouting, negotiating contracts, trading players, etc. So it's not out of line to question why the Canucks aren't seeing results that reflect that.

Along with his aversion to try and stockpile draft picks....for a guy who was seen as something of an "Amateur Draft Guru" and who was generally seen as a guy who was going to come in a re-stock the pipeline, he sure hasn't tried to gather draft picks like someone who has that reputation.

 

[Bojack Horvatman]

Pettersson's rank fell due to his skinnyness. If he wasn't. 150 pounds, we probably wouldn't of been in the position to draft him in the first place.

 

[Canucks1096]

I actually think Juolevi will help transform our power play into something pretty effective. We’ve always lacked a good power play QB at the point. Imagine him distributing the puck to Boeser or EP.

The job will go to Hughes.

Juolevi will be on the second unit if Edler is gone